An aggregated fridge-freezer peak shaving and valley filling control strategy for enhanced grid operations

The need for fast response demand side participation (DSP) has never been greater due to increased wind power penetration. White domestic goods suppliers are currently developing a `smart' chip for a range of domestic appliances (e.g. refrigeration units, tumble dryers and storage heaters) to support the home as a DSP unit in future power systems. This paper presents an aggregated population-based model of a single compressor fridge-freezer. Two scenarios (i.e. energy efficiency class and size) for valley filling and peak shaving are examined to quantify and value DSP savings in 2020. The analysis shows potential peak reductions of 40 MW to 55 MW are achievable in the Single wholesale Electricity Market of Ireland (i.e. the test system), and valley demand increases of up to 30 MW. The study also shows the importance of the control strategy start time and the staggering of the devices to obtain the desired filling or shaving effect.

Quantifying consumer portion control practices. A cross-sectional study

The use of portion control practices has rarely been quantified. The present study aimed to: (1) explore which portion control practices are actually used by the general population and their association with cognitive restraint, demographic background and general health interest (GHI), and (2) examine how the usage of portion control practices predicts the estimated consumption of an energy dense food (i.e. pizza). Twenty-two portion control practices were rated in terms of their frequency of use from 'never' to 'very often' by a representative sample of 1012 consumers from the island of Ireland. Three factors were extracted and named: measurement-strategy scale, eating-strategy scale, and purchasing-strategy scale. The eating-strategy scale score was the highest, while the measurement-strategy scale carried the lowest frequency score. For each strategy scale score, the strongest predictor was GHI, followed by gender. Having higher GHI and being female were independently associated with more frequent portion control. Both the eating-strategy scale score and the purchasing-strategy scale score were negatively associated with pizza portion size consumption estimates. In conclusion, while this study demonstrates that the reported use of portion control practices is low, the findings provide preliminary evidence for their validity. Further studies are needed to explore how portion control practices are used in different kinds of portion size decisions and what their contribution is to the intake of food over an extended period of time.

Free-roaming dogs control activities in one Italian province (2000-2013): Is the implemented approach effective?

In Italy, standards for the management of free-roaming dogs (FRDs) are defined by regional norms, generating a high variability of approaches around the country. Despite efforts carried out by the competent authorities, FRDs are still a reality impacting upon animal health and welfare and public costs. A similar scenario can be found in many other Mediterranean and Balkan counties. Here we present 14 years of data (2000–2013) retrieved from the admission dog registry of a public shelter (PS) responsible for the collection of stray dogs from one Italian province. The aim of this retrospective study was to describe the local FRD population, identifying its source and to evaluate the effectiveness of the actions implemented by the local authorities. In the investigated period, 7,475 dogs were admitted to the PS. Despite the intense sterilisation plan (mean 381.7 sterilisations per year), the overall number of dogs entering PS did not decrease consistently across the years. Results highlighted a lack of responsibility of owners by failing to sterilise and identify their dogs and allowing intact animals to roam free, therefore producing uncontrolled and unwanted litters. The current dog population management strategy, based on both sheltering and capture-neuter-release programmes, is insufficient to tackle the straying phenomenon. Educational and sterilisation programmes should be an integral part of a successfully implemented FRD control plan. Our results provide further insight on free-roaming dog population dynamics and control systems, and may have important implications for many other local contexts across Europe trying to overcome the straying phenomenon.

Pet population management and public health:A web service based tool for the improvement of dog traceability

The risks associated with zoonotic infections transmitted by companion animals are a serious public health concern: the control of zoonoses incidence in domestic dogs, both owned and stray, is hence important to protect human health. Integrated dog population management (DPM) programs, based on the availability of information systems providing reliable data on the structure and composition of the existing dog population in a given area, are fundamental for making realistic plans for any disease surveillance and action system. Traceability systems, based on the compulsory electronic identification of dogs and their registration in a computerised database, are one of the most effective ways to ensure the usefulness of DPM programs. Even if this approach provides many advantages, several areas of improvement have emerged in countries where it has been applied. In Italy, every region hosts its own dog register but these are not compatible with one another. This paper shows the advantages of a web-based-application to improve data management of dog regional registers. The approach used for building this system was inspired by farm animal traceability schemes and it relies on a network of services that allows multi-channel access by different devices and data exchange via the web with other existing applications, without changing the pre-existing platforms. Today the system manages a database for over 300,000 dogs registered in three different Italian regions. By integrating multiple Web Services, this approach could be the solution to gather data at national and international levels at reasonable cost and creating a traceability system on a large scale and across borders that can be used for disease surveillance and development of population management plans. © 2012 Elsevier B.V.

Validation of night blindness reports among children and women in a vitamin A deficient population in rural Tanzania.

OBJECTIVE: This study validates different definitions of reported night blindness (XN) in a vitamin A deficient African population with no local term for XN. DESIGN: Case-control study with follow-up after treatment. SETTING: Eight primary schools and health centres in rural Tanzania. SUBJECTS: A total of 1214 participants were screened for reported XN and other eye signs of xerophthalmia: 461 children aged 24-71 months, 562 primary school-age children and 191 pregnant or breast-feeding women. All 152 cases of reported XN were selected for the validation study and group matched with 321 controls who did not complain of XN. XN reports were validated against serum retinol concentrations and pupillary dark adaptation measurements in cases and controls. INTERVENTION: All children and women who reported XN or had other signs of active xerophthalmia were treated with vitamin A and followed up 3-4 weeks later. Half of the untreated control group who had their serum retinol examined in the baseline examination were also followed up. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of reported XN was 12.5%. At baseline, mean pupillary threshold (-1.52 vs -1.55 log cd/m(2), P=0.501) and median serum retinol concentrations (0.95 vs 0.93 micromol/l, P=0.734) were not significantly different in cases and controls either overall or in each population group. More restricted case definitions reduced the prevalence of reported XN to 5.5% (P<0.001), but there was still no significant difference between cases and controls although the results were in the expected direction. After treatment, the median serum retinol concentration improved significantly only in the most deficient group, the young children. Dark adaptation improved in all the subgroups but the difference was only significant for young children and primary school-age children when the restricted case definitions were used. CONCLUSIONS: XN reports are a poor indicator of vitamin A deficiency in this population. SPONSORSHIP: Task Force Sight and Life, Basel, Switzerland.

Familial aggregation of hyperopia in an elderly population of siblings in Salisbury, Maryland.

PURPOSE: To determine whether hyperopia aggregates in families in an older mixed-race population. DESIGN: Cross-sectional familial aggregation study using sibships. METHODS: We recruited 759 subjects (mean age, 73.4 years) in 241 families through the population-based Salisbury Eye Evaluation study. Subjects underwent noncycloplegic refraction if best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) was <or=20/40, had lensometry to measure their currently worn spectacles if BCVA was >20/40 with spectacles, or were considered to be plano (refraction of zero) if the BCVA was >20/40 without spectacles. Preoperative refraction from medical records was used for bilaterally pseudophakic subjects. RESULTS: Utilizing hyperopia cutoffs from 1.00 to 2.50 diopters, age-, race-, and gender-adjusted odds ratios for hyperopia with an affected sibling ranged from 2.72 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.84-4.01) to 4.87 (95% CI, 2.54-9.30). The odds of hyperopia increased with age until 75 years, after which they remained relatively constant. Black men were significantly less likely to be hyperopic than white men, white women, or black women. CONCLUSIONS: Hyperopia appears to be under strong genetic control in this older population.

Clopidogrel use and cancer-specific mortality: a population-based cohort study of colorectal, breast and prostate cancer patients

PURPOSE: Concerns were raised about the safety of antiplatelet thienopyridine derivatives after a randomized control trial reported increased risks of cancer and cancer deaths in prasugrel users. We investigate whether clopidogrel, a widely used thienopyridine derivative, was associated with increased risk of cancer-specific or all-cause mortality in cancer patients.

METHODS: Colorectal, breast and prostate cancer patients, newly diagnosed from 1998 to 2009, were identified from the National Cancer Data Repository. Cohorts were linked to the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink, providing prescription records, and to the Office of National Statistics mortality data (up to 2012). Unadjusted and adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for cancer-specific and all-cause mortality in post-diagnostic clopidogrel users were calculated using time-dependent Cox regression models.

RESULTS: The analysis included 10 359 colorectal, 17 889 breast and 13 155 prostate cancer patients. There was no evidence of an increase in cancer-specific mortality in clopidogrel users with colorectal (HR = 0.98 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.77, 1.24) or prostate cancer (HR = 1.03 95%CI 0.82, 1.28). There was limited evidence of an increase in breast cancer patients (HR = 1.22 95%CI 0.90, 1.65); however, this was attenuated when removing prescriptions in the year prior to death.

CONCLUSIONS: This novel study of large population-based cohorts of colorectal, breast and prostate cancer patients found no evidence of an increased risk of cancer-specific mortality among colorectal, breast and prostate cancer patients using clopidogrel.

Statin use after diagnosis of breast cancer and survival: a population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND: Preclinical studies have shown that statins, particularly simvastatin, can prevent growth in breast cancer cell lines and animal models. We investigated whether statins used after breast cancer diagnosis reduced the risk of breast cancer-specific, or all-cause, mortality in a large cohort of breast cancer patients.

METHODS: A cohort of 17,880 breast cancer patients, newly diagnosed between 1998 and 2009, was identified from English cancer registries (from the National Cancer Data Repository). This cohort was linked to the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink, providing prescription records, and to the Office of National Statistics mortality data (up to 2013), identifying 3694 deaths, including 1469 deaths attributable to breast cancer. Unadjusted and adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for breast cancer-specific, and all-cause, mortality in statin users after breast cancer diagnosis were calculated using time-dependent Cox regression models. Sensitivity analyses were conducted using multiple imputation methods, propensity score methods and a case-control approach.

RESULTS: There was some evidence that statin use after a diagnosis of breast cancer had reduced mortality due to breast cancer and all causes (fully adjusted HR = 0.84 [95% confidence interval = 0.68-1.04] and 0.84 [0.72-0.97], respectively). These associations were more marked for simvastatin 0.79 (0.63-1.00) and 0.81 (0.70-0.95), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS: In this large population-based breast cancer cohort, there was some evidence of reduced mortality in statin users after breast cancer diagnosis. However, these associations were weak in magnitude and were attenuated in some sensitivity analyses.

Low-Dose Aspirin Use After Diagnosis of Colorectal Cancer Does Not Increase Survival: A Case–Control Analysis of a Population-Based Cohort

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Individuals who began taking low-dose aspirin before they were diagnosed with colorectal cancer were reported to have longer survival times than patients who did not take this drug. We investigated survival times of patients who begin taking low-dose aspirin after a diagnosis of colorectal cancer in a large population-based cohort study.

METHODS: We performed a nested case-control analysis using a cohort of 4794 patients diagnosed with colorectal cancer from 1998 through 2007, identified from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink and confirmed by cancer registries. There were 1559 colorectal cancer-specific deaths, recorded by the Office of National Statistics; these were each matched with up to 5 risk-set controls. Conditional logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI), based on practitioner-recorded aspirin usage.

RESULTS: Overall, low-dose aspirin use after a diagnosis of colorectal cancer was not associated with colorectal cancer-specific mortality (adjusted OR = 1.06; 95% CI: 0.92-1.24) or all-cause mortality (adjusted OR = 1.06; 95% CI: 0.94-1.19). A dose-response association was not apparent; for example, low-dose aspirin use for more than 1 year after diagnosis was not associated with colorectal cancer-specific mortality (adjusted OR = 0.98; 95% CI: 0.82-1.19). There was also no association between low-dose aspirin usage and colon cancer-specific mortality (adjusted OR = 1.02; 95% CI: 0.83-1.25) or rectal cancer-specific mortality (adjusted OR = 1.10; 95% CI: 0.88-1.38).

CONCLUSIONS: In a large population-based cohort, low-dose aspirin usage after diagnosis of colorectal cancer did not increase survival time.

Optimal control and numerical optimization applied to epidemiological models

A relação entre a epidemiologia, a modelação matemática e as ferramentas computacionais permite construir e testar teorias sobre o desenvolvimento e combate de uma doença. Esta tese tem como motivação o estudo de modelos epidemiológicos aplicados a doenças infeciosas numa perspetiva de Controlo Ótimo, dando particular relevância ao Dengue. Sendo uma doença tropical e subtropical transmitida por mosquitos, afecta cerca de 100 milhões de pessoas por ano, e é considerada pela Organização Mundial de Saúde como uma grande preocupação para a saúde pública. Os modelos matemáticos desenvolvidos e testados neste trabalho, baseiam-se em equações diferenciais ordinárias que descrevem a dinâmica subjacente à doença nomeadamente a interação entre humanos e mosquitos. É feito um estudo analítico dos mesmos relativamente aos pontos de equilíbrio, sua estabilidade e número básico de reprodução. A propagação do Dengue pode ser atenuada através de medidas de controlo do vetor transmissor, tais como o uso de inseticidas específicos e campanhas educacionais. Como o desenvolvimento de uma potencial vacina tem sido uma aposta mundial recente, são propostos modelos baseados na simulação de um hipotético processo de vacinação numa população. Tendo por base a teoria de Controlo Ótimo, são analisadas as estratégias ótimas para o uso destes controlos e respetivas repercussões na redução/erradicação da doença aquando de um surto na população, considerando uma abordagem bioeconómica. Os problemas formulados são resolvidos numericamente usando métodos diretos e indiretos. Os primeiros discretizam o problema reformulando-o num problema de optimização não linear. Os métodos indiretos usam o Princípio do Máximo de Pontryagin como condição necessária para encontrar a curva ótima para o respetivo controlo. Nestas duas estratégias utilizam-se vários pacotes de software numérico. Ao longo deste trabalho, houve sempre um compromisso entre o realismo dos modelos epidemiológicos e a sua tratabilidade em termos matemáticos.

Selection and combination of biomarkers to control and prevent the risk of occupational exposure to the mixture of lead, arsenic and manganese

Tese de doutoramento, Farmácia (Toxicologia), Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Farmácia, 2014

Daily physical activities and sports in adult survivors of childhood cancer and healthy controls: a population-based questionnaire survey.

BACKGROUND: Healthy lifestyle including sufficient physical activity may mitigate or prevent adverse long-term effects of childhood cancer. We described daily physical activities and sports in childhood cancer survivors and controls, and assessed determinants of both activity patterns. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The Swiss Childhood Cancer Survivor Study is a questionnaire survey including all children diagnosed with cancer 1976-2003 at age 0-15 years, registered in the Swiss Childhood Cancer Registry, who survived ≥5 years and reached adulthood (≥20 years). Controls came from the population-based Swiss Health Survey. We compared the two populations and determined risk factors for both outcomes in separate multivariable logistic regression models. The sample included 1058 survivors and 5593 controls (response rates 78% and 66%). Sufficient daily physical activities were reported by 52% (n = 521) of survivors and 37% (n = 2069) of controls (p<0.001). In contrast, 62% (n = 640) of survivors and 65% (n = 3635) of controls reported engaging in sports (p = 0.067). Risk factors for insufficient daily activities in both populations were: older age (OR for ≥35 years: 1.5, 95CI 1.2-2.0), female gender (OR 1.6, 95CI 1.3-1.9), French/Italian Speaking (OR 1.4, 95CI 1.1-1.7), and higher education (OR for university education: 2.0, 95CI 1.5-2.6). Risk factors for no sports were: being a survivor (OR 1.3, 95CI 1.1-1.6), older age (OR for ≥35 years: 1.4, 95CI 1.1-1.8), migration background (OR 1.5, 95CI 1.3-1.8), French/Italian speaking (OR 1.4, 95CI 1.2-1.7), lower education (OR for compulsory schooling only: 1.6, 95CI 1.2-2.2), being married (OR 1.7, 95CI 1.5-2.0), having children (OR 1.3, 95CI 1.4-1.9), obesity (OR 2.4, 95CI 1.7-3.3), and smoking (OR 1.7, 95CI 1.5-2.1). Type of diagnosis was only associated with sports. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Physical activity levels in survivors were lower than recommended, but comparable to controls and mainly determined by socio-demographic and cultural factors. Strategies to improve physical activity levels could be similar as for the general population.

Linking Global Youth Tobacco Survey (GYTS) data to the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC): the case for the Seychelles

Tobacco control has been recognized as a main public health concern in Seychelles for the past two decades. Tobacco advertising, sponsoring and promotion has been banned for years, tobacco products are submitted to high taxes, high-profile awareness programs are organized regularly, and several other control measures have been implemented. The Republic of Seychelles was the first country to ratify the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) in the African region. Three population-based surveys have been conducted in adults in Seychelles and results showed a substantial decrease in the prevalence of smoking among adults between 1989 and 2004. A first survey in adolescents was conducted in Seychelles in 2002 (the Global Youth Tobacco Survey, GYTS) in a representative sample of 1321 girls and boys aged 13-15 years. The results show that approximately half of students had tried smoking and a quarter of both boys and girls had smoked at least one cigarette during the past 30 days. Although "current smoking" is defined differently in adolescents (>or=1 cigarette during the past 30 days) and in adults (>or=1 cigarette per day), which precludes direct comparison, the high smoking prevalence in youth in Seychelles likely predicts an increasing prevalence of tobacco use in the next adult generation, particularly in women. GYTS 2002 also provides important data on a wide range of specific individual and societal factors influencing tobacco use. Hence, GYTS can be a powerful tool for monitoring the situation of tobacco use in adolescents, for highlighting the need for new policy and programs, and for evaluating the impact of current and future programs.

Cardiovascular risk estimation and eligibility for statin therapy using different scoring systems in Europe: a population-based study in Switzerland

BACKGROUND: Recommendations for statin use for primary prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD) are based on estimation of the 10- year CHD risk. We compared the 10-year CHD risk assessments and eligibility percentages for statin therapy using three scoring algorithms currently used in Europe. METHODS: We studied 5683 women and men, aged 35-75, without overt cardiovascular disease (CVD), in a population-based study in Switzerland. We compared the 10-year CHD risk using three scoring schemes, i.e., the Framingham risk score (FRS) from the U.S. National Cholesterol Education Program's Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP III), the PROCAM scoring scheme from the International Atherosclerosis Society (IAS), and the European risk SCORE for low-risk countries, without and with extrapolation to 60 years as recommended by the European Society of Cardiology guidelines (ESC). With FRS and PROCAM, high-risk was defined as a 10- year risk of fatal or non-fatal CHD>20% and a 10-year risk of fatal CVD≥5% with SCORE. We compared the proportions of high-risk participants and eligibility for statin use according to these three schemes. For each guideline, we estimated the impact of increased statin use from current partial compliance to full compliance on potential CHD deaths averted over 10 years, using a success proportion of 27% for statins. RESULTS: Participants classified at high-risk (both genders) were 5.8% according to FRS and 3.0% to the PROCAM, whereas the European risk SCORE classified 12.5% at high-risk (15.4% with extrapolation to 60 years). For the primary prevention of CHD, 18.5% of participants were eligible for statin therapy using ATP III, 16.6% using IAS, and 10.3% using ESC (13.0% with extrapolation) because ESC guidelines recommend statin therapy only in high-risk subjects. In comparison with IAS, agreement to identify eligible adults for statins was good with ATP III, but moderate with ESC. Using a population perspective, a full compliance with ATP III guidelines would reduce up to 17.9% of the 24′ 310 CHD deaths expected over 10 years in Switzerland, 17.3% with IAS and 10.8% with ESC (11.5% with extrapolation). CONCLUSIONS: Full compliance with guidelines for statin therapy would result in substantial health benefits, but proportions of high-risk adults and eligible adults for statin use varied substantially depending on the scoring systems and corresponding guidelines used for estimating CHD risk in Europe.

Targeting burn prevention in the paediatric population : a prospective study of children's burns in the Lausanne area.

QUESTION UNDER STUDY: Domestic accidents are an important problem in paediatric medicine. This study was designed to gain a better understanding of burn mechanisms and target prevention. METHODS: Children treated for burn lesions in the Department of Paediatric Surgery between August 2004 and August 2005 were included in this prospective study. The burn mechanisms, the children's ages and the circumstances in which children were burned as well as their home environment variables were analyzed. RESULTS: The current study included eighty-nine patients, aged between 2 months and 15 years. Seventy-eight percent were less than 5 years old. More than half were boys. Hot liquid scalding was the most frequent mechanism. There does not seem to be an increased risk in the immigrant population or in low economic status families. In most cases, an adult person was present at time of injury. CONCLUSIONS: If we were to describe the highest "at risk" candidate for a burn in our region, it would be a boy aged 15 months to 5 years who is burned by a cup of hot liquid on his hand, at home, around mealtime, in the presence of one or both parents. Reduced attention in the safe domestic setting is probably responsible.