Flow-R, a model for susceptibility mapping of debris flows and other gravitational hazards at a regional scale

The development of susceptibility maps for debris flows is of primary importance due to population pressure in hazardous zones. However, hazard assessment by process-based modelling at a regional scale is difficult due to the complex nature of the phenomenon, the variability of local controlling factors, and the uncertainty in modelling parameters. A regional assessment must consider a simplified approach that is not highly parameter dependant and that can provide zonation with minimum data requirements. A distributed empirical model has thus been developed for regional susceptibility assessments using essentially a digital elevation model (DEM). The model is called Flow-R for Flow path assessment of gravitational hazards at a Regional scale (available free of charge under http://www.flow-r.org) and has been successfully applied to different case studies in various countries with variable data quality. It provides a substantial basis for a preliminary susceptibility assessment at a regional scale. The model was also found relevant to assess other natural hazards such as rockfall, snow avalanches and floods. The model allows for automatic source area delineation, given user criteria, and for the assessment of the propagation extent based on various spreading algorithms and simple frictional laws. We developed a new spreading algorithm, an improved version of Holmgren's direction algorithm, that is less sensitive to small variations of the DEM and that is avoiding over-channelization, and so produces more realistic extents. The choices of the datasets and the algorithms are open to the user, which makes it compliant for various applications and dataset availability. Amongst the possible datasets, the DEM is the only one that is really needed for both the source area delineation and the propagation assessment; its quality is of major importance for the results accuracy. We consider a 10 m DEM resolution as a good compromise between processing time and quality of results. However, valuable results have still been obtained on the basis of lower quality DEMs with 25 m resolution.

In-situ X-ray micro-diffraction studies of heterogeneous interfaces between cementitious materials and geological formations

In the present study the challenge of analyzing complex micro X-ray diffraction (microXRD) patterns from cement–clay interfaces has been addressed. In order to extract the maximum information concerning both the spatial distribution and the crystal structure type associated with each of the many diffracting grains in heterogeneous, polycrystalline samples, an approach has been developed in which microXRD was applied to thin sections which were rotated in the X-ray beam. The data analysis, performed on microXRD patterns collected from a filled vein of a cement–clay interface from the natural analogue in Maqarin (Jordan), and a sample from a two-year-old altered interface between cement and argillaceous rock, demonstrate the potential of this method.

{\it Hox\/} genes and specification of regional identity in the axial skeleton: Analysis of the individual and combined mutant phenotypes of the paralogous group 4 murine {\it Hox\/} genes; {\it hoxa\/}-4, {\it hoxb\/}-4 and {\it hoxd\/}-4

The Hox gene products are transcription factors involved in specifying regional identity along the anteroposterior body axis. In Drosophila, where these genes are known as HOM-C (Homeotic-complex) genes and where they have been most extensively studied, they are expressed in restricted domains along the anteroposterior axis with different anterior limits. Genetic analysis of a large number of gain- and loss-of-function alleles of these genes has revealed that these genes are important in specifying segmental identity at their anterior limits of expression. Furthermore, there is a functional dominance of posterior genes over anterior genes, such that posterior genes can dominantly specify their developmental programs in spite of the expression of more anterior genes in the same segment. In the mouse, there are four clusters of HOM-C genes, called Hox genes. Thus, there may be up to four genes, called paralogs, that are more highly homologous to each other and to their Drosophila homolog than they are to the other mouse Hox genes. The single mutants for two paralogous genes, hoxa-4 and hoxd-4, presented in this dissertation, are similar to several other mouse Hox mutants in that they show partial, incompletely penetrant homeotic transformations of vertebrae at their anterior limit of expression. These mutants were then bred with hoxb-4 mutants (Ramirez-Solis, et al. 1993) to generate the three possible double mutant combinations as well as the triple mutant. The skeletal phenotypes of these group 4 Hox compound mutants displayed clear alterations in regional identity, such that a nearly complete transformation towards the morphology of the first cervical vertebra occurs. These results suggest a certain degree of functional redundancy among paralogous genes in specifying regional identity. Furthermore, there was a remarkable dose-dependent increase in the number of vertebrae transformed to a first cervical vertebra identity, including the second through the fifth cervical vertebrae in the triple mutant. Thus, these genes are required in a larger anteroposterior domain than is revealed by the single mutant phenotypes alone, such that multiple mutations in these genes result in transformations of vertebrae that are not at their anterior limit of expression. ^

Three “Bali Deliverables” for more Food Security

As the clock is ticking for a positive outcome at the Ninth WTO Ministerial Conference to be held in Bali in December 2013, agricultural negotiators are scrambling to find solutions to issues such as tariff-rate quota (TRQ) administration and export competition in order to improve trade flows. The main issue seems to be whether WTO rules applying to public stockpiles in developing countries need to be changed or temporarily suspended as a means to enhance national food security. This paper is based on a note submitted to the ICTSD-IPC Expert Group “Meeting on Agriculture and Food Security – Policy Options for MC9 and beyond” (Geneva, June 2013). It lists the policy instruments impacting on global, national and (urban and rural) household food security – “The Food Security Tool Box” – and asks which immediate decisions the WTO Ministers might take in this field despite the political difficulties such as continued agro-dumping practices or the “land grab” issue. Three such “deliverables” are outlined: (i) regional and “virtual” food security schemes could be allowed to provide reserves to other countries without violating the obligation to “form an integral part of a food security programme identified in national legislation” (Agreement on Agriculture, Annex II, para 3); (ii) TRQ under-fills could be improved by mandatory enquiries into low fill rate situations; and (iii) World Food Program (WFP) and other non-commercial food purchases could be exempted from export restrictions and prohibitions. High ambitions for Bali seem to be misplaced. A more realistic yet real progress could restore the dwindling credibility of the WTO as a forum for trade negotiations.

Avoidable hospitalizations in Switzerland: a small area analysis on regional variation, density of physicians, hospital supply and rurality.

BACKGROUND Avoidable hospitalizations (AH) are hospital admissions for diseases and conditions that could have been prevented by appropriate ambulatory care. We examine regional variation of AH in Switzerland and the factors that determine AH. METHODS We used hospital service areas, and data from 2008-2010 hospital discharges in Switzerland to examine regional variation in AH. Age and sex standardized AH were the outcome variable, and year of admission, primary care physician density, medical specialist density, rurality, hospital bed density and type of hospital reimbursement system were explanatory variables in our multilevel poisson regression. RESULTS Regional differences in AH were as high as 12-fold. Poisson regression showed significant increase of all AH over time. There was a significantly lower rate of all AH in areas with more primary care physicians. Rates increased in areas with more specialists. Rates of all AH also increased where the proportion of residences in rural communities increased. Regional hospital capacity and type of hospital reimbursement did not have significant associations. Inconsistent patterns of significant determinants were found for disease specific analyses. CONCLUSION The identification of regions with high and low AH rates is a starting point for future studies on unwarranted medical procedures, and may help to reduce their incidence. AH have complex multifactorial origins and this study demonstrates that rurality and physician density are relevant determinants. The results are helpful to improve the performance of the outpatient sector with emphasis on local context. Rural and urban differences in health care delivery remain a cause of concern in Switzerland.

Screening for complex healing processes and psychological intervention in injured individuals

Introduction Injured individuals face a high risk for the development of psychological symptoms such as depression or anxiety, which influences early return to work after an accident. So far, it is unclear to which extent early psychological interventions can improve the ability to return to work. Purpose of the study The aim of the study was to investigate whether an improvement of the treatment-triage (by the screening questionnaire work and health [FAB]) influences early return to work and well being in injured individuals. Methods The study sample consists of injured individuals with different mental health-related or work-related disabilities after an accident. Participants are included eight weeks after an accident. Participants are randomly assigned to the intervention or to the control group. The intervention is an individualized psychotherapy consisting of cognitive-behavioral therapy and work related topics in an individual setting. Well being and work related actors are assessed at baseline and after six months. Results The recruitment is still ongoing. The preliminary results of this randomized controlled study will be presented at the conference. Conclusion An individualized psychotherapy might have the potential to improve the rehabilitation process in injured individuals and improve the ability to return to work.

Enhancing Food Sovereignty and Food Security through the Revitalization of Indigenous Knowledge: Experiences from the Bolivian Andes

Endogenous development is defined as development that values primarily locally available resources and the way people organized themselves for that purpose. It is a dynamic and evolving concept that also embraces innovations and complementation from other than endogenous sources of knowledge; however, only as far as they are based on mutual respect and the recognition of cultural and socioeconomic self-determination of each of the parties involved. Experiences that have been systematized in the context of the BioAndes Program are demonstrating that enhancing food security and food sovereignty on the basis of endogenous development can be best achieved by applying a ‘biocultural’ perspective: This means to promote and support actions that are simultaneously valuing biological (fauna, flora, soils, or agrobiodiversity) and sociocultural resources (forms of social organization, local knowledge and skills, norms, and the related worldviews). In Bolivia, that is one of the Latin-American countries with the highest levels of poverty (79% of the rural population) and undernourishment (22% of the total population), the Program BioAndes promotes food sovereignty and food security by revitalizing the knowledge of Andean indigenous people and strengthening their livelihood strategies. This starts by recognizing that Andean people have developed complex strategies to constantly adapt to highly diverse and changing socioenvironmental conditions. These strategies are characterized by organizing the communities, land use and livelihoods along a vertical gradient of the available eco-climatic zones; the resulting agricultural systems are evolving around the own sociocultural values of reciprocity and mutual cooperation, giving thus access to an extensive variety of food, fiber and energy sources. As the influences of markets, competition or individualization are increasingly affecting the life in the communities, people became aware of the need to find a new balance between endogenous and exogenous forms of knowledge. In this context, BioAndes starts by recognizing the wealth and potentials of local practices and aims to integrate its actions into the ongoing endogenous processes of innovation and adaptation. In order to avoid external impositions and biases, the program intervenes on the basis of a dialogue between exogenous, mainly scientific, and indigenous forms of knowledge. The paper presents an analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of enhancing endogenous development through a dialogue between scientific and indigenous knowledge by specifically focusing on its effects on food sovereignty and food security in three ‘biocultural’ rural areas of the Bolivian highlands. The paper shows how the dialogue between different forms of knowledge evolved alongside the following project activities: 1) recuperation and renovation of local seeds and crop varieties (potato – Solanum spp., quinoa – Chenopodium quinoa, cañahua – Chenopodium pallidicaule); 2) support for the elaboration of community-based norms and regulations for governing access and distribution of non-timber forest products, such as medicinal, fodder, and construction plants; 3) revitalization of ethnoveterinary knowledge for sheep and llama breeding; 4) improvement of local knowledge about the transformation of food products (sheep-cheese, lacayote – Cucurbita sp. - jam, dried llama meat, fours of cañahua and other Andean crops). The implementation of these activities fostered the community-based livelihoods of indigenous people by complementing them with carefully and jointly designed innovations based on internal and external sources of knowledge and resources. Through this process, the epistemological and ontological basis that underlies local practices was made visible. On this basis, local and external actors started to jointly define a renewed concept of food security and food sovereignty that, while oriented in the notions of well being according to a collectively re-crafted world view, was incorporating external contributions as well. Enabling and hindering factors, actors and conditions of these processes are discussed in the paper.

Sensitivity of the WRF model to PBL parametrisations and nesting techniques: evaluation of wind storms over complex terrain

Simulating surface wind over complex terrain is a challenge in regional climate modelling. Therefore, this study aims at identifying a set-up of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) model that minimises system- atic errors of surface winds in hindcast simulations. Major factors of the model configuration are tested to find a suitable set-up: the horizontal resolution, the planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterisation scheme and the way the WRF is nested to the driving data set. Hence, a number of sensitivity simulations at a spatial resolution of 2 km are carried out and compared to observations. Given the importance of wind storms, the analysis is based on case studies of 24 historical wind storms that caused great economic damage in Switzerland. Each of these events is downscaled using eight different model set-ups, but sharing the same driving data set. The results show that the lack of representation of the unresolved topography leads to a general overestimation of wind speed in WRF. However, this bias can be substantially reduced by using a PBL scheme that explicitly considers the effects of non-resolved topography, which also improves the spatial structure of wind speed over Switzerland. The wind direction, although generally well reproduced, is not very sensitive to the PBL scheme. Further sensitivity tests include four types of nesting methods: nesting only at the boundaries of the outermost domain, analysis nudging, spectral nudging, and the so-called re-forecast method, where the simulation is frequently restarted. These simulations show that restricting the freedom of the model to develop large-scale disturbances slightly increases the temporal agreement with the observations, at the same time that it further reduces the overestimation of wind speed, especially for maximum wind peaks. The model performance is also evaluated in the outermost domains, where the resolution is coarser. The results demonstrate the important role of horizontal resolution, where the step from 6 to 2 km significantly improves model performance. In summary, the combination of a grid size of 2 km, the non-local PBL scheme modified to explicitly account for non-resolved orography, as well as analysis or spectral nudging, is a superior combination when dynamical downscaling is aimed at reproducing real wind fields.

Linking livelihood strategies with a regional level landscape mosaic to explore trade-offs between forest conservation and human wellbeing in a Madagascar biodiversity hotspot

The north-eastern escarpment of Madagascar contains the island’s last remaining large-scale humid forest massifs surrounded by diverse small-scale agricultural mosaics. There is high deforestation mainly caused by shifting cultivation practiced by local land users to produce upland rice for subsistence. Today, large protected areas restrict land users’ access to forests to collect wood and other forest products. Moreover, they are no more able to expand their cultivated land, which leads to shorter shifting cultivation cycles and decreasing plot sizes for irrigated rice and cash crop cultivation. Cash crop production of clove and vanilla is exposed to risks such as extreme inter-annual price fluctuations, pests and cyclones. In the absence of work opportunities, agricultural extension services and micro-finance schemes people are stuck in a poverty trap. New development strategies are needed to mitigate the trade-offs between forest conservation and human well-being. As landscape composition and livelihood strategies vary across the region, these strategies need to be spatially differentiated to avoid implementing generic solutions, which do not fit the local context. However, up to date, little is known about the spatial patterns of shifting cultivation and other land use systems at the regional level. This is mainly due to the high spatial and temporal dynamics inherent to shifting cultivation, which makes it difficult to monitor the dynamics of this land use system with remote sensing methods. Furthermore, knowledge about land users’ livelihood strategies and the risks and opportunities they face stems from very few local case studies. To overcome this challenge, firstly, we used remote sensing data and a landscape mosaic approach to delineate the main landscape types at the regional level. Secondly, we developed a land user typology based on socio-ecological data from household surveys in 45 villages spread throughout the region. Combining the land user typology with the landscape mosaic map allowed us to reveal spatial patterns of the interaction between landscapes and people and to better understand the trade-offs between forest conservation and local wellbeing. While shifting cultivation systems are being transformed into more intensive permanent agricultural systems in many countries around the globe, Madagascar seems to be an exception to this trend. Linking land cover information to human-environmental interactions over large areas is crucial to designing policies and to inform decision making for a more sustainable development of this resource-rich but poverty-prone context.

Stable carbon and oxygen isotopes in tree rings show physiological responses of Pericopsis elata to precipitation in the Congo Basin

In equatorial regions, where tree rings are less distinct or even absent, the response of forests to high-frequency climate variability is poorly understood. We measured stable carbon and oxygen isotopes in anatomically distinct, annual growth rings of four Pericopsis elata trees from a plantation in the Congo Basin, to assess their sensitivity to recorded changes in precipitation over the last 50 y. Our results suggest that oxygen isotopes have high common signal strength (EPS = 0.74), and respond to multi-annual precipitation variability at the regional scale, with low δ18O values (28–29‰) during wetter conditions (1960–1970). Conversely, δ13C are mostly related to growth variation, which in a light-demanding species are driven by competition for light. Differences in δ13C values between fast- and slow-growing trees (c. 2‰), result in low common signal strength (EPS = 0.37) and are driven by micro-site conditions rather than by climate. This study highlights the potential for understanding the causes of growth variation in P. elata as well as past hydroclimatic changes, in a climatically complex region characterized by a bimodal distribution in precipitation.

Assessing the Environmental Protection Agency's guidelines for cumulative risk assessment: Are they suitable for state agencies and EPA regional offices?

In the field of health risk analysis, cumulative risk assessment (CRA) is a necessary, although undeniably more complex approach to understanding the mixture of stressors, whether chemical or psychosocial, that exist in our environment, in all the pathways through which the chemicals may evolve—air, soil, or water, as well as the accumulation of these exposures over time. Related, or attached to the developing awareness of scientists understanding this mix of combined health effects is the burgeoning of the environmental justice movement, in which educated community advocates and even affected community members have called attention to evidence of a higher pollution burden in minority and/or lower SES communities. The intention of this paper is to 1) examine the development and understanding of CRA, primarily by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; 2) to assess several states agencies and some EPA regional offices' interpretation of CRA, again based primarily on EPA guidance, and 3) to analyze how CRA might be refined in its implementation—giving some cues as to how the EPA may more effectively interact with communities interested in CRA.^

Development of combined micro -preparation, separation, and mass spectrometry methods and application in the microdialysis study of neuropeptide metabolism

Two sets of mass spectrometry-based methods were developed specifically for the in vivo study of extracellular neuropeptide biochemistry. First, an integrated micro-concentration/desalting/matrix-addition device was constructed for matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization mass spectrometry (MALDI MS) to achieve attomole sensitivity for microdialysis samples. Second, capillary electrophoresis (CE) was incorporated into the above micro-liquid chromatography (LC) and MALDI MS system to provide two-dimensional separation and identification (i.e. electrophoretic mobility and molecular mass) for the analysis of complex mixtures. The latter technique includes two parts of instrumentation: (1) the coupling of a preconcentration LC column to the inlet of a CE capillary, and (2) the utilization of a matrix-precoated membrane target for continuous CE effluent deposition and for automatic MALDI MS analysis (imaging) of the CE track.^ Initial in vivo data reveals a carboxypeptidase A (CPA) activity in rat brain involved in extracellular neurotensin metabolism. Benzylsuccinic acid, a CPA inhibitor, inhibited neurotensin metabolite NT1-12 formation by 70%, while inhibitors of other major extracellular peptide metabolizing enzymes increased NT1-12 formation. CPA activity has not been observed in previous in vitro experiments. Next, the validity of the methodology was demonstrated in the detection and structural elucidation of an endogenous neuropeptide, (L)VV-hemorphin-7, in rat brain upon ATP stimulation. Finally, the combined micro-LC/CE/MALDI MS was used in the in vivo metabolic study of peptide E, a mu-selective opioid peptide with 25 amino acid residues. Profiles of 88 metabolites were obtained, their identity being determined by their mass-to-charge ratio and electrophoretic mobility. The results indicate that there are several primary cleavage sites in vivo for peptide E in the release of its enkephalin-containing fragments. ^

Odontodisplasia regional : caso clínico

La odontodisplasia regional, también denominada diente fantasma o detención localizada del desarrollo dental, es una anomalía estructural del desarrollo, compleja y rara. Su etiología es desconocida y no presenta un patrón hereditario, aunque se han considerado factores locales como alteraciones vasculares y traumatismos locales. Puede afectar ambas denticiones: temporal y permanente; existe una anormal aposición dentinaria, que a su vez está detenida precozmente. Se encuentran afectados todos los componentes histológicos del órgano dentario y radiográficamente el aspecto fantasma es típico: raíces cortas, coronas que semejan cáscaras y aspecto dismórfico general. Se recibieron estudios radiográficos correspondientes a una niña de 10 años derivada del Hospital Materno Infantil de la ciudad de Azul, provincia de Buenos Aires. Luego del análisis de signos radiográficos se determina el diagnóstico de odontodisplasia regional en los cuadrantes superior e inferior izquierdos. Se sugiere la investigación de antecedentes traumáticos al presentarse la lesión en dos cuadrantes isolaterales.

Nuevo enlace ferrovial interprovincial Santa Fe-Entre Ríos : Una oportunidad de escala regional

La provincia de Santa Fe, Argentina, se encuentra en una localización estratégica. La potencialidad de la Hidrovía Paraná-Paraguay, los corredores bioceánicos viales y la red existente de trazados ferroviarios le confieren gran dinamismo a su integración económica, social, cultural y política, no sólo hacia el interior del propio territorio, sino también en relación a las demás provincias y más allá de los confines nacionales. La región capital, cuyo núcleo es la ciudad de Santa Fe, se encuentra caracterizada por factores realmente dinámicos: el riesgo hídrico que es intrínseco del área, la intensificación de los flujos económicos pasantes, los procesos de concentración demográfica y la creciente interdependencia entre ciudades, como es el casode Santa Fe y Paraná (capital de la vecina provincia de Entre Ríos), bajo un progresivo proceso de metropolización binuclear. Estos factores, sumados a la escasa cantidad de conexiones físicas sobre el sistema fluvial del río Paraná, han instalado la creciente necesidad de contar con un nuevo enlace interprovincial, adaptado a una hipótesis de reactivación ferroviaria. El proyecto se encuentra en fase preliminar. La cuestión principal gira en torno a la decisión de su localización específica, que deberá considerar el profundo efecto transformador propio de una obra civil de gran calibre, tanto en relación a la plataforma natural como al sistema de asentamientos humanos. También sus alcances territoriales y el impacto potencial en la micro, meso y macroescala. El propósito de la investigación reside en profundizar sobre las dimensiones involucradas por el proyecto (técnica, social, económica, ambiental, de movilidad), en la búsqueda de una toma de posición que permita echar luz sobre los escenarios más beneficiosos y/o menos desfavorables, en relación a las numerosas propuestas de localización que se encuentran actualmente en discusión. El resultado es una matriz analítica basada en variables cuantitativas y cualitativas, que permite una evaluación integral de las propuestas en función de considerar, en síntesis, el grado de impacto sobre la plataforma natural sustentante, sus capacidades para revertir las problemáticas territoriales actuales, y finalmente sus posibilidades para generar nuevos ejes de desarrollo en la región o bien potenciar los existentes. Se concluye que análisis preliminares de tipo pluridimensional son necesarios para someter a discusión, como instancia previa a estudios específicos de factibilidad y viabilidad, puesto que permiten una visualización integral de las variables intervinientes, marcando el camino hacia su adecuada ponderación. Palabras clave: enlace, multimodalidad, región, transformaciones