In search of a hidden long-term isolated sub-chondritic 142Nd/144Nd reservoir in the deep mantle : implications for the Nd isotope systematics of the Earth

Here we search for evidence of the existence of a sub-chondritic 142Nd/144Nd reservoir that balances the Nd isotope chemistry of the Earth relative to chondrites. If present, it may reside in the source region of deeply sourced mantle plume material. We suggest that lavas from Hawai’i with coupled elevations in 186Os/188Os and 187Os/188Os, from Iceland that represent mixing of upper mantle and lower mantle components, and from Gough with sub-chondritic 143Nd/144Nd and high 207Pb/206Pb, are favorable samples that could reflect mantle sources that have interacted with an Early-Enriched Reservoir (EER) with sub-chondritic 142Nd/144Nd. High-precision Nd isotope analyses of basalts from Hawai’i, Iceland and Gough demonstrate no discernable 142Nd/144Nd deviation from terrestrial standards. These data are consistent with previous high-precision Nd isotope analysis of recent mantle-derived samples and demonstrate that no mantle-derived material to date provides evidence for the existence of an EER in the mantle. We then evaluate mass balance in the Earth with respect to both 142Nd/144Nd and 143Nd/144Nd. The Nd isotope systematics of EERs are modeled for different sizes and timing of formation relative to ε143Nd estimates of the reservoirs in the μ142Nd = 0 Earth, where μ142Nd is ((measured 142Nd/144Nd/terrestrial standard 142Nd/144Nd)−1 * 10−6) and the μ142Nd = 0 Earth is the proportion of the silicate Earth with 142Nd/144Nd indistinguishable from the terrestrial standard. The models indicate that it is not possible to balance the Earth with respect to both 142Nd/144Nd and 143Nd/144Nd unless the μ142Nd = 0 Earth has a ε143Nd within error of the present-day Depleted Mid-ocean ridge basalt Mantle source (DMM). The 4567 Myr age 142Nd–143Nd isochron for the Earth intersects μ142Nd = 0 at ε143Nd of +8 ± 2 providing a minimum ε143Nd for the μ142Nd = 0 Earth. The high ε143Nd of the μ142Nd = 0 Earth is confirmed by the Nd isotope systematics of Archean mantle-derived rocks that consistently have positive ε143Nd. If the EER formed early after solar system formation (0–70 Ma) continental crust and DMM can be complementary reservoirs with respect to Nd isotopes, with no requirement for significant additional reservoirs. If the EER formed after 70 Ma then the μ142Nd = 0 Earth must have a bulk ε143Nd more radiogenic than DMM and additional high ε143Nd material is required to balance the Nd isotope systematics of the Earth.

The self-Googling phenomenon : investigating the performance of personalized information resources

This paper investigates self–Googling through the monitoring of search engine activities of users and adds to the few quantitative studies on this topic already in existence. We explore this phenomenon by answering the following questions: To what extent is the self–Googling visible in the usage of search engines; is any significant difference measurable between queries related to self–Googling and generic search queries; to what extent do self–Googling search requests match the selected personalised Web pages? To address these questions we explore the theory of narcissism in order to help define self–Googling and present the results from a 14–month online experiment using Google search engine usage data.

An indexing model for sustainable urban environmental management : the case of Gold Coast, Australia

Improving urban ecosystems and the quality of life of citizens have become a central issue in the global effort of creating sustainable built environments. As human beings our lives completely depend on the sustainability of the nature and we need to protect and manage natural resources in a more sustainable way in order to sustain our existence. As a result of population growth and rapid urbanisation, increasing demand of productivity depletes and degrades natural resources. However, the increasing activities and rapid development require more resources, and therefore, ecological planning becomes an essential vehicle in preserving scarce natural resources. This paper aims to indentify the interation between urban ecosystems and human activities in the context of urban sustainability and explores the degrading environmental impacts of this interaction and the necessity and benefits of using sustainability indicators as a tool in sustainable urban evnironmental management. Additionally, the paper also introduces an environmental sustainability indexing model (ASSURE) as an innovative approach to evaluate the environmental conditions of built environment.

Decision support system for contractor pre-qualification : artificial neural network model

The selection criteria for contractor pre-qualification are characterized by the co-existence of both quantitative and qualitative data. The qualitative data is non-linear, uncertain and imprecise. An ideal decision support system for contractor pre-qualification should have the ability of handling both quantitative and qualitative data, and of mapping the complicated nonlinear relationship of the selection criteria, such that rational and consistent decisions can be made. In this research paper, an artificial neural network model was developed to assist public clients identifying suitable contractors for tendering. The pre-qualification criteria (variables) were identified for the model. One hundred and twelve real pre-qualification cases were collected from civil engineering projects in Hong Kong, and eighty-eight hypothetical pre-qualification cases were also generated according to the “If-then” rules used by professionals in the pre-qualification process. The results of the analysis totally comply with current practice (public developers in Hong Kong). Each pre-qualification case consisted of input ratings for candidate contractors’ attributes and their corresponding pre-qualification decisions. The training of the neural network model was accomplished by using the developed program, in which a conjugate gradient descent algorithm was incorporated for improving the learning performance of the network. Cross-validation was applied to estimate the generalization errors based on the “re-sampling” of training pairs. The case studies show that the artificial neural network model is suitable for mapping the complicated nonlinear relationship between contractors’ attributes and their corresponding pre-qualification (disqualification) decisions. The artificial neural network model can be concluded as an ideal alternative for performing the contractor pre-qualification task.

Comparing "socially responsible" and "sustainable" commercial property investment

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to set out to explore the similarities and differences between jargon used to describe future-focussed commercial building product. This is not so much an exercise in semantics as an attempt to demonstrate that responses to challenges facing the construction and property sectors may have more to do with language than is generally appreciated. Design/methodology/approach – This is a conceptual analysis which draws upon relevant literature. Findings – Social responsibility and sustainability are often held to be much the same thing, with each term presupposing the existence of the other. Clearly, however, there are incidences where sustainable commercial property investment (SCPI) may not be particularly socially responsible, despite being understood as an environmentally friendly initiative. By contrast, socially responsible assets, at least in theory, should always be more sustainable than mainstream non-ethically based investment. Put simply, the expression of social responsibility in the built environment may evoke, and thereby deliver, a more sustainable product, as defined by wider socially inclusive parameters. Practical implications – The findings show that promoting an ethic of social responsibility may well result in more SCPI. Thus, the further articulation and celebration of social responsibility concepts may well help to further advance a sustainable property investment agenda, which is arguably more concerned about demonstrability of efficiency than wider public good outcomes. Originality/value – The idea that jargon affects outcomes is not new. However, this idea has rarely, if ever, been applied to the distinctions between social responsibility and sustainability. Even a moderate re-emphasis on social responsibility in preference to sustainability may well provide significant future benefits with respect to the investment, building and refurbishment of commercial property.

Space and Cyberspace: on the enclosure of consciousness

In this chapter I argue that the global privatisation of elctromagnetic spectrum marks this period as historically unique. I also put forward conceptual categories for understanding the nature of an emergent cybereconomy. They correspond to classical conceptions of property, value and labour, but in no way treat these categories as singular, simple or unproblematic. From a perspective informed largely by Marx’s critique of classical political economy, I frame the creation of a global cyberspace as the enclosure, or “privatisation”, of conscious activity. I argue that a full and formally defined cyberspace, at least as it is currenty conceived of, must prefigure the eventual alienation of human social existence at its most fundamental and definitive level: consciousness.

Heart versus mind : the functions of emotional and cognitive loyalty

While there is substantial research on attitudinal and behavioral loyalty, the deconstruction of attitudinal loyalty into its two key components – emotional and cognitive loyalty – has been largely ignored. Despite the existence of managerial strategies aimed at increasing each of these two components, there is little academic research to support these managerial efforts. This paper seeks to advance the understanding of emotional and cognitive brand loyalty by examining the psychological function that these dimensions of brand loyalty perform for the consumer. We employ Katz’s (1960) four functions of attitudes (utilitarian, knowledge, value-expression, ego-defence) to investigate this question. Surveys using a convenience sample were completed by 268 consumers in two metropolitan cities on a variety of goods, services and durable products. The relationship between the functions and dimensions of loyalty were examined using MANOVA. The results show that both the utilitarian and knowledge functions of loyalty are significantly positively related to cognitive loyalty while the ego-defensive function of loyalty is significantly positively related to emotional loyalty. The results for the value-expressive function of loyalty were nonsignificant.

A model of teacher professional development based on the principles of lesson study

The researcher’s professional role as an Education Officer was the impetus for this study. Designing and implementing professional development activities is a significant component of the researcher’s position description and as a result of reflection and feedback from participants and colleagues, the creation of a more effective model of professional development became the focus for this study. Few studies have examined all three links between the purposes of professional development that is, increasing teacher knowledge, improving teacher practice, and improving student outcomes. This study is significant in that it investigates the nature of the growth of teachers who participated in a model of professional development which was based upon the principles of Lesson Study. The research provides qualitative and empirical data to establish some links between teacher knowledge, teacher practice, and student learning outcomes. Teacher knowledge in this study refers to mathematics content knowledge as well as pedagogical-content knowledge. The outcomes for students include achievement outcomes, attitudinal outcomes, and behavioural outcomes. As the study was conducted at one school-site, existence proof research was the focus of the methodology and data collection. Developing over the 2007 school year, with five teacher-participants and approximately 160 students from Year Levels 6 to 9, the Lesson Study-principled model of professional development provided the teacher-participants with on-site, on-going, and reflective learning based on their classroom environment. The focus area for the professional development was strategising the engagement with and solution of worded mathematics problems. A design experiment was used to develop the professional development as an intervention of prevailing teacher practice for which data were collected prior to and after the period of intervention. A model of teacher change was developed as an underpinning framework for the development of the study, and was useful in making decisions about data collection and analyses. Data sources consisted of questionnaires, pre-tests and post-tests, interviews, and researcher observations and field notes. The data clearly showed that: content knowledge and pedagogical-content knowledge were increased among the teacher-participants; teacher practice changed in a positive manner; and that a majority of students demonstrated improved learning outcomes. The positive changes to teacher practice are described in this study as the demonstrated use of mixed pedagogical practices rather than a polarisation to either traditional pedagogical practices or contemporary pedagogical practices. The improvement in student learning outcomes was most significant as improved achievement outcomes as indicated by the comparison of pre-test and post-test scores. The effectiveness of the Lesson Study-principled model of professional development used in this study was evaluated using Guskey’s (2005) Five Levels of Professional Development Evaluation.

Medienvermittelte transnationale Öffentlichkeiten im Zeitalter praktischer Hybridisierung (English title: Mediated transnational publics in environments of practical hybridisation)

This article is concerned with the repercussions of societal change on transnational media. It offers a new understanding of multilingual programming strategies by examining “Radio MultiKulti” (RM), a public service radio station discontinued from 1/1/2009 by Rundfunk Berlin-Brandenburg. In its fourteen years of existence, “RM” had to implement a well-intended and politically-motivated logic of ‘multiethnic, intercultural service station’. However, as we demonstrate, such a direction, despite some achievements, has resulted in the constraints to RM’s journalistic activities and language policy, drawing criticism for the station’s economic viability. This paper proposes that multilingual media services are to be framed by the concept of practical hybridity that allows a necessary responsiveness towards an ever-changing media environment, at the moment within digital culture. Our approach draws on Mikhail Bakhtin’s and Yuri Lotman’s theoretical approaches to hybridity, as well as in-depth interviews conducted with “RM” staff from 2005 onwards, further interviews with key agents outside RM and a continuous monitoring of the public debate which culminated at the end of 2008 in the controversial decision to close the radio station. Against this background, the concluding remarks are meant to contribute to the scholarly debate on hybridization as well as to inform multilingual media policy in the 21st century.

Beyond airport enclaves : insights for overcoming turf wars

Airports, over time, have emerged as separate independent entities often described as ‘enclaves’. As such airports regularly planned and implemented developments within their boundaries with limited inclusion of local actors in decision making processes. Urban encroachment on airport boundaries has increasingly focused the planning interests of airports to consider what their neighbouring cities are doing. Likewise city planners are progressively more interested in the development activities of airports. Despite shared interests in what happens on the either side of the fence line, relationships between airports and their neighbouring cities have often been strained, if not, at times, hostile. A number of strategies and conceptualisations for the co-existence of urban and airport environs have been put forward. However, these models are likely to have a limited effect unless they can be implemented to maximise opportunities for both cities and airports, and at the same time not confound their long-term interests. The isolation of airport planning from local and regional planning agencies, and the resulting power struggles are not new. Under current conditions the need to ‘bridge the gap’ between airports and their urban surrounds has become an increasing, yet under explored imperative. This paper examines the decision making arena for airport-region development to define the barriers, enablers, tensions and puzzles for the governance of airport-region development, from a cross-country perspective. Findings suggest that while there are many embedded rule structures that foster airport-region tensions, there are nonetheless a number of pathways for moving airports beyond decision making enclaves, to more integrated mechanisms for city and regional planning. In providing preliminary answers for overcoming the barriers, tensions and intractable issues of mutually agreeable airport and city development, the research makes a primary contribution to the ground level governance of collaborative planning. This research also serves as a launching point for future, more detailed research into the areas of airport-region decision making and collaborative planning for airport-regions. This work was carried out through the Airport Metropolis Research Project under the Australian Research Council’s Linkage Projects funding scheme (LP0775225).

Stem cell–related gene expression in clonal populations of mesenchymal stromal cells from bone marrow

Decline in the frequency of potent mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) has been implicated in ageing and degenerative diseases. Increasing the circulating stem cell population can lead to renewed recruitment of these potent cells at sites of damage. Therefore, identifying the ideal cells for ex vivo expansion will form a major pursuit of clinical applications. This study is a follow-up of previous work that demonstrated the occurrence of fast-growing multipotential cells from the bone marrow samples. To investigate the molecular processes involved in the existence of such varying populations, gene expression studies were performed between fast- and slow-growing clonal populations to identify potential genetic markers associated with stemness using the quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction comprising a series of 84 genes related to stem cell pathways. A group of 10 genes were commonly overrepresented in the fast-growing stem cell clones. These included genes that encode proteins involved in the maintenance of embryonic and neural stem cell renewal (sex-determining region Y-box 2, notch homolog 1, and delta-like 3), proteins associated with chondrogenesis (aggrecan and collagen 2 A1), growth factors (bone morphogenetic protein 2 and insulin-like growth factor 1), an endodermal organogenesis protein (forkhead box a2), and proteins associated with cell-fate specification (fibroblast growth factor 2 and cell division cycle 2). Expression of diverse differentiation genes in MSC clones suggests that these commonly expressed genes may confer the maintenance of multipotentiality and self-renewal of MSCs.

Reading the environment : narrative constructions of ecological subjectivities in Australian children's literature

Ways in which humans engage with the environment have always provided a rich source of material for writers and illustrators of Australian children's literature. Currently, readers are confronted with a multiplicity of complex, competing and/or complementing networks of ideas, theories and emotions that provide narratives about human engagement with the environment at a particular historical moment. This study, entitled Reading the Environment: Narrative Constructions of Ecological Subjectivities in Australian Children's Literature, examines how a representative sample of Australian texts (19 picture books and 4 novels for children and young adults published between 1995 and 2006) constructs fictional ecological subjects in the texts, and offers readers ecological subject positions inscribed with contemporary environmental ideologies. The conceptual framework developed in this study identifies three ideologically grounded positions that humans may assume when engaging with the environment. None of these positions clearly exists independently of any other, nor are they internally homogeneous. Nevertheless they can be categorised as: (i) human dominion over the environment with little regard for environmental degradation (unrestrained anthropocentrism); (ii) human consideration for the environment driven by understandings that humans need the environment to survive (restrained anthropocentrism); and (iii) human deference towards the environment guided by understandings that humans are no more important than the environment (ecocentrism). iv The transdisciplinary methodological approach to textual analysis used in this thesis draws on ecocriticism, narrative theories, visual semiotics, ecofeminism and postcolonialism to discuss the difficulties and contradictions in the construction of the positions offered. Each chapter of textual analysis focuses on the construction of subjectivities in relation to one of the positions identified in the conceptual framework. Chapter 5 is concerned with how texts highlight the negative consequences of human dominion over the environment, or, in the words of this study, living with ecocatastrophe. Chapter 6 examines representations of restrained anthropocentrism in its contemporary form, that is, sustainability. Chapter 7 examines representations of ecocentrism, a radical position with inherent difficulties of representation. According to the analysis undertaken, the focus texts convey the subtleties and complexities of human engagement with the environment and advocate ways of viewing and responding to contemporary unease about the environment. The study concludes that these ways of viewing and responding conform to and/or challenge dominant socio-cultural and political-economic opinions regarding the environment. This study, the first extended work of its kind, makes an original contribution to ecocritical study of Australian children's literature. By undertaking a comprehensive analysis of how texts for children represent human engagement with the environment at a time when important environmental concerns pose significant threats to human existence, I hope to contribute new knowledge to an area of children's literature research that to date has been significantly under-represented.

Theoretical investigation of mechanisms of formation and interaction of nanoparticles

In this thesis an investigation into theoretical models for formation and interaction of nanoparticles is presented. The work presented includes a literature review of current models followed by a series of five chapters of original research. This thesis has been submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of doctor of philosophy by publication and therefore each of the five chapters consist of a peer-reviewed journal article. The thesis is then concluded with a discussion of what has been achieved during the PhD candidature, the potential applications for this research and ways in which the research could be extended in the future. In this thesis we explore stochastic models pertaining to the interaction and evolution mechanisms of nanoparticles. In particular, we explore in depth the stochastic evaporation of molecules due to thermal activation and its ultimate effect on nanoparticles sizes and concentrations. Secondly, we analyse the thermal vibrations of nanoparticles suspended in a fluid and subject to standing oscillating drag forces (as would occur in a standing sound wave) and finally on lattice surfaces in the presence of high heat gradients. We have described in this thesis a number of new models for the description of multicompartment networks joined by a multiple, stochastically evaporating, links. The primary motivation for this work is in the description of thermal fragmentation in which multiple molecules holding parts of a carbonaceous nanoparticle may evaporate. Ultimately, these models predict the rate at which the network or aggregate fragments into smaller networks/aggregates and with what aggregate size distribution. The models are highly analytic and describe the fragmentation of a link holding multiple bonds using Markov processes that best describe different physical situations and these processes have been analysed using a number of mathematical methods. The fragmentation of the network/aggregate is then predicted using combinatorial arguments. Whilst there is some scepticism in the scientific community pertaining to the proposed mechanism of thermal fragmentation,we have presented compelling evidence in this thesis supporting the currently proposed mechanism and shown that our models can accurately match experimental results. This was achieved using a realistic simulation of the fragmentation of the fractal carbonaceous aggregate structure using our models. Furthermore, in this thesis a method of manipulation using acoustic standing waves is investigated. In our investigation we analysed the effect of frequency and particle size on the ability for the particle to be manipulated by means of a standing acoustic wave. In our results, we report the existence of a critical frequency for a particular particle size. This frequency is inversely proportional to the Stokes time of the particle in the fluid. We also find that for large frequencies the subtle Brownian motion of even larger particles plays a significant role in the efficacy of the manipulation. This is due to the decreasing size of the boundary layer between acoustic nodes. Our model utilises a multiple time scale approach to calculating the long term effects of the standing acoustic field on the particles that are interacting with the sound. These effects are then combined with the effects of Brownian motion in order to obtain a complete mathematical description of the particle dynamics in such acoustic fields. Finally, in this thesis, we develop a numerical routine for the description of "thermal tweezers". Currently, the technique of thermal tweezers is predominantly theoretical however there has been a handful of successful experiments which demonstrate the effect it practise. Thermal tweezers is the name given to the way in which particles can be easily manipulated on a lattice surface by careful selection of a heat distribution over the surface. Typically, the theoretical simulations of the effect can be rather time consuming with supercomputer facilities processing data over days or even weeks. Our alternative numerical method for the simulation of particle distributions pertaining to the thermal tweezers effect use the Fokker-Planck equation to derive a quick numerical method for the calculation of the effective diffusion constant as a result of the lattice and the temperature. We then use this diffusion constant and solve the diffusion equation numerically using the finite volume method. This saves the algorithm from calculating many individual particle trajectories since it is describes the flow of the probability distribution of particles in a continuous manner. The alternative method that is outlined in this thesis can produce a larger quantity of accurate results on a household PC in a matter of hours which is much better than was previously achieveable.

Micro-family-owned business : transitory survival mechanism or long term wealth creator?

Principal Topic: Entrepreneurship is key to employment, innovation and growth (Acs & Mueller, 2008), and as such, has been the subject of tremendous research in both the economic and management literatures since Solow (1957), Schumpeter (1934, 1943), and Penrose (1959). The presence of entrepreneurs in the economy is a key factor in the success or failure of countries to grow (Audretsch and Thurik, 2001; Dejardin, 2001). Further studies focus on the conditions of existence of entrepreneurship, influential factors invoked are historical, cultural, social, institutional, or purely economic (North, 1997; Thurik 1996 & 1999). Of particular interest, beyond the reasons behind the existence of entrepreneurship, are entrepreneurial survival and good ''performance'' factors. Using cross-country firm data analysis, La Porta & Schleifer (2008) confirm that informal micro-businesses provide on average half of all economic activity in developing countries. They find that these are utterly unproductive compared to formal firms, and conclude that the informal sector serves as a social security net ''keep[ing] millions of people alive, but disappearing over time'' (abstract). Robison (1986), Hill (1996, 1997) posit that the Indonesian government under Suharto always pointed to the lack of indigenous entrepreneurship , thereby motivating the nationalisation of all industries. Furthermore, the same literature also points to the fact that small businesses were mostly left out of development programmes because they were supposed less productive and having less productivity potential than larger ones. Vial (2008) challenges this view and shows that small firms represent about 70% of firms, 12% of total output, but contribute to 25% of total factor productivity growth on average over the period 1975-94 in the industrial sector (Table 10, p.316). ---------- Methodology/Key Propositions: A review of the empirical literature points at several under-researched questions. Firstly, we assess whether there is, evidence of small family-business entrepreneurship in Indonesia. Secondly, we examine and present the characteristics of these enterprises, along with the size of the sector, and its dynamics. Thirdly, we study whether these enterprises underperform compared to the larger scale industrial sector, as it is suggested in the literature. We reconsider performance measurements for micro-family owned businesses. We suggest that, beside productivity measures, performance could be appraised by both the survival probability of the firm, and by the amount of household assets formation. We compare micro-family-owned and larger industrial firms' survival probabilities after the 1997 crisis, their capital productivity, then compare household assets of families involved in business with those who do not. Finally, we examine human and social capital as moderators of enterprises' performance. In particular, we assess whether a higher level of education and community participation have an effect on the likelihood of running a family business, and whether it has an impact on households' assets level. We use the IFLS database compiled and published by RAND Corporation. The data is a rich community, households, and individuals panel dataset in four waves: 1993, 1997, 2000, 2007. We now focus on the waves 1997 and 2000 in order to investigate entrepreneurship behaviours in turbulent times, i.e. the 1997 Asian crisis. We use aggregate individual data, and focus on households data in order to study micro-family-owned businesses. IFLS data covers roughly 7,600 households in 1997 and over 10,000 households in 2000, with about 95% of 1997 households re-interviewed in 2000. Households were interviewed in 13 of the 27 provinces as defined before 2001. Those 13 provinces were targeted because accounting for 83% of the population. A full description of the data is provided in Frankenberg and Thomas (2000), and Strauss et alii (2004). We deflate all monetary values in Rupiah with the World Development Indicators Consumer Price Index base 100 in 2000. ---------- Results and Implications: We find that in Indonesia, entrepreneurship is widespread and two thirds of households hold one or several family businesses. In rural areas, in 2000, 75% of households run one or several businesses. The proportion of households holding both a farm and a non farm business is higher in rural areas, underlining the reliance of rural households on self-employment, especially after the crisis. Those businesses come in various sizes from very small to larger ones. The median business production value represents less than the annual national minimum wage. Figures show that at least 75% of farm businesses produce less than the annual minimum wage, with non farm businesses being more numerous to produce the minimum wage. However, this is only one part of the story, as production is not the only ''output'' or effect of the business. We show that the survival rate of those businesses ranks between 70 and 82% after the 1997 crisis, which contrasts with the 67% survival rate for the formal industrial sector (Ter Wengel & Rodriguez, 2006). Micro Family Owned Businesses might be relatively small in terms of production, they also provide stability in times of crisis. For those businesses that provide business assets figures, we show that capital productivity is fairly high, with rates that are ten times higher for non farm businesses. Results show that households running a business have larger family assets, and households are better off in urban areas. We run a panel logit model in order to test the effect of human and social capital on the existence of businesses among households. We find that non farm businesses are more likely to appear in households with higher human and social capital situated in urban areas. Farm businesses are more likely to appear in lower human capital and rural contexts, while still being supported by community participation. The estimation of our panel data model confirm that households are more likely to have higher family assets if situated in urban area, the higher the education level, the larger the assets, and running a business increase the likelihood of having larger assets. This is especially true for non farm businesses that have a clearly larger and more significant effect on assets than farm businesses. Finally, social capital in the form of community participation also has a positive effect on assets. Those results confirm the existence of a strong entrepreneurship culture among Indonesian households. Investigating survival rates also shows that those businesses are quite stable, even in the face of a violent crisis such as the 1997 one, and as a result, can provide a safety net. Finally, considering household assets - the returns of business to the household, rather than profit or productivity - the returns of business to itself, shows that households running a business are better off. While we demonstrate that uman and social capital are key to business existence, survival and performance, those results open avenues for further research regarding the factors that could hamper growth of those businesses in terms of output and employment.

Forecasting time-varying value-at-risk

In this thesis we are interested in financial risk and the instrument we want to use is Value-at-Risk (VaR). VaR is the maximum loss over a given period of time at a given confidence level. Many definitions of VaR exist and some will be introduced throughout this thesis. There two main ways to measure risk and VaR: through volatility and through percentiles. Large volatility in financial returns implies greater probability of large losses, but also larger probability of large profits. Percentiles describe tail behaviour. The estimation of VaR is a complex task. It is important to know the main characteristics of financial data to choose the best model. The existing literature is very wide, maybe controversial, but helpful in drawing a picture of the problem. It is commonly recognised that financial data are characterised by heavy tails, time-varying volatility, asymmetric response to bad and good news, and skewness. Ignoring any of these features can lead to underestimating VaR with a possible ultimate consequence being the default of the protagonist (firm, bank or investor). In recent years, skewness has attracted special attention. An open problem is the detection and modelling of time-varying skewness. Is skewness constant or there is some significant variability which in turn can affect the estimation of VaR? This thesis aims to answer this question and to open the way to a new approach to model simultaneously time-varying volatility (conditional variance) and skewness. The new tools are modifications of the Generalised Lambda Distributions (GLDs). They are four-parameter distributions, which allow the first four moments to be modelled nearly independently: in particular we are interested in what we will call para-moments, i.e., mean, variance, skewness and kurtosis. The GLDs will be used in two different ways. Firstly, semi-parametrically, we consider a moving window to estimate the parameters and calculate the percentiles of the GLDs. Secondly, parametrically, we attempt to extend the GLDs to include time-varying dependence in the parameters. We used the local linear regression to estimate semi-parametrically conditional mean and conditional variance. The method is not efficient enough to capture all the dependence structure in the three indices —ASX 200, S&P 500 and FT 30—, however it provides an idea of the DGP underlying the process and helps choosing a good technique to model the data. We find that GLDs suggest that moments up to the fourth order do not always exist, there existence appears to vary over time. This is a very important finding, considering that past papers (see for example Bali et al., 2008; Hashmi and Tay, 2007; Lanne and Pentti, 2007) modelled time-varying skewness, implicitly assuming the existence of the third moment. However, the GLDs suggest that mean, variance, skewness and in general the conditional distribution vary over time, as already suggested by the existing literature. The GLDs give good results in estimating VaR on three real indices, ASX 200, S&P 500 and FT 30, with results very similar to the results provided by historical simulation.