Um estudo da vulnerabilidade socioclimática no Brasil e no mundo

The Socio Climate Vulnerability Index (IVSC, Portuguese acronym) aims to expose spatially and in a comparative basis, human settlement areas that are more susceptible to the potential risks posed by climate change. To access this vulnerability, the IVSC draws on the aggregation of adaptive capacity and sensitivity indicators (Human Development Index and population density) and an indicator of projected climate change (Regional Climate Change Index-IRCM). The IVSC can be applied to any spatial scale, as long as data in reasonable resolution.is available. Knowing the spatial distribution of vulnerability is an important strategic step in development and implementation of measures that seeks to improve human development and the preparedness of society for future environmental changes. In addition, the production and comparison climate change vulnerability indexes is an important exercise to improve gradually the quality of information provided to decision makers and stakeholders in the management of measures involving climate change adaptation

Um estudo da vulnerabilidade socioclimática no Brasil e no mundo

The Socio Climate Vulnerability Index (IVSC, Portuguese acronym) aims to expose spatially and in a comparative basis, human settlement areas that are more susceptible to the potential risks posed by climate change. To access this vulnerability, the IVSC draws on the aggregation of adaptive capacity and sensitivity indicators (Human Development Index and population density) and an indicator of projected climate change (Regional Climate Change Index-IRCM). The IVSC can be applied to any spatial scale, as long as data in reasonable resolution.is available. Knowing the spatial distribution of vulnerability is an important strategic step in development and implementation of measures that seeks to improve human development and the preparedness of society for future environmental changes. In addition, the production and comparison climate change vulnerability indexes is an important exercise to improve gradually the quality of information provided to decision makers and stakeholders in the management of measures involving climate change adaptation

Species Distribution Modeling for Conservation Purposes

Species distribution models (SDMs) can be useful for different conservation purposes. We discuss the importance of fitting spatial scale and using current records and relevant predictors aiming conservation. We choose jaguar (Panthera onca) as a target species and Brazil and Atlantic Forest biome as study areas. We tested two different extents (continent and biome) and resolutions (similar to 4 Km and similar to 1 Km) in Maxent with 186 records and 11 predictors (bioclimatic, elevation, land-use and landscape structure). All models presented satisfactory AUC values (>0.70) and low omission errors (<23%). SDMs were scale-sensitive as the use of reduced extent implied in significant gains to model performance generating more constrained and real predictive distribution maps. Continental-scale models performed poorly in predicting potential current jaguar distribution, but they reached the historic distribution. Specificity increased significantly from coarse to finer-scale models due to the reduction of overprediction. The variability of environmental space (E-space) differed for most of climatic variables between continental and biome-scale and the representation of the E-space by predictors differed significantly (t = 2.42, g.I. = 9, P < 0.05). Refining spatial scale, incorporating landscape variables and improving the quality of biological data are essential for improving model prediction for conservation purposes.

Habitat alteration and community-level effects of an invasive ecosystem engineer: a case study along the coast of NSW, Australia

We investigated the effects of the habitat-modifying green algae Caulerpa taxifolia on meiobenthic communities along the coast of New South Wales, Australia. Samples were taken from unvegetated sediments, sediments underneath the native seagrass Zostera capricorni, and sediments invaded by C. taxifolia at 3 sites along the coast. Meiofaunal responses to invasion varied in type and magnitude depending on the site, ranging from a slight increase to a substantial reduction in meiofauna and nematode abundances and diversity. The multivariate structure of meiofauna communities and nematode assemblages, in particular, differed significantly in sediments invaded by C. taxifolia when compared to native habitats, but the magnitude of this dissimilarity differed between the sites. These differential responses of meiofauna to C. taxifolia were explained by different sediment redox potentials. Sediments with low redox potential showed significantly lower fauna abundances, lower numbers of meiofaunal taxa and nematode species and more distinct assemblages. The response of meiofauna to C. taxifolia also depended on spatial scale. Whereas significant loss of benthic biodiversity was observed locally at one of the sites, at the larger scale C. taxifolia promoted an overall increase in nematode species richness by favouring species that were absent from the native environments. Finally, we suggest there might be some time-lags associated with the impacts of C. taxifolia and point to the importance of considering the time since invasion when evaluating the impact of invasive species.

Biophysical interactions in the Cabo Frio upwelling system, southeastern Brazil

The rising of cold water from deeper levels characterizes coastal upwelling systems. This flow makes nutrients available in the euphotic layer, which enhances phytoplankton production and growth. On the Brazilian coast, upwelling is most intense in the Cabo Frio region (RJ). The basic knowledge of this system was reviewed in accordance with concepts of biophysical interactions. The high frequency and amplitude of the prevailing winds are the main factor promoting the rise of South Atlantic Central Water, but meanders and eddies in the Brazil Current as well as local topography and coast line are also important. Upwelling events are common during spring/summer seasons. Primary biomass is exported by virtue of the water circulation and is also controlled by rapid zooplankton predation. Small pelagic fish regulate plankton growth and in their turn are preyed on by predatory fish. Sardine furnishes an important regional fish stock. Shoreline irregularities define the embayment formation of the Marine Extractive Reserve of Arraial do Cabo making it an area with evident different intensities of upwelled water that harbors high species diversity. Consequently, on a small spatial scale there are environments with tropical and subtropical features, a point to be explored as a particularity of this ecosystem.

The use of image analysis systems for the assesment of zooplankton physiological rates and carbon fluxes

Trabajo realizado por: Garijo, J. C., Hernández León, S.

Short-term variability of picoplankton across the wind-shear region south of Gran Canaria

[EN]We have studied the short-term variability -at temporal scale of days and spatial scale of 5 km- of the hydrographic field, organic and inorganic nutrients, chlorophyll and picoplanktonic abundances, across a 40 Km section crossing a frontal system south of Gran Canaria, where anticyclonic eddies in early-stages of formation and convergent fronts have been widely reported in the past. Each cruise consisted in a 3-4 daily-repeated section, and was carried out at the same period of the year (May) during two consecutive years (2011 and 2012). The main goal of our study was to analyze the picoplankton response to short-term variability at scales not considered in regular oceanographic samplings, even in regions with complex hydrographic fields.

Erosione e sollevamento nell'arco calabro-peloritano

The Calabrian-Peloritani arc represents key site to unravel evolution of surface processes on top of subducting lithosphere. During the Pleistocene, in fact the arc uplifted at rate of the order of about 1mm/yr, forming high-standing low-relief upland (figure 2). Our study is focused on the relationship between tectonic and land evolution in the Sila Massif, Messina strait and Peloritani Mts. Landforms reflect a competition between tectonic, climatic, and surficial processes. Many landscape evolution models that explore feedbacks between these competing processes, given steady forcing, predict a state of erosional equilibrium, where the rates of river incision and hillslope erosion balance rock uplift. It has been suggested that this may be the final constructive stage of orogenic systems. Assumptions of steady erosion and incision are used in the interpretation of exhumation and uplift rates from different geologic data, and in the formulation of fluvial incision and hillslope evolution models. In the Sila massif we carried out cosmogenic isotopes analysis on 24 samples of modern fluvial sediments to constrain long-term (~103 yr) erosion rate averaged on the catchment area. 35 longitudinal rivers profiles have been analyzed to study the tectonic signal on the landscape evolution. The rivers analyzed exhibit a wide variety of profile forms, diverging from equilibrium state form. Generally the river profiles show at least 2 and often 3 distinct concave-up knickpoint-bounded segments, characterized by different value of concavity and steepness indices. River profiles suggest three main stages of incision. The values of ks and θ in the lower segments evidence a decrease in river incision, due probably to increasing uplift rate. The cosmogenic erosion rates pointed out that old landscape upland is eroding slowly at ~0.1 mm/yr. In the contrary, the flanks of the massif is eroding faster with value from 0.4 to 0.5 mm/yr due to river incision and hillslope processes. Cosmogenic erosion rates mach linearly with steepness indices and with average hillslope gradient. In the Messina area the long term erosion rate from low-T thermochronometry are of the same order than millennium scale cosmogenic erosion rate (1-2 mm/yr). In this part of the chain the fast erosion is active since several million years, probably controlled by extensional tectonic regime. In the Peloritani Mts apatite fission-track and (U-Th)/He thermochronometry are applied to constraint the thermal history of the basement rock. Apatite fission-track ages range between 29.0±5.5 and 5.5±0.9 Ma while apatite (U-Th)/He ages vary from 19.4 to 1.0 Ma. Most of the AFT ages are younger than the overlying terrigenous sequence that in turn postdates the main orogenic phase. Through the coupling of the thermal modelling with the stratigraphic record, a Middle Miocene thermal event due to tectonic burial is unravel. This event affected a inner-intermediate portion of the Peloritani belt confined by young AFT data (<15 Ma) distribution. We interpret this thermal event as due to an out-of–sequence thrusting occurring in the inner portion of the belt. Young (U-Th)/He ages (c. 5 Ma) record a final exhumation stage with increasing rates of denudation since the Pliocene times due to postorogenic extensional tectonics and regional uplift. In the final chapter we change the spatial scale to insert digital topography analysis and field data within a geodynamic model that can explain surface evidence produced by subduction process.

Genetic variability and structuring of deep Corallium rubrum (Linnaeus, 1758) populations

ABSTRACT Given the decline of shallow-water red coral populations resulting from over-exploitation and mass mortality events, deeper populations below 50 metres depth (mesophotic populations) are currently the most harvested; unfortunately, very little is known about their biology and ecology. The persistence of these populations is tightly linked to their adult density, reproductive success, larval dispersal and recruitment. Moreover, for their conservation, it is paramount understand processes such as connectivity within and among populations. Here, for the first time, genetic variability and structuring of Corallium rubrum populations collected in the Tyrrhenian Sea ranging from 58 to 118 metres were analyzed using ten microsatellite loci and two mitochondrial markers (mtMSH and MtC). The aims of the work were 1) to examine patterns of genetic diversity within each geographic area (Elba, Ischia and Praiano) and 2) to define population structuring at different spatial scales (from tens of metres to hundreds of kilometres). Based on microsatellite data set, significant deviations from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium due to elevated heterozygote deficiencies were detected in all samples, probably related to the presence of null alleles and/or inbreeding, as was previously observed in shallow-water populations. Moreover, significant levels of genetic differentiation were observed at all spatial scale, suggesting a recent isolation of populations. Biological factors which act at small spatial scale and/or abiotic factors at larger scale (e.g. summer gyres or absence of suitable substrata for settlement) could determine this genetic isolation. Using mitochondrial markers, significant differences were found only at wider scale (between Tuscany and Campania regions). These results could be related to the different mutation rate of the molecular makers or to the occurrence of some historical links within regions. A significant isolation by distance pattern was then observed using both data sets, confirming the restricted larval dispersal capability of the species. Therefore, the hypothesis that deeper populations may act as a source of larvae helping recovery of threatened shallow-water populations is not proved. Conservation strategies have to take into account these results, and management plans of deep and currently harvested populations have to be defined at a regional or sub regional level, similarly to shallow-water populations. Nevertheless, further investigations should be needed to understand better the genetic structuring of this species in the mesophotic zone, e.g. extending studies to other Mediterranean deep-water populations.

Influence of pollination and seed dispersal on the genetic population structure of two Commiphora species in Madagascar and South Africa

Pollination and seed dispersal are important ecological processes for the regeneration of plant populations and both vectors for gene exchange between plant populations. For my thesis, I studied the pollination ecology of the South African tree Commiphora harveyi (Burseraceae) and compared it with C. guillauminii from Madagascar. Both species have low visitation rates and a low number of pollinating insect species, resulting in a low fruit set. While their pollination ecology is very similar, they differ in their seed dispersal with a low seed dispersal rate in the Malagasy and a high seed dispersal rate in the South African species. This should be reflected in a stronger genetic differentiation among populations in the Malagasy than in the South African species. My results, based on AFLP markers, contradict these expectations, the overall differentiation was lower in the Malagasy (FST = 0.05) than in the South African species (FST = 0.16). However, at a smaller spatial scale (below 3 km), the Malagasy species was genetically more strongly differentiated than the South African species, which was reflected by the high inter-population variance within the sample site (C. guillauminii: 72.2 - 85.5 %; C. harveyi: 8.4 - 14.5 %). This strong differentiation could arise from limited gene flow, which was confirmed by spatial autocorrelation analyses. The shape of the autocorrelogram suggested that gene exchange between individuals occurred only up to 3 km in the Malagasy species, whereas up to 30 km in the South African species. These results on the genetic structure correspond to the expectations based on seed dispersal data. Thus, seed dispersal seems to be a key factor for the genetic structure in plant populations on a local scale.

Statistical Physics and Modeling of Human Mobility

In this thesis, we extend some ideas of statistical physics to describe the properties of human mobility. By using a database containing GPS measures of individual paths (position, velocity and covered space at a spatial scale of 2 Km or a time scale of 30 sec), which includes the 2% of the private vehicles in Italy, we succeed in determining some statistical empirical laws pointing out "universal" characteristics of human mobility. Developing simple stochastic models suggesting possible explanations of the empirical observations, we are able to indicate what are the key quantities and cognitive features that are ruling individuals' mobility. To understand the features of individual dynamics, we have studied different aspects of urban mobility from a physical point of view. We discuss the implications of the Benford's law emerging from the distribution of times elapsed between successive trips. We observe how the daily travel-time budget is related with many aspects of the urban environment, and describe how the daily mobility budget is then spent. We link the scaling properties of individual mobility networks to the inhomogeneous average durations of the activities that are performed, and those of the networks describing people's common use of space with the fractional dimension of the urban territory. We study entropy measures of individual mobility patterns, showing that they carry almost the same information of the related mobility networks, but are also influenced by a hierarchy among the activities performed. We discover that Wardrop's principles are violated as drivers have only incomplete information on traffic state and therefore rely on knowledge on the average travel-times. We propose an assimilation model to solve the intrinsic scattering of GPS data on the street network, permitting the real-time reconstruction of traffic state at a urban scale.

Silicon Photonics Integrated Circuits for Flexible Optical Systems

This dissertation deals with the design and the characterization of novel reconfigurable silicon-on-insulator (SOI) devices to filter and route optical signals on-chip. Design is carried out through circuit simulations based on basic circuit elements (Building Blocks, BBs) in order to prove the feasibility of an approach allowing to move the design of Photonic Integrated Circuits (PICs) toward the system level. CMOS compatibility and large integration scale make SOI one of the most promising material to realize PICs. The concepts of generic foundry and BB based circuit simulations for the design are emerging as a solution to reduce the costs and increase the circuit complexity. To validate the BB based approach, the development of some of the most important BBs is performed first. A novel tunable coupler is also presented and it is demonstrated to be a valuable alternative to the known solutions. Two novel multi-element PICs are then analysed: a narrow linewidth single mode resonator and a passband filter with widely tunable bandwidth. Extensive circuit simulations are carried out to determine their performance, taking into account fabrication tolerances. The first PIC is based on two Grating Assisted Couplers in a ring resonator (RR) configuration. It is shown that a trade-off between performance, resonance bandwidth and device footprint has to be performed. The device could be employed to realize reconfigurable add-drop de/multiplexers. Sensitivity with respect to fabrication tolerances and spurious effects is however observed. The second PIC is based on an unbalanced Mach-Zehnder interferometer loaded with two RRs. Overall good performance and robustness to fabrication tolerances and nonlinear effects have confirmed its applicability for the realization of flexible optical systems. Simulated and measured devices behaviour is shown to be in agreement thus demonstrating the viability of a BB based approach to the design of complex PICs.

Climate change in Libya and desertification of Jifara Plain

The study was arranged to manifest its objectives through preceding it with an intro-duction. Particular attention was paid in the second part to detect the physical settings of the study area, together with an attempt to show the climatic characteristics in Libya. In the third part, observed temporal and spatial climate change in Libya was investigated through the trends of temperature, precipitation, relative humidity and cloud amount over the peri-ods (1946-2000), (1946-1975), and (1976-2000), comparing the results with the global scales. The forth part detected the natural and human causes of climate change concentrat-ing on the greenhouse effect. The potential impacts of climate change on Libya were ex-amined in the fifth chapter. As a case study, desertification of Jifara Plain was studied in the sixth part. In the seventh chapter, projections and mitigations of climate change and desertification were discussed. Ultimately, the main results and recommendations of the study were summarized. In order to carry through the objectives outlined above, the following methods and approaches were used: a simple linear regression analysis was computed to detect the trends of climatic parameters over time; a trend test based on a trend-to-noise-ratio was applied for detecting linear or non-linear trends; the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test for trend was used to reveal the behavior of the trends and their significance; PCA was applied to construct the all-Libya climatic parameters trends; aridity index after Walter-Lieth was shown for computing humid respectively arid months in Libya; correlation coefficient, (after Pearson) for detecting the teleconnection between sun spot numbers, NAOI, SOI, GHGs, and global warming, climate changes in Libya; aridity index, after De Martonne, to elaborate the trends of aridity in Jifara Plain; Geographical Information System and Re-mote Sensing techniques were applied to clarify the illustrations and to monitor desertifi-cation of Jifara Plain using the available satellite images MSS, TM, ETM+ and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM). The results are explained by 88 tables, 96 figures and 10 photos. Temporal and spatial temperature changes in Libya indicated remarkably different an-nual and seasonal trends over the long observation period 1946-2000 and the short obser-vation periods 1946-1975 and 1976-2000. Trends of mean annual temperature were posi-tive at all study stations except at one from 1946-2000, negative trends prevailed at most stations from 1946-1975, while strongly positive trends were computed at all study stations from 1976-2000 corresponding with the global warming trend. Positive trends of mean minimum temperatures were observed at all reference stations from 1946-2000 and 1976-2000, while negative trends prevailed at most stations over the period 1946-1975. For mean maximum temperature, positive trends were shown from 1946-2000 and from 1976-2000 at most stations, while most trends were negative from 1946-1975. Minimum tem-peratures increased at nearly more than twice the rate of maximum temperatures at most stations. In respect of seasonal temperature, warming mostly occurred in summer and au-tumn in contrast to the global observations identifying warming mostly in winter and spring in both study periods. Precipitation across Libya is characterized by scanty and sporadically totals, as well as high intensities and very high spatial and temporal variabilities. From 1946-2000, large inter-annual and intra-annual variabilities were observed. Positive trends of annual precipi-tation totals have been observed from 1946-2000, negative trends from 1976-2000 at most stations. Variabilities of seasonal precipitation over Libya are more strikingly experienced from 1976-2000 than from 1951-1975 indicating a growing magnitude of climate change in more recent times. Negative trends of mean annual relative humidity were computed at eight stations, while positive trends prevailed at seven stations from 1946-2000. For the short observation period 1976-2000, positive trends were computed at most stations. Annual cloud amount totals decreased at most study stations in Libya over both long and short periods. Re-markably large spatial variations of climate changes were observed from north to south over Libya. Causes of climate change were discussed showing high correlation between tempera-ture increasing over Libya and CO2 emissions; weakly positive correlation between pre-cipitation and North Atlantic Oscillation index; negative correlation between temperature and sunspot numbers; negative correlation between precipitation over Libya and Southern Oscillation Index. The years 1992 and 1993 were shown as the coldest in the 1990s result-ing from the eruption of Mount Pinatubo, 1991. Libya is affected by climate change in many ways, in particular, crop production and food security, water resources, human health, population settlement and biodiversity. But the effects of climate change depend on its magnitude and the rate with which it occurs. Jifara Plain, located in northwestern Libya, has been seriously exposed to desertifica-tion as a result of climate change, landforms, overgrazing, over-cultivation and population growth. Soils have been degraded, vegetation cover disappeared and the groundwater wells were getting dry in many parts. The effect of desertification on Jifara Plain appears through reducing soil fertility and crop productivity, leading to long-term declines in agri-cultural yields, livestock yields, plant standing biomass, and plant biodiversity. Desertifi-cation has also significant implications on livestock industry and the national economy. Desertification accelerates migration from rural and nomadic areas to urban areas as the land cannot support the original inhabitants. In the absence of major shifts in policy, economic growth, energy prices, and con-sumer trends, climate change in Libya and desertification of Jifara Plain are expected to continue in the future. Libya cooperated with United Nations and other international organizations. It has signed and ratified a number of international and regional agreements which effectively established a policy framework for actions to mitigate climate change and combat deserti-fication. Libya has implemented several laws and legislative acts, with a number of ancil-lary and supplementary rules to regulate. Despite the current efforts and ongoing projects being undertaken in Libya in the field of climate change and desertification, urgent actions and projects are needed to mitigate climate change and combat desertification in the near future.

On seeing the trees and the forest: Single-signal and multisignal analysis of periictal intracranial EEG

Epileptic seizures are associated with a dysregulation of electrical brain activity on many different spatial scales. To better understand the dynamics of epileptic seizures, that is, how the seizures initiate, propagate, and terminate, it is important to consider changes of electrical brain activity on different spatial scales. Herein we set out to analyze periictal electrical brain activity on comparatively small and large spatial scales by assessing changes in single intracranial electroencephalography (EEG) signals and of averaged interdependences of pairs of EEG signals.

DYNAMICS AND CONTROL OF REACTIVE DISTILLATION PROCESS FOR MONOMER SYNTHESIS OF POLYCARBONATE PLANTS

Polycarbonate (PC) is an important engineering thermoplastic that is currently produced in large industrial scale using bisphenol A and monomers such as phosgene. Since phosgene is highly toxic, a non-phosgene approach using diphenyl carbonate (DPC) as an alternative monomer, as developed by Asahi Corporation of Japan, is a significantly more environmentally friendly alternative. Other advantages include the use of CO2 instead of CO as raw material and the elimination of major waste water production. However, for the production of DPC to be economically viable, reactive-distillation units are needed to obtain the necessary yields by shifting the reaction-equilibrium to the desired products and separating the products at the point where the equilibrium reaction occurs. In the field of chemical reaction engineering, there are many reactions that are suffering from the low equilibrium constant. The main goal of this research is to determine the optimal process needed to shift the reactions by using appropriate control strategies of the reactive distillation system. An extensive dynamic mathematical model has been developed to help us investigate different control and processing strategies of the reactive distillation units to increase the production of DPC. The high-fidelity dynamic models include extensive thermodynamic and reaction-kinetics models while incorporating the necessary mass and energy balance of the various stages of the reactive distillation units. The study presented in this document shows the possibility of producing DPC via one reactive distillation instead of the conventional two-column, with a production rate of 16.75 tons/h corresponding to start reactants materials of 74.69 tons/h of Phenol and 35.75 tons/h of Dimethyl Carbonate. This represents a threefold increase over the projected production rate given in the literature based on a two-column configuration. In addition, the purity of the DPC produced could reach levels as high as 99.5% with the effective use of controls. These studies are based on simulation done using high-fidelity dynamic models.