Comparative advantage in demand: Experimental evidence of preferences for genetically modified food in the United States and European Union

The United States (US) exports more than US$6 billion in agricultural commodities to the European Union (EU) each year, but one issue carries the potential to diminish this trade: use of biotechnology in food production. The EU has adopted more stringent policies towards biotechnology than the US. Understanding differences in European and American policies towards genetically modified (GM) foods requires a greater understanding of consumers' attitudes and preferences. This paper reports results from the first large-scale, cross-Atlantic study to analyse consumer demand for genetically modified food in a non-hypothetical market environment. We strongly reject the frequent if convenient assumption in trade theory that consumer preferences are identical across countries: the median level of compensation demanded by English and French consumers to consume a GM food is found to be more than twice that in any of the US locations. Results have important implications for trade theory, which typically focusses on differences in specialization, comparative advantage and factor endowments across countries, and for on-going trade disputes at the World Trade Organization.

Time-varying coefficients in the almost ideal demand system: An empirical appraisal

This paper provides a generalisation of the structural time series version of the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) that allows for time-varying coefficients (TVC/AIDS) in the presence of cross-equation constraints. An empirical appraisal of the TVC/AIDS is made using a dynamic AIDS with trending intercept as the baseline model with a data set from the Italian Household Budget Survey (1986-2001). The assessment is based on four criteria: adherence to theoretical constraints, statistical diagnostics on residuals, forecasting performance and economic meaningfulness. No clear evidence is found for superior performance of the TVC/AIDS, apart from improved short-term forecasts.

Time patterns in UK demand for alcohol and tobacco: an application of the EM algorithm

Capturing the pattern of structural change is a relevant task in applied demand analysis, as consumer preferences may vary significantly over time. Filtering and smoothing techniques have recently played an increasingly relevant role. A dynamic Almost Ideal Demand System with random walk parameters is estimated in order to detect modifications in consumer habits and preferences, as well as changes in the behavioural response to prices and income. Systemwise estimation, consistent with the underlying constraints from economic theory, is achieved through the EM algorithm. The proposed model is applied to UK aggregate consumption of alcohol and tobacco, using quarterly data from 1963 to 2003. Increased alcohol consumption is explained by a preference shift, addictive behaviour and a lower price elasticity. The dynamic and time-varying specification is consistent with the theoretical requirements imposed at each sample point. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Inclusion of nonlinear demand-supply relationships within large-scale partial equilibrium linear programming models

This paper presents a new method for the inclusion of nonlinear demand and supply relationships within a linear programming model. An existing method for this purpose is described first and its shortcomings are pointed out before showing how the new approach overcomes those difficulties and how it provides a more accurate and 'smooth' (rather than a kinked) approximation of the nonlinear functions as well as dealing with equilibrium under perfect competition instead of handling just the monopolistic situation. The workings of the proposed method are illustrated by extending a previously available sectoral model for the UK agriculture.

Testing symmetry and homogeneity in the almost ideal demand system with co-integrated data using fully modified estimation and the bootstrap

Conventional seemingly unrelated estimation of the almost ideal demand system is shown to lead to small sample bias and distortions in the size of a Wald test for symmetry and homogeneity when the data are co-integrated. A fully modified estimator is developed in an attempt to remedy these problems. It is shown that this estimator reduces the small sample bias but fails to eliminate the size distortion.. Bootstrapping is shown to be ineffective as a method of removing small sample bias in both the conventional and fully modified estimators. Bootstrapping is effective, however, as a method of removing. size distortion and performs equally well in this respect with both estimators.

An evaluation of the costs of making specific secondary metabolites: does the yield penalty incurred by host plant resistance to insects due to competition for resources?

The presumption that the synthesis of 'defence' compounds in plants must incur some 'trade-off' or penalty in terms of annual crop yields has been used to explain observed inverse correlations between resistance to herbivores and rates of growth or photosynthesis. An analysis of the cost of making secondary compounds suggests that this accounts for only a small part of the overall carbon budget of annual crop plants. Even the highest reported amounts of secondary metabolites found in different crop species (flavonoids, allylisothiocyanates, hydroxamic acids, 2-tridecanone) represent a carbon demand that can be satisfied by less than an hour's photosynthesis. Similar considerations apply to secondary compounds containing nitrogen or sulphur, which are unlikely to represent a major investment compared to the cost of making proteins, the major demand for these elements. Decreases in growth and photosynthesis in response to stress are more likely the result of programmed down-regulation. Observed correlations between yield and low contents of unpalatable or toxic compounds may be the result of parallel selection during the refinement of crop species by humans.

Bayesian analysis of an inverse Gaussian correlated frailty model

In survival analysis frailty is often used to model heterogeneity between individuals or correlation within clusters. Typically frailty is taken to be a continuous random effect, yielding a continuous mixture distribution for survival times. A Bayesian analysis of a correlated frailty model is discussed in the context of inverse Gaussian frailty. An MCMC approach is adopted and the deviance information criterion is used to compare models. As an illustration of the approach a bivariate data set of corneal graft survival times is analysed. (C) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The seasonal forecast of electricity demand: A hierarchical Bayesian model with climatological weather generator

In this paper we focus on the one year ahead prediction of the electricity peak-demand daily trajectory during the winter season in Central England and Wales. We define a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting the winter trajectories and present results based on the past observed weather. Thanks to the flexibility of the Bayesian approach, we are able to produce the marginal posterior distributions of all the predictands of interest. This is a fundamental progress with respect to the classical methods. The results are encouraging in both skill and representation of uncertainty. Further extensions are straightforward at least in principle. The main two of those consist in conditioning the weather generator model with respect to additional information like the knowledge of the first part of the winter and/or the seasonal weather forecast. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Numbers of antral follicles during follicular waves in cattle: Evidence for high variation among animals, very high repeatability in individuals, and an inverse association with serum follicle-stimulating hormone concentrations

The extent, causes, and physiological significance of the variation in number of follicles growing during ovarian follicular waves in human beings and cattle are unknown. Therefore, the present study examined the variability and repeatability in numbers of follicles 3 mm or greater in diameter during the follicular waves in bovine estrous cycles, and we determined if the variation in number of follicles during waves was associated with alterations in secretion of FSH, estradiol, inhibin, and insulin-like growth factor I (IGF-I). Dairy cattle were subjected to twice-daily ultrasound analysis to count total number of antral follicles 3 mm or greater in diameter throughout 138 different follicular waves. In another study, blood samples were taken at frequent intervals from cows that consistently had low or very high numbers of follicles during waves and were subjected to immunoassays. Results indicate the following: First, despite an approximately sevenfold variation in number of follicles during waves among animals and marked differences in age, stage of lactation, and season of the year, a very highly repeatable (0.95) number of follicles 3 mm or greater in diameter is maintained during the ovulatory and nonovulatory follicular waves of individuals. Second, variation in number of follicles 3 mm or greater in diameter during waves and the inverse association of number of follicles during waves with FSH are not directly explained by alterations in the patterns of secretion of estradiol, inhibin, or IGF-I. Third, ovarian ultrasound analysis can be used reliably by investigators to identify cattle that consistently have low or high numbers of follicles during waves, thus providing a novel experimental model to determine the causes and physiological significance of the high variation in antral follicle number during follicular waves among single-ovulating species, such as cattle or humans.

Mechanisms of inverse agonist action at D-2 dopamine receptors

1 Mechanisms of inverse agonist action at the D-2(short) dopamine receptor have been examined. 2 Discrimination of G-protein-coupled and -uncoupled forms of the receptor by inverse agonists was examined in competition ligand-binding studies versus the agonist [H-3]NPA at a concentration labelling both G-protein-coupled and -uncoupled receptors. 3 Competition of inverse agonists versus [H-3] NPA gave data that were fitted best by a two-binding site model in the absence of GTP but by a one-binding site model in the presence of GTP. K-i values were derived from the competition data for binding of the inverse agonists to G-protein-uncoupled and -coupled receptors. K-coupled and K-uncoupled were statistically different for the set of compounds tested ( ANOVA) but the individual values were different in a post hoc test only for (+)-butaclamol. 4 These observations were supported by simulations of these competition experiments according to the extended ternary complex model. 5 Inverse agonist efficacy of the ligands was assessed from their ability to reduce agonist-independent [S-35]GTPγ S binding to varying degrees in concentration-response curves. Inverse agonism by (+)-butaclamol and spiperone occurred at higher potency when GDP was added to assays, whereas the potency of (-)-sulpiride was unaffected. 6 These data show that some inverse agonists ((+)-butaclamol, spiperone) achieve inverse agonism by stabilising the uncoupled form of the receptor at the expense of the coupled form. For other compounds tested, we were unable to define the mechanism.

Inverse agonist properties of atypical antipsychotic drugs

Mechanisms of action of several atypical antipsychotic drugs have been examined at the D-2 dopamine receptor expressed in CHO cells. The drugs tested were found to exhibit inverse agonist activity at the D-2 dopamine receptor based on their effects to potentiate forskolin-stimulated cyclic AMP (cAMP) accumulation. Each of the antipsychotic drugs tested (clozapine, olanzapine, quetiapine and risperidone) increased cAMP accumulation to the same extent. The increase in cAMP was also similar to that seen with typical antipsychotic drugs. Inverse agonism at the D-2 dopamine receptor seems, therefore, to be a property common to all classes of antipsychotic drugs. The effect of sodium ions on the binding of the drugs to the receptor was also assessed. Each of the atypical antipsychotic drugs tested here bound with higher affinity in the absence of sodium ions. Previous studies have shown that some antipsychotic drugs are insensitive to sodium ions and some bind with higher affinity in the presence of sodium ions. Given that all of these antipsychotic drugs are inverse agonists, it may be concluded that this sodium ion sensitivity is unrelated to mechanisms of inverse agonism. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.