A decision support framework for infrastructure maintenance investment decision-making

Infrastructure management agencies are facing multiple challenges, including aging infrastructure, reduction in capacity of existing infrastructure, and availability of limited funds. Therefore, decision makers are required to think innovatively and develop inventive ways of using available funds. Maintenance investment decisions are generally made based on physical condition only. It is important to understand that spending money on public infrastructure is synonymous with spending money on people themselves. This also requires consideration of decision parameters, in addition to physical condition, such as strategic importance, socioeconomic contribution and infrastructure utilization. Consideration of multiple decision parameters for infrastructure maintenance investments can be beneficial in case of limited funding. Given this motivation, this dissertation presents a prototype decision support framework to evaluate trade-off, among competing infrastructures, that are candidates for infrastructure maintenance, repair and rehabilitation investments. Decision parameters' performances measured through various factors are combined to determine the integrated state of an infrastructure using Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT). The integrated state, cost and benefit estimates of probable maintenance actions are utilized alongside expert opinion to develop transition probability and reward matrices for each probable maintenance action for a particular candidate infrastructure. These matrices are then used as an input to the Markov Decision Process (MDP) for the finite-stage dynamic programming model to perform project (candidate)-level analysis to determine optimized maintenance strategies based on reward maximization. The outcomes of project (candidate)-level analysis are then utilized to perform network-level analysis taking the portfolio management approach to determine a suitable portfolio under budgetary constraints. The major decision support outcomes of the prototype framework include performance trend curves, decision logic maps, and a network-level maintenance investment plan for the upcoming years. The framework has been implemented with a set of bridges considered as a network with the assistance of the Pima County DOT, AZ. It is expected that the concept of this prototype framework can help infrastructure management agencies better manage their available funds for maintenance.

The influence of neurocognitive impairment, alcohol and other drug (AOD) use, and psychosocial factors on antiretroviral treatment adherence, service utilization and viral load among HIV-seropositive adults

Among people living with HIV (PLWH), adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) can be affected by problems of neurocognitive (NC) impairment, stress, alcohol and other drug (AOD) abuse, and other barriers. The aims of this research were to: (1) examine factors associated with NC impairment, (2) explore relationships between psychosocial variables with ART adherence and viral load (VL), and (3) evaluate the efficacy of an evidence-based intervention in improving ART adherence, increasing service utilization, and decreasing VL. The first study (n=370) was cross sectional and used structural equation modeling to test whether AOD use, years living with HIV, and time from HIV diagnosis to seeking care were associated with poorer NC functioning. The second study (n=246) used similar methods to test the hypothesis that stress, barriers to adherence, NC impairment, poor social support, and AOD use were related to lower VL mediated by ART adherence. The third study (n=243) evaluated an evidence-based, eight-session program to improve ART adherence, reduce VL, and increase service utilization in a randomized controlled trial. Study participants were PLWH living in South Florida, 18 to 60 years old, with a history of alcohol abuse enrolled from January 2009 through November 2012. Secondary analysis of available data showed: (1) scores on interference with executive functioning increased by 0.32 for each day of marijuana use and 1.18 for each year living with HIV, but no association was found between alcohol use and NC functioning; (2) each barrier to adherence was associated with a 10% decrease in adherence to ART and a 0.42 unit increase in VL (log10) and the relationship between barriers and VL was partially mediated by ART adherence; (3) participants in the evidence-based program were more likely than the comparison group to report an undetectable VL (OR=2.25, p<0.01) at 6 months, but not 3 months, post-intervention. Psychosocial factors affect VL, but ART adherence is essential in achieving an undetectable VL in PLWH.

Aerodynamic Load Characteristics Evaluation and Tri-Axial Performance Testing on Fiber Reinforced Polymer Connections and Metal Fasteners to Promote Hurricane Damage Mitigation

Damages during extreme wind events highlight the weaknesses of mechanical fasteners at the roof-to-wall connections in residential timber frame buildings. The allowable capacity of the metal fasteners is based on results of unidirectional component testing that do not simulate realistic tri-axial aerodynamic loading effects. The first objective of this research was to simulate hurricane effects and study hurricane-structure interaction at full-scale, facilitating better understanding of the combined impacts of wind, rain, and debris on inter-component connections at spatial and temporal scales. The second objective was to evaluate the performance of a non-intrusive roof-to-wall connection system using fiber reinforced polymer (FRP) materials and compare its load capacity to the capacity of an existing metal fastener under simulated aerodynamic loads. The Wall of Wind (WoW) testing performed using FRP connections on a one-story gable-roof timber structure instrumented with a variety of sensors, was used to create a database on aerodynamic and aero-hydrodynamic loading on roof-to-wall connections tested under several parameters: angles of attack, wind-turbulence content, internal pressure conditions, with and without effects of rain. Based on the aerodynamic loading results obtained from WoW tests, sets of three force components (tri-axial mean loads) were combined into a series of resultant mean forces, which were used to test the FRP and metal connections in the structures laboratory up to failure. A new component testing system and test protocol were developed for testing fasteners under simulated tri-axial loading as opposed to uni-axial loading. The tri-axial and uni-axial test results were compared for hurricane clips. Also, comparison was made between tri-axial load capacity of FRP and metal connections. The research findings demonstrate that the FRP connection is a viable option for use in timber roof-to-wall connection system. Findings also confirm that current testing methods of mechanical fasteners tend to overestimate the actual load capacities of a connector. Additionally, the research also contributes to the development a new testing protocol for fasteners using tri-axial simultaneous loads based on the aerodynamic database obtained from the WoW testing.

The Effect of Cognitive Load on Deception

The current study applied classic cognitive capacity models to examine the effect of cognitive load on deception. The study also examined whether the manipulation of cognitive load would result in the magnification of differences between liars and truth-tellers. In the first study, 87 participants engaged in videotaped interviews while being either deceptive or truthful about a target event. Some participants engaged in a concurrent secondary task while being interviewed. Performance on the secondary task was measured. As expected, truth tellers performed better on secondary task items than liars as evidenced by higher accuracy rates. These results confirm the long held assumption that being deceptive is more cognitively demanding than being truthful. In the second part of the study, the videotaped interviews of both liars and truth-tellers were shown to 69 observers. After watching the interviews, observers were asked to make a veracity judgment for each participant. Observers made more accurate veracity judgments when viewing participants who engaged in a concurrent secondary task than when viewing those who did not. Observers also indicated that participants who engaged in a concurrent secondary task appeared to think harder than participants who did not. This study provides evidence that engaging in deception is more cognitively demanding than telling the truth. As hypothesized, having participants engage in a concurrent secondary task led to the magnification of differences between liars and truth tellers. This magnification of differences led to more accurate veracity rates in a second group of observers. The implications for deception detection are discussed.

Branch and Price Solution Approach for Order Acceptance and Capacity Planning in Make-to-Order Operations

The increasing emphasis on mass customization, shortened product lifecycles, synchronized supply chains, when coupled with advances in information system, is driving most firms towards make-to-order (MTO) operations. Increasing global competition, lower profit margins, and higher customer expectations force the MTO firms to plan its capacity by managing the effective demand. The goal of this research was to maximize the operational profits of a make-to-order operation by selectively accepting incoming customer orders and simultaneously allocating capacity for them at the sales stage. For integrating the two decisions, a Mixed-Integer Linear Program (MILP) was formulated which can aid an operations manager in an MTO environment to select a set of potential customer orders such that all the selected orders are fulfilled by their deadline. The proposed model combines order acceptance/rejection decision with detailed scheduling. Experiments with the formulation indicate that for larger problem sizes, the computational time required to determine an optimal solution is prohibitive. This formulation inherits a block diagonal structure, and can be decomposed into one or more sub-problems (i.e. one sub-problem for each customer order) and a master problem by applying Dantzig-Wolfe’s decomposition principles. To efficiently solve the original MILP, an exact Branch-and-Price algorithm was successfully developed. Various approximation algorithms were developed to further improve the runtime. Experiments conducted unequivocally show the efficiency of these algorithms compared to a commercial optimization solver. The existing literature addresses the static order acceptance problem for a single machine environment having regular capacity with an objective to maximize profits and a penalty for tardiness. This dissertation has solved the order acceptance and capacity planning problem for a job shop environment with multiple resources. Both regular and overtime resources is considered. The Branch-and-Price algorithms developed in this dissertation are faster and can be incorporated in a decision support system which can be used on a daily basis to help make intelligent decisions in a MTO operation.

Development of Innovative Load Transfer Mechanism to Reduce Hurricane-Induced Failures in New and Existing Residential Construction

Implicit in current design practice of minimum uplift capacity, is the assumption that the connection's capacity is proportional to the number of fasteners per connection joint. This assumption may overestimate the capacity of joints by a factor of two or more and maybe the cause of connection failures in extreme wind events. The current research serves to modify the current practice by proposing a realistic relationship between the number of fasteners and the capacity of the joint. The research is also aimed at further development of non-intrusive continuous load path (CLP) connection system using Glass Fiber Reinforced Polymer (GFRP) and epoxy. Suitable designs were developed for stud to top plate and gable end connections and tests were performed to evaluate the ultimate load, creep and fatigue behavior. The objective was to determine the performance of the connections under simulated sustained hurricane conditions. The performance of the new connections was satisfactory.

Características estruturais e fotocatalíticas do compósito oxihidróxido de nióbio/vermiculita

The preparation of nanostructured materials using natural clays as support, has been studied in literature under the same are found in nature and consequently, have a low price. Generally, clays serve as supports for metal oxides by increasing the number of active sites present on the surface and can be applied for various purposes such as adsorption, catalysis and photocatalysis. Some of the materials that are currently highlighted are niobium compounds, in particular, its oxides, by its characteristics such as high acidity, rigidity, water insolubility, oxidative and photocatalytic properties. In this scenario, the study aimed preparing a composite material oxyhydroxide niobium (NbO2OH) / sodium vermiculite clay and evaluate its effectiveness with respect to the natural clay (V0) and NbO2OH. The composite was prepared by precipitation-deposition method and then characterized by X-ray diffraction, infrared spectroscopy (XRD), energy dispersive X-ray (EDS), thermal analysis (TG/DTG), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), N2 adsorption-desorption and investigation of distribution of load. The application of the material NbO2OH/V0 was divided in two steps: first through oxidation and adsorption methods, and second through photocatalytic activity using solar irradiation. Studies of adsorption, oxidation and photocatalytic oxidation monitored the percentage of color removal from the dye methylene blue (MB) by UV-Vis spectroscopy. The XRD showed a decrease in reflection d (001) clay after modification; the FTIR indicated the presence of both the clay when the oxyhydroxide niobium to present bands in 1003 cm-1 related to Si-O stretching bands and 800 cm-1 to the Nb-O stretching. The presence of niobium was also confirmed by EDS indicated that 17 % by mass amount of the metal. Thermal analysis showed thermal stability of the composite at 217 °C and micrographs showed that there was a decrease in particle size. The investigation of the surface charge of NbO2OH/V0 found that the material exhibits a heterogeneous surface with average low and high negative charges. Adsorption tests showed that the composite NbO2OH/V0 higher adsorption capacity to remove 56 % of AM, while the material removed from V0 only 13 % showed no NbO2OH and adsorptive capacity due to the formation of H-aggregates. The percent removal of dye color for the oxidation tests showed little difference from the adsorption, being 18 and 66 % removal of dye color for V0 and NbO2OH/V0 respectively. The NbO2OH/V0 material shows excellent photocatalytic activity managing to remove just 95,5 % in 180 minutes of the color of MB compared to 41,4 % and 82,2 % of V0 the NbO2OH, proving the formation of a new composite with distinct properties of its precursors.

A generalised formulation for computing the microbuckling load in periodic layered materials

Acknowledgments The financial support of the part of this research by The Royal Society, The Royal Academy of Engineering and The Carnegie Trust for the Universities of Scotland is gratefully acknowledged.

Cascade failure analysis of power grid using new load distribution law and node removal rule

The work is supported in part by NSFC (Grant no. 61172070), IRT of Shaanxi Province (2013KCT-04), EPSRC (Grant no.Ep/1032606/1).

A generalised formulation for computing the microbuckling load in periodic layered materials

Acknowledgments The financial support of the part of this research by The Royal Society, The Royal Academy of Engineering and The Carnegie Trust for the Universities of Scotland is gratefully acknowledged.

Cascade failure analysis of power grid using new load distribution law and node removal rule

The work is supported in part by NSFC (Grant no. 61172070), IRT of Shaanxi Province (2013KCT-04), EPSRC (Grant no.Ep/1032606/1).

System operational costs reduction with non-conventional reactive power sources

Wind energy installations are increasing in power systems worldwide and wind generation capacity tends to be located some distance from load centers. A conflict may arise at times of high wind generation when it becomes necessary to curtail wind energy in order to maintain conventional generators on-line for the provision of voltage control support at load centers. Using the island of Ireland as a case study and presenting commercially available reactive power support devices as possible solutions to the voltage control problems in urban areas, this paper explores the reduction in total generation costs resulting from the relaxation of the operational constraints requiring conventional generators to be kept on-line near load centers for reactive power support. The paper shows that by 2020 there will be possible savings of 87€m per annum and a reduction in wind curtailment of more than a percentage point if measures are taken to relax these constraints.

A Simple Model of Access and Capacity for Post-Secondary Schooling in Canada (Working Paper 40)

This paper develops a simple model of the post-secondary education system in Canada that provides a useful basis for thinking about issues of capacity and access. It uses a supply-demand framework, where demand comes on the part of individuals wanting places in the system, and supply is determined not only by various directives and agreements between educational ministries and institutions (and other factors), but also the money available to universities and colleges through tuition fees. The supply and demand curves are then put together with a stylised tuition-setting rule to describe the “market” of post-secondary schooling. This market determines the number of students in the system, and their characteristics, especially as they relate to “ability” and family background, the latter being especially relevant to access issues. The manner in which various changes in the system – including tuition fees, student financial aid, government support for institutions, and the returns to schooling – are then discussed in terms of how they affect the number of students and their characteristics, or capacity and access.

Peer Support to Facilitate Knowledge Sharing on Complex Tasks

This thesis explores how to design a peer support system to facilitate self-organized knowledge sharing in non-formal learning environments, in particular when learners work on complex tasks. The peer support system aims to replace two teacher-led didactic arrangements: selecting a tutor at the initial stage, and guidance during the interaction process (Dillenbourg, 1999; Topping, 1996). Such a system has previously been developed by Van Rosmalen (2008) and De Bakker (2010) and has been tentatively used to facilitate knowledge sharing on content-related questions. In this thesis, we would like to find out how to further improve the design of this peer support system, especially to facilitate knowledge sharing on complex tasks. Since little pedagogical theory is available to inform the design of our peer support system, this thesis attempts to apply cognitive load theory (Sweller, Van Merriënboer, & Paas, 1998; Van Merriënboer & Sweller, 2005) that informs instructional designs in classroom settings to the design of our peer support system in Learning Networks.

Adapting prospective structural analysis to strengthen sustainable management and capacity building in community-based natural resource management contexts

Local communities collectively managing common pool resources can play an important role in sustainable management, but they often lack the skills and context-specific tools required for such management. The complex dynamics of social-ecological systems (SES), the need for management capacities, and communities’ limited empowerment and participation skills present challenges for community-based natural resource management (CBNRM) strategies. We analyzed the applicability of prospective structural analysis (PSA), a strategic foresight tool, to support decision making and to foster sustainable management and capacity building in CBNRM contexts and the modifications necessary to use the tool in such contexts. By testing PSA in three SES in Colombia, Mexico, and Argentina, we gathered information regarding the potential of this tool and its adaptation requirements. The results suggest that the tool can be adapted to these contexts and contribute to fostering sustainable management and capacity building. It helped identify the systems’ dynamics, thus increasing the communities’ knowledge about their SES and informing the decision-making process. Additionally, it drove a learning process that both fostered empowerment and built participation skills. The process demanded both time and effort, and required external monitoring and facilitation, but community members could be trained to master it. Thus, we suggest that the PSA technique has the potential to strengthen CBNRM and that other initiatives could use it, but they must be aware of these requirements.