Connecting climate model projections of global temperature change with the real world

Current state-of-the-art global climate models produce different values for Earth’s mean temperature. When comparing simulations with each other and with observations it is standard practice to compare temperature anomalies with respect to a reference period. It is not always appreciated that the choice of reference period can affect conclusions, both about the skill of simulations of past climate, and about the magnitude of expected future changes in climate. For example, observed global temperatures over the past decade are towards the lower end of the range of CMIP5 simulations irrespective of what reference period is used, but exactly where they lie in the model distribution varies with the choice of reference period. Additionally, we demonstrate that projections of when particular temperature levels are reached, for example 2K above ‘pre-industrial’, change by up to a decade depending on the choice of reference period. In this article we discuss some of the key issues that arise when using anomalies relative to a reference period to generate climate projections. We highlight that there is no perfect choice of reference period. When evaluating models against observations, a long reference period should generally be used, but how long depends on the quality of the observations available. The IPCC AR5 choice to use a 1986-2005 reference period for future global temperature projections was reasonable, but a case-by-case approach is needed for different purposes and when assessing projections of different climate variables. Finally, we recommend that any studies that involve the use of a reference period should explicitly examine the robustness of the conclusions to alternative choices.

Understanding inter-satellite biases of microwave humidity sounders using global simultaneous nadir overpasses

Simultaneous nadir overpasses (SNOs) of polar-orbiting satellites are most frequent in polar areas but can occur at any latitude when the equatorial crossing times of the satellites become close owing to orbital drift. We use global SNOs of polar orbiting satellites to evaluate the intercalibration of microwave humidity sounders from the more frequent high-latitude SNOs. We have found based on sensitivity analyses that optimal distance and time thresholds for defining collocations are pixel centers less than 5 km apart and time differences less than 300 s. These stringent collocation criteria reduce the impact of highly variable surface or atmospheric conditions on the estimated biases. Uncertainties in the estimated biases are dominated by the combined radiometric noise of the instrument pair. The effects of frequency changes between different versions of the humidity sounders depend on the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere. There are significant scene radiance and thus latitude dependencies in the estimated biases and this has to taken into account while intercalibrating microwave humidity sounders. Therefore the results obtained using polar SNOs will not be representative for moist regions, necessitating the use of global collocations for reliable intercalibration.

Non-bee insects are important contributors to global crop pollination

Wild and managed bees are well documented as effective pollinators of global crops of economic importance. However, the contributions by pollinators other than bees have been little explored despite their potential to contribute to crop production and stability in the face of environmental change. Non-bee pollinators include flies, beetles, moths, butterflies, wasps, ants, birds, and bats, among others. Here we focus on non-bee insects and synthesize 39 field studies from five continents that directly measured the crop pollination services provided by non-bees, honey bees, and other bees to compare the relative contributions of these taxa. Non-bees performed 25–50% of the total number of flower visits. Although non-bees were less effective pollinators than bees per flower visit, they made more visits; thus these two factors compensated for each other, resulting in pollination services rendered by non-bees that were similar to those provided by bees. In the subset of studies that measured fruit set, fruit set increased with non-bee insect visits independently of bee visitation rates, indicating that non-bee insects provide a unique benefit that is not provided by bees. We also show that non-bee insects are not as reliant as bees on the presence of remnant natural or seminatural habitat in the surrounding landscape. These results strongly suggest that non-bee insect pollinators play a significant role in global crop production and respond differently than bees to landscape structure, probably making their crop pollination services more robust to changes in land use. Non-bee insects provide a valuable service and provide potential insurance against bee population declines.

An ensemble of eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses from the MyOcean project

A set of four eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses produced in the framework of the MyOcean project have been compared over the altimetry period 1993–2011. The main differences among the reanalyses used here come from the data assimilation scheme implemented to control the ocean state by inserting reprocessed observations of sea surface temperature (SST), in situ temperature and salinity profiles, sea level anomaly and sea-ice concentration. A first objective of this work includes assessing the interannual variability and trends for a series of parameters, usually considered in the community as essential ocean variables: SST, sea surface salinity, temperature and salinity averaged over meaningful layers of the water column, sea level, transports across pre-defined sections, and sea ice parameters. The eddy-permitting nature of the global reanalyses allows also to estimate eddy kinetic energy. The results show that in general there is a good consistency between the different reanalyses. An intercomparison against experiments without data assimilation was done during the MyOcean project and we conclude that data assimilation is crucial for correctly simulating some quantities such as regional trends of sea level as well as the eddy kinetic energy. A second objective is to show that the ensemble mean of reanalyses can be evaluated as one single system regarding its reliability in reproducing the climate signals, where both variability and uncertainties are assessed through the ensemble spread and signal-to-noise ratio. The main advantage of having access to several reanalyses differing in the way data assimilation is performed is that it becomes possible to assess part of the total uncertainty. Given the fact that we use very similar ocean models and atmospheric forcing, we can conclude that the spread of the ensemble of reanalyses is mainly representative of our ability to gauge uncertainty in the assimilation methods. This uncertainty changes a lot from one ocean parameter to another, especially in global indices. However, despite several caveats in the design of the multi-system ensemble, the main conclusion from this study is that an eddy-permitting multi-system ensemble approach has become mature and our results provide a first step towards a systematic comparison of eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses aimed at providing robust conclusions on the recent evolution of the oceanic state.

The impact of variable sea ice roughness on changes in Arctic Ocean surface stress: a model study

The Arctic sea ice cover is thinning and retreating, causing changes in surface roughness that in turn modify the momentum flux from the atmosphere through the ice into the ocean. New model simulations comprising variable sea ice drag coefficients for both the air and water interface demonstrate that the heterogeneity in sea ice surface roughness significantly impacts the spatial distribution and trends of ocean surface stress during the last decades. Simulations with constant sea ice drag coefficients as used in most climate models show an increase in annual mean ocean surface stress (0.003 N/m2 per decade, 4.6%) due to the reduction of ice thickness leading to a weakening of the ice and accelerated ice drift. In contrast, with variable drag coefficients our simulations show annual mean ocean surface stress is declining at a rate of -0.002 N/m2 per decade (3.1%) over the period 1980-2013 because of a significant reduction in surface roughness associated with an increasingly thinner and younger sea ice cover. The effectiveness of sea ice in transferring momentum does not only depend on its resistive strength against the wind forcing but is also set by its top and bottom surface roughness varying with ice types and ice conditions. This reveals the need to account for sea ice surface roughness variations in climate simulations in order to correctly represent the implications of sea ice loss under global warming.

Terrestrial biosphere changes over the last 120 kyr

A new global synthesis and biomization of long (> 40 kyr) pollen-data records is presented and used with sim- ulations from the HadCM3 and FAMOUS climate models and the BIOME4 vegetation model to analyse the dynamics of the global terrestrial biosphere and carbon storage over the last glacial–interglacial cycle. Simulated biome distribu- tions using BIOME4 driven by HadCM3 and FAMOUS at the global scale over time generally agree well with those in- ferred from pollen data. Global average areas of grassland and dry shrubland, desert, and tundra biomes show large- scale increases during the Last Glacial Maximum, between ca. 64 and 74 ka BP and cool substages of Marine Isotope Stage 5, at the expense of the tropical forest, warm-temperate forest, and temperate forest biomes. These changes are re- flected in BIOME4 simulations of global net primary pro- ductivity, showing good agreement between the two models. Such changes are likely to affect terrestrial carbon storage, which in turn influences the stable carbon isotopic composi- tion of seawater as terrestrial carbon is depleted in 13C.

Understanding the rapid summer warming and changes in temperature extremes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe

Analysis of observations indicates that there was a rapid increase in summer (June-August, JJA) mean surface air temperature (SAT) since the mid-1990s over Western Europe. Accompanying this rapid warming are significant increases in summer mean daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, annual hottest day temperature and warmest night temperature, and an increase in frequency of summer days and tropical nights, while the change in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) is small. This study focuses on understanding causes of the rapid summer warming and associated temperature extreme changes. A set of experiments using the atmospheric component of the state-of-the-art HadGEM3 global climate model have been carried out to quantify relative roles of changes in sea surface temperature (SST)/sea ice extent (SIE), anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), and anthropogenic aerosols (AAer). Results indicate that the model forced by changes in all forcings reproduces many of the observed changes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe. Changes in SST/SIE explain 62.2% ± 13.0% of the area averaged seasonal mean warming signal over Western Europe, with the remaining 37.8% ± 13.6% of the warming explained by the direct impact of changes in GHGs and AAer. Results further indicate that the direct impact of the reduction of AAer precursor emissions over Europe, mainly through aerosol-radiation interaction with additional contributions from aerosol-cloud interaction and coupled atmosphere-land surface feedbacks, is a key factor for increases in annual hottest day temperature and in frequency of summer days. It explains 45.5% ± 17.6% and 40.9% ± 18.4% of area averaged signals for these temperature extremes. The direct impact of the reduction of AAer precursor emissions over Europe acts to increase DTR locally, but the change in DTR is countered by the direct impact of GHGs forcing. In the next few decades, greenhouse gas concentrations will continue to rise and AAer precursor emissions over Europe and North America will continue to decline. Our results suggest that the changes in summer seasonal mean SAT and temperature extremes over Western Europe since the mid-1990s are most likely to be sustained or amplified in the near term, unless other factors intervene.

IPCC global coupled model simulations of the South America monsoon system

This study examines the variability of the South America monsoon system (SAMS) over tropical South America (SA). The onset, end, and total rainfall during the summer monsoon are investigated using precipitation pentad estimates from the global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) 1979-2006. Likewise, the variability of SAMS characteristics is examined in ten Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) global coupled climate models in the twentieth century (1981-2000) and in a future scenario of global change (A1B) (2081-2100). It is shown that most IPCC models misrepresent the intertropical convergence zone and therefore do not capture the actual annual cycle of precipitation over the Amazon and northwest SA. Most models can correctly represent the spatiotemporal variability of the annual cycle of precipitation in central and eastern Brazil such as the correct phase of dry and wet seasons, onset dates, duration of rainy season and total accumulated precipitation during the summer monsoon for the twentieth century runs. Nevertheless, poor representation of the total monsoonal precipitation over the Amazon and northeast Brazil is observed in a large majority of the models. Overall, MI-ROC3.2-hires, MIROC3.2-medres and MRI-CGCM3.2.3 show the most realistic representation of SAMS`s characteristics such as onset, duration, total monsoonal precipitation, and its interannual variability. On the other hand, ECHAM5, GFDL-CM2.0 and GFDL-CM2.1 have the least realistic representation of the same characteristics. For the A1B scenario the most coherent feature observed in the IPCC models is a reduction in precipitation over central-eastern Brazil during the summer monsoon, comparatively with the present climate. The IPCC models do not indicate statistically significant changes in SAMS onset and demise dates for the same scenario.

Divergence Involving Global Regulatory Gene Mutations in an Escherichia coli Population Evolving under Phosphate Limitation

Many of the important changes in evolution are regulatory in nature. Sequenced bacterial genomes point to flexibility in regulatory circuits but we do not know how regulation is remodeled in evolving bacteria. Here, we study the regulatory changes that emerge in populations evolving under controlled conditions during experimental evolution of Escherichia coli in a phosphate-limited chemostat culture. Genomes were sequenced from five clones with different combinations of phenotypic properties that coexisted in a population after 37 days. Each of the distinct isolates contained a different mutation in 1 of 3 highly pleiotropic regulatory genes (hfq, spoT, or rpoS). The mutations resulted in dissimilar proteomic changes, consistent with the documented effects of hfq, spoT, and rpoS mutations. The different mutations do share a common benefit, however, in that the mutations each redirect cellular resources away from stress responses that are redundant in a constant selection environment. The hfq mutation lowers several individual stress responses as well the small RNA-dependent activation of rpoS translation and hence general stress resistance. The spoT mutation reduces ppGpp levels, decreasing the stringent response as well as rpoS expression. The mutations in and upstream of rpoS resulted in partial or complete loss of general stress resistance. Our observations suggest that the degeneracy at the core of bacterial stress regulation provides alternative solutions to a common evolutionary challenge. These results can explain phenotypic divergence in a constant environment and also how evolutionary jumps and adaptive radiations involve altered gene regulation.

Related changes in biodiversity, insolation and climate in the Atlantic rainforest since the last interglacial

The long-term Colonia record is located in the Atlantic rainforest domain in Brazil (23 degrees 52`S 46 degrees 42`20 `` W 900 m a.s.l.). The 780 cm long core CO3 provides a coverage of a complete interglacial/glacial cycle for the first time in a neotropical rainforest. Information on the behavior of tropical climates compared to global changes in temperatures indicates specific climate responses in terms of precipitation at these latitudes. Winter extratropical circulation was very active during the last interglacial and most of the glacial. Floristic composition of the rainforest changed several times in each phase of expansion, twice during the interglacial, and three times during glacial episodes. Araucaria was well developed in the area of Sao Paulo until the beginning of the first dry phase of the glacial at ca. 50,000 yr B.P. Changes in insolation controlled the expansion of the rainforest and the tropical hydrological cycle as evidenced by a strong precession signal. However precession had no impact on regional climatic features. The two interglacials (MIS 5e and Holocene) showed completely different patterns attesting to the continuous evolution of the forest. The biodiversity index (Shannon-Wiener Index) remained high during both the interglacial and glacial attesting to the permanence of small patches of rainforest refugia during drier phases. The lowest Shannon-Wiener Indexes were recorded between 23,000 and 12,000 yr B.P. and 40,000 and 30,000 yr B.P. and characterize two marked phases of stress for the rainforest. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The development of blowouts and foredunes in the Ilha Comprida barrier (Southeastern Brazil): the influence of Late Holocene climate changes on coastal sedimentation

Middle to Late Holocene barriers are conspicuous landforms in southeastern and southern Brazilian regions. The barriers in the coastal zones of northern Santa Catarina, Parana and Sao Paulo states (27 degrees 19`-24 degrees 00`S) are formed mainly by beach ridge alignments and many barriers present foredune and blowout alignments in their seaward portion. The development of these eolian landforms appears to record a regional shift in coastal dynamics and barrier building. In this context, the Ilha Comprida barrier stands out for its well-developed and well-preserved foredunes and blowouts. Based on the presence or not and type of eolian landforms, the Ilha Comprida barrier can be divided seaward into inner, middle and outer units. The inner unit is formed entirely by beach ridges. The middle unit comprises a narrow belt of blowouts (up to 15 m high) aligned alongshore. Blowout lobes pointing NNW are indicative of their generation by southern winds. The outer unit is represented by low (<= 1 m high) active or stabilized foredunes and a small transgressive dunefield (similar to 1 km(2)). Twenty-seven luminescence ages (SAR protocol) obtained for the beach ridges, foredunes, and blowouts of these three units allow definition of a precise chronology of these landforms and calculation of rates of coastal progradation. The inner unit presents ages greater than 1004 +/- 88 years. The blowouts of the middle unit show ages from 575 +/- 47 to 172 +/- 18 years. The ages of the outer unit are less than 108 +/- 10 years. Rates of coastal progradation for the inner and outer units are 0.71-0.82 m/year and 0.86-2.23 m/year, respectively. The main phase of blowout development correlates well with the Little Ice Age (LIA) climatic event. These results indicate that southern winds in subtropical Brazil became increasingly more intense and/or frequent during the LIA. These conditions persist to the present and are responsible for the development of the eolian landforms in the outer unit. Thus, barrier geomorphology can record global climatic events. The sensitivity of barrier systems in subtropical Brazil to Late Holocene climate changes was favored by the relative sea level stillstand during this time. Luminescence dating makes it possible to analyze barrier geomorphology during Late Holocene climate changes operating on timescales of a hundred to thousand years. These results improve our knowledge of barrier building and will help in the evaluation of the impact of future climate changes on coastal settings. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global Gene Expression Analysis during Germination in the Chytridiomycete Blastocladiella emersonii

Blastocladiella emersonii is an aquatic fungus of the Chytridiomycete class. During germination, the zoospore, a motile nongrowing cell, goes through a cascade of morphological changes that culminates with its differentiation into the germling cell, capable of coenocytic vegetative growth. Transcriptome analyses of B. emersonii cells were carried out during germination induced under various environmental conditions. Microarray data analyzing 3,563 distinct B. emersonii genes revealed that 26% of them are differentially expressed during germination in nutrient medium at at least one of the time points investigated. Over 500 genes are upregulated during the time course of germination under those conditions, most being related to cell growth, including genes involved in protein biosynthesis, DNA transcription, energetic metabolism, carbohydrate and oligopeptide transport, and cell cycle control. On the other hand, several transcripts stored in the zoospores are downregulated during germination in nutrient medium, such as genes involved in signal transduction, amino acid transport, and chromosome organization. In addition, germination induced in the presence of nutrients was compared with that triggered either by adenine or potassium ions in inorganic salt solution. Several genes involved in cell growth, induced during germination in nutrient medium, do not show increased expression when B. emersonii zoospores germinate in inorganic solution, suggesting that nutrients exert a positive effect on gene transcription. The transcriptome data also revealed that most genes involved in cell signaling show the same expression pattern irrespective of the initial germination stimulus.

Global Gene Expression Analysis during Sporulation of the Aquatic Fungus Blastocladiella emersonii

The Blastocladiella emersonii life cycle presents a number of drastic biochemical and morphological changes, mainly during two cell differentiation stages: germination and sporulation. To investigate the transcriptional changes taking place during the sporulation phase, which culminates with the production of the zoospores, motile cells responsible for the dispersal of the fungus, microarray experiments were performed. Among the 3,773 distinct genes investigated, a total of 1,207 were classified as differentially expressed, relative to time zero of sporulation, at at least one of the time points analyzed. These results indicate that accurate transcriptional control takes place during sporulation, as well as indicating the necessity for distinct molecular functions throughout this differentiation process. The main functional categories overrepresented among upregulated genes were those involving the microtubule, the cytoskeleton, signal transduction involving Ca(2+), and chromosome organization. On the other hand, protein biosynthesis, central carbon metabolism, and protein degradation were the most represented functional categories among downregulated genes. Gene expression changes were also analyzed in cells sporulating in the presence of subinhibitory concentrations of glucose or tryptophan. Data obtained revealed overexpression of microtubule and cytoskeleton transcripts in the presence of glucose, probably causing the shape and motility problems observed in the zoospores produced under this condition. In contrast, the presence of tryptophan during sporulation led to upregulation of genes involved in oxidative stress, proteolysis, and protein folding. These results indicate that distinct physiological pathways are involved in the inhibition of sporulation due to these two classes of nutrient sources.

Discussão de um sistema de custeio adaptado as exigências da nova competição global

Atualmente, uma empresa deve ter sua atenção voltada não somente ao mercado brasileiro, mas também ao mercado internacional. Esta nova forma de postura, denominada “A Nova Competição Global”, vem forçando os empresários à aprimorarem, continuamente, seus processos produtivos. Nesse sentido, as novas formas de organização da produção estão revolucionando o gerenciamento das empresas. Informações geradas por relatórios econômico-financeiros são consideradas como uma das melhores formas de medição das rotinas e melhorias ocorridas, e visam proporcionar tomadas de decisão rápidas e seguras. Com as mudanças no ambiente empresarial, vieram à tona as deficiências dos sistemas tradicionais de custeio, dado que eles não mais respondiam, satisfatoriamente, às necessidades de informação impostas pelo atual ambiente competitivo. Em vista da problemática exposta, este trabalho estuda os sistemas de custeio vigentes, buscando identificar seus pontos fortes e fracos para, então, combiná-los convenientemente, propondo um sistema de custeio alternativo, adequado às novas exigências das empresas. Este trabalho inicia com a análise dos sistemas de custeio tradicionais e contemporâneos, à luz da nova competição global. Na seqüência, destaca as principais deficiências destes sistemas e, por fim, propõe um sistema de custeio adaptado à atual realidade competitiva. O sistema de custeio proposto é uma combinação conveniente do princípio de custeio por absorção associado aos métodos do custo-padrão, das unidades de esforço de produção e do custeio baseado em atividades. Um estudo de caso foi realizado em uma empresa de produção seriada, tendo por objetivo validar o sistema de custeio proposto, partindo da implementação dos conceitos teóricos referenciados no trabalho, convenientemente adaptados à estrutura de custos já existente numa empresa real. Como principais resultados, o sistema de custos proposto permitiu avaliar as perdas do processo produtivo, bem como identificar as atividades administrativas e de apoio à produção (nãoprodutivas), visando dar subsídios para a realização de melhorias.

Atitude socialmente responsável ou estratégia comercial: o caso do pacto global

The discussion about corporate obligations toward the various stakeholders began in the postindustrial era and developed to culminate in the creation of rules, regulations, programs and projects focusing on the dissemination and promotion of what we know today as corporate social responsibility (CSR). In this context, satisfying this new demand and adopting social policies emerge as a determining factor in defining organizational strategies. Nevertheless, some questions are raised when we examine the subject, such as: To what extent should organizations intervene in society? Is the decision for the organizations to adopt a socially responsible attitude really linked to promoting social well being, or is it only a commercial strategy? How does social marketing relate to CSR projects? The study herein, based on the concept and understanding of CSR theories, stakeholders and social marketing, has sought to find evidence of this relationship, in the light of the Global Compact (GC). It was decided to use the multi-case study methodology, considering the possibility of explaining the reasons why the decisions were taken, how they were implemented and what was the outcome. Interviews, supported by previously prepared scripts, were held with CSR managers, employees from other areas of the organizations, and specialists on the subject. Complementary research studies were made in various sources, such as the website of companies under analysis, their sustainability reports, and the GC websites in Brazil and the United Nations (UN). The results obtained show that the organizations have worked increasingly with CSR projects, but the efforts have not been focused. Special mention is given to the programs that create major impact on the company¿s image and reputation, such as projects competing for prizes and participating in the formation of rankings or socially responsible organizations. From the view of Carroll¿s Pyramid (1991) for CSR, it is found that the projects are predominantly focusing on ethical and philanthropic issues. The driving power of the GC, action based on learning, dialogue and partnership, is not to be found. This factor contributes to the statement that social marketing tools are used to build an ethical and socially responsible image, in detriment to effective action by the organizations to meet the social requirements of their stakeholders. The social marketing has as an objective to transform the way a specific public sees a social question and promotes behavior changes, but what has been seen is the use of marketing tools exclusively to promote the company's image.