A semantic modelling approach to knowledge based statistical software

The topic of this thesis is the development of knowledge based statistical software. The shortcomings of conventional statistical packages are discussed to illustrate the need to develop software which is able to exhibit a greater degree of statistical expertise, thereby reducing the misuse of statistical methods by those not well versed in the art of statistical analysis. Some of the issues involved in the development of knowledge based software are presented and a review is given of some of the systems that have been developed so far. The majority of these have moved away from conventional architectures by adopting what can be termed an expert systems approach. The thesis then proposes an approach which is based upon the concept of semantic modelling. By representing some of the semantic meaning of data, it is conceived that a system could examine a request to apply a statistical technique and check if the use of the chosen technique was semantically sound, i.e. will the results obtained be meaningful. Current systems, in contrast, can only perform what can be considered as syntactic checks. The prototype system that has been implemented to explore the feasibility of such an approach is presented, the system has been designed as an enhanced variant of a conventional style statistical package. This involved developing a semantic data model to represent some of the statistically relevant knowledge about data and identifying sets of requirements that should be met for the application of the statistical techniques to be valid. Those areas of statistics covered in the prototype are measures of association and tests of location.

Seeking Relationships in Big Data: A Bayesian Perspective

The real purpose of collecting big data is to identify causality in the hope that this will facilitate credible predictivity . But the search for causality can trap one into infinite regress, and thus one takes refuge in seeking associations between variables in data sets. Regrettably, the mere knowledge of associations does not enable predictivity. Associations need to be embedded within the framework of probability calculus to make coherent predictions. This is so because associations are a feature of probability models, and hence they do not exist outside the framework of a model. Measures of association, like correlation, regression, and mutual information merely refute a preconceived model. Estimated measures of associations do not lead to a probability model; a model is the product of pure thought. This paper discusses these and other fundamentals that are germane to seeking associations in particular, and machine learning in general. ACM Computing Classification System (1998): H.1.2, H.2.4., G.3.

Classes sociais e eleições presidenciais no Brasil contemporâneo (2002-2010)

This work aims to analyze, in terms of class, the social composition of the constituency of the presidential candidates of the Workers Party in 2002, 2006 and 2010 elections. Such research object is constructed from a preliminary critical debate with recent Brazilian electoral studies, especially the literature on the infl uence of social programs on voting and Singer’s formulations about the lulismo phenomenon. Incorporating advances and pointing out gaps in such research efforts, is formulated a roadmap for empirical research constituted of three key elements - the measure ment of the dimensions of class structure in Brazilian capitalism; the observation of material interests related to the constituents locations of such structure; the development of measures of association between the insertion in class groupings and indivi dual voting behavior. Based on the neo - Marxist approach of class analysis, especially as formulated by Wright, it is made an adaptation of the typology formulated by such approach (mainly developed by Santos to the Brazilian case) to the data available fro m databases of censuses of 2000 and 2010. This theoretical construct reveals that during the period considered for the analysis, the structure of class - relations in Brazil became more proletarized and consequently had a decrease of the dimensions of the de stitute class locations. In addition, it was found, in relation to the objective class interests, widespread increments of economic welfare that allowed advances in relation to the material conditions of the proletariat, without, however, incurring losses to the privileged class positions. Such changes in the structural sphere focused in various ways on the political arena. Based on an adaptation to electoral analysis of the concept of "class formation", also formulated by Wright, associated with the use of techniques of ecological inference (especially those proposed by King and associates), it was possible to draw up an overview of class voting in period studied. As main results, three general patterns of individual voting behavior, related to each of the three analyzed class groupings were identified - a contraposition against PT candidates, by voters in privileged class locations; the adhesion, recurring throughout the study period, of workers to Lula and Dilma Rousseff; a favorable electoral shift unde rtaken by economically deprived voters in favor of those candidatures in the 2006 election.

Transplantes de córneas no estado do Rio Grande do Norte: aspectos epidemiológicos e clínicos

This study aimed to characterize in a clinical and epidemiological way the patients who are on a waiting list for transplantation and the patients transplanted with corneal tissue in a corneal transplants reference service in the state of Rio Grande do Norte. It is an epidemiological study of a quantitative approach, with cross-sectional, descriptive and analytical cut including all patients on the waiting list for transplantation (population A) and the patients already transplanted with a corneal tissue (population B) in a reference service. In population A, there was a census conducted of patients on the waiting list for corneal transplantation (n=62 patients). In population B, the sample was non-probabilistic and corresponded to all corneal transplants performed in the service in the period from 2010 to 2014 (n=258). This study is approved by the Research Ethics Committee of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, in Opinion 876 177 and CAAE 37533014.8.0000.5537. Data were collected in full in the period from January to April 2015, by two instruments built to systematize the necessary data collection. After being coded and tabulated, data were analyzed using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences software, version 20.0. The definition of variables and their distribution patterns were presented as frequencies and measures of central tendency while, for multivariate analysis, the effect of magnitude measures were applied (prevalence ratio) and measures of association (chi-square test or Fisher's exact test) for a 0.05 significance level. The results are shown in two scientific articles coming from the field survey data. It was found that the epidemiological profile of patients on the waiting list (n=62) showed a prevalence of individuals aged over 50 years old, female (54.84%) and residents of the middle region of East Rio Grande do Norte (66.13%). The clinical profile of patients with corneal transplantation (n=258) was characterized by being male (51.16%) with an average age of 49.33 years old and 57.75% were coming from East Rio Grande do Norte. The average time on the waiting list was 172.63 days in elective transplants and 9.03 days in urgent transplants. Keratoconus was the main indicator condition to perform the transplant. For patients on the waiting list, the variable “type of disorder of the cornea” showed statistically significant association with gender and age. For patients with corneal transplants, the variable "type of disorder of the cornea" was associated with the variables gender, age, previous surgery, failure of previous graft, classification of the eye and glaucoma. By characterizing the clinical and epidemiological profile of corneal transplants, it is possible to question the reality, pointing about the care that should be offered and develop targeted interventions to collective and individual needs intrinsic to patients who need this surgery as a treatment option.

Prevalencia de punto de úlceras por presión y nivel de riesgo en el Hospital Universitario Fundación Santa Fe de Bogotá

Las úlceras por presión causadas por una presión sostenida sobre la piel y sus tejidos adyacentes es una problemática considerada de salud pública, dada su alta prevalencia, se presentan mayormente en personas que tienen restricción en su movilidad, en el 3 a 10 % de los pacientes hospitalizados; con una tasa de incidencia que oscila entre 7,7 y 26,9 %, con consecuencias para la institución por altos costos, la comunidad, el paciente y su familia. En Colombia solo se cuenta con algunos estudios en instituciones en Bogotá, Cartagena, Bucaramanga y Medellín. Los estudios de prevalencia son importantes porque permiten visualizar la situación de la problemática, incentiva la implementación de medidas preventivas y la formulación de políticas institucionales que promuevan la seguridad del paciente y la calidad de la atención. En el Hospital Universitario Fundación Santa Fe de Bogotá no se conoce con exactitud la prevalencia pero se sabe que está presente por las complicaciones y consecuencias ya mencionadas, por ende el objetivo de este estudio fue determinar la prevalencia de punto de úlceras por presión en los pacientes hospitalizados, y al finalizar ser insumo para un estudio posterior que genere un Programa de Piel Sana institucional. El estudio se realizó mediante la medición en 1 día donde se valoró todos los pacientes hospitalizados, se realizó un análisis descriptivo de cada variable, y con un análisis bivariado se obtuvo medidas de asociación para identificar la relación entre los factores de riesgo y el desarrollo de ulceras por presión.

Alteraciones cutáneas de miembros superiores por exposición a agroquímicos en cultivos de arroz, departamento de La Guajira 2016

Introducción: la vida, salud y trabajo del agricultor tienen sus propias particularidades, estilos y actividades, su calidad de vida puede afectarse por exponerse a sustancias químicas, convirtiéndola en una labor muy riesgosa. Objetivo: establecer la prevalencia de las alteraciones cutáneas de miembros superiores por exposición a agroquímicos en cultivos de arroz. Material y método: estudio de corte transversal, población de 100 trabajadores, ubicadas en zona rural de Fonseca La Guajira, durante el año 2016. Se analizaron variables sociodemográficas, laborales y clínicas relacionadas. Para el análisis estadístico se aplicaron las pruebas de Shapiro-Wilk, Ji-Cuadrado de Pearson, medidas de asociación con OR y sus respectivos intervalos de confianza del 95%, análisis multivariado con una Regresión Logística Incondicional, nivel de significancia del 5% (p<0.05) para pruebas estadísticas. Resultados: el 98,9% fueron hombres, las edades oscilaron entre los 18 y 83 años (media de 43,7 años). El 40,91% reporto fumigar y el, 15,15% abona. Reportaron tener rinitis alérgica el 21,2%, alergia ocular 25,3%, asma 16,41%, eczemas en las manos 19,15% y ronchas o habones 17,95%; el 40,31% uso herbicidas, 8,77% fungicidas, 35,09% insecticidas, 14,04% fertilizante y 1,75% coadyuvante. La dependencia es prácticamente nula entre la aparición de eczemas y categoría toxica (p=0,021); R de Pearson (R=0,121; p=0,247) con correlación positiva; no existe una relación entre el número de personas con alergias dérmicas y la toxicidad (X2= 2,271; p=0,518), el R de Pearson (R=-0,152; p=0,150). Conclusión: la exposición a agroquímicos sin las condiciones mínimas de seguridad y salud en el trabajo, se relaciona con la aparición de alteraciones cutáneas.

Social representations about the Portuguese adolescent alcohol consumption

Alcohol is currently the most widely consumed psychoactive substance in the world and Portugal is the second country where such consumption is greater, registering a large increase in consumption by young people. Currently continue still, beliefs, myths and prejudices that because they are well rooted culturally serve as good reasons for drinking. This study sought therefore to identify the myths associated by adolescents to alcohol consumption. A questionnaire was developed for this purpose (74 items, α = 0.947) and applied to a sample of 1176 adolescents schooled between 14 and 18 years old, with a return rate of 42.6% (margin of error of 5% for a confidence level of 95%) in the district of Beja, Portugal, in 2012. The collected data were statistically analyzed using measures of association, factor analysis and linear regression. The results show that many myths are unknown among adolescents, verifying the presence of many questions, among which stands out: alcohol "warm", "thirst quenching", "gives strength", "facilitates digestion" "whet the appetite", "is a medicine", "is aphrodisiac", "facilitates social relations", among others. Age and sex are variables significantly affected the myths and objectives of alcohol consumption. These results clearly point to the need to be disassembled beliefs and wrong conceptions about the effects of alcohol consumption, particularly in the school environment, reducing the risk of the consequences and promoting adolescent health, preventing any future dependence on this psychoactive substance.

Profile of anisometropia and aniso-astigmatism in children; prevalence and association with age, ocular biometric measures, and refractive status

Purpose. We describe the profile and associations of anisometropia and aniso-astigmatism in a population-based sample of children. Methods. The Northern Ireland Childhood Errors of Refraction (NICER) study used a stratified random cluster design to recruit a representative sample of children from schools in Northern Ireland. Examinations included cycloplegic (1% cyclopentolate) autorefraction, and measures of axial length, anterior chamber depth, and corneal curvature. ?2 tests were used to assess variations in the prevalence of anisometropia and aniso-astigmatism by age group, with logistic regression used to compare odds of anisometropia and aniso-astigmatism with refractive status (myopia, emmetropia, hyperopia). The Mann-Whitney U test was used to examine interocular differences in ocular biometry. Results. Data from 661 white children aged 12 to 13 years (50.5% male) and 389 white children aged 6 to 7 years (49.6% male) are presented. The prevalence of anisometropia =1 diopters sphere (DS) did not differ statistically significantly between 6- to 7-year-old (8.5%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.9–13.1) and 12- to 13-year-old (9.4%; 95% CI, 5.9–12.9) children. The prevalence of aniso-astigmatism =1 diopters cylinder (DC) did not vary statistically significantly between 6- to 7-year-old (7.7%; 95% CI, 4.3–11.2) and 12- to 13-year-old (5.6%; 95% CI, 0.5–8.1) children. Anisometropia and aniso-astigmatism were more common in 12- to 13-year-old children with hyperopia =+2 DS. Anisometropic eyes had greater axial length asymmetry than nonanisometropic eyes. Aniso-astigmatic eyes were more asymmetric in axial length and corneal astigmatism than eyes without aniso-astigmatism. Conclusions. In this population, there is a high prevalence of axial anisometropia and corneal/axial aniso-astigmatism, associated with hyperopia, but whether these relations are causal is unclear. Further work is required to clarify the developmental mechanism behind these associations.

The Prevalence Of The Metabolically Healthy Obese Phenotype In An Aging Population And Its Association With Subclinical Cardiovascular Disease: The Brazilian Study On Healthy Aging.

Current literature has elucidated a new phenotype, metabolically healthy obese (MHO), with risks of cardiovascular disease similar to that of normal weight individuals. Few studies have examined the MHO phenotype in an aging population, especially in association with subclinical CVD. This cross sectional study population consisted of 208 octogenarians and older. Anthropometrics, biochemical, and radiological parameters were measured to assess obesity, metabolic health (assessed by the National Cholesterol Education Program -Adult Treatment Panel (NCEP-ATP III) criteria), and subclinical measures of CVD. The prevalence of MHO was 13.5% (N = 28). No significant association with MHO was noted for age, coronary artery calcium score, cIMT, or hs-CRP > 3 mg/dl (p = NS). Our results suggest that the MHO phenotype exists in the elderly; however, subclinical CVD measures were not different in sub-group analysis suggesting traditional metabolic risk factor algorithms may not be accurate in the very elderly.

Petrographic and isotope constraints on the origin of authigenic carbonate minerals and the associated fluid evolution in Late Permian coal measures, Bowen Basin (Queensland), Australia

Authigenic carbonate minerals are ubiquitous throughout the Late Permian coal measures of the Bowen Basin, Queensland, Australia. In the northern Bowen Basin, carbonates include the following assemblages: siderite I (delta O-18(SMOW) = +11.4 to + 17%, delta C-13(PDB) = - 5.3 to + 120), Fe-Mg calcite-ankerite-siderite II mineral association (delta O-18(SMOW) = +7.2 to + 10.20, delta C-13(PDB) = 10.9 to - 1.80 for ankerite) and a later calcite (delta O-18(SMOW) = +5.9 to + 14.60, delta C-13(PDB) = -11.4 to + 4.40). In the southern Bowen Basin, the carbonate phase consists only of calcite (delta O-18(SMOW) = +12.5 to + 14.80, delta C-13(PDB) = -19.4 to + 0.80), where it occurs extensively throughout all stratigraphic levels. Siderite I occurs in mudrocks and sandstones and predates all other carbonate minerals. This carbonate phase is interpreted to have formed as an early diagenetic mineral from meteoric waters under cold climate and reducing conditions. Fe-Mg calcite-ankerite-siderite Il occur in sandstones as replacement of volcanic rock fragments. Clay minerals (illite-smectite, chlorite and kaolinite) postdate Ca-Fe-Mg carbonates, and precipitation of the later calcite is associated with clay mineral formation. The Ca-Fe-Mg carbonates and later calcite of the northern Bowen Basin are regarded as having formed as a result of hydrothermal activity during the latest Triassic extensional tectonic event which affected this part of the basin, rather than deep burial diagenesis during the Middle to Late Triassic as previously reported. This hypothesis is based on the timing relationships of the authigenic mineral phases and the low delta O-18 values of ankerite and calcite, together with radiometric dating of illitic clays and recently published regional geological evidence. Following the precipitation of the Ca-Fe-Mg carbonates from strongly O-18-depleted meteoric-hydrothermal fluids, continuing fluid circulation and water-rock interaction resulted in dissolution of these carbonate phases as well as labile fragments of volcaniclastic rocks. Subsequently, the later calcite and day minerals precipitated from relatively evolved (O-18-enriched) fluids. The nearly uniform delta O-18 values of the southern Bowen Basin calcite have been attributed to very low water/rock ratio in the system, where the fluid isotropic composition was buffered by the delta O-18 values of rocks. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Association between micronuclei frequency in pollen mother cells of Tradescantia and mortality due to cancer and cardiovascular diseases: A preliminary study in Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil

The present study was designed to explore the correlation between the frequency of micronuclei in Trad-MN, measured across 28 biomonitoring stations during the period comprised between 11 of May and 2 of October, 2006, and adjusted mortality rates due to cardiovascular, respiratory diseases and cancer in Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil, an area with different sources of air pollution. For controlling purposes, mortality rate due to gastrointestinal diseases (an event less prone to be affected by air pollution) was also considered in the analysis. Spatial distribution of micronuclei frequency was determined using average interpolation. The association between health estimators and micronuclei frequency was determined by measures of Pearson`s correlation. Higher frequencies of micronuclei were detected in areas with high traffic and close to a petrochemical pole. Significant associations were detected between micronuclei frequency and adjusted mortality rate due to cardiovascular diseases (r = 0.841, p = 0.036) and cancer (r = 0.890, p = 0.018). The association between mortality due to chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases was positive but did not reach statistical significance (r = 0.640, p = 0.172), probably because of the small number of events. Gastrointestinal mortality did not exhibit significant association with micronuclei frequency. Because the small number of observations and the nature of an ecological study, the present findings must be considered with caution and considered as preliminary. Further studies, performed in different conditions of contamination and climate should be done before considering Trad-MN in the evaluation of human health risk imposed by air pollutants. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Clinical, polysomnographic and genome-wide association analyses of narcolepsy with cataplexy: a European Narcolepsy Network study.

The aim of this study was to describe the clinical and PSG characteristics of narcolepsy with cataplexy and their genetic predisposition by using the retrospective patient database of the European Narcolepsy Network (EU-NN). We have analysed retrospective data of 1099 patients with narcolepsy diagnosed according to International Classification of Sleep Disorders-2. Demographic and clinical characteristics, polysomnography and multiple sleep latency test data, hypocretin-1 levels, and genome-wide genotypes were available. We found a significantly lower age at sleepiness onset (men versus women: 23.74 ± 12.43 versus 21.49 ± 11.83, P = 0.003) and longer diagnostic delay in women (men versus women: 13.82 ± 13.79 versus 15.62 ± 14.94, P = 0.044). The mean diagnostic delay was 14.63 ± 14.31 years, and longer delay was associated with higher body mass index. The best predictors of short diagnostic delay were young age at diagnosis, cataplexy as the first symptom and higher frequency of cataplexy attacks. The mean multiple sleep latency negatively correlated with Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS) and with the number of sleep-onset rapid eye movement periods (SOREMPs), but none of the polysomnographic variables was associated with subjective or objective measures of sleepiness. Variant rs2859998 in UBXN2B gene showed a strong association (P = 1.28E-07) with the age at onset of excessive daytime sleepiness, and rs12425451 near the transcription factor TEAD4 (P = 1.97E-07) with the age at onset of cataplexy. Altogether, our results indicate that the diagnostic delay remains extremely long, age and gender substantially affect symptoms, and that a genetic predisposition affects the age at onset of symptoms.

Genome-wide association study to identify common variants associated with brachial circumference: a meta-analysis of 14 cohorts.

Brachial circumference (BC), also known as upper arm or mid arm circumference, can be used as an indicator of muscle mass and fat tissue, which are distributed differently in men and women. Analysis of anthropometric measures of peripheral fat distribution such as BC could help in understanding the complex pathophysiology behind overweight and obesity. The purpose of this study is to identify genetic variants associated with BC through a large-scale genome-wide association scan (GWAS) meta-analysis. We used fixed-effects meta-analysis to synthesise summary results across 14 GWAS discovery and 4 replication cohorts comprising overall 22,376 individuals (12,031 women and 10,345 men) of European ancestry. Individual analyses were carried out for men, women, and combined across sexes using linear regression and an additive genetic model: adjusted for age and adjusted for age and BMI. We prioritised signals for follow-up in two-stages. We did not detect any signals reaching genome-wide significance. The FTO rs9939609 SNP showed nominal evidence for association (p<0.05) in the age-adjusted strata for men and across both sexes. In this first GWAS meta-analysis for BC to date, we have not identified any genome-wide significant signals and do not observe robust association of previously established obesity loci with BC. Large-scale collaborations will be necessary to achieve higher power to detect loci underlying BC.

A Swiss neighbourhood index of socioeconomic position: Development and Association with Mortality

Background Area-based measures of socioeconomic position (SEP) suitable for epidemiological research are lacking in Switzerland. The authors developed the Swiss neighbourhood index of SEP (Swiss-SEP). Methods Neighbourhoods of 50 households with overlapping boundaries were defined using Census 2000 and road network data. Median rent per square metre, proportion households headed by a person with primary education or less, proportion headed by a person in manual or unskilled occupation and the mean number of persons per room were analysed in principle component analysis. The authors compared the index with independent income data and examined associations with mortality from 2001 to 2008. Results 1.27 million overlapping neighbourhoods were defined. Education, occupation and housing variables had loadings of 0.578, 0.570 and 0.362, respectively, and median rent had a loading of −0.459. Mean yearly equivalised income of households increased from SFr42 000 to SFr72 000 between deciles of neighbourhoods with lowest and highest SEP. Comparing deciles of neighbourhoods with lowest to highest SEP, the age- and sex-adjusted HR was 1.38 (95% CI 1.36 to 1.41) for all-cause mortality, 1.83 (95% CI 1.71 to 1.95) for lung cancer, 1.48 (95% CI 1.44 to 1.51) for cardiovascular diseases, 2.42 (95% CI 1.94 to 3.01) for traffic accidents, 0.93 (95% CI 0.85 to 1.02) for breast cancer and 0.86 (95% CI 0.78 to 0.95) for suicide. Conclusions Developed using a novel approach to define neighbourhoods, the Swiss-SEP index was strongly associated with household income and some causes of death. It will be useful for clinical- and population-based studies, where individual-level socioeconomic data are often missing, and to investigate the effects on health of the socioeconomic characteristics of a place.

Post-processing association rules with clustering and objective measures

The post-processing of association rules is a difficult task, since a large number of patterns can be obtained. Many approaches have been developed to overcome this problem, as objective measures and clustering, which are respectively used to: (i) highlight the potentially interesting knowledge in domain; (ii) structure the domain, organizing the rules in groups that contain, somehow, similar knowledge. However, objective measures don't reduce nor organize the collection of rules, making the understanding of the domain difficult. On the other hand, clustering doesn't reduce the exploration space nor direct the user to find interesting knowledge, making the search for relevant knowledge not so easy. This work proposes the PAR-COM (Post-processing Association Rules with Clustering and Objective Measures) methodology that, combining clustering and objective measures, reduces the association rule exploration space directing the user to what is potentially interesting. Thereby, PAR-COM minimizes the user's effort during the post-processing process.