Outbreak detection algorithms for seasonal disease data : a case study using Ross River virus disease

Background Detection of outbreaks is an important part of disease surveillance. Although many algorithms have been designed for detecting outbreaks, few have been specifically assessed against diseases that have distinct seasonal incidence patterns, such as those caused by vector-borne pathogens. Methods We applied five previously reported outbreak detection algorithms to Ross River virus (RRV) disease data (1991-2007) for the four local government areas (LGAs) of Brisbane, Emerald, Redland and Townsville in Queensland, Australia. The methods used were the Early Aberration Reporting System (EARS) C1, C2 and C3 methods, negative binomial cusum (NBC), historical limits method (HLM), Poisson outbreak detection (POD) method and the purely temporal SaTScan analysis. Seasonally-adjusted variants of the NBC and SaTScan methods were developed. Some of the algorithms were applied using a range of parameter values, resulting in 17 variants of the five algorithms. Results The 9,188 RRV disease notifications that occurred in the four selected regions over the study period showed marked seasonality, which adversely affected the performance of some of the outbreak detection algorithms. Most of the methods examined were able to detect the same major events. The exception was the seasonally-adjusted NBC methods that detected an excess of short signals. The NBC, POD and temporal SaTScan algorithms were the only methods that consistently had high true positive rates and low false positive and false negative rates across the four study areas. The timeliness of outbreak signals generated by each method was also compared but there was no consistency across outbreaks and LGAs. Conclusions This study has highlighted several issues associated with applying outbreak detection algorithms to seasonal disease data. In lieu of a true gold standard, a quantitative comparison is difficult and caution should be taken when interpreting the true positives, false positives, sensitivity and specificity.

Food talks back : Exploring the role of mobile applications in reducing domestic food wastage

Mitigating domestic food waste reduces its environmental and economic impacts. In our study, we have identified the use of mobile technology to support behaviour change as a key tool to assist the process of reducing food waste. This paper reports on three mobile applications designed to reduce domestic food waste: Fridge Pal, LeftoverSwap and EatChaFood. The paper examines how each app can influence consumer knowledge of domestic food supply, location, and literacy. We discuss our findings with respect to three considerations: (i) assisting with the user’s food supply and location knowledge; (ii) improving the user’s food literacy; (iii) facilitating social food sharing of excess food. We present new insights for mobile interventions that encourage changes towards more sustainable behaviours to reduce food waste.

The impact of mobile phone distraction on the braking behaviour of young drivers : a hazard-based duration model

Braking is a crucial driving task with a direct relationship with crash risk, as both excess and inadequate braking can lead to collisions. The objective of this study was to compare the braking profile of young drivers distracted by mobile phone conversations to non-distracted braking. In particular, the braking behaviour of drivers in response to a pedestrian entering a zebra crossing was examined using the CARRS-Q Advanced Driving Simulator. Thirty-two licensed drivers drove the simulator in three phone conditions: baseline (no phone conversation), hands-free, and handheld. In addition to driving the simulator, each participant completed questionnaires related to driver demographics, driving history, usage of mobile phones while driving, and general mobile phone usage history. The drivers were 18–26 years old and split evenly by gender. A linear mixed model analysis of braking profiles along the roadway before the pedestrian crossing revealed comparatively increased decelerations among distracted drivers, particularly during the initial 20 kph of deceleration. Drivers’ initial 20 kph deceleration time was modelled using a parametric accelerated failure time (AFT) hazard-based duration model with a Weibull distribution with clustered heterogeneity to account for the repeated measures experiment design. Factors found to significantly influence the braking task included vehicle dynamics variables like initial speed and maximum deceleration, phone condition, and driver-specific variables such as licence type, crash involvement history, and self-reported experience of using a mobile phone whilst driving. Distracted drivers on average appear to reduce the speed of their vehicle faster and more abruptly than non-distracted drivers, exhibiting excess braking comparatively and revealing perhaps risk compensation. The braking appears to be more aggressive for distracted drivers with provisional licenses compared to drivers with open licenses. Abrupt or excessive braking by distracted drivers might pose significant safety concerns to following vehicles in a traffic stream.

A non-aqueous solution synthesis of boron carbide by control of in-situ carbon

Synthesis of high quality boron carbide (B4C) powder is achieved by carbothermal reduction of boron oxide (B2O3) from a condensed boric acid (H3BO3) / polyvinyl acetate (PVAc) product. Precursor solutions are prepared via polymerisation of vinyl acetate (VA) in methanol in the presence of dissolved H3BO3. With excess VA monomer being removed during evaporation of the solvent, the polymerisation time is then used to manage availability of carbon for reaction.

Going through the obstruction, the Torrens System Assurance Fund and contemporary solutions : a tale weaved from a story of a nun, a romantic triangle and sibling corruption

Private title insurance has been the subject of much debate by law reform bodies and academics. This article adds a new dimension to the discussion by analysing its role against a recent scenario where a nun was betrayed by the actions of her brother, and compensation payable from the assurance fund, after much challenge by the registrar, amounted to in excess of $4 million.We ask whether the slow burning of title insurance into the psyche of Australian home purchasers will see state-based assurance fundings looking to minismise their role in the Torrens system. We also query how the rather more immediate electronic establishment of electronic conveyancing will alter the balance between the assurance fund, private title insurance and the increasing responsibilities on stakeholdes involved in conveyancing.

Expression of mammalian glutathione S-transferase 5-5 in Salmonella typhimurium TA1535 leads to base-pair mutations upon exposure to dihalomethanes

Dihalomethanes can produce liver tumors in mice but not in rats, and concern exists about the risk of these compounds to humans. Glutathione (GSH) conjugation of dihalomethanes has been considered to be a critical event in the bioactivation process, and risk assessment is based upon this premise; however, there is little experimental support for this view or information about the basis of genotoxicity. A plasmid vector containing rat GSH S-transferase 5-5 was transfected into the Salmonella typhimurium tester strain TA1535, which then produced active enzyme. The transfected bacteria produced base-pair revertants in the presence of ethylene dihalides or dihalomethanes, in the order CH2Br2 > CH2BrCl > CH2Cl2. However, revertants were not seen when cells were exposed to GSH, CH2Br2, and an amount of purified GSH S-transferase 5-5 (20-fold excess in amount of that expressed within the cells). HCHO, which is an end product of the reaction of GSH with dihalomethanes, also did not produce mutations. S-(1-Acetoxymethyl)GSH was prepared as an analog of the putative S-(1-halomethyl)GSH reactive intermediates. This analog did not produce revertants, consistent with the view that activation of dihalomethanes must occur within the bacteria to cause genetic damage, presenting a model to be considered in studies with mammalian cells. S-(1-Acetoxymethyl)GSH reacted with 2′-deoxyguanosine to yield a major adduct, identified as S-[1-(N2-deoxyguanosinyl)methyl]GSH. Demonstration of the activation of dihalomethanes by this mammalian GSH S-transferase theta class enzyme should be of use in evaluating the risk of these chemicals, particularly in light of reports of the polymorphic expression of a similar activity in humans.

Social Justice Impacts of the Resources Boom

Until the 1970s mining leases were issued by state governments subject to conditions that companies build or substantially finance local community infrastructure, including housing, streets, transport, schools, hospitals and recreation facilities. Townships and communities went hand in hand with mining development. However, in the past thirty years mining companies have moved progressively to an expeditionary strategy for natural resources extraction - operating a continuous production cycle of 12 hour shifts - increasingly reliant on non-resident, fly-in, fly-out or drive-in, drive-out (FIFO/DIDO) workers who typically work block rosters, reside in work camps adjacent to existing communities and travel large distances from their homes. This paper presents the key findings of our survey into the social impacts of this kind of mining development in Qld. Based on the results we argue that the social license to develop new mining projects is strong for projects requiring a 25% or less non-resident workforce, diminishes significantly thereafter and is very weak for projects planning to recruit a non-resident workforce in excess of 75%. This finding is significant because there are at least 67 new mining projects undergoing social impact assessment in Queensland, and many it appears are planning to hire significant proportions of non-resident workers. The paper considers the policy implications of this growing social justice issue concluding there is a clear need for national leadership in formulating a national policy framework for guiding socially responsible and sustainable mining development into the next millennium.

The effects of metabolic work rate and ambient environment on physiological tolerance times while wearing explosive and chemical personal protective equipment

This study evaluated the physiological tolerance times when wearing explosive and chemical (>35kg) personal protective equipment (PPE) in simulated environmental extremes across a range of differing work intensities. Twelve healthy males undertook nine trials which involved walking on a treadmill at 2.5, 4 and 5.5 km.h-1 in the following environmental conditions, 21, 30 and 37 °C wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT). Participants exercised for 60 min or until volitional fatigue, core temperature reached 39 °C, or heart rate exceeded 90% of maximum. Tolerance time, core temperature, skin temperature, mean body temperature, heart rate and body mass loss were measured. Exercise time was reduced in the higher WBGT environments (WBGT37excess of 39 °C. These results demonstrate that physiological tolerance times are influenced by the external environment and workload, and that cardiovascular strain is the limiting factor to work tolerance when wearing this heavy multi layered PPE.

Utilizing reactive capability of PV inverters and battery systems to improve voltage profile of a residential distribution feeder

Significant increase in installation of rooftop Photovoltaic (PV) in the Low-Voltage (LV) residential distribution network has resulted in over voltage problems. Moreover, increasing peak demand creates voltage dip problems and make voltage profile even worse. Utilizing the reactive power capability of PV inverter (RCPVI) can improve the voltage profile to some extent. Resistive caharcteristic (higher R/X ratio) limits the effectiveness of reactive power to provide voltage support in distribution network. Battery Energy Storage (BES), whereas, can store the excess PV generation during high solar insolation time and supply the stored energy back to the grid during peak demand. A coordinated algorithm is developed in this paper to use the reactive capability of PV inverter and BES with droop control. Proposed algorithm is capable to cater the severe voltage violation problem using RCPVI and BES. A signal flow is also mentioned in this research work to ensure smooth communication between all the equipments. Finally the developed algorithm is validated in a test distribution network.

Hybrid chalcogenide nanoparticles : 2D-WS2 nanocrystals inside nested WS2 fullerenes

The MOCVD assisted formation of nested WS2 inorganic fullerenes (IF-WS2) was performed by enhancing surface diffusion with iodine, and fullerene growth was monitored by taking TEM snapshots of intermediate products. The internal structure of the core-shell nanoparticles was studied using scanning electron microscopy (SEM) after cross-cutting with a focused ion beam (FIB). Lamellar reaction intermediates were found occluded in the fullerene particles. In contrast to carbon fullerenes, layered metal chalcogenides prefer the formation of planar, plate-like structures where the dangling bonds at the edges are stabilized by excess S atoms. The effects of the reaction and annealing temperatures on the composition and morphology of the final product were investigated, and the strength of the WS2 shell was measured by intermittent contact-mode AFM. The encapsulated lamellar structures inside the hollow spheres may lead to enhanced tribological activities.

Insurance and transport law : controlling insurance contract terms : Section 54 of the Insurance Contracts Act – compliance, recovery and accountability

Commonwealth legislation covering insurance contracts contains numerous provisions designed to control the operation and effect of terms in life and general insurance contracts. For example, the Life Insurance Act 1995 (Cth) contains provisions regulating the consequences attendant upon incorrect statements in proposals [1] and non-payment of premiums, [2] provides that an insurer may only exclude liability in the case of suicide if it has made express provision for such contingency in its policy, [3] and severely restricts the efficacy of conditions as to war risks. [4] The Insurance Contracts Act 1984 (Cth) is even more intrusive and has a major impact upon contractual provisions in the general insurance field. It is beyond the scope of this note to explore all of these provisions in any detail but examples of controls and constraints imposed upon the operation and effect of contractual provisions include the following. A party is precluded from relying upon a provision in a contract of insurance if such reliance would amount to a failure to act with the utmost good faith. [5] Similarly, a policy provision which requires differences or disputes arising out of the insurance to be submitted to arbitration is void, [6] unless the insurance is a genuine cover for excess of loss over and above another specified insurance. [7] Similarly clause such as conciliation clauses, [8] average clauses, [9] and unusual terms [10] are given qualified operation. [11] However the provision in the Insurance Contracts Act that has the greatest impact upon, and application to, a wide range of insurance clauses and claims is s 54. This section has already generated a significant volume of case law and is the focus of this note. In particular this note examines two recent cases. The first, Johnson v Triple C Furniture and Electrical Pty Ltd [2012] 2 Qd R 337, (hereafter the Triple C case), is a decision of the Queensland Court of Appeal; and the second, Matthew Maxwell v Highway Hauliers Pty Ltd [2013] WASCA 115, (hereafter the Highway Hauliers case), is a decision of the Court of Appeal in Western Australia. This latter decision is on appeal to the High Court of Australia. The note considers too the decision of the New South Wales Court of Appeal in Prepaid Services Pty Ltd v Atradius Credit Insurance NV [2013] NSWCA 252 (hereafter the Prepaid Services case).These cases serve to highlight the complex nature of s 54 and its application, as well as the difficulty in achieving a balance between an insurer and an insured's reasonable expectations.

Unusually cold and dry winters increase mortality in Australia

Seasonal patterns in mortality have been recognised for decades, with a marked excess of deaths in winter, yet our understanding of the causes of this phenomenon is not yet complete. Research has shown that low and high temperatures are associated with increased mortality independently of season; however, the impact of unseasonal weather on mortality has been less studied. In this study, we aimed to determine if unseasonal patterns in weather were associated with unseasonal patterns in mortality. We obtained daily temperature, humidity and mortality data from 1988 to 2009 for five major Australian cities with a range of climates. We split the seasonal patterns in temperature, humidity and mortality into their stationary and non-stationary parts. A stationary seasonal pattern is consistent from year-to-year, and a non-stationary pattern varies from year-to-year. We used Poisson regression to investigate associations between unseasonal weather and an unusual number of deaths. We found that deaths rates in Australia were 20–30% higher in winter than summer. The seasonal pattern of mortality was non-stationary, with much larger peaks in some winters. Winters that were colder or drier than a typical winter had significantly increased death risks in most cities. Conversely summers that were warmer or more humid than average showed no increase in death risks. Better understanding the occurrence and cause of seasonal variations in mortality will help with disease prevention and save lives.

Challenging the myth of an "epidemic" of common mental disorders : trends in the global prevalence of anxiety and depression between 1990 and 2010

Background Anxiety disorders and major depressive disorder (MDD) are common and disabling mental disorders. This paper aims to test the hypothesis that common mental disorders have become more prevalent over the past two decades. Methods We conducted a systematic review of prevalence, remission, duration, and excess mortality studies for anxiety disorders and MDD and then used a Bayesian meta-regression approach to estimate point prevalence for 1990, 2005, and 2010. We also conducted a post-hoc search for studies that used the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ) as a measure of psychological distress and tested for trends to present a qualitative comparison of study findings. Results This study found no evidence for an increased prevalence of anxiety disorders or MDD. While the crude number of cases increased by 36%, this was explained by population growth and changing age structures. Point prevalence of anxiety disorders was estimated at 3.8% (3.6-4.1%) in 1990 and 4.0% (3.7-4.2%) in 2010. The prevalence of MDD was unchanged at 4.4% in 1990 (4.2-4.7%) and 2010 (4.1-4.7%). However, 8 of the 11 GHQ studies found a significant increase in psychological distress over time. Conclusions The perceived "epidemic" of common mental disorders is most likely explained by the increasing numbers of affected patients driven by increasing population sizes. Additional factors that may explain this perception include the higher rates of psychological distress as measured using symptom checklists, greater public awareness, and the use of terms such as anxiety and depression in a context where they do not represent clinical disorders.

Liking for high fat foods in patients with Obstructive Sleep Apnoea

Excess weight and obesity are factors that are strongly associated with risk for Obstructive Sleep Apnoea (OSA).Weight loss has been associated with improvements in clinical indicators of OSA severity; however, patients’ beliefs about diet change have not been investigated. This study utilized a validated behaviour change model to estimate the relationship between food liking, food intake and indices of OSA severity. Two-hundred and six OSA patients recruited from a Sleep Disorders Clinic completed standardized questionnaires of: a) fat and fibre food intake, food liking, and food knowledge and; b) attitudes and intentions towards fat reduction. OSA severity and body mass index (BMI) were objectively measured using standard clinical guidelines. The relationship between liking for high fat food and OSA severity was tested with hierarchical regression. Gender and BMI explained a significant 20% of the variance in OSA severity, Fibre Liking accounted for an additional 6% (a negative relationship), and Fat Liking accounted for a further 3.6% of variance. Although the majority of individuals (47%) were currently “active” in reducing fat intake, overall the patients’ dietary beliefs and behaviours did not correspond. The independent relationship between OSA severity and liking for high fat foods (and disliking of high fibre foods) may be consistent with a two-way interaction between sleep disruption and food choice. Whilst the majority of OSA patients were intentionally active in changing to a healthy diet, further emphasis on improving healthy eating practices and beliefs in this population is necessary.