The Impact of Population Ageing on House Prices: A Micro-simulation Approach

This paper attempts to estimate the impact of population ageing on house prices. There is considerable debate about whether population ageing puts downwards or upwards pressure on house prices. The empirical approach differs from earlier studies of this relationship, which are mainly regression analyses of macro time-series data. A micro-simulation methodology is adopted that combines a macro-level house price model with a micro-level household formation model. The case study is Scotland, a country that is expected to age rapidly in the future. The parameters of the household formation model are estimated with panel data from the British Household Panel Survey covering the period 1999-2008. The estimates are then used to carry out a set of simulations. The simulations are based on a set of population projections that represent a considerable range in the rate of population ageing. The main finding from the simulations is that population ageing—or more generally changes in age structure—is not likely a main determinant of house prices, at least in Scotland.

The Impact of Population Ageing on the Labour Market: Evidence from Overlapping Generations Computable General Equilibrium (OLG-CGE) Model of Scotland

This paper presents a dynamic Overlapping Generations Computable General Equilibrium (OLG-CGE) model of Scotland. The model is used to examine the impact of population ageing on the labour market. More specifically, it is used to evaluate the effects of labour force decline and labour force ageing on key macro-economic variables. The second effect is assumed to operate through age-specific productivity and labour force participation. In the analysis, particular attention is paid to how population ageing impinges on the government expenditure constraint. The basic structure of the model follows in the Auerbach and Kotlikoff tradition. However, the model takes into consideration directly age-specific mortality. This is analogous to “building in” a cohort-component population projection structure to the model, which allows more complex and more realistic demographic scenarios to be considered.

The added value from a general equilibrium analyses of increased efficiency in household energy use

The aim of the paper is to identify the added value from using general equilibrium techniques to consider the economy-wide impacts of increased efficiency in household energy use. We take as an illustrative case study the effect of a 5% improvement in household energy efficiency on the UK economy. This impact is measured through simulations that use models that have increasing degrees of endogeneity but are calibrated on a common data set. That is to say, we calculate rebound effects for models that progress from the most basic partial equilibrium approach to a fully specified general equilibrium treatment. The size of the rebound effect on total energy use depends upon: the elasticity of substitution of energy in household consumption; the energy intensity of the different elements of household consumption demand; and the impact of changes in income, economic activity and relative prices. A general equilibrium model is required to capture these final three impacts.

An investigation of the determinants of household demand for bushmeat in the Serengeti using an open-ended choice experiment

Illegal hunting for bushmeat is regarded as an important cause of biodiversity decline in Africa. We use a stated preferences method to obtain information on determinants of demand for bushmeat in villages around the Serengeti National Park, Tanzania. We estimate the effects of changes in the own price of bushmeat and in the prices of two substitute protein sources – fish and chicken. Promoting the availability of protein substitutes at lower prices would be effective at reducing pressures on wildlife. Supply-side measures that raise the price of bushmeat would also be effective.

Determinants of public education expenditure: Evidence from Indian states

Public education expenditure varies significantly across Indian states. Using data on sixteen Indian states from 2001-2010, the paper tries to identify the determinants of per capita education expenditure of state governments in India. The econometric findings indicate that richer states spend more on education compared to the poorer states. A lower share of child population (0-14 years) is found to significantly enhance education expenditure at the state level. We do not find any evidence that political factors such as political ideology of the ruling party and level of corruption affect education expenditure of state governments.

Monthly wages in the Swiss Household Panel

This paper describes the construction of monthly income from employment and self employment in the Swiss Household Panel (SHP). It documents the assumptions that have to be taken and addresses possibilities and difficulties when relating monthly income variables with the number of working hours. Finally, some descriptive statistics of the monthly wages are provided from 1999 to 2008. These show a high correlation of wages across the years, which is higher than correlation from yearly wages. This underlies the suitability of these variables on monthly wages for labour market research with the SHP. Median and average hourly wages have increased slightly from 2002 to 2008. The inequality of wages has remained stable for the total population.

Effects of a glucose meal on energy metabolism in patients with cirrhosis before and after liver transplantation.

HYPOTHESIS: Liver transplantation results in hepatic denervation. This may produce alterations of liver energy and substrate metabolism, which may contribute to weight gain after liver transplantation. DESIGN: Prospective clinical study. SETTING: Liver transplantation clinics in a university hospital. PATIENTS: Seven nondiabetic patients with cirrhosis were recruited while on a waiting list for liver transplantation. Seven healthy subjects were recruited as controls. INTERVENTION: Orthotopic liver transplantation. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Evaluation of energy and substrate metabolism after ingestion of a glucose load with indirect calorimetry was performed before, 2 to 6 weeks after, and 5 to 19 months after transplantation. Whole-body glucose oxidation and storage and glucose-induced thermogenesis were calculated. RESULTS: Patients with cirrhosis had modestly elevated resting energy expenditure and normal glucose-induced thermogenesis and postprandial glucose oxidation and storage. These measures remained unchanged after liver transplantation despite a significant increase in postprandial glycemia. Patients, however, gained an average of 3 kg of body weight after 5 to 19 months compared with their weight before transplantation. CONCLUSION: Liver denervation secondary to transplantation does not lead to alterations of energy metabolism after ingestion of a glucose load.

New approaches to social and economic research on schistosomiasis in TDR

This paper describes new approaches to social and economic research being developed by the Social and Economic Research component of the Special Programme for Research and Trainning in Tropical Diseases of the World Health Organization. One of these is a study to acess the possibility of identifying high risk communities for urinary schistosomiasis through a "mailed"questionaire approach distributed through an existing administrative system, thereby eliminating the need for face-to-face interviews by the research or disease control team. This approach, developed by the Swiss Tropical Institute in Ifakara, Tanzania, i s currently being tested in seven other African countries. The paper also describes a change of emphasis of economic research on schistosomiasis, focusing on the intra-household effects of the disease on rural households, rather than, as previously done, studying the impact of the disease on the productivity of individual wage labourers. Other priorities involve the identification of epidemiological information neede for improoved decision-making regarding acceptable treatment strategies in endemic areas with limited financial capacity, as well as research on how the adverse effects of economic development projects can be alleviated.

Twenty-four-hour energy expenditure and thermogenesis: response to progressive carbohydrate overfeeding in man.

Short-term overfeeding with carbohydrate induced a marked stimulation of energy expenditure, amounting to 33 per cent of the excess energy intake on the 7th day of overfeeding. This value is larger than that previously reported in man. Stimulation of lipogenesis and increased activity of the sympathetic nervous system seem to be the two major mechanisms which account for the stimulation of energy expenditure during carbohydrate overfeeding.

Redistributive taxation, public expenditure, and size of governent

We introduce a model of redistributive income taxation and public expenditure. This joint treatment permits analyzing the interdependencies between the two policies: one cannot be chosen independently of the other. Empirical evidence reveals that partisan confrontation essentially falls on expenditure policies rather than on income taxation. We examine the case in which the expenditure policy (or the size of government) is chosen by majority voting and income taxation is consistently adjusted. This adjustment consists of designing the income tax schedule that, given the expenditure policy, achieves consensus among the population. The model determines the consensus in- come tax schedule, the composition of public expenditure and the size of government. The main results are that inequality is negatively related to the size of government and to the pro-rich bias in public expenditure, and positively or negatively related to the marginal income tax, depending on substitutability between government supplied and market goods. These implications are validated using OECD data.

Effect of diets high or low in unavailable and slowly digestible carbohydrates on the pattern of 24-h substrate oxidation and feelings of hunger in humans.

BACKGROUND: The pattern of substrate utilization with diets containing a high or a low proportion of unavailable and slowly digestible carbohydrates may constitute an important factor in the control, time course, and onset of hunger in humans. OBJECTIVE: We tested the hypothesis that isoenergetic diets differing only in their content of unavailable carbohydrates would result in different time courses of total, endogenous, and exogenous carbohydrate oxidation rates. DESIGN: Two diets with either a high (H diet) or a low (L diet) content of unavailable carbohydrates were fed to 14 healthy subjects studied during two 24-h periods in a metabolic chamber. Substrate utilization was assessed by whole-body indirect calorimetry. In a subgroup of 8 subjects, endogenous and exogenous carbohydrate oxidation were assessed by prelabeling the body glycogen stores with [(13)C]carbohydrate. Subjective feelings of hunger were estimated with use of visual analogue scales. RESULTS: Total energy expenditure and substrate oxidation did not differ significantly between the 2 diets. However, there was a significant effect of diet (P: = 0.03) on the carbohydrate oxidation pattern: the H diet elicited a lower and delayed rise of postprandial carbohydrate oxidation and was associated with lower hunger feelings than was the L diet. The differences in hunger scores between the 2 diets were significantly associated with the differences in the pattern of carbohydrate oxidation among diets (r = -0.67, P: = 0. 006). Exogenous and endogenous carbohydrate oxidation were not significantly influenced by diet. CONCLUSIONS: The pattern of carbohydrate utilization is involved in the modulation of hunger feelings. The greater suppression of hunger after the H diet than after the L diet may be helpful, at least over the short term, in individuals attempting to better control their food intake.

The effect of ethanol on fat storage in healthy subjects.

BACKGROUND: Ethanol can account for up to 10 percent of the energy intake of persons who consume moderate amounts of ethanol. Its effect on energy metabolism, however, is not known. METHODS: We studied the effect of ethanol on 24-hour substrate-oxidation rates in eight normal men during two 48-hour sessions in an indirect-calorimetry chamber. In each session, the first 24 hours served as the control period. On the second day of one session, an additional 25 percent of the total energy requirement was added as ethanol (mean [+/- SD], 96 +/- 4 g per day); during the other session, 25 percent of the total energy requirement was replaced by ethanol, which was isocalorically substituted for lipids and carbohydrates. RESULTS: Both the addition of ethanol and the isocaloric substitution of ethanol for other foods reduced 24-hour lipid oxidation. The respective mean (+/- SE) decreases were 49.4 +/- 6.7 and 44.1 +/- 9.3 g per day (i.e., reductions of 36 +/- 3 percent and 31 +/- 7 percent from the oxidation rate during the control day; P less than 0.001 and P less than 0.0025). This effect occurred only during the daytime period (8:30 a.m. to 11:30 p.m.), when ethanol was consumed and metabolized. Neither the addition of ethanol to the diet nor the isocaloric substitution of ethanol for other foods significantly altered the oxidation of carbohydrate or protein. Both regimens including ethanol produced an increase in 24-hour energy expenditure (7 +/- 1 percent with the addition of ethanol, P less than 0.001; 4 +/- 1 percent with the substitution of ethanol for other energy sources, P less than 0.025). CONCLUSIONS: Ethanol, either added to the diet or substituted for other foods, increases 24-hour energy expenditure and decreases lipid oxidation. Habitual consumption of ethanol in excess of energy needs probably favors lipid storage and weight gain.

Whole body protein metabolism and resting energy expenditure in pregnant Gambian women.

Whole body protein metabolism and resting energy expenditure (REE) were measured at 11, 23, and 33 wk of pregnancy in nine pregnant (not malnourished) Gambian women and in eight matched nonpregnant nonlactating (NPNL) matched controls. Rates of whole body nitrogen flux, protein synthesis, and protein breakdown were determined in the fed state from the level of isotope enrichment of urinary urea and ammonia during a period of 9 h after a single oral dose of [15N]glycine. At regular intervals, REE was measured by indirect calorimetry (hood system). Based on the arithmetic end-product average of values obtained with urea and ammonia, a significant increase in whole body protein synthesis was observed during the second trimester (5.8 +/- 0.4 g.kg-1.day-1) relative to values obtained both for the NPNL controls (4.5 +/- 0.3 g.kg-1.day-1) and those during the first trimester (4.7 +/- 0.3 g.kg-1.day-1). There was a significant rise in REE during the third trimester both in the preprandial and postprandial states. No correlation was found between REE after meal ingestion and the rate of whole body protein synthesis.

Simulating the Impact of Sectorial Productivity Gains on Two Regional Economies: Key Sectors from a Supply Side Perspective

In this paper we simulate and analyse the economic impact that sectorial productivity gains have on two regional Spanish economies (Catalonia and Extremadura). In particular we study the quantitative effect that each sector’s productivity gain has on household welfare (real disposable income and equivalent variation), on the consumption price indices and factor relative prices, on real production (GDP) and on the government’s net income (net taxation revenues of social transfers to households). The analytical approach consists of a computable general equilibrium model, in which we assume perfect competition and cleared markets, including factor markets. All the parameters and exogenous variables of the model are calibrated by means of two social accounting matrices, one for each region under study. The results allow us to identify those sectors with the greatest impact on consumer welfare as the key sectors in the regional economies. Keywords: Productivity gains, key sectors, computable general equilibrium