When smoke gets in our eyes: The multiple impacts of atmospheric black carbon on climate, air quality and health

With both climate change and air quality on political and social agendas from local to global scale, the links between these hitherto separate fields are becoming more apparent. Black carbon, largely from combustion processes, scatters and absorbs incoming solar radiation, contributes to poor air quality and induces respiratory and cardiovascular problems. Uncertainties in the amount, location, size and shape of atmospheric black carbon cause large uncertainty in both climate change estimates and toxicology studies alike. Increased research has led to new effects and areas of uncertainty being uncovered. Here we draw together recent results and explore the increasing opportunities for synergistic research that will lead to improved confidence in the impact of black carbon on climate change, air quality and human health. Topics of mutual interest include better information on spatial distribution, size, mixing state and measuring and monitoring. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Gene conversion and evolution of Xq28 duplicons involved in recurring inversions causing severe hemophilia A

Inversions breaking the 1041 bp int1h-1 or the 9.5-kb int22h-1 sequence of the F8 gene cause hemophilia A in 1/30,000 males. These inversions are due to homologous recombination between the above sequences and their inverted copies on the same DNA molecule, respectively, int1h-2 and int22h-2 or int22h-3. We find that (1) int1h and int22h duplicated more than 25 million years ago; (2) the identity of the copies (>99%) of these sequences in humans and other primates is due to gene conversion; (3) gene conversion is most frequent in the internal regions of int22h; (4) breakpoints of int22h-related inversions also tend to involve the internal regions of int22h; (5) sequence variations in a sample of human X chromosomes defined eight haplotypes of int22h-1 and 27 of int22h-2 plus int22h-3; (6) the latter two sequences, which lie, respectively, 500 and 600 kb telomeric to int22h-1 are five-fold more identical when in cis than when in trans, thus suggesting that gene conversion may be predominantly intrachromosomal; (7) int1h, int22h, and flanking sequences evolved at a rate of about 0.1% substitutions per million years during the divergence between humans and other primates, except for int1h during the human-chimpanzee divergence, when its rate of evolution was significantly lower. This is reminiscent of the slower evolution of palindrome arms in the male specific regions of the Y chromosome and we propose, as an explanation, that intrachromosomal gene conversion and cosegregation of the duplicated regions favors retention of the ancestral sequence and thus reduces the evolution rate.

A further study of the recovery and purification of surfactin from fermentation broth by membrane filtration

Surfactin is a bacterial lipopeptide produced by Bacillus subtilis and is a powerful surfactant, having also antiviral, antibacterial and antitumor properties. The recovery and purification of surfactin from complex fermentation broths is a major obstacle to its commercialization; therefore, a two-step membrane filtration process was developed using a lab scale tangential flow filtration (TFF) unit with 10 kDa MWCO regenerated cellulose (RC) and polyethersulfone (PES)membranes at three different transmembrane pressure (TMP) of 1.5 bar, 2.0 bar and 2.5 bar. Two modes of filtrations were studied, with and without cleaning of membranes prior to UF-2. In a first step of ultrafiltration (UF-1), surfactin was retained effectively by membranes at above its critical micelle concentration (CMC); subsequently in UF-2, the retentate micelles were disrupted by addition of 50% (v/v) methanol solution to allow recovery of surfactin in the permeate. Main protein contaminants were effectively retained by the membrane in UF-2. Flux of permeates, rejection coefficient (R) of surfactin and proteinwere measured during the filtrations. Overall the three different TMPs applied have no significant effect in the filtrations and PES is the more suitable membrane to selectively separate surfactin from fermentation broth, achieving high recovery and level of purity. In addition this two-step UF process is scalable for larger volume of samples without affecting the original functionality of surfactin, although membranes permeability can be affected due to exposure to methanolic solution used in UF-2.

Initial results from Phase 2 of the international urban energy balance model comparison

Urban land surface schemes have been developed to model the distinct features of the urban surface and the associated energy exchange processes. These models have been developed for a range of purposes and make different assumptions related to the inclusion and representation of the relevant processes. Here, the first results of Phase 2 from an international comparison project to evaluate 32 urban land surface schemes are presented. This is the first large-scale systematic evaluation of these models. In four stages, participants were given increasingly detailed information about an urban site for which urban fluxes were directly observed. At each stage, each group returned their models' calculated surface energy balance fluxes. Wide variations are evident in the performance of the models for individual fluxes. No individual model performs best for all fluxes. Providing additional information about the surface generally results in better performance. However, there is clear evidence that poor choice of parameter values can cause a large drop in performance for models that otherwise perform well. As many models do not perform well across all fluxes, there is need for caution in their application, and users should be aware of the implications for applications and decision making.

Evaluation of PCR to detect Theileria parva in field-collected tick and bovine samples in Tanzania

The ability of PCR to detect infections of Theileria parva, the cause of East Coast Fever, in field-collected tick and bovine samples from Tanzania was evaluated. PCR-detected infection prevalence was high (15/20, 75%) in unfed adult Rhipicephalus appendiculatus ticks that fed as nymphs on an acutely-infected calf, but low (22/836, 2.6%) in unfed adult R. appendiculatus collected from field sites in Tanzania. Tick infection prevalence was comparable to that in previous studies that used salivary gland staining to detect T parva infection in field-collected host-seeking ticks. Of 282 naturally-exposed zebu calves, seven had PCR-positive buffy coat samples prior to detection of Theileria spp. parasites in stained huffy coat cells or lymph node biopsies. Evidence of Theileria spp. infections was detected in stained smears of lymph node biopsies from 109 calves (38.6%) and huffy coat samples from 81 (28.7%), while huffy coat samples from 66 (23.4%) were PCR-positive for T parva. Implications of these findings for the sensitivity and specificity of the PCR are discussed. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparing correlations of continuous observations from two independent populations using a sequential approach

A sequential study design generally makes more efficient use of available information than a fixed sample counterpart of equal power. This feature is gradually being exploited by researchers in genetic and epidemiological investigations that utilize banked biological resources and in studies where time, cost and ethics are prominent considerations. Recent work in this area has focussed on the sequential analysis of matched case-control studies with a dichotomous trait. In this paper, we extend the sequential approach to a comparison of the associations within two independent groups of paired continuous observations. Such a comparison is particularly relevant in familial studies of phenotypic correlation using twins. We develop a sequential twin method based on the intraclass correlation and show that use of sequential methodology can lead to a substantial reduction in the number of observations without compromising the study error rates. Additionally, our approach permits straightforward allowance for other explanatory factors in the analysis. We illustrate our method in a sequential heritability study of dysplasia that allows for the effect of body mass index and compares monozygotes with pairs of singleton sisters. Copyright (c) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Idealized SST anomaly regional climate model experiments: a note of caution

To date, a number of studies have focused on the influence of sea surface temperature (SST) on global and regional rainfall variability, with the majority of these focusing on certain ocean basins e.g. the Pacific, North Atlantic and Indian Ocean. In contrast, relatively less work has been done on the influence of the central South Atlantic, particularly in relation to rainfall over southern Africa. Previous work by the authors, using reanalysis data and general circulation model (GCM) experiments, has suggested that cold SST anomalies in the central southern Atlantic Ocean are linked to an increase in rainfall extremes across southern Africa. In this paper we present results from idealised regional climate model (RCM) experiments forced with both positive and negative SST anomalies in the southern Atlantic Ocean. These experiments reveal an unexpected response of rainfall over southern Africa. In particular it was found that SST anomalies of opposite sign can cause similar rainfall responses in the model experiments, with isolated increases in rainfall over central southern Africa as well as a large region of drying over the Mozambique Channel. The purpose of this paper is to highlight this finding and explore explanations for the behaviour of the climate model. It is suggested that the observed changes in rainfall might result from the redistribution of energy (associated with upper level changes to Rossby waves) or, of more concern, model error, and therefore the paper concludes that the results of idealised regional climate models forced with SST anomalies should be viewed cautiously.

Necessary and sufficient conditions for realizability of point processes

We give necessary and sufficient conditions for a pair of (generali- zed) functions 1(r1) and 2(r1, r2), ri 2X, to be the density and pair correlations of some point process in a topological space X, for ex- ample, Rd, Zd or a subset of these. This is an infinite-dimensional version of the classical “truncated moment” problem. Standard tech- niques apply in the case in which there can be only a bounded num- ber of points in any compact subset of X. Without this restriction we obtain, for compact X, strengthened conditions which are necessary and sufficient for the existence of a process satisfying a further re- quirement—the existence of a finite third order moment. We general- ize the latter conditions in two distinct ways when X is not compact.

Variation in the global-scale impacts of climate change on crop productivity due to climate model uncertainty and adaptation

Crop production is inherently sensitive to fluctuations in weather and climate and is expected to be impacted by climate change. To understand how this impact may vary across the globe many studies have been conducted to determine the change in yield of several crops to expected changes in climate. Changes in climate are typically derived from a single to no more than a few General Circulation Models (GCMs). This study examines the uncertainty introduced to a crop impact assessment when 14 GCMs are used to determine future climate. The General Large Area Model for annual crops (GLAM) was applied over a global domain to simulate the productivity of soybean and spring wheat under baseline climate conditions and under climate conditions consistent with the 2050s under the A1B SRES emissions scenario as simulated by 14 GCMs. Baseline yield simulations were evaluated against global country-level yield statistics to determine the model's ability to capture observed variability in production. The impact of climate change varied between crops, regions, and by GCM. The spread in yield projections due to GCM varied between no change and a reduction of 50%. Without adaptation yield response was linearly related to the magnitude of local temperature change. Therefore, impacts were greatest for countries at northernmost latitudes where warming is predicted to be greatest. However, these countries also exhibited the greatest potential for adaptation to offset yield losses by shifting the crop growing season to a cooler part of the year and/or switching crop variety to take advantage of an extended growing season. The relative magnitude of impacts as simulated by each GCM was not consistent across countries and between crops. It is important, therefore, for crop impact assessments to fully account for GCM uncertainty in estimating future climates and to be explicit about assumptions regarding adaptation.

Youth justice reform: redressing age discrimination against children?

This article considers whether the system of reprimands and final warnings in the youth justice system in England and Wales constitutes age discrimination for the purposes of human rights law. Whilst much youth justice discourse has addressed the use of diversionary measures that steer children away from formal justice processes, little attention has been paid to measures which negatively discriminate against children, in comparison to adults, without reasonable justification. The discussion contextualizes the issue within discourses on the sociology of childhood and youth justice, and considers why there is a general reluctance to recognize children as ‘victims’ of age discrimination.

Isolation of Actinomyces hyovaginalis from sheep and comparison with isolates obtained from pigs

Actinomyces hyovaginalis, an organism initially described from pigs, was recovered from nine sheep and a moufflon. Further strains of A. hyovaginalis were recovered from five samples from pigs over the same period. 16S rRNA sequencing and extensive phenotyping demonstrated high similarity between the ovine and porcine isolates; however differences with respect to erythritol, adonitol and l-arabitol fermentation were detected. Ovine isolates were made from various sample sites including abscesses and highlight the importance of the accurate identification of the various coryneform isolates which affect sheep. A. hyovaginalis can be added to the growing list of coryneforms which can cause disease in sheep including Corynebacterium pseudotuberculosis, Trueperella pyogenes and Arcanobacterium pluranimalium.

A complex system perspective on the emergence and spread of infectious diseases: integrating economic and ecological aspects

The emergence and spread of infectious diseases reflects the interaction of ecological and economic factors within an adaptive complex system. We review studies that address the role of economic factors in the emergence and spread of infectious diseases and identify three broad themes. First, the process of macro-economic growth leads to environmental encroaching, which is related to the emergence of infectious diseases. Second, there are a number of mutually reinforcing processes associated with the emergence/spread of infectious diseases. For example, the emergence and spread of infectious diseases can cause significant economic damages, which in turn may create the conditions for further disease spread. Also, the existence of a mutually reinforcing relationship between global trade and macroeconomic growth amplifies the emergence/spread of infectious diseases. Third, microeconomic approaches to infectious disease point to the adaptivity of human behavior, which simultaneously shapes the course of epidemics and responds to it. Most of the applied research has been focused on the first two aspects, and to a lesser extent on the third aspect. With respect to the latter, there is a lack of empirical research aimed at characterizing the behavioral component following a disease outbreak. Future research should seek to fill this gap and develop hierarchical econometric models capable of integrating both macro and micro-economic processes into disease ecology.

The long-term safety and efficacy of bilateral transplantation of human fetal striatal tissue in patients with mild to moderate Huntington's disease.

Huntington's disease (HD) is a fatal autosomal dominant neurodegenerative disease involving progressive motor, cognitive and behavioural decline, leading to death approximately 20 years after motor onset. The disease is characterised pathologically by an early and progressive striatal neuronal cell loss and atrophy, which has provided the rationale for first clinical trials of neural repair using fetal striatal cell transplantation. Between 2000 and 2003, the 'NEST-UK' consortium carried out bilateral striatal transplants of human fetal striatal tissue in five HD patients. This paper describes the long-term follow up over a 3-10-year postoperative period of the patients, grafted and non-grafted, recruited to this cohort using the 'Core assessment program for intracerebral transplantations-HD' assessment protocol. No significant differences were found over time between the patients, grafted and non-grafted, on any subscore of the Unified Huntington's Disease Rating Scale, nor on the Mini Mental State Examination. There was a trend towards a slowing of progression on some timed motor tasks in four of the five patients with transplants, but overall, the trial showed no significant benefit of striatal allografts in comparison with a reference cohort of patients without grafts. Importantly, no significant adverse or placebo effects were seen. Notably, the raclopride positron emission tomography (PET) signal in individuals with transplants, indicated that there was no obvious surviving striatal graft tissue. This study concludes that fetal striatal allografting in HD is safe. While no sustained functional benefit was seen, we conclude that this may relate to the small amount of tissue that was grafted in this safety study compared with other reports of more successful transplants in patients with HD.

Control without deception

Lying to participants offers an experimenter the enticing prospect of making “others' behaviour” a controlled variable, but is eschewed by experimental economists because it may pollute the pool of subjects. This paper proposes and implements a new experimental design, the Conditional Information Lottery, which offers all the benefits of deception without actually deceiving anyone. The design should be suitable for most economics experiments, and works by a modification of an already standard device, the Random Lottery incentive system. The deceptive scenarios of designs which use deceit are replaced with fictitious scenarios, each of which, from a subject's viewpoint, has a chance of being true. The design is implemented in a sequential play public good experiment prompted by Weimann's (1994) result, from a deceptive design, that subjects are more sensitive to freeriding than cooperation on the part of others. The experiment provides similar results to Weimann's, in that subjects are at least as cooperative when uninformed about others' behaviour as they are if reacting to high contributions. No deception is used and the data cohere well both internally and with other public goods experiments. In addition, simultaneous play is found to be more efficient than sequential play, and subjects contribute less at the end of a sequence than at the start. The results suggest pronounced elements of overconfidence, egoism and (biased) reciprocity in behaviour, which may explain decay in contributions in repeated play designs. The experiment shows there is a workable alternative to deception.

Atmosphere drives recent interannual variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5°N

The RAPID-MOCHA array has observed the Atlantic Meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) at 26.5°N since 2004. During 2009/2010, there was a transient 30% weakening of the AMOC driven by anomalies in geostrophic and Ekman transports. Here, we use simulations based on the Met Office Forecast Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM) to diagnose the relative importance of atmospheric forcings and internal ocean dynamics in driving the anomalous geostrophic circulation of 2009/10. Data assimilating experiments with FOAM accurately reproduce the mean strength and depth of the AMOC at 26.5°N. In addition, agreement between simulated and observed stream functions in the deep ocean is improved when we calculate the AMOC using a method that approximates the RAPID observations. The main features of the geostrophic circulation anomaly are captured by an ensemble of simulations without data-assimilation. These model results suggest that the atmosphere played a dominant role in driving recent interannual variability of the AMOC.