Early predictors of phonological and morphological awareness and the link with reading:evidence from children with different patterns of early deficit

This study examines the contribution of early phonological processing (PP) and language skills on later phonological awareness (PA) and morphological awareness (MA), as well as the links among PA, MA, and reading. Children 4-6 years of age with poor PP at the start of school showed weaker PA and MA 3 years later (age 7-9), regardless of their language skills. PA and phonological and morphological strategies predict reading accuracy, whereas MA predicts reading comprehension. Our findings suggest that children with poor early PP are more at risk of developing deficits in MA and PA than children with poor language. They also suggest that there is a direct link between PA and reading accuracy and between MA and reading comprehension that cannot be accounted for by strategy use at the word level.

Credibility theory-based available transfer capability assessment

Since the development of large scale power grid interconnections and power markets, research on available transfer capability (ATC) has attracted great attention. The challenges for accurate assessment of ATC originate from the numerous uncertainties in electricity generation, transmission, distribution and utilization sectors. Power system uncertainties can be mainly described as two types: randomness and fuzziness. However, the traditional transmission reliability margin (TRM) approach only considers randomness. Based on credibility theory, this paper firstly built models of generators, transmission lines and loads according to their features of both randomness and fuzziness. Then a random fuzzy simulation is applied, along with a novel method proposed for ATC assessment, in which both randomness and fuzziness are considered. The bootstrap method and multi-core parallel computing technique are introduced to enhance the processing speed. By implementing simulation for the IEEE-30-bus system and a real-life system located in Northwest China, the viability of the models and the proposed method is verified.

A költségvetési hiány politikai gazdaságtana (The political economy of budgetary deficit)

A fejlett ipari országokra a hetvenes évektől mind inkább jellemző tartós költségvetési hiányt sem a keynesi, sem pedig a neoklasszikus elmélet nem tudta kielégítően magyarázni. Az új politikai gazdaságtan azonban, úgy tűnik, sikerrel tárta fel nemcsak a tartós hiány és a növekvő eladósodottság okait, hanem a fiskális politikai teljesítményben országok között és időben mutatkozó jelentős eltérések forrásait is. A siker elsősorban annak köszönhető, hogy az új politikai gazdaságtan a költségvetési politika alakításának politikai és intézményi korlátai felé fordult, azzal a nem titkolt szándékkal, hogy kiterjessze a főáramú közgazdaságtan határait, és beépítse modelljeibe a gazdaságpolitikai döntéshozatal folyamatát. Tanulmányunkban négy átfogó magyarázatot tekintünk át - ezek: 1. az adósságállomány stratégiai használata, 2. a stabilizáció elodázása, 3. a politikai és választási rendszerek különbözősége és 4. a gyenge vagy széttöredezett végrehajtói hatalom -, azzal az egyértelmű igénnyel, hogy a szokásos pozitív elemzést normatív vizsgálódással egészítsük ki. / === / Neither Keynesian nor Neoclassical theory managed to explain adequately the increasingly typical state of chronic budgetary deficit found in developed industrial countries since the 1970s. But the new political economy seems to have revealed the causes of the chronic deficit and mounting indebtedness and of the reasons for the marked differences in fiscal-policy performance between countries and periods. The success can be ascribed primarily to the fact that the new political economy turned to the political and institutional constraints on the formation of budgetary policy, with the unconcealed aim of broadening the bounds of mainstream economics and building the policy-making process into it. The study examines four comprehensive explanations: 1. strategic use of debt stock, 2. postponement of stabilization, 3. differences of political and electoral systems, and 4. weak or fragmented executive power, with the clear intention of complementing the customary positive analysis with a normative examination.

Rules-based economic governance in the European Union: A reappraisal of national fiscal rules.

The economic and financial crisis of 2007/2009 has posed unexpected challenges on both the global and the regional level. Besides the US, the EU has been the most severely hit by the current economic crisis. The financial and banking crisis on the one hand and the sovereign debt crisis on the other hand have clearly shown that without a bold, constructive and systematic change of the economic governance structure of the Union, not just the sustainability of the monetary zone but also the viability of the whole European integration process can be seriously undermined. The current crisis is, however, only a symptom, which made all those contradictions overt that were already heavily embedded in the system. Right from the very beginning, the deficit and the debt rules of the Maastricht Treaty and the Stability and Growth Pact have proved to be controversial cornerstones in the fiscal governance framework of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). Yet, member states of the EU (both within and outside of the EMU) have shown an immense interest in adopting numerical constraints on the domestic level without hesitation. The main argument for the introduction of national fiscal rules was mostly to strengthen the accountability and credibility of national fiscal policy-making. The paper, however, claims that a relatively large portion of national rules were adopted only after the start of deceleration of the debt-to-GDP ratios. Accordingly, national rules were hardly the sole triggering factors of maintaining fiscal discipline; rather, they served as the key elements of a comprehensive reform package of public budgeting. It can be safely argued, therefore, that countries decide to adopt fiscal rules because they want to explicitly signal their strong commitment to fiscal discipline. In other words, it is not fiscal rules per se what matter in delivering fiscal stability but a strong political commitment.

How source credibility and message claims interact in determining advertising effectiveness

Credible endorsers are often used in advertisements. However, there is conflicting evidence on the role source credibility plays in persuasion. Early research found that source credibility affects persuasion when subjects pay attention to the communication. Other research indicates that a credible source enhances persuasion when people do not scrutinize the message claims carefully and thoroughly. This effect is opposite to what was indicated by early research. More recent research indicates that source credibility may affect persuasion when people scrutinize the message claims, but limits this effect to advertisements with certain type of claims (i.e., ambiguous or extreme claims). This dissertation proposes that source credibility might play a broader role during persuasion than suggested by the empirical literature. Source credibility may affect persuasion, at low levels of involvement, by serving as a peripheral cue. It may also affect persuasion, at high involvement, by serving as an argument or biasing elaboration. ^ Each of these possibilities was explored in an experiment using a 3 (source credibility) x 2 (type of claim) x 2 (levels of involvement) full factorial design. The sample consisted of 180 undergraduate students from a major southeastern University. ^ Results indicated that, at high levels of involvement, the credibility of the source affected persuasion. This effect was due to source credibility acting as an argument within the advertisement. This study did not find that source credibility affected persuasion by biasing elaboration, at high involvement, or by serving as a peripheral cue, at low involvement. ^

Attributes of identity document credibility: A synthesis of expert knowledge

In broad terms — including a thief's use of existing credit card, bank, or other accounts — the number of identity fraud victims in the United States ranges 9-10 million per year, or roughly 4% of the US adult population. The average annual theft per stolen identity was estimated at $6,383 in 2006, up approximately 22% from $5,248 in 2003; an increase in estimated total theft from $53.2 billion in 2003 to $56.6 billion in 2006. About three million Americans each year fall victim to the worst kind of identity fraud: new account fraud. Names, Social Security numbers, dates of birth, and other data are acquired fraudulently from the issuing organization, or from the victim then these data are used to create fraudulent identity documents. In turn, these are presented to other organizations as evidence of identity, used to open new lines of credit, secure loans, “flip” property, or otherwise turn a profit in a victim's name. This is much more time consuming — and typically more costly — to repair than fraudulent use of existing accounts. ^ This research borrows from well-established theoretical backgrounds, in an effort to answer the question – what is it that makes identity documents credible? Most importantly, identification of the components of credibility draws upon personal construct psychology, the underpinning for the repertory grid technique, a form of structured interviewing that arrives at a description of the interviewee’s constructs on a given topic, such as credibility of identity documents. This represents substantial contribution to theory, being the first research to use the repertory grid technique to elicit from experts, their mental constructs used to evaluate credibility of different types of identity documents reviewed in the course of opening new accounts. The research identified twenty-one characteristics, different ones of which are present on different types of identity documents. Expert evaluations of these documents in different scenarios suggest that visual characteristics are most important for a physical document, while authenticated personal data are most important for a digital document. ^

From Bilingualism to Interlinguistics: The Case Against the Deficit Model of Language Acquisition

The article argues against an ahistorical deficit model of Spanish/English bilingualism in educational practice based on interlinguistic research. The bidirectional facilitative effects of Hispanic bilingualism allow Spanish-speaking minorities to exploit their language background while learning academic English and integrating their language and culture into the American mainstream.

Theoretical Analysis of "Academic Credibility and the Hospitality Curriculum" : The Image Problem

Social issues are assessed from different perspectives. The purpose here is to evaluate one short article in terms of interpretive social theory and then briefly assess it in terms of functionalism, conflic theory and critical theory.

Why Most Biomedical Findings Echoed by Newspapers Turn Out to be False: The Case of Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder

Context: Because positive biomedical observations are more often published than those reporting no effect, initial observations are often refuted or attenuated by subsequent studies. Objective: To determine whether newspapers preferentially report on initial findings and whether they also report on subsequent studies. Methods: We focused on attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Using Factiva and PubMed databases, we identified 47 scientific publications on ADHD published in the 1990s and soon echoed by 347 newspapers articles. We selected the ten most echoed publications and collected all their relevant subsequent studies until 2011. We checked whether findings reported in each ‘‘top 10’’ publication were consistent with previous and subsequent observations. We also compared the newspaper coverage of the ‘‘top 10’’ publications to that of their related scientific studies. Results: Seven of the ‘‘top 10’’ publications were initial studies and the conclusions in six of them were either refuted or strongly attenuated subsequently. The seventh was not confirmed or refuted, but its main conclusion appears unlikely. Among the three ‘‘top 10’’ that were not initial studies, two were confirmed subsequently and the third was attenuated. The newspaper coverage of the ‘‘top 10’’ publications (223 articles) was much larger than that of the 67 related studies (57 articles). Moreover, only one of the latter newspaper articles reported that the corresponding ‘‘top 10’’ finding had been attenuated. The average impact factor of the scientific journals publishing studies echoed by newspapers (17.1 n = 56) was higher (p,0.0001) than that corresponding to related publications that were not echoed (6.4 n = 56). Conclusion: Because newspapers preferentially echo initial ADHD findings appearing in prominent journals, they report on uncertain findings that are often refuted or attenuated by subsequent studies. If this media reporting bias generalizes to health sciences, it represents a major cause of distortion in health science communication.

Attributes of Identity Document Credibility: A Synthesis of Expert Knowledge

In broad terms — including a thief's use of existing credit card, bank, or other accounts — the number of identity fraud victims in the United States ranges 9-10 million per year, or roughly 4% of the US adult population. The average annual theft per stolen identity was estimated at $6,383 in 2006, up approximately 22% from $5,248 in 2003; an increase in estimated total theft from $53.2 billion in 2003 to $56.6 billion in 2006. About three million Americans each year fall victim to the worst kind of identity fraud: new account fraud. Names, Social Security numbers, dates of birth, and other data are acquired fraudulently from the issuing organization, or from the victim then these data are used to create fraudulent identity documents. In turn, these are presented to other organizations as evidence of identity, used to open new lines of credit, secure loans, “flip” property, or otherwise turn a profit in a victim's name. This is much more time consuming — and typically more costly — to repair than fraudulent use of existing accounts. This research borrows from well-established theoretical backgrounds, in an effort to answer the question – what is it that makes identity documents credible? Most importantly, identification of the components of credibility draws upon personal construct psychology, the underpinning for the repertory grid technique, a form of structured interviewing that arrives at a description of the interviewee’s constructs on a given topic, such as credibility of identity documents. This represents substantial contribution to theory, being the first research to use the repertory grid technique to elicit from experts, their mental constructs used to evaluate credibility of different types of identity documents reviewed in the course of opening new accounts. The research identified twenty-one characteristics, different ones of which are present on different types of identity documents. Expert evaluations of these documents in different scenarios suggest that visual characteristics are most important for a physical document, while authenticated personal data are most important for a digital document.

The credibility of simulation-based environments : user judgments of verisimilitude

Mémoire numérisé par la Direction des bibliothèques de l'Université de Montréal.

Management of adult attention deficit hyperactivity disorder in UK primary care: a survey of general practitioners

Background: Compared to existing literature on childhood attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), little published adult data are available, particularly outside of the United States. Using General Practitioner (GP) questionnaires from the United Kingdom, this study aimed to examine a number of issues related to ADHD in adults, across three cohorts of patients, adults who received ADHD drug treatment in childhood/adolescence but stopped prior to adulthood; adults who received ADHD drug treatment in childhood/adolescence and continued treatment into adulthood and adults who started ADHD drug treatment in adulthood.Methods: Patients with a diagnosis of ADHD and prescribed methylphenidate, dexamfetamine or atomoxetine were identified using data from The Health Improvement Network (THIN). Dates when these drugs started and stopped were used to classify patients into the three cohorts. From each cohort, 50 patients were randomly selected and questionnaires were sent via THIN to their GPs.GPs returned completed questionnaires to THIN who forwarded anonymised copies to the researchers. Datasets were analysed using descriptive statistics.Results: Overall response rate was 89% (133/150). GPs stated that in 19 cases, the patient did not meet the criteria of that group; the number of valid questionnaires returned was 114 (76%). The following broad trends were observed: 1) GPs were not aware of the reason for treatment cessation in 43% of cases, 2) patient choice was the most common reason for discontinuation (56%), 3) 7% of patients who stopped pharmacological treatment subsequently reported experiencing ADHD symptoms, 4) 58% of patients who started pharmacological treatment for ADHD in adulthood received pharmacological treatment for other mental health conditions prior to the ADHD being diagnosed.Conclusion: This study presents some key findings relating to ADHD; GPs were often not aware of the reason for patients stopping ADHD treatment in childhood or adolescence. Patient choice was identified as the most common reason for treatment cessation. For patients who started pharmacological treatment in adulthood, many patients received pharmacological treatment for comorbidities before a diagnosis of ADHD was made.

The credibility of simulation-based environments : user judgments of verisimilitude

Mémoire numérisé par la Direction des bibliothèques de l'Université de Montréal.

A Gap with a Deficit of Large Grains in the Protoplanetary Disk around TW Hya

We report 3 au resolution imaging observations of the protoplanetary disk aroundTW Hya at 145 and 233 GHz with the Atacama Large Millimeter/Submillimeter Array.Our observations revealed two deep gaps (~25-50 %) at 22 and 37 au and shallowergaps (a few %) at 6, 28, and 44 au, as recently reported by Andrews et al. (2016). Thecentral hole with a radius of  3 au was also marginally resolved. The most remarkablefinding is that the spectral index α(R) between bands 4 and 6 peaks at the 22 au gap.The derived power-law index of the dust opacity β(R) is  ~1.7 at the 22 au gap anddecreases toward the disk center to ~0. The most prominent gap at 22 au could becaused by the gravitational interaction between the disk and an unseen planet with amass of ≲1.5 MNeptune although other origins may be possible. The planet-induced gap is supported by the fact that β(R) is enhanced at the 22 au gap, indicating a deficitof mm-sized grains within the gap due to dust filtration by a planet.