On information and competition in private value auctions

How much information does an auctioneer want bidders to have in a private value environment?We address this question using a novel approach to ordering information structures based on the property that in private value settings more information leads to a more disperse distribution of buyers updated expected valuations. We define the class of precision criteria following this approach and different notions of dispersion, and relate them to existing criteria of informativeness. Using supermodular precision, we obtain three results: (1) a more precise information structure yields a more efficient allocation; (2) the auctioneer provides less than the efficient level of information since more information increases bidder informational rents; (3) there is a strategic complementarity between information and competition, so that both the socially efficient and the auctioneer s optimal choice of precision increase with the number of bidders, and both converge as the number of bidders goes to infinity.

Betting on Hitler: The value of political connections in Nazi Germany

This paper examines the value of connections between German industry andthe Nazi movement in early 1933. Drawing on previously unused contemporarysources about management and supervisory board composition and stock returns,we find that one out of seven firms, and a large proportion of the biggest companies,had substantive links with the National Socialist German Workers Party. Firmssupporting the Nazi movement experienced unusually high returns, outperformingunconnected ones by 5% to 8% between January and March 1933. These resultsare not driven by sectoral composition and are robust to alternative estimatorsand definitions of affiliation.

Quantitative Assessment of Handwriting Evidence: The Value of the Shape of the Letter "A"

To provide a quantitative support to the handwriting evidence evaluation, a new method was developed through the computation of a likelihood ratio based on a Bayesian approach. In the present paper, the methodology is briefly described and applied to data collected within a simulated case of a threatening letter. Fourier descriptors are used to characterise the shape of loops of handwritten characters "a" of the true writer of the threatening letter, and: 1) with reference characters "a" of the true writer of the threatening letter, and then 2) with characters "a" of a writer who did not write the threatening letter. The findings support that the probabilistic methodology correctly supports either the hypothesis of authorship or the alternative hypothesis. Further developments will enable the handwriting examiner to use this methodology as a helpful assistance to assess the strength of evidence in handwriting casework.

Social value orientation as a moral intuition: Decision-making in the dictator game

We studied the decision making process in the Dictator Game and showed that decisions are the result of a two-step process. In a first step, decision makers generate an automatic, intuitive proposal. Given sufficient motivation and cognitive resources, they adjust this in a second, more deliberated phase. In line with the social intuitionist model, we show that one s Social Value Orientation determines intuitive choice tendencies in the first step, and that this effect is mediated by the dictator s perceived interpersonal closeness with the receiver. Self-interested concerns subsequently leadto a reduction of donation size in step 2. Finally, we show that increasing interpersonal closeness can promote pro-social decision-making.

The Value of Private Information within Evolving Groups

This note offers an analytical framework aimed at explaining how individual agents purposefully act with the goal of managing the value of their information sets. Agents undertake a process of private accumulation of information, which takes into account the non-rival nature of this peculiar entity. Non rivalry introduces an externality that might trigger long-term endogenous fluctuations. The dynamics of interaction, namely the possibility of entering or exiting the group to which the individuals belong, wil l determine time trajectories for the information flows that are unique for the specific conditions of interaction that are being considered at a given momentEste artigo apresenta uma estrutura analítica que tem por objetivo explicar como é que os agentes individuais atuam, de modo intencional, com o propósito de gerir o valor da informação que detêm. Os agentes prosseguem um processo de acumulação privada de informação, o qual toma em consideração a natureza não rival desta entidade que detém características específicas. A não rivalidade introduz uma externalidade que pode despoletar flutuações endógenas de longo prazo. A dinâmica de interação, nomeadamente a possibilidade de entrar ou sair do grupo a que os indivíduos pertencem, vai determinar a formação de trajetórias no tempo para os fluxos de informação, as quais são únicas para as condições particulares de interação que estão a ser consideradas num determinado momento.

The social value of health programs: Is age a relevant factor?

In cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) it is usually assumed that a QALY is of equal value to everybody, irrespective of the patient's age. However, it is possible that society assigns different social values to a QALY according to who gets it. In this paper we discuss the possibility of weighting health benefits for age in CEA. We also examinethe possibility that age-related preferences depend on the size of the health gain. An experiment was performedto test these hypotheses. The results assessing suggest that the patient's age is a relevant factor when assessing health gains.

Perceptual mapping of practical ethics along the value chain: A multiple correspondence analysis with industry and cultural indices as supplementary variables

This paper presents findings from a study investigating a firm s ethical practices along the value chain. In so doing we attempt to better understand potential relationships between a firm s ethical stance with its customers and those of its suppliers within a supply chain and identify particular sectoral and cultural influences that might impinge on this. Drawing upon a database comprising of 667 industrial firms from 27 different countries, we found that ethical practices begin with the firm s relationship with its customers, the characteristics of which then influence the ethical stance with the firm s suppliers within the supply chain. Importantly, market structure along with some key cultural characteristics were also found to exert significant influence on the implementation of ethical policies in these firms.

Weak and strong altruism in traitgGroups: Reproductive suicide, personal fitness and expected value

A simple variant of trait group selection, employing predators as themechanism underlying group selection, supports contingent reproductivesuicide as altruism (i.e., behavior lowering personal fitness whileaugmenting that of another) without kin assortment. The contingentsuicidal type may either saturate the population or be polymorphicwith a type avoiding suicide, depending on parameters. In addition tocontingent suicide, this randomly assorting morph may also exhibitcontinuously expressed strong altruism (sensu Wilson 1979) usuallythought restricted to kin selection. The model will not, however,support a sterile worker caste as such, where sterility occurs beforelife history events associated with effective altruism; reproductivesuicide must remain fundamentally contingent (facultative sensu WestEberhard 1987; Myles 1988) under random assortment. The continuouslyexpressed strong altruism supported by the model may be reinterpretedas probability of arbitrarily committing reproductive suicide, withoutbenefit for another; such arbitrary suicide (a "load" on "adaptive"suicide) is viable only under a more restricted parameter spacerelative to the necessarily concomitant adaptive contingent suicide.

The predictive value of trabecular bone score (TBS) on whole lumbar vertebrae mechanics: an ex vivo study.

We investigated the association of trabecular bone score (TBS) with microarchitecture and mechanical behavior of human lumbar vertebrae. We found that TBS reflects vertebral trabecular microarchitecture and is an independent predictor of vertebral mechanics. However, the addition of TBS to areal BMD (aBMD) did not significantly improve prediction of vertebral strength. INTRODUCTION: The trabecular bone score (TBS) is a gray-level measure of texture using a modified experimental variogram which can be extracted from dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) images. The current study aimed to confirm whether TBS is associated with trabecular microarchitecture and mechanics of human lumbar vertebrae, and if its combination with BMD improves prediction of fracture risk. METHODS: Lumbar vertebrae (L3) were harvested fresh from 16 donors. The anteroposterior and lateral bone mineral content (BMC) and areal BMD (aBMD) of the vertebral body were measured using DXA; then, the TBS was extracted using TBS iNsight software (Medimaps SA, France). The trabecular bone volume (Tb.BV/tissue volume, TV), trabecular thickness (Tb.Th), degree of anisotropy, and structure model index (SMI) were measured using microcomputed tomography. Quasi-static uniaxial compressive testing was performed on L3 vertebral bodies to assess failure load and stiffness. RESULTS: The TBS was significantly correlated to Tb.BV/TV and SMI (râeuro0/00=âeuro0/000.58 and -0.62; pâeuro0/00=âeuro0/000.02, 0.01), but not related to BMC and BMD. TBS was significantly correlated with stiffness (râeuro0/00=âeuro0/000.64; pâeuro0/00=âeuro0/000.007), independently of bone mass. Using stepwise multiple regression models, we failed to demonstrate that the combination of BMD and TBS was better at explaining mechanical behavior than either variable alone. However, the combination TBS, Tb.Th, and BMC did perform better than each parameter alone, explaining 79 % of the variability in stiffness. CONCLUSIONS: In our study, TBS was associated with microarchitecture parameters and with vertebral mechanical behavior, but TBS did not improve prediction of vertebral biomechanical properties in addition to aBMD.

The predictive value of preoperative B-type natriuretic peptide in children undergooing heart surgery.

Introduction: Low cardiac output syndrome is frequent in childrenafter heart surgery for congenital heart disease and may result in pooroutcome and increased morbidity. In the adult population, preoperativebrain natriuretic peptide (BNP) was shown to be predictive of postoperative complications. In children, the value of preoperative BNP onpostoperative outcome is not so clear. The aim of this study was todetermine the predictive value of preoperative BNP on postoperativeoutcome and low cardiac output syndrome in children after heartsurgery for congenital heart disease.Methods: We examined, retrospectively, the postoperative course of97 pediatric patients (mean age 3.7 years, range 0-14 years old) whounderwent heart surgery in a tertiary care pediatric intensive caresetting. NTproBNP was measured preoperatively in all patients(median 412 pg/ml, range 12-35'000 pg/ml). Patients were divided intothree groups according to their NTproBNP levels (group 1: 0-300 pg/ml, group 2: 300-600 pg/ml, group 3: >600 pg/ml) and then,correlations with postoperative outcomes were examined.Results: We found that patients with a high preoperative BNP requiredmore frequently prolonged (>2 days) mechanical ventilation (33%vs 40% vs 61%, p = 0.045) and stayed more frequently longer than6 days in the intensive care unit (42% vs 50% vs 71%, p = 0.03).However, high preoperative BNP was not correlated with occurrenceof low cardiac output syndrome.Conclusion: Preoperative BNP cannot be used, in children, as areliable and sole predictor of postoperative low cardiac outputsyndrome. However it may help identify, before surgery, those patientsat risk of having a difficult postoperative course.

Feasibility of a knowledge translation CME program: courriels Cochrane.

INTRODUCTION: Systematic literature reviews provide best evidence, but are underused by clinicians. Thus, integrating Cochrane reviews into continuing medical education (CME) is challenging. We designed a pilot CME program where summaries of Cochrane reviews (Courriels Cochrane) were disseminated by e-mail. Program participants automatically received CME credit for each Courriel Cochrane they rated. The feasibility of this program is reported (delivery, participation, and participant evaluation). METHOD: We recruited French-speaking physicians through the Canadian Medical Association. Program delivery and participation were documented. Participants rated the informational value of Courriels Cochrane using the Information Assessment Method (IAM), which documented their reflective learning (relevance, cognitive impact, use for a patient, expected health benefits). IAM responses were aggregated and analyzed. RESULTS: The program was delivered as planned. Thirty Courriels Cochrane were delivered to 985 physicians, and 127 (12.9%) completed at least one IAM questionnaire. Out of 1109 Courriels Cochrane ratings, 973 (87.7%) conta-ined 1 or more types of positive cognitive impact, while 835 (75.3%) were clinically relevant. Participants reported the use of information for a patient and expected health benefits in 595 (53.7%) and 569 (51.3%) ratings, respectively. DISCUSSION: Program delivery required partnering with 5 organizations. Participants valued Courriels Cochrane. IAM ratings documented their reflective learning. The aggregation of IAM ratings documented 3 levels of CME outcomes: participation, learning, and performance. This evaluation study demonstrates the feasibility of the Courriels Cochrane as an approach to further disseminate Cochrane systematic literature reviews to clinicians and document self-reported knowledge translation associated with Cochrane reviews.

Formation continue: comment concilier devoir et besoins [Continuing education: how to reconcile needs and wants]

La formation continue fait à l'évidence partie intégrante de la vie du médecin, elle est non seulement un devoir éthique envers les patients mais également l'expression du besoin de se maintenir «à la page» dans sa pratique quotidienne, conséquence des progrès rapides en médecine, particulièrement en oncologie médicale. Elle peut être également source de plaisir quand il s'agit d'accroître ses connaissances. Ses règles minimales ont été définies depuis plusieurs années par la FMH qui délègue aux sociétés de disciplines son application pratique. En 2008, une révision nécessaire pour différentes raisons a facilité le calcul des crédits. Même si le total des heures de formation est resté le même (50 crédits), il a été partagé par deux : 25 pour la formation spécifique et 25 qui peuvent être acquis dans une autre discipline (révision de mars 2009 du Règlement pour la formation continue, art. 5a). Cette révision n'a pas réjoui toutes les sociétés de spécialistes qui gardent la faculté de revoir à la hausse le minimum jugé nécessaire à leur discipline. La quantité des offres de formation continue pour les médecins pose le problème d'être proprement pléthorique (congrès nationaux et internationaux, e-learning, symposiums locaux, etc.), il n'en va pas de même de leur qualité. Dans le domaine de l'oncologie médicale, les offres sont abondantes dans un contexte de marketing évident : les maisons pharmaceutiques parrainent des réunions avec un orateur mercenaire, prestigieux si possible, invité à vanter un produit spécifique dans un cycle de présentations en différents lieux de Romandie (avec à chaque fois, la possibilité d'inscrire des crédits à l'actif des participants)... Elles soutiennent également, par leur logistique, de miniconférences organisées par les différentes institutions locales et auxquelles les médecins ne participent que de façon sporadique vu leur intérêt souvent très secondaire - il n'est pas rare que l'auditoire médical se résume à cinq ou dix participants. Au final, ces offres dispersées et de qualité discutable monopolisent les ressources qui se raréfient rapidement dans le contexte économique actuel et qui doivent impérativement être utilisées de manière plus judicieuse, notamment en évitant les manifestations répétitives. Devant toutes ces offres, il est souvent difficile pour la société de discipline de séparer le bon grain de l'ivraie et en conséquence d'attribuer de manière objective les crédits de formation. Partant de ce constat, un petit groupe romand de médecins oncologues praticiens installés et des centres universitaires ont réfléchi à l'idée de regrouper au sein d'une seule structure romande l'organisation d'une formation continue qui réponde à la fois aux besoins et à l'exigence de qualité. Ses tâches sont multiples : mettre sur pied annuellement plusieurs demi-journées de formation, préaviser avec un comité scientifique de la qualité de la formation continue distillée sur son territoire de compétence (sans empiéter sur les prérogatives de la commission pour la formation postgraduée de la Société suisse d'oncologie médicale - SSOM) en rapprochant les centres universitaires, les hôpitaux cantonaux et régionaux, et les praticiens. Ainsi est née l'association FoROMe (Formation romande en oncologie médicale). Sa légitimité a été établie par la SSOM et par le Comité pour la formation postgraduée et continue (nouvellement SIWF) de la FMH. Elle est maintenant en mesure de mettre en application les tâches pour lesquelles elle a été constituée. Il est évident que cela n'ira pas sans résistance et que certains diront qu'ils ne voient pas la nécessité d'une structure supplémentaire, que les sociétés de disciplines font très bien leur travail, qu'il s'agit encore là d'une atteinte à la liberté. Cependant les nécessités économiques vont tôt ou tard venir au secours de la logique pour confirmer les changements que cette démarche a permis d'anticiper. A l'avenir, il s'agira d'assurer le bien-fondé de cette initiative et de rester vigilant au bon fonctionnement de cette structure à la satisfaction de nos membres.

Predictive value of the MGMT promoter methylation status in metastatic melanoma patients receiving first-line temozolomide plus bevacizumab in the trial SAKK 50/07.

The O6-methylguanine-DNA-methyltransferase (MGMT) promoter methylation status is a predictive parameter for the response of malignant gliomas to alkylating agents such as temozolomide. First clinical trials with temozolomide plus bevacizumab therapy in metastatic melanoma patients are ongoing, although the predictive value of the MGMT promoter methylation status in this setting remains unclear. We assessed MGMT promoter methylation in formalin-fixed, primary tumor tissue of metastatic melanoma patients treated with first-line temozolomide and bevacizumab from the trial SAKK 50/07 by methylation-specific polymerase chain reaction. In addition, the MGMT expression levels were also analyzed by MGMT immunohistochemistry. Eleven of 42 primary melanomas (26%) revealed a methylated MGMT promoter. Promoter methylation was significantly associated with response rates CR + PR versus SD + PD according to RECIST (response evaluation criteria in solid tumors) (p<0.05) with a trend to prolonged median progression-free survival (8.1 versus 3.4 months, p>0.05). Immunohistochemically different protein expression patterns with heterogeneous and homogeneous nuclear MGMT expression were identified. Negative MGMT expression levels were associated with overall disease stabilization CR+PR+SD versus PD (p=0.05). There was only a poor correlation between MGMT methylation and lack of MGMT expression. A significant proportion of melanomas have a methylated MGMT promoter. The MGMT promoter methylation status may be a promising predictive marker for temozolomide therapy in metastatic melanoma patients. Larger sample sizes may help to validate significant differences in survival type endpoints.

Transportation choices and the value of statistical life

This paper exploits an unusual transportation setting to estimate the value of a statistical life(VSL). We estimate the trade-offs individuals are willing to make between mortality risk andcost as they travel to and from the international airport in Sierra Leone (which is separated fromthe capital Freetown by a body of water). Travelers choose from among multiple transportoptions ? namely, ferry, helicopter, hovercraft, and water taxi. The setting and original datasetallow us to address some typical omitted variable concerns in order to generate some of the firstrevealed preference VSL estimates from Africa. The data also allows us to compare VSLestimates for travelers from 56 countries, including 20 African and 36 non-African countries, allfacing the same choice situation. The average VSL estimate for African travelers in the sample isUS$577,000 compared to US$924,000 for non-Africans. Individual characteristics, particularlyjob earnings, can largely account for the difference between Africans and non-Africans; Africansin the sample typically earn somewhat less. There is little evidence that individual VSL estimatesare driven by a lack of information, predicted life expectancy, or cultural norms around risktakingor fatalism. The data implies an income elasticity of the VSL of 1.77. These revealedpreference VSL estimates from a developing country fill an important gap in the existingliterature, and can be used for a variety of public policy purposes, including in current debateswithin Sierra Leone regarding the desirability of constructing new transportation infrastructure.