Achieving EU energy targets – Impacts of evolutionary and revolutionary transition paths on power systems

Ambitious energy targets set by EU put pressures to increase share of renewable electricity supply in this and next decades and therefore, some EU member countries have boosted increasing renewable energy generation capacity by implementing subsidy schemes on national level. In this study, two different change approaches to increase renewable energy supply and increase self-sufficiency of supply are assessed with respect to their impacts on power system, electricity market and electricity generation costs in Finland. It is obtained that the current electricity generation costs are high compared to opportunities of earnings from present-day investor’s perspective. In addition, the growth expectations of consumptions and the price forecasts do not stimulate investing in new generation capacity. Revolutionary transition path is driven by administrative and political interventions to achieve the energy targets. Evolutionary transition path is driven by market-based mechanisms, such as market itself and emission trading scheme. It is obtained in this study that in the revolutionary transition path operation of market-based mechanisms is distorted to some extent and it is likely that this path requires providing more public financial resources compared to evolutionary transition path. In the evolutionary transition path the energy targets are not achieved as quickly but market-based mechanisms function better and investment environment endures more stable compared to revolutionary transition path.

Consumers perception and evaluation of fresh cut buying attributes: a survey on the Italian market

During the last twenty years, consumer choice in high income countries is no longer merely dictated by price and the organoleptic characteristics of a product, but also by other features some of which are not patently tangible. The growing importance of such attributes in the process of consumer choice is not only due to income increase, but also to changes in lifestyle such as migrations from the countryside, a generalized urbanization and consequential city life style, female emancipation and work outside the domestic walls for women, the drastic decrease in hard physical labor and the process of internationalization. The present survey study aims to explore the importance that Italian consumers give to fresh cut buying attributes and which of these attributes should be taken into consideration by industries in order to satisfy the needs of the most critical shoppers. Where possible, market and survey data for fresh cut products will be compared with those for cooked products and before presenting the results and conclusions of the study, the technical issues of processing will be highlighted owing to the fact that they affect the marketing of these products, the recent market situation with regard to consumption will be illustrated and the methodology used will be described.

The determinants of a cross market arbitrage opportunity: theory and evidence for the European bond market

This paper examines the determinants of cross-platform arbitrage profits. We develop a structural model that enables us to decompose the likelihood of an arbitrage opportunity into three distinct factors: the fixed cost to trade the opportunity, the level at which one of the platforms delays a price update and the impact of the order flow on the quoted prices (inventory and asymmetric information effects). We then investigate the predictions from the theoretical model for the European Bond market with the estimation of a probit model. Our main finding is that the results found in the empirical part corroborate strongly the predictions from the structural model. The event of a cross market arbitrage opportunity has a certain degree of predictability where an optimal ex ante scenario is represented by a low level of spreads on both platforms, a time of the day close to the end of trading hours and a high volume of trade.

STABILITY ANALYSIS WITH APPLICATIONS OF A TWO-DIMENSIONAL DYNAMICAL SYSTEM ARISING FROM A STOCHASTIC MODEL FOR AN ASSET MARKET

We analyze the stability properties of equilibrium solutions and periodicity of orbits in a two-dimensional dynamical system whose orbits mimic the evolution of the price of an asset and the excess demand for that asset. The construction of the system is grounded upon a heterogeneous interacting agent model for a single risky asset market. An advantage of this construction procedure is that the resulting dynamical system becomes a macroscopic market model which mirrors the market quantities and qualities that would typically be taken into account solely at the microscopic level of modeling. The system`s parameters correspond to: (a) the proportion of speculators in a market; (b) the traders` speculative trend; (c) the degree of heterogeneity of idiosyncratic evaluations of the market agents with respect to the asset`s fundamental value; and (d) the strength of the feedback of the population excess demand on the asset price update increment. This correspondence allows us to employ our results in order to infer plausible causes for the emergence of price and demand fluctuations in a real asset market. The employment of dynamical systems for studying evolution of stochastic models of socio-economic phenomena is quite usual in the area of heterogeneous interacting agent models. However, in the vast majority of the cases present in the literature, these dynamical systems are one-dimensional. Our work is among the few in the area that construct and study analytically a two-dimensional dynamical system and apply it for explanation of socio-economic phenomena.

Techno-economic Appraisal of Concentrating Solar Power Systems (CSP)

The diffusion of Concentrating Solar Power Systems (CSP) systems is currently taking place at a much slower pace than photovoltaic (PV) power systems. This is mainly because of the higher present cost of the solar thermal power plants, but also for the time that is needed in order to build them. Though economic attractiveness of different Concentrating technologies varies, still PV power dominates the market. The price of CSP is expected to drop significantly in the near future and wide spread installation of them will follow. The main aim of this project is the creation of different relevant case studies on solar thermal power generation and a comparison betwwen them. The purpose of this detailed comparison is the techno-economic appraisal of a number of CSP systems and the understanding of their behaviour under various boundary conditions. The CSP technologies which will be examined are the Parabolic Trough, the Molten Salt Power Tower, the Linear Fresnel Mirrors and the Dish Stirling. These systems will be appropriatly sized and simulated. All of the simulations aim in the optimization of the particular system. This includes two main issues. The first is the achievement of the lowest possible levelized cost of electricity and the second is the maximization of the annual energy output (kWh). The project also aims in the specification of these factors which affect more the results and more specifically, in what they contribute to the cost reduction or the power generation. Also, photovoltaic systems will be simulated under same boundary conditions to facolitate a comparison between the PV and the CSP systems. Last but not leats, there will be a determination of the system which performs better in each case study.

Photovoltaic System Design for a Contaminated Area in Falun – Comparison of South and East- West Layout

In this thesis the solar part of a large grid-connected photovoltaic system design has been done. The main purpose was to size and optimize the system and to present figures helping to evaluate the prospective project rationality, which can potentially be constructed on a contaminated area in Falun. The methodology consisted in PV market study and component selection, site analysis and defining suitable area for solar installation; and system configuration optimization based on PVsyst simulations and Levelized Cost of Energy calculations. The procedure was mainly divided on two parts, preliminary and detailed sizing. In the first part the objective was complex, which included the investigation of the most profitable component combination and system optimization due to tilt and row distance. It was done by simulating systems with different components and orientations, which were sized for the same 100kW inverter in order to make a fair comparison. For each simulated result a simplified LCOE calculation procedure was applied. The main results of this part show that with the price of 0.43 €/Wp thin-film modules were the most cost effective solution for the case with a great advantage over crystalline type in terms of financial attractiveness. From the results of the preliminary study it was possible to select the optimal system configuration, which was used in the detailed sizing as a starting point. In this part the PVsyst simulations were run, which included full scale system design considering near shadings created by factory buildings. Additionally, more complex procedure of LCOE calculation has been used here considered insurances, maintenance, time value of money and possible cost reduction due to the system size. Two system options were proposed in final results; both cover the same area of 66000 m2. The first one represents an ordinary South faced design with 1.1 MW nominal power, which was optimized for the highest performance. According to PVsyst simulations, this system should produce 1108 MWh/year with the initial investment of 835,000 € and 0.056 €/kWh LCOE. The second option has an alternative East-West orientation, which allows to cover 80% of occupied ground and consequently have 6.6 MW PV nominal power. The system produces 5388 MWh/year costs about 4500,000 € and delivers electricity with the same price of 0.056 €/kWh. Even though the EW solution has 20% lower specific energy production, it benefits mainly from lower relative costs for inverters, mounting and annual maintenance expenses. After analyzing the performance results, among the two alternatives none of the systems showed a clear superiority so there was no optimal system proposed. Both, South and East-West solutions have own advantages and disadvantages in terms of energy production profile, configuration, installation and maintenance. Furthermore, the uncertainty due to cost figures assumptions restricted the results veracity.

Market coupling in the power markets

The thesis analyses the European Unions’ effort to create an integrated pan-European electricity market based on “market coupling” as the proposed allocation mechanism for interconnector transfer capacity. Thus, the thesis’ main focus is if market coupling leads to a price convergence in interlinked markets and how it affects the behavior of electricity price data. The applied research methods are a qualitative, structured literature review and a quantitative analysis of electricity price data. The quantitative analysis relies on descriptive statistics of absolute price differentials and on a Cointegration analysis according to Engle & Granger (1987)’s two step approach. Main findings are that implicit auction mechanisms such as market coupling are more efficient than explicit auctions. Especially the method of price coupling leads to a price convergence in involved markets, to social welfare gains and reduces market power of producers, as shown on the example of the TLC market coupling. The market coupling initiative between Germany and Denmark, on the other hand, is evaluated as less successful and illustrates the complexity and difficulties of implementing market coupling initiatives. The cointegration analysis shows that the time series were already before the coupling date cointegrated, but the statistical significance increased. The thesis suggests that market coupling leads to a price convergence of involved markets and thus functions as method to create a single, integrated European electricity market.

Macroeconomic announcements, price discovery, and order flow efects in the stock market: evidence from incomplete data and multiple financial markets

This paper investigates heterogeneity in the market assessment of public macro- economic announcements by exploring (jointly) two main mechanisms through which macroeconomic news might enter stock prices: instantaneous fundamental news im- pacts consistent with the asset pricing view of symmetric information, and permanent order ow e¤ects consistent with a microstructure view of asymmetric information related to heterogeneous interpretation of public news. Theoretical motivation and empirical evidence for the operation of both mechanisms are presented. Signi cant in- stantaneous news impacts are detected for news related to real activity (including em- ployment), investment, in ation, and monetary policy; however, signi cant order ow e¤ects are also observed on employment announcement days. A multi-market analysis suggests that these asymmetric information e¤ects come from uncertainty about long term interest rates due to heterogeneous assessments of future Fed responses to em- ployment shocks.

Optimal Contract Pricing of Distributed Generation in Distribution Networks

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

The employment situation in Latin America and the Caribbean: Crisis, stabilization and reactivation: performance of the labour market in 2009

Following a five-year period during which economic and social performance in Latin America and the Caribbean surpassed anything seen in recent decades, the global economic and financial crisis not only hurt macroeconomic variables but also impacted heavily on labour markets in the region’s countries. Between 2003 and 2008 employment rates had risen considerably, especially in the formal sector, but the crisis spelled a reversal of this trend. Nevertheless, the region was better prepared than it had been in previous crises, since it had achieved a sound fiscal footing, a good level of international reserves and low rates of inflation. This meant that the authorities had the space to implement countercyclical policies on both fiscal and monetary levels. Be this as it may, faced with the worst global crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s, these measures could only attenuate the impact on the region’s economies —they could not prevent it altogether. Furthermore, the crisis struck with notable differences among subregions and countries depending on the nature of their trade integration, and not all the countries had the fiscal space to implement vigorous countercyclical policies. As discussed in this third ECLAC/ILO bulletin, the crisis did less damage to the region’s labour markets than had been feared at the beginning of last year, thanks to the implementation of public policies geared towards employment, as reviewed in the two previous bulletins. This bulletin offers an additional analysis from the perspective of gender equality. Moreover, some countries in the region, notably Brazil, managed to rapidly stabilize and revive economic growth, with positive effects on labour variables. The fact remains, however, that millions in Latin America and the Caribbean lost their jobs or were obliged to accept more poorly paid employment in more precarious conditions. The macroeconomic data indicate that recovery is under way and is stronger and occurring more rapidly than foreseen one year ago. In fact, regional growth in 2010 may well exceed the 4.1% forecast at the end of 2009. Consequently, although the unemployment rate may be expected to record a modest drop, it may not return to pre-crisis levels. The upturn is taking many different forms in the countries of the region. In some, especially in South America, recovery has benefited from the buoyancy of the Asian economies, whose demand for natural resources has driven large increases in exports, in terms of both volume and price. Countries whose economies are closely tied to the United States economy are benefiting from the recovery there, albeit more slowly and with a certain lag. Conversely, some countries are still suffering from major disequilibria, which are hampering their economic reactivation. Lastly, Chile and Haiti were both victims of devastating earthquakes early in the year and are therefore facing additional challenges associated with reconstruction, on top of their efforts to sustain an economic upturn. Despite the relatively favourable outlook for regional growth in 2010, great uncertainty still surrounds the global economy’s recovery, which affects the region’s economic prospects over the longer term. The weakness of the recovery in some regions and the doubts about its sustainability in others, as well as shocks that have occurred in international financial markets, are warning signs which authorities need to monitor continuously because of the region’s close integration with the global economy. In addition, a return to growth does not directly or automatically mean higher employment rates —still less decent working conditions. Although some labour indicators have performed reasonably favourably since the end of last year, the countries still face daunting challenges in improving the labour market integration of millions in Latin America and the Caribbean who are not seeing the fruits of renewed growth. This is why it is important to learn the lessons arising from the policies implemented during the crisis to offset its impact on labour markets. With this third joint bulletin, ECLAC and ILO continue to pursue their objective of affording the region the information and analyses needed to face these challenges, as regards both trends in the region’s labour markets and the corresponding policy options.

Price risk management in the copper market using commodity derivatives and options strategies

Metals price risk management is a key issue related to financial risk in metal markets because of uncertainty of commodity price fluctuation, exchange rate, interest rate changes and huge price risk either to metals’ producers or consumers. Thus, it has been taken into account by all participants in metal markets including metals’ producers, consumers, merchants, banks, investment funds, speculators, traders and so on. Managing price risk provides stable income for both metals’ producers and consumers, so it increases the chance that a firm will invest in attractive projects. The purpose of this research is to evaluate risk management strategies in the copper market. The main tools and strategies of price risk management are hedging and other derivatives such as futures contracts, swaps and options contracts. Hedging is a transaction designed to reduce or eliminate price risk. Derivatives are financial instruments, whose returns are derived from other financial instruments and they are commonly used for managing financial risks. Although derivatives have been around in some form for centuries, their growth has accelerated rapidly during the last 20 years. Nowadays, they are widely used by financial institutions, corporations, professional investors, and individuals. This project is focused on the over-the-counter (OTC) market and its products such as exotic options, particularly Asian options. The first part of the project is a description of basic derivatives and risk management strategies. In addition, this part discusses basic concepts of spot and futures (forward) markets, benefits and costs of risk management and risks and rewards of positions in the derivative markets. The second part considers valuations of commodity derivatives. In this part, the options pricing model DerivaGem is applied to Asian call and put options on London Metal Exchange (LME) copper because it is important to understand how Asian options are valued and to compare theoretical values of the options with their market observed values. Predicting future trends of copper prices is important and would be essential to manage market price risk successfully. Therefore, the third part is a discussion about econometric commodity models. Based on this literature review, the fourth part of the project reports the construction and testing of an econometric model designed to forecast the monthly average price of copper on the LME. More specifically, this part aims at showing how LME copper prices can be explained by means of a simultaneous equation structural model (two-stage least squares regression) connecting supply and demand variables. A simultaneous econometric model for the copper industry is built: {█(Q_t^D=e^((-5.0485))∙P_((t-1))^((-0.1868) )∙〖GDP〗_t^((1.7151) )∙e^((0.0158)∙〖IP〗_t ) @Q_t^S=e^((-3.0785))∙P_((t-1))^((0.5960))∙T_t^((0.1408))∙P_(OIL(t))^((-0.1559))∙〖USDI〗_t^((1.2432))∙〖LIBOR〗_((t-6))^((-0.0561))@Q_t^D=Q_t^S )┤ P_((t-1))^CU=e^((-2.5165))∙〖GDP〗_t^((2.1910))∙e^((0.0202)∙〖IP〗_t )∙T_t^((-0.1799))∙P_(OIL(t))^((0.1991))∙〖USDI〗_t^((-1.5881))∙〖LIBOR〗_((t-6))^((0.0717) Where, Q_t^D and Q_t^Sare world demand for and supply of copper at time t respectively. P(t-1) is the lagged price of copper, which is the focus of the analysis in this part. GDPt is world gross domestic product at time t, which represents aggregate economic activity. In addition, industrial production should be considered here, so the global industrial production growth that is noted as IPt is included in the model. Tt is the time variable, which is a useful proxy for technological change. A proxy variable for the cost of energy in producing copper is the price of oil at time t, which is noted as POIL(t ) . USDIt is the U.S. dollar index variable at time t, which is an important variable for explaining the copper supply and copper prices. At last, LIBOR(t-6) is the 6-month lagged 1-year London Inter bank offering rate of interest. Although, the model can be applicable for different base metals' industries, the omitted exogenous variables such as the price of substitute or a combined variable related to the price of substitutes have not been considered in this study. Based on this econometric model and using a Monte-Carlo simulation analysis, the probabilities that the monthly average copper prices in 2006 and 2007 will be greater than specific strike price of an option are defined. The final part evaluates risk management strategies including options strategies, metal swaps and simple options in relation to the simulation results. The basic options strategies such as bull spreads, bear spreads and butterfly spreads, which are created by using both call and put options in 2006 and 2007 are evaluated. Consequently, each risk management strategy in 2006 and 2007 is analyzed based on the day of data and the price prediction model. As a result, applications stemming from this project include valuing Asian options, developing a copper price prediction model, forecasting and planning, and decision making for price risk management in the copper market.

An Experimental Study of Complex-Offer Auctions: Payment Cost Minimization vs. Offer Cost Minimization

A Payment Cost Minimization (PCM) auction has been proposed as an alternative to the Offer Cost Minimization (OCM) auction to be used in wholesale electric power markets with the intention to lower the procurement cost of electricity. Efficiency concerns about this proposal have relied on the assumption of true production cost revelation. Using an experimental approach, I compare the two auctions, strictly controlling for the level of unilateral market power. A specific feature of these complex-offer auctions is that the sellers submit not only the quantities and the minimum prices at which they are willing to sell, but also the start-up fees that are designed to reimburse the fixed start-up costs of the generation plants. I find that both auctions result in start-up fees that are significantly higher than the start-up costs. Overall, the two auctions perform similarly in terms of procurement cost and efficiency. Surprisingly, I do not find a substantial difference between less market power and more market power designs. Both designs result in similar inefficiencies and equally higher procurement costs over the competitive prediction. The PCM auction tends to have lower price volatility than the OCM auction when the market power is minimal but this property vanishes in the designs with market power. These findings lead me to conclude that both the PCM and the OCM auctions do not belong to the class of truth revealing mechanisms and do not easily elicit competitive behavior.

The Chilean wheat market and its price support mechanism : a spatial market integration analysis

This research investigates the spatial market integration of the Chilean wheat market in relation with its most representative international markets by using a vector error correction model (VECM) and how a price support policy, as a price band, affect it. The international market was characterized by two relevant wheat prices: PAN from Argentina and Hard Red Winter from the United States. The spatial market integration level, expressed in the error correction term (ECT), allowed concluding that there is a high integration degree among these markets with a variable influence of the price band mechanism mainly related with its estimation methodology. Moreover, this paper showed that Chile can be seen as price taker as long as the speed of its adjustment to international shocks, being these reactions faster than in the United States and Argentina. Finally, the results validated the "Law of the One Price", which assumes price equalization across all local markets in the long run.

Valuation of a new entrant in an oligopolistic market, including its option to abandon: A real-life case

The purpose of this paper is to increase current empirical evidence on the relevance of real options for explaining firm investment decisions in oligopolistic markets. We study an actual investment case in the Spanish mobile telephony industry, the entrant in the market of a new operator, Yoigo. We analyze the option to abandon in order to show the relevance of the possibility of selling the company in an oligopolistic market where competitors are not allowed free entrance. The NPV (net present value) of the new entrant is calculated as a starting point. Then, based on the general approach proposed by Copeland and Antikarov (2001), a binomial tree is used to model managerial flexibility in discrete time periods, and value the option to abandon. The strike price of the option is calculated based on incremental EBITDA margins due to selling customers or merging with a competitor.

Seasonal Dynamic Factor Analysis and Bootstrap Inference: Application to Electricity Market Forecasting

In this work, we propose the Seasonal Dynamic Factor Analysis (SeaDFA), an extension of Nonstationary Dynamic Factor Analysis, through which one can deal with dimensionality reduction in vectors of time series in such a way that both common and specific components are extracted. Furthermore, common factors are able to capture not only regular dynamics (stationary or not) but also seasonal ones, by means of the common factors following a multiplicative seasonal VARIMA(p, d, q) × (P, D, Q)s model. Additionally, a bootstrap procedure that does not need a backward representation of the model is proposed to be able to make inference for all the parameters in the model. A bootstrap scheme developed for forecasting includes uncertainty due to parameter estimation, allowing enhanced coverage of forecasting intervals. A challenging application is provided. The new proposed model and a bootstrap scheme are applied to an innovative subject in electricity markets: the computation of long-term point forecasts and prediction intervals of electricity prices. Several appendices with technical details, an illustrative example, and an additional table are available online as Supplementary Materials.