A feasibility study for assessing building occupants' indoor air quality expectations compared to nationally recognized standards

Indoor Air Quality (IAQ) can have significant implications for health, productivity, job performance, and operating cost. Professional experience in the field of indoor air quality suggests that high expectations (better than nationally established standards) (American Society of Heating, Refrigerating, and Air-conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE)) of workplace indoor air quality lead to increase air quality complaints. To determine whether there is a positive association between expectations and indoor air quality complaints, a one-time descriptive and analytical cross-sectional pilot study was conducted. Area Safety Liaisons (n = 330) at University of Texas Health Science Center – Houston were asked to answer a questionnaire regarding their expectations of four workplace indoor air quality indicators i.e., (temperature, relative humidity, carbon dioxide, and carbon monoxide) and if they experienced and reported indoor air quality problems. A chi-square test for independence was used to evaluate associations among the variables of interest. The response rate was 54% (n = 177). Results did not show significant associations between expectation and indoor air quality. However, a greater proportion of Area Safety Liaisons who expected indoor air quality indicators to be better than the established standard experienced greater indoor air quality problems. Similarly, a slightly higher proportion of Area Liaisons who expected indoor air quality indicators to be better than the standard reported greater indoor air quality complaints. ^ The findings indicated that a greater proportion of Area Safety Liaisons with high expectations (conditions that are beyond what is considered normal and acceptable by ASHRAE) experienced greater indoor air quality discomfort. This result suggests a positive association between high expectations and experienced and reported indoor air quality complaints. Future studies may be able to address whether the frequency of complaints and resulting investigations can be reduced through information and education about what are acceptable conditions.^

U.S. school based sealant programs: Review of their most common characteristics

In the United States, dental caries is the most common chronic illness in children, occurring five to eight times as frequently as asthma. 11 Dental caries is an unmet health need, disproportionately affecting minority groups and individuals with low socio-economic status.15,34,36 School-Based Sealant Programs were developed to target children at risk, to provide dental services in a closer geographic area, to offer low cost preventive dental services, and to educate families about oral health and prevention.1 There is scientific, evidence based literature that shows the effectiveness of dental sealants preventing dental decay. 13^ Currently, there is no central source for cataloging School-Based Sealant Programs (SBSPs). Information is scattered around publications and documents. For instance, the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) does not have information about all the existing SBSPs. ^ This literature review determined which are the most common characteristics of SBSPs in the U.S. and determined the extent to which these programs provide sealants to children of low socio-economic status. The method utilized was an electronic database search. Pubmed and EBESCO host databases were searched with Mesh terms like “dental school sealant programs”, “community dentistry”, “school based sealant programs” and “oral preventive programs”. Results were organized in terms of location, population served, providers, funding source and data shared. ^ The searches produced 77 studies, from which 40 were included in this work. Only 18 U.S. states were represented in the results; however these findings are very consistent with the Best Practice Approach – School Based Sealant Programs3. Most of the SBSPs provide their services to children from low income families, and utilized the lower labor cost providers permitted by their state regulations. The author intends that this thesis work will become an aide in the development of future programs, and as evidence for the sustainability of these programs.^

Prevalence of HIV risk-related behaviors among undocumented Central American immigrant women in Houston, Texas, 2010

The primary aim of this dissertation research is to provide epidemiological data on HIV risk-related behaviors among undocumented Central American immigrant women living in Houston, Texas. Between February and May 2010, we used respondent driven sampling (RDS) to recruit 230 Guatemalan, Honduran, and El Salvadoran women, ages 18 to 50 years, living in Houston without a valid United States visa or residency papers. RDS is a probability-based sampling method that utilizes social networks to access members of hidden populations that lack a sampling frame. Participants completed an interview regarding their demographics, access to and utilization of healthcare services, HIV testing, and sexual behaviors. Data from this study were used 1) to describe the prevalence of sexual HIV risk-related behaviors among undocumented Central American immigrant women, comparing those who recently immigrated to the U.S. (within the past five years) to those with more established residency (of over five years); 2) to describe the prevalence of lifetime HIV testing and evaluate its associated factors in this target population; and 3) to describe the effectiveness of RDS to access members of this target population. ^ As described in Paper 1, there was a generally low prevalence of individual HIV risk-related behaviors (i.e., multiple, concurrent, convenience, and casual sexual partnerships) among the undocumented Central American immigrant women in this study. However, there was evidence of HIV risk due to unprotected sex with male partners who have concurrent sexual partnerships. We identified recent immigrants as the subpopulation at greatest risk, as they were significantly more likely than established immigrants to have multiple and/or concurrent sexual partners. As described in Paper 2, the lifetime prevalence of HIV testing was almost 70%. After adjusting for age, number of years living in the U.S., income security, and resource barriers, lifetime HIV testing was significantly associated with being from Honduras, having more than a sixth grade education, having a regular healthcare provider, and having knowledge of available healthcare resources. Finally, as described in Paper 3, RDS was an effective method for obtaining a diverse sample of Central American immigrant women in Houston. ^ This project is the first to use RDS to conduct an HIV behavioral survey among undocumented Central American immigrant women. Our results will inform the design of future research studies and the implementation of HIV prevention activities among undocumented Central American immigrants in the U.S.^

Correlates of prenatal care initiation among low -income Hispanic women

Because Hispanic women are even less likely than women of other ethnic groups to receive early prenatal care, the purpose of this study was to identify factors that may influence these women to initiate care. After giving consent, 300 Hispanic women (100 who initiated first trimester care, 100 who initiated second trimester care, and 100 who initiated third trimester care or received no care) were interviewed in the post partum unit of a local public hospital. The interview included recollection of events leading to the first prenatal appointment, including first physical indicators of pregnancy, confirmation of pregnancy, feelings about the pregnancy, appointment making behavior, and system barriers encountered. The Health Belief Model was used as the theoretical framework for determining psychosocial variables. Using this model, perceived susceptibility to problems during pregnancy, perceived seriousness of possible problems, perceived benefits of prenatal care, perceived barriers to care, and cues to action were assessed. Time of entry into prenatal care was assessed by interview.^ In this sample of low-income Hispanic women, a higher perception of barriers to care was associated with later initiation of care and non-use of care, higher perceived benefits of care for the baby were associated with earlier care, especially in women without a card to access hospital district services, and having a card to access hospital district services was associated with earlier care. Several barriers to care were mentioned by women on open-ended questioning including long waiting times, embarrassment, and lack of transportation.^ Recommendations for practice included decreasing the number of visits for low-risk women while increasing the time spent with the provider, decreasing the number of vaginal exams for low-risk women, increasing the use of midwives, training lay workers to do risk assessment, giving specific messages about benefits of care to baby, and increasing general health motivation through community intervention methods. More research on the psychosocial and cultural factors associated with initiation of care is needed. In the meantime, the recommendations for practice can be implemented now to increase the use of prenatal care by low-income Hispanic women. ^

Two-way traveltimes of internal layers and ice thickness between Dome C - Vostok - Dome A

Chinese scientists will start to drill a deep ice core at Kunlun station near Dome A in the near future. Recent work has predicted that Dome A is a location where ice older than 1 million years can be found. We model flow, temperature and the age of the ice by applying a three-dimensional, thermomechanically coupled full-Stokes model to a 70 × 70 km**2 domain around Kunlun station, using isotropic non-linear rheology and different prescribed anisotropic ice fabrics that vary the evolution from isotropic to single maximum at 1/3 or 2/3 depths. The variation in fabric is about as important as the uncertainties in geothermal heat flux in determining the vertical advection which in consequence controls both the basal temperature and the age profile. We find strongly variable basal ages across the domain since the ice varies greatly in thickness, and any basal melting effectively removes very old ice in the deepest parts of the subglacial valleys. Comparison with dated radar isochrones in the upper one third of the ice sheet cannot sufficiently constrain the age of the deeper ice, with uncertainties as large as 500 000 years in the basal age. We also assess basal age and thermal state sensitivities to geothermal heat flux and surface conditions. Despite expectations of modest changes in surface height over a glacial cycle at Dome A, even small variations in the evolution of surface conditions cause large variation in basal conditions, which is consistent with basal accretion features seen in radar surveys.

Signals of resilience to ocean change: high thermal tolerance of early stage Antarctic sea urchins (Sterechinus neumayeri) reared under present-day and future pCO2 and temperature

We tested the hypothesis that development of the Antarctic urchin Sterechinus neumayeri under future ocean conditions of warming and acidification would incur physiological costs, reducing the tolerance of a secondary stressor. The aim of this study is twofold: (1) quantify current austral spring temperature and pH near sea urchin habitat at Cape Evans in McMurdo Sound, Antarctica and (2) spawn S. neumayeri in the laboratory and raise early developmental stages (EDSs) under ambient (-0.7 °C; 400 µatm pCO2) and future (+2.6 °C; 650 and 1,000 µatm pCO2) ocean conditions and expose four EDSs (blastula, gastrula, prism, and 4-arm echinopluteus) to a one hour acute heat stress and assess survivorship. Results of field data from 2011 to 2012 show extremely stable inter-annual pH conditions ranging from 7.99 to 8.08, suggesting that future ocean acidification will drastically alter the pH-seascape for S. neumayeri. In the laboratory, S. neumayeri EDSs appear to be tolerant of temperatures and pCO2 levels above their current habitat conditions. EDSs survived acute heat exposures >20 °C above habitat temperatures of -1.9 °C. No pCO2 effect was observed for EDSs reared at -0.7 °C. When reared at +2.6 °C, small but significant pCO2 effects were observed at the blastula and prism stage, suggesting that multiple stressors are more detrimental than single stressors. While surprisingly tolerant overall, blastulae were the most sensitive stage to ocean warming and acidification. We conclude that S. neumayeri may be unexpectedly physiologically tolerant of future ocean conditions.

Enhancement of photosynthetic carbon assimilation efficiency by phytoplankton in the future coastal ocean

A mesocosm experiment was conducted to evaluate the effects of future climate conditions on photosynthesis and productivity of coastal phytoplankton. Natural phytoplankton assemblages were incubated in field mesocosms under the ambient condition (present condition: ca. 400 ppmv CO2 and ambient temp.), and two future climate conditions (acidification condition: ca. 900 ppmv CO2 and ambient temp.; greenhouse condition: ca. 900 ppmv CO2 and 3 °C warmer than ambient). Photosynthetic parameters of steady-state light responses curves (LCs; measured by PAM fluorometer) and photosynthesis-irradiance curves (P-I curves; estimated by in situ incorporation of 14C) were compared to three conditions during the experiment period. Under acidification, electron transport efficiency (alpha LC) and photosynthetic 14C assimilation efficiency (alpha) were 10% higher than those of the present condition, but maximum rates of relative electron transport (rETRm,LC) and photosynthetic 14C assimilation (PBmax) were lower than the present condition by about 19% and 7%, respectively. In addition, rETRm,LC and alpha LC were not significantly different between and greenhouse conditions, but PBmax and alpha of greenhouse conditions were higher than those of the present condition by about 9% and 30%, respectively. In particular, the greenhouse condition has drastically higher PBmax and alpha than the present condition more than 60% during the post-bloom period. According to these results, two future ocean conditions have major positive effects on the photosynthesis in terms of energy utilization efficiency for organic carbon fixation through the inorganic carbon assimilation. Despite phytoplankton taking an advantage on photosynthesis, primary production of phytoplankton was not stimulated by future conditions. In particular, biomass of phytoplankton was depressed under both acidification and greenhouse conditions after the the pre-bloom period, and more research is required to suggest that some factors such as grazing activity could be important for regulating phytoplankton bloom in the future ocean.

Acclimatization to high-variance habitats does not enhance physiological tolerance of two key Caribbean corals to future temperature and pH

Corals are acclimatized to populate dynamic habitats that neighbour coral reefs. Habitats such as seagrass beds exhibit broad diel changes in temperature and pH that routinely expose corals to conditions predicted for reefs over the next 50-100 years. However, whether such acclimatization effectively enhances physiological tolerance to, and hence provides refuge against, future climate scenarios remains unknown. Also, whether corals living in low-variance habitats can tolerate present-day high-variance conditions remains untested. We experimentally examined how pH and temperature predicted for the year 2100 affects the growth and physiology of two dominant Caribbean corals (Acropora palmata and Porites astreoides) native to habitats with intrinsically low (outer-reef terrace, LV) and/or high (neighbouring seagrass, HV) environmental variance. Under present-day temperature and pH, growth and metabolic rates (calcification, respiration and photosynthesis) were unchanged for HV versus LV populations. Superimposing future climate scenarios onto the HV and LV conditions did not result in any enhanced tolerance to colonies native to HV. Calcification rates were always lower for elevated temperature and/or reduced pH. Together, these results suggest that seagrass habitats may not serve as refugia against climate change if the magnitude of future temperature and pH changes is equivalent to neighbouring reef habitats.

Factor decomposition of income inequality change : Japan's regional income disparity from 1955 to 1998

We propose a method for the decomposition of inequality changes based on panel data regression. The method is an efficient way to quantify the contributions of variables to changes of the Theil T index while satisfying the property of uniform addition. We illustrate the method using prefectural data from Japan for the period 1955 to 1998. Japan experienced a diminishing of regional income disparity during the years of high economic growth from 1955 to 1973. After estimating production functions using panel data for prefectures in Japan, we apply the new decomposition approach to identify each production factor’s contributions to the changes of per capita income inequality among prefectures. The decomposition results show that total factor productivity (residual) growth, population change (migration), and public capital stock growth contributed to the diminishing of per capita income disparity.

Measuring the effect of agricultural cooperatives on household income using PSM-DID : a case study of a rice-producing cooperative in China

Agricultural cooperatives in China, known as Farmers' Professional Cooperatives (FPCs), are becoming popular and have been intensely promoted by the Chinese government to improve the economic welfare of small farmers. However, very few studies on Chinese agricultural cooperatives have measured the benefits to farmers who participate in FPCs after controlling for time-invariant attributes of farmers. This paper investigates the treatment effect of participation in a rice-producing cooperative in suburban China using propensity score matching (PSM) and difference-in-differences (DID) method. Estimated results show that no significant difference is observed between participants and non-participants of the cooperative in terms of net income from rice production when controlling for the difference in farmers' rice incomes before the treatment. In addition, there is no significant heterogeneity of the treatment effects between large and small farmers, although the probability of participation in the cooperative is significantly higher when the size of cultivated rice farmland is greater. These results indicate that the benefits of the cooperative appear to be overestimated considering the vigorous policy supports for FPCs from the Chinese government.

Agent-based modeling and simulation for the design of the future european Air Traffic Management system: the experience of CASSIOPEIA

The SESAR (Single European Sky ATM Research) program is an ambitious re-search and development initiative to design the future European air traffic man-agement (ATM) system. The study of the behavior of ATM systems using agent-based modeling and simulation tools can help the development of new methods to improve their performance. This paper presents an overview of existing agent-based approaches in air transportation (paying special attention to the challenges that exist for the design of future ATM systems) and, subsequently, describes a new agent-based approach that we proposed in the CASSIOPEIA project, which was developed according to the goals of the SESAR program. In our approach, we use agent models for different ATM stakeholders, and, in contrast to previous work, our solution models new collaborative decision processes for flow traffic management, it uses an intermediate level of abstraction (useful for simulations at larger scales), and was designed to be a practical tool (open and reusable) for the development of different ATM studies. It was successfully applied in three stud-ies related to the design of future ATM systems in Europe.

An agent-based approach for the design of the future european air traffic management system

This paper describes an agent-based approach for the simulation of air traffic management (ATM) in Europe that was designed to help analyze proposals for future ATM systems. This approach is able to represent new collaborative deci-sion processes for flow traffic management, it uses an intermediate level of ab-straction (useful for simulations at larger scales), and was designed to be a practi-cal tool (open and reusable) for the development of different ATM studies. It was successfully applied in three studies related to the design of future ATM systems in Europe.

Exploring users inter-temporal preferences for measuring transport social equity effects

There exist different ways for defining a welfare function. Traditionally, welfare economic theory foundation is based on the Net Present Value (NPV) calculation where the time dependent preferences of considered agents are taken into account. However, the time preferences, remains a controversial subject. Currently, the traditional approach employs a unique discount rate for various agents. Nevertheless, this way of discounting appears inconsistent with sustainable development. New research work suggests that the discount rate may not be a homogeneous value. The discount rates may change following the individual’s preferences. A significant body of evidence suggests that people do not behave following a constant discount rate. In fact, UK Government has quickly recognized the power of the arguments for time-varying rates, as it has done in its official guidance to Ministries on the appraisal of investments and policies. Other authors deal with not just time preference but with uncertainty about future income (precautionary saving). In a situation in which economic growth rates are similar across time periods, the rationale for declining social optimal discount rates is driven by the preferences of the individuals in the economy, rather than expectations of growth. However, these approaches have been mainly focused on long-term policies where intergenerational risks may appear. The traditional cost-benefit analysis (CBA) uses a unique discount rate derived from market interest rates or investment rates of return for discounting the costs and benefits of all social agents included in the CBA. However, recent literature showed that a more adequate measure of social benefit is possible by using different discount rates including inter-temporal preferences rate of users, private investment discount rate and intertemporal preferences rate of government. Actually, the costs of opportunity may differ amongst individuals, firms, governments, or society in general, as do the returns on savings. In general, the firms or operators require an investment rate linked to the current return on savings, while the discount rate of consumers-users depends on their time preferences with respect of the current and the future consumption, as well as society can take into account the intergenerational well-being, adopting a lower discount rate for today’s generation. Time discount rate of social actors (users, operators, government and society) places a lower value in a future gain, but the uncertainty about future income strongly determines the individual preferences. These time and uncertainty depends on preferences and should be integrated into a transport policy formulation that may have significant social impacts. The discount rate of a user cannot be the same than the operator’s discount rate. The preferences of both are different. In addition, another school of thought suggests that people, such as a social group, may have different attitudes towards future costs and benefits. Particularly, the users have different discount rates related to their income. Some research work tried to modify user discount rates using a compensating weight which represents the inverse of household income level. The inter-temporal preferences are a proxy of the willingness to pay during the time. Its consideration is important in order to make acceptable or not a policy or investment

A multi-scale analysis of transforming agricultural markets in the context of globalization: implications for natural resources, food prices and rural poverty in Latin America

Vivimos una época en la que el mundo se transforma aceleradamente. La globalización está siguiendo un curso imparable, la población mundial así como la población urbana siguen creciendo, y en los países emergentes los ingresos promedios aumentan, resultando en un cambio también acelerado de las dietas y hábitos alimentarios. En conjunto esos factores están causando un aumento fundamental de la demanda de alimentos. Junto con la apertura de los mercados agrícolas, estos procesos han provocado un crecimiento del comercio internacional de alimentos durante la última década. Dado que muchos países de América Latina están dotados de abundancia de recursos naturales, estas tendencias han producido un crecimiento rápido de las exportaciones de bienes primarios desde América Latina al resto del mundo. En sólo 30 años la participación en el mercado agrícola de América Latina casi se ha duplicado, desde 10% en 1980 a 18% en 2010. Este aumento del comercio agrícola ha dado lugar a un debate sobre una serie de cuestiones cruciales relacionadas con los impactos del comercio en la seguridad alimentaria mundial, en el medio ambiente o en la reducción de la pobreza rural en países en desarrollo. Esta tesis aplica un marco integrado para analizar varios impactos relacionados con la transformación de los mercados agrícolas y los mercados rurales debidos a la globalización y, en particular, al progresivo aumento del comercio internacional. En concreto, la tesis aborda los siguientes temas: En primer lugar, la producción mundial de alimentos tendrá que aumentar considerablemente para poder satisfacer la demanda de una población mundial de 9000 millones personas en 2050, lo cual plantea grandes desafíos sobre los sistemas de la producción de alimentos. Alcanzar este logro, sin comprometer la integridad del medio ambiente en regiones exportadoras, es un reto aún mayor. En este contexto, la tesis analiza los efectos de la liberalización del comercio mundial, considerando distintas tecnologías de producción agraria, sobre unos indicadores de seguridad alimentaria en diferentes regiones del mundo y sobre distintos indicadores ambientales, teniendo en cuenta escalas diferentes en América Latina y el Caribe. La tesis utiliza el modelo “International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT)” – un modelo dinámico de equilibrio parcial del sector agrícola a escala global – para modelar la apertura de los mercados agrícolas así como diferentes escenarios de la producción hasta el año 2050. Los resultados del modelo están vinculados a modelos biofísicos para poder evaluar los cambios en la huella hídrica y la calidad del agua, así como para cuantificar los impactos del cambio en el uso del suelo sobre la biodiversidad y los stocks de carbono en 2050. Los resultados indican que la apertura de los mercados agrícolas es muy importante para mejorar la seguridad alimentaria a nivel mundial, sin embargo, produce también presiones ambientales indeseables en algunas regiones de América Latina. Contrastando dos escenarios que consideran distintas modos de producción, la expansión de la tierra agrícola frente a un escenario de la producción más intensiva, se demuestra que las mejoras de productividad son generalmente superiores a la expansión de las tierras agrícolas, desde un punto de vista económico e ambiental. En cambio, los escenarios de intensificación sostenible no sólo hacen posible una mayor producción de alimentos, sino que también generan menos impactos medioambientales que los otros escenarios futuros en todas sus dimensiones: biodiversidad, carbono, emisiones de nitratos y uso del agua. El análisis muestra que hay un “trade-off” entre el objetivo de alcanzar la sostenibilidad ambiental y el objetivo de la seguridad alimentaria, independiente del manejo agrícola en el futuro. En segundo lugar, a la luz de la reciente crisis de los precios de alimentos en los años 2007/08, la tesis analiza los impactos de la apertura de los mercados agrícolas en la transmisión de precios de los alimentos en seis países de América Latina: Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Colombia, México y el Perú. Para identificar las posibles relaciones de cointegración entre los índices de precios al consumidor de alimentos y los índices de precios de agrarios internacionales, sujetos a diferentes grados de apertura de mercados agrícolas en los seis países de América Latina, se utiliza un modelo simple de corrección de error (single equation error correction). Los resultados indican que la integración global de los mercados agrícolas ha dado lugar a diferentes tasas de transmisión de precios en los países investigados. Sobre todo en el corto plazo, las tasas de transmisión dependen del grado de apertura comercial, mientras que en el largo plazo las tasas de transmisión son elevadas, pero en gran medida independientes del régimen de comercio. Por lo tanto, durante un período de shocks de precios mundiales una mayor apertura del comercio trae consigo más inestabilidad de los precios domésticos a corto plazo y la resultante persistencia en el largo plazo. Sin embargo, estos resultados no verifican necesariamente la utilidad de las políticas comerciales, aplicadas frecuentemente por los gobiernos para amortiguar los shocks de precios. Primero, porque existe un riesgo considerable de volatilidad de los precios debido a cambios bruscos de la oferta nacional si se promueve la autosuficiencia en el país; y segundo, la política de proteccionismo asume el riesgo de excluir el país de participar en las cadenas de suministro de alto valor del sector agrícola, y por lo tanto esa política podría obstaculizar el desarrollo económico. Sin embargo, es indispensable establecer políticas efectivas para reducir la vulnerabilidad de los hogares a los aumentos repentinos de precios de alimentos, lo cual requiere una planificación gubernamental precisa con el presupuesto requerido disponible. En tercer lugar, la globalización afecta a la estructura de una economía y, por medios distintos, la distribución de los ingreso en un país. Perú sirve como ejemplo para investigar más profundamente las cuestiones relacionadas con los cambios en la distribución de los ingresos en zonas rurales. Perú, que es un país que está cada vez más integrado en los mercados mundiales, consiguió importantes descensos en la pobreza extrema en sus zonas rurales, pero a la vez adolece de alta incidencia de pobreza moderada y de desigualdad de los ingresos en zonas rural al menos durante el periodo comprendido entre 2004 y 2012. Esta parte de la tesis tiene como objetivo identificar las fuerzas impulsoras detrás de estas dinámicas en el Perú mediante el uso de un modelo de microsimulación basado en modelos de generación de ingresos aplicado a nivel los hogares rurales. Los resultados indican que la fuerza principal detrás de la reducción de la pobreza ha sido el crecimiento económico general de la economía, debido a las condiciones macroeconómicas favorables durante el periodo de estudio. Estos efectos de crecimiento beneficiaron a casi todos los sectores rurales, y dieron lugar a la disminución de la pobreza rural extrema, especialmente entre los agricultores de papas y de maíz. En parte, estos agricultores probablemente se beneficiaron de la apertura de los mercados agrícolas, que es lo que podría haber provocado un aumento de los precios al productor en tiempos de altos precios mundiales de los alimentos. Sin embargo, los resultados también sugieren que para una gran parte de la población más pobre existían barreras de entrada a la hora de poder participar en el empleo asalariado fuera de la agricultura o en la producción de cultivos de alto valor. Esto podría explicarse por la falta de acceso a unos activos importantes: por ejemplo, el nivel de educación de los pobres era apenas mejor en 2012 que en 2004; y también las dotaciones de tierra y de mano de obra, sobre todo de los productores pobres de maíz y patata, disminuyeron entre 2004 y 2012. Esto lleva a la conclusión de que aún hay margen para aplicar políticas para facilitar el acceso a estos activos, que podría contribuir a la erradicación de la pobreza rural. La tesis concluye que el comercio agrícola puede ser un importante medio para abastecer una población mundial creciente y más rica con una cantidad suficiente de calorías. Para evitar adversos efectos ambientales e impactos negativos para los consumidores y de los productores pobres, el enfoque debe centrarse en las mejoras de la productividad agrícola, teniendo en cuenta los límites ambientales y ser socialmente inclusivo. En este sentido, será indispensable seguir desarrollando soluciones tecnológicas que garanticen prácticas de producción agrícola minimizando el uso de recursos naturales. Además, para los pequeños pobres agricultores será fundamental eliminar las barreras de entrada a los mercados de exportación que podría tener efectos indirectos favorables a través de la adopción de nuevas tecnologías alcanzables a través de mercados internacionales. ABSTRACT The world is in a state of rapid transition. Ongoing globalization, population growth, rising living standards and increasing urbanization, accompanied by changing dietary patterns throughout the world, are increasing the demand for food. Together with more open trade regimes, this has triggered growing international agricultural trade during the last decade. For many Latin American countries, which are gifted with relative natural resource abundance, these trends have fueled rapid export growth of primary goods. In just 30 years, the Latin American agricultural market share has almost doubled from 10% in 1980 to 18% in 2010. These market developments have given rise to a debate around a number of crucial issues related to the role of agricultural trade for global food security, for the environment or for poverty reduction in developing countries. This thesis uses an integrated framework to analyze a broad array of possible impacts related to transforming agricultural and rural markets in light of globalization, and in particular of increasing trade activity. Specifically, the following issues are approached: First, global food production will have to rise substantially by the year 2050 to meet effective demand of a nine billion people world population which poses major challenges to food production systems. Doing so without compromising environmental integrity in exporting regions is an even greater challenge. In this context, the thesis explores the effects of future global trade liberalization on food security indicators in different world regions and on a variety of environmental indicators at different scales in Latin America and the Caribbean, in due consideration of different future agricultural production practices. The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) –a global dynamic partial equilibrium model of the agricultural sector developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)– is applied to run different future production scenarios, and agricultural trade regimes out to 2050. Model results are linked to biophysical models, used to assess changes in water footprints and water quality, as well as impacts on biodiversity and carbon stocks from land use change by 2050. Results indicate that further trade liberalization is crucial for improving food security globally, but that it would also lead to more environmental pressures in some regions across Latin America. Contrasting land expansion versus more intensified agriculture shows that productivity improvements are generally superior to agricultural land expansion, from an economic and environmental point of view. Most promising for achieving food security and environmental goals, in equal measure, is the sustainable intensification scenario. However, the analysis shows that there are trade-offs between environmental and food security goals for all agricultural development paths. Second, in light of the recent food price crisis of 2007/08, the thesis looks at the impacts of increasing agricultural market integration on food price transmission from global to domestic markets in six Latin American countries, namely Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru. To identify possible cointegrating relationships between the domestic food consumer price indices and world food price levels, subject to different degrees of agricultural market integration in the six Latin American countries, a single equation error correction model is used. Results suggest that global agricultural market integration has led to different levels of price path-through in the studied countries. Especially in the short-run, transmission rates depend on the degree of trade openness, while in the long-run transmission rates are high, but largely independent of the country-specific trade regime. Hence, under world price shocks more trade openness brings with it more price instability in the short-term and the resulting persistence in the long-term. However, these findings do not necessarily verify the usefulness of trade policies, often applied by governments to buffer such price shocks. First, because there is a considerable risk of price volatility due to domestic supply shocks if self-sufficiency is promoted. Second, protectionism bears the risk of excluding a country from participating in beneficial high-value agricultural supply chains, thereby hampering economic development. Nevertheless, to reduce households’ vulnerability to sudden and large increases of food prices, effective policies to buffer food price shocks should be put in place, but must be carefully planned with the required budget readily available. Third, globalization affects the structure of an economy and, by different means, the distribution of income in a country. Peru serves as an example to dive deeper into questions related to changes in the income distribution in rural areas. Peru, a country being increasingly integrated into global food markets, experienced large drops in extreme rural poverty, but persistently high rates of moderate rural poverty and rural income inequality between 2004 and 2012. The thesis aims at disentangling the driving forces behind these dynamics by using a microsimulation model based on rural household income generation models. Results provide evidence that the main force behind poverty reduction was overall economic growth of the economy due to generally favorable macroeconomic market conditions. These growth effects benefited almost all rural sectors, and led to declines in extreme rural poverty, especially among potato and maize farmers. In part, these farmers probably benefited from policy changes towards more open trade regimes and the resulting higher producer prices in times of elevated global food price levels. However, the results also suggest that entry barriers existed for the poorer part of the population to participate in well-paid wage-employment outside of agriculture or in high-value crop production. This could be explained by a lack of sufficient access to important rural assets. For example, poor people’s educational attainment was hardly better in 2012 than in 2004. Also land and labor endowments, especially of (poor) maize and potato growers, rather decreased than increased over time. This leads to the conclusion that there is still scope for policy action to facilitate access to these assets, which could contribute to the eradication of rural poverty. The thesis concludes that agricultural trade can be one important means to provide a growing and richer world population with sufficient amounts of calories. To avoid adverse environmental effects and negative impacts for poor food consumers and producers, the focus should lie on agricultural productivity improvements, considering environmental limits and be socially inclusive. In this sense, it will be crucial to further develop technological solutions that guarantee resource-sparing agricultural production practices, and to remove entry barriers for small poor farmers to export markets which might allow for technological spill-over effects from high-value global agricultural supply chains.

How future trends may affect international cooperation in planning education : the case of Spain and Latin America

Despite the benefits for exc hanging experiences among planners at the global scale, the strong context dependency of urban planning creates in many instances significant difficulties to extrapolate experiences from one geographical context to the other. If progress is to be achieved in international cooperation programmes, differences and commonalities should be assessed before la unching any academic initiative. In that respect, this p aper makes a brief foresight exercise on how future trends and challenges, which may affect the urban pl anning field, should be taken into consideration according to two different contexts: Spain and Latin America. A segmentation matrix is used to expose a nd discuss the different effects of future trends on both contexts. Some tentative conclusions are drawn for the development of international educational programmes