Development of an integrative approach for the characterization of ecological risk on marine transition ecosystems: the Sado Estuary as a case study

Estuaries and other transitional waters are complex ecosystems critically important as nursery and shelter areas for organisms. Also, humans depend on estuaries for multiple socio-economical activities such as urbanism, tourism, heavy industry, (taking advantage of shipping), fisheries and aquaculture, the development of which led to strong historical pressures, with emphasis on pollution. The degradation of estuarine environmental quality implies ecologic, economic and social prejudice, hence the importance of evaluating environmental quality through the identification of stressors and impacts. The Sado Estuary (SW Portugal) holds the characteristics of industrialized estuaries, which results in multiple adverse impacts. Still, it has recently been considered moderately contaminated. In fact, many studies were conducted in the past few years, albeit scattered due to the absence of true biomonitoring programmes. As such, there is a need to integrate the information, in order to obtain a holistic perspective of the area able to assist management and decision-making. As such, a geographical information system (GIS) was created based on sediment contamination and biomarker data collected from a decade-long time-series of publications. Four impacted and a reference areas were identified, characterized by distinct sediment contamination patterns related to different hot spots and diffuse sources of toxicants. The potential risk of sediment-bound toxicants was determined by contrasting the levels of pollutants with available sediment quality guidelines, followed by their integration through the Sediment Quality guideline Quotient (SQG-Q). The SQG-Q estimates per toxicant or class was then subjected to georreferencing and statistical analyses between the five distinct areas and seasons. Biomarker responses were integrated through the Biomarkers Consistency Indice and georreferenced as well through GIS. Overall, in spite of the multiple biological traits surveyed, the biomarker data (from several organisms) are accordant with sediment contamination. The most impacted areas were the shipyard area and adjacent industrial belt, followed by urban and agricultural grounds. It is evident that the estuary, although globally moderately impacted, is very heterogeneous and affected by a cocktail of contaminants, especially metals and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon. Although elements (like copper, zinc and even arsenic) may originate from the geology of the hydrographic basin of the Sado River, the majority of the remaining contaminants results from human activities. The present work revealed that the estuary should be divided into distinct biogeographic units, in order to implement effective measures to safeguard environmental quality.

Application of geographic information system and modelling in health impact assessment for urban road mobility in Vietnam

Transport is an essential sector in modern societies. It connects economic sectors and industries. Next to its contribution to economic development and social interconnection, it also causes adverse impacts on the environment and results in health hazards. Transport is a major source of ground air pollution, especially in urban areas, and therefore contributing to the health problems, such as cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, cancer, and physical injuries. This thesis presents the results of a health risk assessment that quantifies the mortality and the diseases associated with particulate matter pollution resulting from urban road transport in Hai Phong City, Vietnam. The focus is on the integration of modelling and GIS approaches in the exposure analysis to increase the accuracy of the assessment and to produce timely and consistent assessment results. The modelling was done to estimate traffic conditions and concentrations of particulate matters based on geo-references data. A simplified health risk assessment was also done for Ha Noi based on monitoring data that allows a comparison of the results between the two cases. The results of the case studies show that health risk assessment based on modelling data can provide a much more detail results and allows assessing health impacts of different mobility development options at micro level. The use of modeling and GIS as a common platform for the integration of different assessments (environmental, health, socio-economic, etc.) provides various strengths, especially in capitalising on the available data stored in different units and forms and allows handling large amount of data. The use of models and GIS in a health risk assessment, from a decision making point of view, can reduce the processing/waiting time while providing a view at different scales: from micro scale (sections of a city) to a macro scale. It also helps visualising the links between air quality and health outcomes which is useful discussing different development options. However, a number of improvements can be made to further advance the integration. An improved integration programme of the data will facilitate the application of integrated models in policy-making. Data on mobility survey, environmental monitoring and measuring must be standardised and legalised. Various traffic models, together with emission and dispersion models, should be tested and more attention should be given to their uncertainty and sensitivity

Enhancement of an implemented rating model and impact on existing risk management processes: A hands-on approach from financial supplier risk management within the automotive industry

The purpose of this paper is to conduct a methodical drawback analysis of a financial supplier risk management approach which is currently implemented in the automotive industry. Based on identified methodical flaws, the risk assessment model is further developed by introducing a malus system which incorporates hidden risks into the model and by revising the derivation of the most central risk measure in the current model. Both methodical changes lead to significant enhancements in terms of risk assessment accuracy, supplier identification and workload efficiency.

Assessing fraud risk of selecção, contratação e manutenção de fornecedores process of Sonae Investimentos

The present Work Project (WP) is the result of Sonae’s concern with fraud risk, seeking to implement a method that formally describes and evaluates it in its various forms. In a context of limited human, capital, time and tools’ resources, the Internal Audit (IA) department of the company developed a framework to raise the awareness of top management and identify which processes of its value chain present a higher level of exposure to fraud, with the purpose of redirecting attention to those and prioritizing the creation of new mechanisms to monitor its KPIs’ dynamics.

Defining risk acceptance criteria in occupational settings: A case study in the furniture industrial sector

The use of appropriate acceptance criteria in the risk assessment process for occupational accidents is an important issue but often overlooked in the literature, particularly when new risk assessment methods are proposed and discussed. In most cases, there is no information on how or by whom they were defined, or even how companies can adapt them to their own circumstances. Bearing this in mind, this study analysed the problem of the definition of risk acceptance criteria for occupational settings, defining the quantitative acceptance criteria for the specific case study of the Portuguese furniture industrial sector. The key steps to be considered in formulating acceptance criteria were analysed in the literature review. By applying the identified steps, the acceptance criteria for the furniture industrial sector were then defined. The Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) for the injury statistics of the industrial sector was identified as the maximum tolerable risk level. The acceptable threshold was defined by adjusting the CDF to the Occupational, Safety & Health (OSH) practitioners’ risk acceptance judgement. Adjustments of acceptance criteria to the companies’ safety cultures were exemplified by adjusting the Burr distribution parameters. An example of a risk matrix was also used to demonstrate the integration of the defined acceptance criteria into a risk metric. This work has provided substantial contributions to the issue of acceptance criteria for occupational accidents, which may be useful in overcoming the practical difficulties faced by authorities, companies and experts.

Risk acceptance in the furniture sector: Analysis of acceptance level and relevant influence factors

Risk acceptance has been broadly discussed in relation to hazardous risk activities and/or technologies. A better understanding of risk acceptance in occupational settings is also important; however, studies on this topic are scarce. It seems important to understand the level of risk that stakeholders consider sufficiently low, how stakeholders form their opinion about risk, and why they adopt a certain attitude toward risk. Accordingly, the aim of this study is to examine risk acceptance in regard to occupational accidents in furniture industries. The safety climate analysis was conducted through the application of the Safety Climate in Wood Industries questionnaire. Judgments about risk acceptance, trust, risk perception, benefit perception, emotions, and moral values were measured. Several models were tested to explain occupational risk acceptance. The results showed that the level of risk acceptance decreased as the risk level increased. High-risk and death scenarios were assessed as unacceptable. Risk perception, emotions, and trust had an important influence on risk acceptance. Safety climate was correlated with risk acceptance and other variables that influence risk acceptance. These results are important for the risk assessment process in terms of defining risk acceptance criteria and strategies to reduce risks.

Development of a model for occupational risk acceptance criteria definition in industrial settings

Doctoral Dissertation for PhD degree in Industrial and Systems Engineering

Subclinical hyperthyroidism and the risk of coronary heart disease and mortality.

BACKGROUND: Data from prospective cohort studies regarding the association between subclinical hyperthyroidism and cardiovascular outcomes are conflicting.We aimed to assess the risks of total and coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality, CHD events, and atrial fibrillation (AF) associated with endogenous subclinical hyperthyroidism among all available large prospective cohorts. METHODS: Individual data on 52 674 participants were pooled from 10 cohorts. Coronary heart disease events were analyzed in 22 437 participants from 6 cohorts with available data, and incident AF was analyzed in 8711 participants from 5 cohorts. Euthyroidism was defined as thyrotropin level between 0.45 and 4.49 mIU/L and endogenous subclinical hyperthyroidism as thyrotropin level lower than 0.45 mIU/L with normal free thyroxine levels, after excluding those receiving thyroid-altering medications. RESULTS: Of 52 674 participants, 2188 (4.2%) had subclinical hyperthyroidism. During follow-up, 8527 participants died (including 1896 from CHD), 3653 of 22 437 had CHD events, and 785 of 8711 developed AF. In age- and sex-adjusted analyses, subclinical hyperthyroidism was associated with increased total mortality (hazard ratio[HR], 1.24, 95% CI, 1.06-1.46), CHD mortality (HR,1.29; 95% CI, 1.02-1.62), CHD events (HR, 1.21; 95%CI, 0.99-1.46), and AF (HR, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.16-2.43).Risks did not differ significantly by age, sex, or preexisting cardiovascular disease and were similar after further adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors, with attributable risk of 14.5% for total mortality to 41.5% forAF in those with subclinical hyperthyroidism. Risks for CHD mortality and AF (but not other outcomes) were higher for thyrotropin level lower than 0.10 mIU/L compared with thyrotropin level between 0.10 and 0.44 mIU/L(for both, P value for trend, .03). CONCLUSION: Endogenous subclinical hyperthyroidism is associated with increased risks of total, CHD mortality, and incident AF, with highest risks of CHD mortality and AF when thyrotropin level is lower than 0.10 mIU/L.

Obesity markers and estimated 10-year fatal cardiovascular risk in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: There is an ongoing debate on which obesity marker better predicts cardiovascular disease (CVD). In this study, the relationships between obesity markers and high (>5%) 10-year risk of fatal CVD were assessed. METHODS AND RESULTS: A cross-sectional study was conducted including 3047 women and 2689 men aged 35-75years. Body fat percentage was assessed by tetrapolar bioimpedance. CVD risk was assessed using the SCORE risk function and gender- and age-specific cut points for body fat were derived. The diagnostic accuracy of each obesity marker was evaluated through receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis. In men, body fat presented a higher correlation (r=0.31) with 10-year CVD risk than waist/hip ratio (WHR, r=0.22), waist (r=0.22) or BMI (r=0.19); the corresponding values in women were 0.18, 0.15, 0.11 and 0.05, respectively (all p<0.05). In both genders, body fat showed the highest area under the ROC curve (AUC): in men, the AUC (95% confidence interval) were 76.0 (73.8-78.2), 67.3 (64.6-69.9), 65.8 (63.1-68.5) and 60.6 (57.9-63.5) for body fat, WHR, waist and BMI, respectively. In women, the corresponding values were 72.3 (69.2-75.3), 66.6 (63.1-70.2), 64.1 (60.6-67.6) and 58.8 (55.2-62.4). The use of the body fat percentage criterion enabled the capture of three times more subjects with high CVD risk than the BMI criterion, and almost twice as much as the WHR criterion. CONCLUSION: Obesity defined by body fat percentage is more related with 10-year risk of fatal CVD than obesity markers based on WHR, waist or BMI.

Incidence of second sarcomas: a cancer registry-based study.

BACKGROUND: In high-quality cancer registration systems, about one in eight incident cancers are second primary cancers. This is due to a combination of careful diagnostic ascertainment, shared genetic determinants, shared exposure to environmental factors and consequences of treatment for first cancer. METHODS: We used data derived from the Swiss population-based cancer Registries of Vaud and Neuchâtel, including 885,000 inhabitants. RESULTS: Among 107,238 (52% males) first cancers occurring between 1976 and 2010, a total of 126 second sarcomas were observed through active and passive follow-up versus 68.2 expected, corresponding to a standardized incidence ratio (SIR) of 1.85 (95 % CI 1.5-2.2). Significant excess sarcoma risks were observed after skin melanoma (SIR = 3.0), breast cancer (2.2), corpus uteri (2.7), testicular (7.5), thyroid cancer (4.2), Hodgkin lymphoma (5.7) and leukemias (4.0). For breast cancer, the SIR was 3.4 ≥5 years after sarcoma diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: The common denominator of these neoplasms is the utilization of radiotherapy in their management. Some sarcomas following breast cancer may be due to shared genetic components (i.e., in the Li-Fraumeni syndrome), as well as possibly to shared environmental factors, with sarcomas, including overweight, selected dietary and reproductive factors which are, however, too little defined for any quantitative risk assessment.

Impact of an intervention to control risk associated with patient transfer.

QUESTION UNDER STUDY: Hospitals transferring patients retain responsibility until admission to the new health care facility. We define safe transfer conditions, based on appropriate risk assessment, and evaluate the impact of this strategy as implemented at our institution. METHODS: An algorithm defining transfer categories according to destination, equipment monitoring, and medication was developed and tested prospectively over 6 months. Conformity with algorithm criteria was assessed for every transfer and transfer category. After introduction of a transfer coordination centre with transfer nurses, the algorithm was implemented and the same survey was carried out over 1 year. RESULTS: Over the whole study period, the number of transfers increased by 40%, chiefly by ambulance from the emergency department to other hospitals and private clinics. Transfers to rehabilitation centres and nursing homes were reassigned to conventional vehicles. The percentage of patients requiring equipment during transfer, such as an intravenous line, decreased from 34% to 15%, while oxygen or i.v. drug requirement remained stable. The percentage of transfers considered below theoretical safety decreased from 6% to 4%, while 20% of transfers were considered safer than necessary. A substantial number of planned transfers could be "downgraded" by mutual agreement to a lower degree of supervision, and the system was stable on a short-term basis. CONCLUSION: A coordinated transfer system based on an algorithm determining transfer categories, developed on the basis of simple but valid medical and nursing criteria, reduced unnecessary ambulance transfers and treatment during transfer, and increased adequate supervision.

Reducing the Risk: A Strategic Approach - The Report of the Task Force on Sudden Cardiac Death

The Minister for Health and Children established the Task Force on Sudden Cardiac Death (SCD) in the Autumn of 2004, with the following terms of reference:1) Define SCD and describe its incidence and underlying causes in Ireland.2) Advise on the detection and assessment of those at high risk of SCD and their relatives.3) Advise on the systematic assessment of those engaged in sports and exercise for risk of SCD.4) Advise on maximizing access to basic life support (BLS) and automated external defibrillators (AEDs) and on:- appropriate levels of training in BLS and use of AEDs, and on the maintenance of that training- priority individuals and priority groups for such training- geographic areas and functional locations of greatest need- best practice models of first responder scheme and public access defibrillation, and- integration of such training services.5) Advise on the establishment and maintenance of surveillance systems, including a registry of SCD and information systems to monitor risk assessment, and training and equipment programmes.6) Advise and make recommendations on other priority issues relevant to SCD in Ireland.7) Outline a plan for implementation and advise on monitoring the implementation of recommendations made in the Task Force’s report. In undertaking its work the Task Force was mindful of national health policy, relevant national strategies and of the recently reformed structures for health service delivery in Ireland. Read the Report (PDF, 1.66mb)

An empirical hierarchical Bayesian unification of occupational exposure assessment methods.

In occupational exposure assessment of airborne contaminants, exposure levels can either be estimated through repeated measurements of the pollutant concentration in air, expert judgment or through exposure models that use information on the conditions of exposure as input. In this report, we propose an empirical hierarchical Bayesian model to unify these approaches. Prior to any measurement, the hygienist conducts an assessment to generate prior distributions of exposure determinants. Monte-Carlo samples from these distributions feed two level-2 models: a physical, two-compartment model, and a non-parametric, neural network model trained with existing exposure data. The outputs of these two models are weighted according to the expert's assessment of their relevance to yield predictive distributions of the long-term geometric mean and geometric standard deviation of the worker's exposure profile (level-1 model). Bayesian inferences are then drawn iteratively from subsequent measurements of worker exposure. Any traditional decision strategy based on a comparison with occupational exposure limits (e.g. mean exposure, exceedance strategies) can then be applied. Data on 82 workers exposed to 18 contaminants in 14 companies were used to validate the model with cross-validation techniques. A user-friendly program running the model is available upon request.

Trends in drug consumption and risk of transmission of HIV and hepatitis C virus among injecting drug users in Switzerland, 1993-2006

As a part of the HIV behavioural surveillance system in Switzerland, repeated cross-sectional surveys were conducted in 1993, 1994, 1996, 2000 and 2006 among attenders of all low threshold facilities (LTFs) with needle exchange programmes and/or supervised drug consumption rooms for injection or inhalation in Switzerland. Data were collected in each LTF over five consecutive days, using a questionnaire that was partly completed by an interviewer and partly self administered. The questionnaire was structured around three topics: socio-demographic characteristics, drug consumption, health and risk/preventive behaviour. Analysis was restricted to attenders who had injected drugs during their lifetime (IDUs). Between 1993 and 2006, the median age of IDUs rose by 10 years. IDUs are severely marginalised and their social situation has improved little. The borrowing of used injection equipment (syringe or needle already used by other person) in the last six months decreased (16.5% in 1993, 8.9% in 2006) but stayed stable at around 10% over the past three surveys. Other risk behaviour, such as sharing spoons, cotton or water, was reported more frequently, although also showed a decreasing trend. The reported prevalence of HIV remained fairly stable at around 10% between 1993 and 2006; reported levels of hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence were high (56.4% in 2006). In conclusion, the overall decrease in the practice of injection has reduced the potential for transmission of infections. However as HCV prevalence is high this is of particular concern, as the current behaviour of IDUs indicates a potential for further spreading of the infection. Another noteworthy trend is the significant decrease in condom use in the case of paid sex.

Accident & Emergency Nursing Assessment of Deliberate Self Harm. Exploring the Impact of Introducing a Suicide Education Programme and a Suicide Intent Scale into A&E/MAU Nursing Practice: A Pilot Study

A proposal to pilot nursing assessment of self harm in Accident and Emergency Departments (A&E) was developed by key stakeholders in nurse education and suicide prevention in the South East and submitted to the National Council for the Professional Development of Nursing and Midwifery in April 2002.The proposal included the introduction of a suicide intent scale. Following an initial training programme, a suicide intent scale was utilised by nursing staff in A&E and the Medical Assessment Unit (MAU),Wexford General Hospital and evaluated over a period of nine months. Four months into the study the National Suicide Research Foundation (NSRF) was invited to collaboratively prepare a successful submission to the Health Research Board (HRB) as part of ‘Building Partnerships for a Healthier Future Research Awards 2004’. The NSRF undertook independent scientific evaluation of the outcomes of the suicide awareness programme. The study is in line with priorities determined by Reach Out, the National Strategy for Action on Suicide Prevention 2005-2014 (HSE, 2005) and the HSE-South East Suicide Prevention Programme through raising nursing staff awareness of the public health issue of suicide/deliberate self harm and by improving the efficiency and quality of nursing services offered to persons who present to acute hospitals with deliberate self harm. The study findings indicate evidence to positively support nursing assessment of DSH using a suicide intent scale in terms of assessing behavioural characteristics of individual clients and their suicide risk. Enhanced confidence levels of nursing personnel in caring for suicidal clients was demonstrated by staff who participated in an education programme related to risk assessment and specifically the use of a suicide intent scale.This resource was contributed by The National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.