Fluctuation analysis of lung function as a predictor of long-term response to beta2-agonists

The response to beta(2)-agonists differs between asthmatics and has been linked to subsequent adverse events, even death. Possible determinants include beta(2)-adrenoceptor genotype at position 16, lung function and airway hyperresponsiveness. Fluctuation analysis provides a simple parameter alpha measuring the complex correlation properties of day-to-day peak expiratory flow. The present study investigated whether alpha predicts clinical response to beta(2)-agonist treatment, taking into account other conventional predictors. Analysis was performed on previously published twice-daily peak expiratory flow measurements in 66 asthmatic adults over three 6-month randomised order treatment periods: placebo, salbutamol and salmeterol. Multiple linear regression was used to determine the association between alpha during the placebo period and response to treatment (change in the number of days with symptoms), taking into account other predictors namely beta(2)-adrenoceptor genotype, lung function and its variability, and airway hyperresponsiveness. The current authors found that alpha measured during the placebo period considerably improved the prediction of response to salmeterol treatment, taking into account genotype, lung function or its variability, or airway hyperresponsiveness. The present study provides further evidence that response to beta(2)-agonists is related to the time correlation properties of lung function in asthma. The current authors conclude that fluctuation analysis of lung function offers a novel predictor to identify patients who may respond well or poorly to treatment.

Development of a screening tool predicting the transition from acute to chronic low back pain for patients in a GP setting: protocol of a multinational prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: Low back pain (LBP) is by far the most prevalent and costly musculoskeletal problem in our society today. Following the recommendations of the Multinational Musculoskeletal Inception Cohort Study (MMICS) Statement, our study aims to define outcome assessment tools for patients with acute LBP and the time point at which chronic LBP becomes manifest and to identify patient characteristics which increase the risk of chronicity. METHODS: Patients with acute LBP will be recruited from clinics of general practitioners (GPs) in New Zealand (NZ) and Switzerland (CH). They will be assessed by postal survey at baseline and at 3, 6, 12 weeks and 6 months follow-up. Primary outcome will be disability as measured by the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI); key secondary endpoints will be general health as measured by the acute SF-12 and pain as measured on the Visual Analogue Scale (VAS). A subgroup analysis of different assessment instruments and baseline characteristics will be performed using multiple linear regression models. This study aims to examine: 1. Which biomedical, psychological, social, and occupational outcome assessment tools are identifiers for the transition from acute to chronic LBP and at which time point this transition becomes manifest. 2. Which psychosocial and occupational baseline characteristics like work status and period of work absenteeism influence the course from acute to chronic LBP. 3. Differences in outcome assessment tools and baseline characteristics of patients in NZ compared with CH. DISCUSSION: This study will develop a screening tool for patients with acute LBP to be used in GP clinics to access the risk of developing chronic LBP. In addition, biomedical, psychological, social, and occupational patient characteristics which influence the course from acute to chronic LBP will be identified. Furthermore, an appropriate time point for follow-ups will be given to detect this transition. The generalizability of our findings will be enhanced by the international perspective of this study. TRIAL REGISTRATION: [Clinical Trial Registration Number, ACTRN12608000520336].

Differences across health care systems in outcome and cost-utility of surgical and conservative treatment of chronic low back pain: a study protocol

BACKGROUND: There is little evidence on differences across health care systems in choice and outcome of the treatment of chronic low back pain (CLBP) with spinal surgery and conservative treatment as the main options. At least six randomised controlled trials comparing these two options have been performed; they show conflicting results without clear-cut evidence for superior effectiveness of any of the evaluated interventions and could not address whether treatment effect varied across patient subgroups. Cost-utility analyses display inconsistent results when comparing surgical and conservative treatment of CLBP. Due to its higher feasibility, we chose to conduct a prospective observational cohort study. METHODS: This study aims to examine if1. Differences across health care systems result in different treatment outcomes of surgical and conservative treatment of CLBP2. Patient characteristics (work-related, psychological factors, etc.) and co-interventions (physiotherapy, cognitive behavioural therapy, return-to-work programs, etc.) modify the outcome of treatment for CLBP3. Cost-utility in terms of quality-adjusted life years differs between surgical and conservative treatment of CLBP.This study will recruit 1000 patients from orthopaedic spine units, rehabilitation centres, and pain clinics in Switzerland and New Zealand. Effectiveness will be measured by the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) at baseline and after six months. The change in ODI will be the primary endpoint of this study.Multiple linear regression models will be used, with the change in ODI from baseline to six months as the dependent variable and the type of health care system, type of treatment, patient characteristics, and co-interventions as independent variables. Interactions will be incorporated between type of treatment and different co-interventions and patient characteristics. Cost-utility will be measured with an index based on EQol-5D in combination with cost data. CONCLUSION: This study will provide evidence if differences across health care systems in the outcome of treatment of CLBP exist. It will classify patients with CLBP into different clinical subgroups and help to identify specific target groups who might benefit from specific surgical or conservative interventions. Furthermore, cost-utility differences will be identified for different groups of patients with CLBP. Main results of this study should be replicated in future studies on CLBP.

The international spine registry SPINE TANGO: status quo and first results

With an official life time of over 5 years, Spine Tango can meanwhile be considered the first international spine registry. In this paper we present an overview of frequency statistics of Spine Tango for demonstrating the genesis of questionnaire development and the constantly increasing activity in the registry. Results from two exemplar studies serve for showing concepts of data analysis applied to a spine registry. Between 2002 and 2006, about 6,000 datasets were submitted by 25 centres. Descriptive analyses were performed for demographic, surgical and follow-up data of three generations of the Spine Tango surgery and follow-up forms. The two exemplar studies used multiple linear regression models to identify potential predictor variables for the occurrence of dura lesions in posterior spinal fusion, and to evaluate which covariates influenced the length of hospital stay. Over the study period there was a rise in median patient age from 52.3 to 58.6 years in the Spine Tango data pool and an increasing percentage of degenerative diseases as main pathology from 59.9 to 71.4%. Posterior decompression was the most frequent surgical measure. About one-third of all patients had documented follow-ups. The complication rate remained below 10%. The exemplar studies identified "centre of intervention" and "number of segments of fusion" as predictors of the occurrence of dura lesions in posterior spinal fusion surgery. Length of hospital stay among patients with posterior fusion was significantly influenced by "centre of intervention", "surgeon credentials", "number of segments of fusion", "age group" and "sex". Data analysis from Spine Tango is possible but complicated by the incompatibility of questionnaire generations 1 and 2 with the more recent generation 3. Although descriptive and also analytic studies at evidence level 2++ can be performed, findings cannot yet be generalised to any specific country or patient population. Current limitations of Spine Tango include the low number and short duration of follow-ups and the lack of sufficiently detailed patient data on subgroup levels. Although the number of participants is steadily growing, no country is yet represented with a sufficient number of hospitals. Nevertheless, the benefits of the project for the whole spine community become increasingly visible.

Interrelation of peri-operative morbidity and ASA class assignment in patients undergoing gynaecological surgery

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to estimate intra- and post-operative risk using the American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) classification which is an important predictor of an intervention and of the entire operating programme. STUDY DESIGN: In this retrospective study, 4435 consecutive patients undergoing elective and emergency surgery at the Gynaecological Clinic of the University Hospital of Zurich were included. The ASA classification for pre-operative risk assessment was determined by an anaesthesiologist after a thorough physical examination. We observed several pre-, intra- and post-operative parameters, such as age, body-mass-index, duration of anaesthesia, duration of surgery, blood loss, duration of post-operative stay, complicated post-operative course, morbidity and mortality. The investigation of different risk factors was achieved by a multiple linear regression model for log-transformed duration of hospitalisation. RESULTS: Age and obesity were responsible for a higher ASA classification. ASA grade correlates with the duration of anaesthesia and the duration of the surgery itself. There was a significant difference in blood loss between ASA grades I (113+/-195 ml) and III (222+/-470 ml) and between classes II (176+/-432 ml) and III. The duration of post-operative hospitalisation could also be correlated with ASA class. ASA class I=1.7+/-3.0 days, ASA class II=3.6+/-4.3 days, ASA class III=6.8+/-8.2 days, and ASA class IV=6.2+/-3.9 days. The mean post-operative in-hospital stay was 2.5+/-4.0 days without complications, and 8.7+/-6.7 days with post-operative complications. Multiple linear regression model showed that not only the ASA classification contained an important information for the duration of hospitalisation. Parameters such as age, class of diagnosis, post-operative complications, etc. also have an influence on the duration of hospitalisation. CONCLUSION: This study shows that the ASA classification can be used as a good and early available predictor for the planning of an intervention in gynaecological surgery. The ASA classification helps the surgeon to assess the peri-operative risk profile of which important information can be derived for the planning of the operation programme.

Waiting times for cataract surgery in ten European countries: an analysis using data from the SHARE survey

AIMS: To assess waiting times for cataract surgery and their acceptance in European countries, and to find explanatory, country-specific health indicators. METHODS: Using data from the survey of health, ageing and retirement in Europe (SHARE), waiting times for cataract surgery of 245 respondents in ten countries were analysed with the help of linear regression. The influence of four country specific health indicators on waiting times was studied by multiple linear regression. The influence of waiting time and country on the wish to have surgery performed earlier was determined through logistic regression. Additional information was obtained for each country from opinion leaders in the field of cataract surgery. RESULTS: Waiting times differed significantly (p<0.001) between the ten analysed European countries. The length of wait was significantly influenced by the total expenditure on health (p<0.01) but not by the other country specific health indicators. The wish to have surgery performed earlier was determined by the length of wait (p<0.001) but not by the country where surgery was performed. CONCLUSION: The length of wait is influenced by the total expenditure on health, but not by the rate of public expenditure on health, by the physician density or by the acute bed density. The wish to have surgery performed earlier depends on the length of wait for surgery and is not influenced by the country.

Metabolic predictors of inflammation, adhesion, and coagulability in healthy younger-aged adults

Elevated levels of inflammatory biomarkers are associated with the pathophysiology of cardiovascular diseases and are predictors of cardiovascular events. The objective of this study was to determine the unique contributions of metabolic factors as predictors of inflammation (C-reactive protein (CRP) and interleukin-6 (IL-6)), adhesion (soluble intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (sICAM-1)), and coagulation (D-dimer) in healthy younger-aged adults. Participants were 83 women and 92 men (mean age 30.04 years, s.d. +/- 4.8, range 22-39) of normal weight to moderate obese weight (mean BMI 24.4 kg/m(2), s.d. +/- 3.35, range 17-32). The primary data analytical approaches included Pearson correlation and multiple linear regression. Circulating levels of CRP, IL-6, sICAM-1, and D-dimer were determined in plasma. Higher levels of CRP were independently associated with higher BMI, a greater waist-to-hip ratio, female gender, and higher triglycerides (P < 0.001). Higher IL-6 levels were independently associated with a greater waist-to-hip ratio (P < 0.01). Higher levels of sICAM-1 were independently associated with higher BMI, higher triglycerides, and lower insulin resistance (P < 0.001). Higher D-dimer levels were independently associated with higher BMI and being female (P < 0.001). Having a higher BMI was most consistently associated with elevated biomarkers of inflammation, adhesion, and coagulation in this sample of healthy younger-aged adults, although female gender, insulin resistance, and lipid levels were also related to the biomarkers. The findings provide insight into the adverse cardiovascular risk associated with elevated body weight in younger adults.

Molecular Surface Features in Modeling the HIV-1 RT Inhibitory Activity of 2-(2,6-Disubstituted phenyl)-3-(substituted pyrimidin-2-yl)-thiazolidin-4-ones

The human immunodeficiency virus-1 reverse transcriptase inhibitory activity of 2-(2,6-disubstituted phenyl)-3-(substituted pyrimidin-2-yl)-thiazolidin-4-ones have been analyzed using combinatorial protocol in multiple linear regression (CP-MLR) with several electronic and molecular surface area features of the compounds obtained from Molecular Operating Environment (MOE) software. The study has indicated the role of different charged molecular surface areas in modeling the inhibitory activity of the compounds. The derived models collectively suggested that the compounds should be compact without bulky substitutions on its peripheries for better HIV-1 RT inhibitory activity. It also emphasized the necessity of hydrophobicity and compact structural features for their activity. The scope of the descriptors identified for these analogues have been verified by extending the dataset with different 2-(disubstituted phenyl)-3-(substituted pyridin-2-yl)-thiazolidin-4-ones. The joint analysis of extended dataset highlighted the information content of identified descriptors in modeling the HIV-1 RT inhibitory activity of the compounds.

CP-MLR Directed QSAR Studies on the Antimycobacterial Activity of Functionalised Alkenols - Topological Descriptors in Modeling the Activity

The antimycobacterial activity of nitro/ acetamido alkenol derivatives and chloro/ amino alkenol derivatives has been analyzed through combinatorial protocol in multiple linear regression (CP-MLR) using different topological descriptors obtained from Dragon software. Among the topological descriptor classes considered in the study, the activity is correlated with simple topological descriptors (TOPO) and more complex 2D autocorrelation descriptors (2DAUTO). In model building the descriptors from other classes, that is, empirical, constitutional, molecular walk counts, modified Burden eigenvalues and Galvez topological charge indices have made secondary contribution in association with TOPO and / or 2DAUTO classes. The structure-activity correlations obtained with the TOPO descriptors suggest that less branched and saturated structural templates would be better for the activity. For both the series of compounds, in 2DAUTO the activity has been correlated to the descriptors having mass, volume and/ or polarizability as weighting component. In these two series of compounds, however, the regression coefficients of the descriptors have opposite arithmetic signs with respect to one another. Outwardly these two series of compounds appear very similar. But in terms of activity they belong to different segments of descriptor-activity profiles. This difference in the activity of these two series of compounds may be mainly due to the spacing difference between the C1 (also C6) substituents and rest of the functional groups in them.

Topological Descriptors in Modeling the Antimalarial Activity of 4-(3’, 5’-Disubstitutedanilino)quinolines

Two series of closely related antimalarial agents, 7-chloro-4-(3’,5’-disubstitutedanilino) quinolines, have been analyzed using Combinatorial Protocol in Multiple Linear Regression (CP-MLR) for the structure-activity relations with more than 450 topological descriptors for each set. The study clearly suggested that 3’- and 5’- substituents of the anilino moiety map different domains in the activity space. While one domain favors the compact structural frames having aromatic, heterocyclic ring(s) substituted with closely spaced F, NO2 and O functional groups, the other prefers structural frames enriched with unsaturation, loops, branches, electronic content and devoid of carbonyl function. Also, this study gives an indication in favour of the electron rich centres in the aniline substituent groups for better antimalarial activity; an observation in line with several of the previous reports too. The models developed and the participating descriptors suggest that the substituent groups of the 4-anilino moiety of the 4-(3’, 5’-disubstitutedanilino)quinolines hold scope for further modification in the optimisation of the antimalarial activity.

Modern sea surface productivity and temperature estimations off Chile as detected by coccolith accumulation rates

Recent coccoliths from 74 surface sediment samples recovered from the southeastern Pacific off Chile were examined quantitatively to investigate modern regional gradients of sea surface productivity and temperature. All findings are based on coccolith accumulation rates. Therefore an approach was designed to estimate recent sedimentation rates based on 210Pb and bulk chemistry analyses of the same set of surface samples. Highest total coccolith accumulation rates were found off north-central Chile, where seasonal upwelling takes place. Based on a multiple linear regression between calculated coccolith accumulation rates and World Ocean Atlas derived sea surface temperatures, a calibration model to reconstruct annual average temperatures of the uppermost 75 m of the water column is provided. The model was cross-validated and the SST estimates were compared with SST observed and SST estimates based on diatoms and planktonic foraminifera, showing a good correlation.

Assessing vegetation cover and biomass in restored erosion areas in Iceland using SPOT satellite data

Due to highly erodible volcanic soils and a harsh climate, livestock grazing in Iceland has led to serious soil erosion on about 40% of the country's surface. Over the last 100 years, various revegetation and restoration measures were taken on large areas distributed all over Iceland in an attempt to counteract this problem. The present research aimed to develop models for estimating percent vegetation cover (VC) and aboveground biomass (AGB) based on satellite data, as this would make it possible to assess and monitor the effectiveness of restoration measures over large areas at a fairly low cost. Models were developed based on 203 vegetation cover samples and 114 aboveground biomass samples distributed over five SPOT satellite datasets. All satellite datasets were atmospherically corrected, and digital numbers were converted into ground reflectance. Then a selection of vegetation indices (VIs) was calculated, followed by simple and multiple linear regression analysis of the relations between the field data and the calculated VIs. Best results were achieved using multiple linear regression models for both %VC and AGB. The model calibration and validation results showed that R2 and RMSE values for most VIs do not vary very much. For percent VC, R2 values range between 0.789 and 0.822, leading to RMSEs ranging between 15.89% and 16.72%. For AGB, R2 values for low-biomass areas (AGB < 800 g/m2) range between 0.607 and 0.650, leading to RMSEs ranging between 126.08 g/m2 and 136.38 g/m2. The AGB model developed for all areas, including those with high biomass coverage (AGB > 800 g/m2), achieved R2 values between 0.487 and 0.510, resulting in RMSEs ranging from 234 g/m2 to 259.20 g/m2. The models predicting percent VC generally overestimate observed low percent VC and slightly underestimate observed high percent VC. The estimation models for AGB behave in a similar way, but over- and underestimation are much more pronounced. These results show that it is possible to estimate percent VC with high accuracy based on various VIs derived from SPOT satellite data. AGB of restoration areas with low-biomass values of up to 800 g/m2 can likewise be estimated with high accuracy based on various VIs derived from SPOT satellite data, whereas in the case of high biomass coverage, estimation accuracy decreases with increasing biomass values. Accordingly, percent VC can be estimated with high accuracy anywhere in Iceland, whereas AGB is much more difficult to estimate, particularly for areas with high-AGB variability.

Cochrane and non-Cochrane systematic reviews in leading orthodontic journals: a quality paradigm?

The aims of this study were to assess and compare the methodological quality of Cochrane and non-Cochrane systematic reviews (SRs) published in leading orthodontic journals and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (CDSR) using AMSTAR and to compare the prevalence of meta-analysis in both review types. A literature search was undertaken to identify SRs that consisted of hand-searching five major orthodontic journals [American Journal of Orthodontics and Dentofacial Orthopedics, Angle Orthodontist, European Journal of Orthodontics, Journal of Orthodontics and Orthodontics and Craniofacial Research (February 2002 to July 2011)] and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews from January 2000 to July 2011. Methodological quality of the included reviews was gauged using the AMSTAR tool involving 11 key methodological criteria with a score of 0 or 1 given for each criterion. A cumulative grade was given for the paper overall (0-11); an overall score of 4 or less represented poor methodological quality, 5-8 was considered fair and 9 or greater was deemed to be good. In total, 109 SRs were identified in the five major journals and on the CDSR. Of these, 26 (23.9%) were in the CDSR. The mean overall AMSTAR score was 6.2 with 21.1% of reviews satisfying 9 or more of the 11 criteria; a similar prevalence of poor reviews (22%) was also noted. Multiple linear regression indicated that reviews published in the CDSR (P < 0.01); and involving meta-analysis (β = 0.50, 95% confidence interval 0.72, 2.07, P < 0.001) showed greater concordance with AMSTAR.

Predictors of depressed mood 12 months after injury. Contribution of self-efficacy and social support

Abstract Purpose: There is evidence that depressed mood and perception of pain are related in patients with chronic illness. However, how individual resources such as self-efficacy and social support play a role in this association remains unclear. The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of both variables as either moderator or mediator. Method: In a longitudinal study, 274 injured workers (M = 43.24 years) were investigated. Data were collected on sociodemographics, depressed mood, pain, social support, and self-efficacy at three months post-injury, and depressed mood one year post-injury. Results: Hierarchical multiple linear regression analyses revealed that pain (β = 0.14; p < 0.01) and social support (β = -0.18; p < 0.001) were significant predictors of depressed mood. Self-efficacy moderated the relationship of pain (β = -0.12; p < 0.05) and depressed mood after one year. Lower self-efficacy in combination with pain had a stronger impact than higher self-efficacy and pain on depressed mood. Social support did not moderate the association. Conclusions: Self-efficacy for managing pain is important in the development of depressed mood. According to the results of this study, we suggest that the detection of low social support and low self-efficacy might be important in long-term rehabilitation process. Implications for Rehabilitation Risk for depressed mood one year after an accident is high: One in five workers report depressed mood. Protective factors for depressed mood in injured workers needs to be considered in the rehabilitation. Focusing on resources like social support and self-efficacy could be protective against depressed mood. The early detection of low social support and low self-efficacy might be important in long-term rehabilitation processes

Learning to drive: learners' self-reported cognitive failure level predicts driving instructor's observation rating of driving performance

OBJECTIVES Evidence increases that cognitive failure may be used to screen for drivers at risk. Until now, most studies have relied on driving learners. This exploratory pilot study examines self-report of cognitive failure in driving beginners and error during real driving as observed by driving instructors. METHODS Forty-two driving learners of 14 driving instructors filled out a work-related cognitive failure questionnaire. Driving instructors observed driving errors during the next driving lesson. In multiple linear regression analysis, driving errors were regressed on cognitive failure with the number of driving lessons as an estimator of driving experience controlled. RESULTS Higher cognitive failure predicted more driving errors (p < .01) when age, gender and driving experience were controlled in analysis. CONCLUSIONS Cognitive failure was significantly associated with observed driving errors. Systematic research on cognitive failure in driving beginners is recommended.