994 resultados para crop yield forecast
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ABSTRACT The sunflower plant is an oilseed crop that has aroused a great interest in the Brazilian and international scenery especillay because of the possibility of using its oil for biodiesel production. The objective of this study was to evaluate productivity and yield components of Embrapa 122 sunflower according to the spatial arrangement. Treatments were arranged in 4 x 4 factorial arrangement, which are the four spacings between rows (0.30; 0.50; 0.70 and 0.90 m) and four sowing densities (30,000; 45,000; 60,000 and 75,000 plants ha-1). The experiment was carried out in a complete randomized block design with four replications. The experiments were conducted in the experimental area of the Plant Science Department in Fortaleza, State of Ceará-Brazil and on the Curu Vale Experimental Farm in Pentecoste, State of Ceará-Brazil. Productivity and the following production components were analyzed in the end of the crop cycle: harvested capitula, capitulum diameter, capitulum mass, achene mass per capitulum, mass of 100 achenes, achenes per capitulum, harvest index and oil content in the achenes. The experiments were analyzed jointly in relation to the cropping area and the data submitted to analysis of variance and quantitative factors tested by polynomial regression. The variables, spacing, density and cropping area did not interact with these variables and the spatial arrangement of the plants affected only the components. The cropping area influences the productive behavior of sunflower Embrapa 122. The spatial arrangement of the plants of sunflower of variety Embrapa 122 influences yield components but does not affect productivity.
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A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics
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A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics
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Fruit tree production is gaining an increasing importance in the central Amazon and elsewhere in the humid tropics, but very little is known about the nutrient dynamics in the soil-plant system. The present study quantified the effects of fertilization and cover cropping with a legume (Pueraria phaseoloides (Roxb.) Benth.) on soil nitrogen (N) dynamics and plant nutrition in a young guarana plantation (Paullinia cupana Kunth. (H.B. and K.) var. sorbilis (Mart.) Ducke) on a highly weathered Xanthic Ferralsol. Large subsoil nitrate (NO3-) accumulation at 0.3-3 m below the guarana plantation indicated N leaching from the topsoil. The NO3- contents to a depth of 2 m were 2.4 times greater between the trees than underneath unfertilized trees (P<0.05). The legume cover crop between the trees increased soil N availability as shown by elevated aerobic N mineralization and lower N immobilization in microbial biomass. The guarana N nutrition and yield did not benefit from the N input by biological fixation of atmospheric N2 by the legume cover (P>0.05). Even without a legume intercrop, large amounts of NO3- were found in the subsoil between unfertilized trees. Subsoil NO3- between the trees could be utilized, however, by fertilized guarana. This can be explained by a more vigorous growth of fertilized trees which had a larger nutrient demand and exploited a larger soil volume. With a legume cover crop, however, more mineral N was available at the topsoil which was leached into the subsoil and consequently accumulated at 0.3-3 m depth. Fertilizer additions of P and K were needed to increase subsoil NO3- use between trees.
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In this paper we examine the out-of-sample forecast performance of high-yield credit spreads regarding real-time and revised data on employment and industrial production in the US. We evaluate models using both a point forecast and a probability forecast exercise. Our main findings suggest the use of few factors obtained by pooling information from a number of sector-specific high-yield credit spreads. This can be justified by observing that, especially for employment, there is a gain from using a principal components model fitted to high-yield credit spreads compared to the prediction produced by benchmarks, such as an AR, and ARDL models that use either the term spread or the aggregate high-yield spread as exogenous regressor. Moreover, forecasts based on real-time data are generally comparable to forecasts based on revised data. JEL Classification: C22; C53; E32 Keywords: Credit spreads; Principal components; Forecasting; Real-time data.
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The species x location interaction was of great importance in explaining the behaviour of genetic material. The study presented here shows, for the first time, the performance, under field conditions of the new tritordeum species, compared to wheat and triticale in a wide range of Mediterranean countries (Spain, Lebanon and Tunisia). The results obtained revealed that despite the diversity of environmental conditions, the main differences in yield were due to genotypes, especially to differences between species. The multi-local study with different growth conditions revealed important information about the water availability effect on yield. In the lowest yielding environments (Tunisia rainfed), Tritordeum and triticale yields were equivalent. However under better growth conditions (Spain), tritordeum yield was shown to be lower than wheat and triticale. Interestingly, when water limitation was extended during the pre-anthesis period, differences in tritordeum versus wheat-triticale yield rate were larger than when water stress occurred during anthesis. These variations were explained by the fact that kernel weight has been found as the limiting factor for yield determination in tritordeum, and a delay in the anthesis date may have been the cause for the low kernel weight and low yield under Mediterranean drought conditions. Such differences in yield between tritordeum and wheat or triticale could be explained by the fact that tritordeum is a relatively new species and far fewer resources have been devoted to its improvement when compared to wheat and triticale. Our results suggest that breeding efforts should be directed to an earlier anthesis date and a longer grain filling period. tritordeum proved to have possibilities to be grown under drought environments as a new crop, since its performance was quite close to wheat and triticale. Besides, it has qualitative added values that may improve farmers' income per unit land.
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The successful expansion of the U.S. crop insurance program has not eliminated ad hoc disaster assistance. An alternative currently being explored by members of Congress and others in preparation of the 2007 farm bill is to simply remove the “ad hoc” part of disaster assistance programs by creating a standing program that would automatically funnel aid to hard-hit regions and crops. One form such a program could take can be found in the area yield and area revenue insurance programs currently offered by the U.S. crop insurance program. The Group Risk Plan (GRP) and Group Risk Income Protection (GRIP) programs automatically trigger payments when county yields or revenues, respectively, fall below a producer-elected coverage level. The per-acre taxpayer costs of offering GRIP in Indiana, Illinois, and Iowa for corn and soybeans through the crop insurance program are estimated. These results are used to determine the amount of area revenue coverage that could be offered to farmers as part of a standing farm bill disaster program. Approximately 55% of taxpayer support for GRIP flows to the crop insurance industry. A significant portion of this support comes in the form of net underwriting gains. The expected rate of return on money put at risk by private crop insurance companies under the current Standard Reinsurance Agreement is approximately 100%. Taking this industry support and adding in the taxpayer support for GRIP that flows to producers would fund a county target revenue program at the 93% coverage level.
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The arbuscular mycorrhizal symbiosis is formed between arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) and plant roots. The fungi provide the plant with inorganic phosphate (P). The symbiosis can result in increased plant growth. Although most global food crops naturally form this symbiosis, very few studies have shown that their practical application can lead to large-scale increases in food production. Application of AMF to crops in the tropics is potentially effective for improving yields. However, a main problem of using AMF on a large-scale is producing cheap inoculum in a clean sterile carrier and sufficiently concentrated to cheaply transport. Recently, mass-produced in vitro inoculum of the model mycorrhizal fungus Rhizophagus irregularis became available, potentially making its use viable in tropical agriculture. One of the most globally important food plants in the tropics is cassava. We evaluated the effect of in vitro mass-produced R. irregularis inoculum on the yield of cassava crops at two locations in Colombia. A significant effect of R. irregularis inoculation on yield occurred at both sites. At one site, yield increases were observed irrespective of P fertilization. At the other site, inoculation with AMF and 50% of the normally applied P gave the highest yield. Despite that AMF inoculation resulted in greater food production, economic analyses revealed that AMF inoculation did not give greater return on investment than with conventional cultivation. However, the amount of AMF inoculum used was double the recommended dose and was calculated with European, not Colombian, inoculum prices. R. irregularis can also be manipulated genetically in vitro, leading to improved plant growth. We conclude that application of in vitro R. irregularis is currently a way of increasing cassava yields, that there is a strong potential for it to be economically profitable and that there is enormous potential to improve this efficiency further in the future.
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Alfalfa is an important forage crop with high nutritive value, although highly susceptible to soil acidity. Liming is one of the most efficient and prevailing practices to correct soil acidity and improve alfalfa yield. The objective of this study was to evaluate response to liming of alfalfa grown in a greenhouse on a Typic Quartzipsamment soil. The treatments consisted of four lime rates (0, 3.8, 6.6 and 10.3 Mg ha-1) and two cuts. Alfalfa dry matter increased quadratically with increasing lime rates. In general, dry matter yield was maximized by a lime rate of 8.0 Mg ha-1. Except for the control, the dry matter nutrient contents in the treatments were adequate. The positive linear correlation between root and nodule dry matter with lime rates indicated improvement of these plant traits with decreasing soil acidity. The soil acidity indices pH, base saturation, Ca2+ concentration, Mg2+ concentration, and H + Al were relevant factors in the assessment of alfalfa yield. The magnitude of influence of these soil acidity indices on yield as determined by the coefficient of determination (R²) varied and decreased in the order: base saturation, H + Al, pH, Ca and Mg concentrations. Optimum values of selected soil chemical properties were defined for maximum shoot dry matter; these values can serve as a guideline for alfalfa liming to improve the yield of this forage on acid soils.
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The Cerrado (Brazilian Savannah) plays an important economic and financial role in the nation, since the pastures of this biome feed cattle for half of the domestic bovine meat productivity, and its agricultural fields produce a third of the country's grain. The variability and spatial dependence between the soil physical attributes and soybean yield were evaluated in a crop rotation planted on a degraded brachiaria pasture, on a dystroferric Red Latosol of an experimental farm of the State University of São Paulo (UNESP), in the 2005/2006 growing season. The linear and spatial correlations between these attributes were also studied, to determine conditions that would allow increased agricultural productivity. In the above pasture area, a grid was installed with 124 plots, spaced 10.0 x 10.0 m and 5.0 x 5.0 m apart, in a total area of 7,500 m². From the linear and spatial point of view, the high grain yield can be explained by the number of grains per plant and soil macroporosity. The high variability observed for most soil properties indicated that the crop - livestock integration system results in environmental heterogeneity of the soil.
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It is known that any kind of soil management causes changes in the soil physical characteristics and can affect agricultural yield. The purpose of this study was to evaluate soil properties of an Alfisol and soybean yield under different management systems for no-tillage annual crops, no-tillage with chiseling and no-tillage crop rotation. The 11-year experiment was initiated in the 1998/99 growing season, on 100 x 30 m plots (11 % slope). Soil samples (5 per management system) were systematically collected (0-25 cm layer) in the summer growing season, to quantify soil organic matter, bulk density, macroporosity and flocculation, as well as soybean yield. The highest values for soil bulk density and organic matter content and the lowest for macroporosity were observed in the no-till system alone, whereas in the no-till system with quarterly chiseling the values for organic matter content were lowest, and no-tillage crop rotation resulted in the highest values for organic matter and macroporosity, and the lowest for soil bulk density. The average soybean yield was highest under no-till and trimestrial chiseling or crop rotation, and lowest for no-tillage annual crops no-tillage annual crops alone.
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It is well-known nowadays that soil variability can influence crop yields. Therefore, to determine specific areas of soil management, we studied the Pearson and spatial correlations of rice grain yield with organic matter content and pH of an Oxisol (Typic Acrustox) under no- tillage, in the 2009/10 growing season, in Selvíria, State of Mato Grosso do Sul, in the Brazilian Cerrado (longitude 51º24' 21'' W, latitude 20º20' 56'' S). The upland rice cultivar IAC 202 was used as test plant. A geostatistical grid was installed for soil and plant data collection, with 120 sampling points in an area of 3.0 ha with a homogeneous slope of 0.055 m m-1. The properties rice grain yield and organic matter content, pH and potential acidity and aluminum content were analyzed in the 0-0.10 and 0.10-0.20 m soil layers. Spatially, two specific areas of agricultural land management were discriminated, differing in the value of organic matter and rice grain yield, respectively with fertilization at variable rates in the second zone, a substantial increase in agricultural productivity can be obtained. The organic matter content was confirmed as a good indicator of soil quality, when spatially correlated with rice grain yield.
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The interest in crambe (Crambe abyssinica ) cultivation in Brazil is on the rise, whereas information on the nutrient requirements for this crop is scarce. The objective of this work was to evaluate the effect of nitrogen-phosphorus-potassium (N-P2O5-K2O formula 8:28:16) fertilization (0, 150, and 300 kg ha-1) on crambe shoot biomass production, grain and oil yields, and nutrient extraction and exportation in the second growing season after soybean. The experiment with a Haplorthox (Dystroferric Red Latosol) was carried out for two years in Botucatu, São Paulo State, Brazil. A randomized complete block design with eight replications was used. Fertilization with NPK at sowing increased the shoot biomass production, grain yield, grain oil content, as well as nutrient extraction and exportation at harvest. In the fertilized treatments, the average amounts of nutrients extracted per hectare were 91 kg K, 71 kg N, 52 kg Ca, 9.4 kg P, 9.4 kg Mg, 7.9 kg S, 2,348 g Fe, 289 g Zn, 135 g Mn, and 18.2 g Cu; while the average values of nutrient exportation per hectare were 54 kg N, 20 kg K, 12.3 kg Ca, 10 kg P, 6.6 kg S, 3.2 kg Mg, 365 g Zn, 60 g Fe, 50 g Mn, and 7.3 g Cu, with NPK fertilizer application.
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The use of cover crops in vineyards is a conservation practice with the purpose of reducing soil erosion and improving the soil physical quality. The objective of this study was to evaluate cover crop species and management systems on soil physical properties and grape yield. The experiment was carried out in Bento Gonçalves, RS, Southern Brazil, on a Haplic Cambisol, in a vineyard established in 1989, using White and Rose Niagara grape (Vitis labrusca L.) in a horizontal, overhead trellis system. The treatments were established in 2002, consisting of three cover crops: spontaneous species (SS), black oat (Avena strigosa Schreb) (BO), and a mixture of white clover (Trifolium repens L.), red clover (Trifolium pratense L.) and annual rye-grass (Lolium multiflorum L.) (MC). Two management systems were applied: desiccation with herbicide (D) and mechanical mowing (M). Soil under a native forest (NF) area was collected as a reference. The experimental design consisted of completely randomized blocks, with three replications. The soil physical properties in the vine rows were not influenced by cover crops and were similar to the native forest, with good quality of the soil structure. In the inter-rows, however, there was a reduction in biopores, macroporosity, total porosity and an increase in soil density, related to the compaction of the surface soil layer. The M system increased soil aggregate stability compared to the D system. The treatments affected grapevine yield only in years with excess or irregular rainfall.
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Animal manure is applied to the soil as a nutrient source, especially of nitrogen, to plants. However, manure application rates can be reduced with the use of N fertilizer in topdressing. The aim of this study was to evaluate crop responses to different application rates of animal manure sources, used alone and supplemented with mineral N topdressing, in a no-tillage system. The study was carried out from 2005 to 2008 on a Hapludalf soil. The treatments consisted of rates of 10, 20 and 30 m³ ha-1 of pig slurry (PS), and of 1 and 2 t ha-1 of turkey manure (TM), applied alone and supplemented with topdressed N fertilizer (TNF), as well as two controls, mineral fertilization (NPK) and one control without fertilizer application. Grain yield in common bean and maize, and dry matter yield and nutrient accumulation in common bean, maize and black oat crops were evaluated. Nitrogen application in topdressing in maize and common bean, especially when PS was used at rates of 20 and 30 m³ ha-1, and TM, at 2 t ha-1, proved effective in increasing the crop grain yields, showing the viability of the combined use of organic and industrialized mineral sources. Nitrogen accumulation in maize and common bean tissues was the indicator most strongly related to grain yield, in contrast with the apparent nutrient recovery, which was not related to the N, P and K quantities applied in the organic sources. No clear residual effect of N topdressing of maize and common bean was observed on the dry matter yield of black oat grown in succession to the main crops with PS and TM applications.