Evaluating the influence of spatial uncertainty in locality points for species distributional modeling

1. Species distribution modelling is used increasingly in both applied and theoretical research to predict how species are distributed and to understand attributes of species' environmental requirements. In species distribution modelling, various statistical methods are used that combine species occurrence data with environmental spatial data layers to predict the suitability of any site for that species. While the number of data sharing initiatives involving species' occurrences in the scientific community has increased dramatically over the past few years, various data quality and methodological concerns related to using these data for species distribution modelling have not been addressed adequately. 2. We evaluated how uncertainty in georeferences and associated locational error in occurrences influence species distribution modelling using two treatments: (1) a control treatment where models were calibrated with original, accurate data and (2) an error treatment where data were first degraded spatially to simulate locational error. To incorporate error into the coordinates, we moved each coordinate with a random number drawn from the normal distribution with a mean of zero and a standard deviation of 5 km. We evaluated the influence of error on the performance of 10 commonly used distributional modelling techniques applied to 40 species in four distinct geographical regions. 3. Locational error in occurrences reduced model performance in three of these regions; relatively accurate predictions of species distributions were possible for most species, even with degraded occurrences. Two species distribution modelling techniques, boosted regression trees and maximum entropy, were the best performing models in the face of locational errors. The results obtained with boosted regression trees were only slightly degraded by errors in location, and the results obtained with the maximum entropy approach were not affected by such errors. 4. Synthesis and applications. To use the vast array of occurrence data that exists currently for research and management relating to the geographical ranges of species, modellers need to know the influence of locational error on model quality and whether some modelling techniques are particularly robust to error. We show that certain modelling techniques are particularly robust to a moderate level of locational error and that useful predictions of species distributions can be made even when occurrence data include some error.

Numerical Taxonomy of Old World Phlebotominae (Diptera: Psychodidae): 2. Restatement of Classification upon Subgeneric Morphological Characters

Numerical analyses (correspondence analysis, ascending hierarchical classification, and cladistics) were done with morphological characters of adult phlebotomine sand flies. The resulting classification largely confirms that of classical taxonomy for supra-specific groups from the Old World, though the positions of some groups are adjusted. The taxa Spelaeophlebotomus Theodor 1948, Idiophlebotomus Quate & Fairchild 1961, Australophlebotomus Theodor 1948 and Chinius Leng 1987 are notably distinct from other Old World groups, particularly from the genus Phlebotomus Rondani & Berté 1840. Spelaeomyia Theodor 1948 and, in particular, Parvidens Theodor & Mesghali 1964 are clearly separate from Sergentomyia França & Parrot 1920.

Characterization of Endotrypanum (Kinetoplastida: Trypanosomatidae), a Unique Parasite Infecting the Neotropical Tree Sloths (Edentata)

This article reviews current concepts of the biology of Endotrypanum spp. Data summarized here on parasite classification and taxonomic divergence found among these haemoflagellates come from our studies of molecular characterization of Endotrypanum stocks (representing an heterogenous population of reference strains and isolates from the Brazilian Amazon region) and from scientific literature. Using numerical zymotaxonomy we have demonstrated genetic diversity among these parasites. The molecular trees obtained revealed that there are, at least, three groups (distinct species?) of Endotrypanum, which are distributed in Central and South America. In concordance with this classification of the parasites there are further newer molecular data obtained using distinct markers. Moreover, comparative studies (based on the molecular genetics of the organisms) have shown the phylogenetic relationships between some Endotrypanum and related kinetoplastid lineages.

Skin permeation and metabolism of di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP).

Phthalates are suspected to be endocrine disruptors. Di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP) is assumed to have low dermal absorption; however, previous in vitro skin permeation studies have shown large permeation differences. Our aims were to determine DEHP permeation parameters and assess extent of skin DEHP metabolism among workers highly exposed to these lipophilic, low volatile substances. Surgically removed skin from patients undergoing abdominoplasty was immediately dermatomed (800 μm) and mounted on flow-through diffusion cells (1.77 cm(2)) operating at 32°C with cell culture media (aqueous solution) as the reservoir liquid. The cells were dosed either with neat DEHP or emulsified in aqueous solution (166 μg/ml). Samples were analysed by HPLC-MS/MS. DEHP permeated human viable skin only as the metabolite MEHP (100%) after 8h of exposure. Human skin was able to further oxidize MEHP to 5-oxo-MEHP. Neat DEHP applied to the skin hardly permeated skin while the aqueous solution readily permeated skin measured in both cases as concentration of MEHP in the receptor liquid. DEHP pass through human skin, detected as MEHP only when emulsified in aqueous solution, and to a far lesser degree when applied neat to the skin. Using results from older in vitro skin permeation studies with non-viable skin may underestimate skin exposures. Our results are in overall agreement with newer phthalate skin permeation studies.

Sensitivity of predictive species distribution models to change in grain size

Predictive species distribution modelling (SDM) has become an essential tool in biodiversity conservation and management. The choice of grain size (resolution) of environmental layers used in modelling is one important factor that may affect predictions. We applied 10 distinct modelling techniques to presence-only data for 50 species in five different regions, to test whether: (1) a 10-fold coarsening of resolution affects predictive performance of SDMs, and (2) any observed effects are dependent on the type of region, modelling technique, or species considered. Results show that a 10 times change in grain size does not severely affect predictions from species distribution models. The overall trend is towards degradation of model performance, but improvement can also be observed. Changing grain size does not equally affect models across regions, techniques, and species types. The strongest effect is on regions and species types, with tree species in the data sets (regions) with highest locational accuracy being most affected. Changing grain size had little influence on the ranking of techniques: boosted regression trees remain best at both resolutions. The number of occurrences used for model training had an important effect, with larger sample sizes resulting in better models, which tended to be more sensitive to grain. Effect of grain change was only noticeable for models reaching sufficient performance and/or with initial data that have an intrinsic error smaller than the coarser grain size.

Geometry and physics of catenanes applied to the study of DNA replication.

The concept of ideal geometric configurations was recently applied to the classification and characterization of various knots. Different knots in their ideal form (i.e., the one requiring the shortest length of a constant-diameter tube to form a given knot) were shown to have an overall compactness proportional to the time-averaged compactness of thermally agitated knotted polymers forming corresponding knots. This was useful for predicting the relative speed of electrophoretic migration of different DNA knots. Here we characterize the ideal geometric configurations of catenanes (called links by mathematicians), i.e., closed curves in space that are topologically linked to each other. We demonstrate that the ideal configurations of different catenanes show interrelations very similar to those observed in the ideal configurations of knots. By analyzing literature data on electrophoretic separations of the torus-type of DNA catenanes with increasing complexity, we observed that their electrophoretic migration is roughly proportional to the overall compactness of ideal representations of the corresponding catenanes. This correlation does not apply, however, to electrophoretic migration of certain replication intermediates, believed up to now to represent the simplest torus-type catenanes. We propose, therefore, that freshly replicated circular DNA molecules, in addition to forming regular catenanes, may also form hemicatenanes.

Infection of Calomys callosus (Rodentia Cricetidae) with strains of different Trypanosoma cruzi biodemes: pathogenicity, histotropism, and fibrosis induction

The influence of different Trypanosoma cruzi biodemes on the evolution of the infection and on the histopathological lesions of the heart and skeletal muscles, during the experimental infection of Calomys callosus, was investigated. Three groups of C. callosus were infected, respectively, with parasite strains representative of three different Biodemes: Type I (Y strain), Type II (21 SF strain), and Type III (Colombian strain). For each group, normal C. callosus were also used as controls. Marked differences have been detected in the responses of C. callosus to the infection with the three strains in this model. The strains Types I and II (Y and 21 SF) determined moderate lesions, mostly in the myocardium, with low parasitism, a rapid course, and total regression of the lesions by the 60th day of infection. Differently, Type III strain (Colombian), was more pathogenic for C. callosus and induced necrotic-inflammatory lesions in skeletal muscles and myocardium, in correspondence to intracellular parasitism. Proliferation of fibroblasts and amorphous matrix deposits, followed by interstitial fibrosis were present. Progressive regression of the inflammatory changes and collagen deposits occurred spontaneously. The progression and regression of both inflammation and fibrosis induced by the Colombian strain were further submitted to quantitative evaluation by morphometry. Results of the morphometric studies presented good correlation with the histopathological findings. The results confirm the importance of the different biodemes in the determination of tissue lesions and the peculiarities of response of C. callosus to infection with T. cruzi.

Assessing the Relationship between the Baseline Value of a Continuous Variable and Subsequent Change over Time

Analyzing the relationship between the baseline value and subsequent change of a continuous variable is a frequent matter of inquiry in cohort studies. These analyses are surprisingly complex, particularly if only two waves of data are available. It is unclear for non-biostatisticians where the complexity of this analysis lies and which statistical method is adequate.With the help of simulated longitudinal data of body mass index in children,we review statistical methods for the analysis of the association between the baseline value and subsequent change, assuming linear growth with time. Key issues in such analyses are mathematical coupling, measurement error, variability of change between individuals, and regression to the mean. Ideally, it is better to rely on multiple repeated measurements at different times and a linear random effects model is a standard approach if more than two waves of data are available. If only two waves of data are available, our simulations show that Blomqvist's method - which consists in adjusting for measurement error variance the estimated regression coefficient of observed change on baseline value - provides accurate estimates. The adequacy of the methods to assess the relationship between the baseline value and subsequent change depends on the number of data waves, the availability of information on measurement error, and the variability of change between individuals.

Clustering and hot spot detection in socio-economic spatio-temporal data

Distribution of socio-economic features in urban space is an important source of information for land and transportation planning. The metropolization phenomenon has changed the distribution of types of professions in space and has given birth to different spatial patterns that the urban planner must know in order to plan a sustainable city. Such distributions can be discovered by statistical and learning algorithms through different methods. In this paper, an unsupervised classification method and a cluster detection method are discussed and applied to analyze the socio-economic structure of Switzerland. The unsupervised classification method, based on Ward's classification and self-organized maps, is used to classify the municipalities of the country and allows to reduce a highly-dimensional input information to interpret the socio-economic landscape. The cluster detection method, the spatial scan statistics, is used in a more specific manner in order to detect hot spots of certain types of service activities. The method is applied to the distribution services in the agglomeration of Lausanne. Results show the emergence of new centralities and can be analyzed in both transportation and social terms.

Severity of endoscopically detected esophageal inflammatory and fibrostenotic features correlates with degree of esophageal eosinophilia in adults with eosinophilic esophagitis

Background: Eosinophilic esophagitis (EoE) has emerged as a leading cause of dysphagia in adults. Characteristic esophageal features on endoscopy include structural/fibrostenotic (rings, narrow caliber, strictures) and inflammatory manifestations (longitudinal furrows, exudates, edema). Aim: The purpose of this study was to correlate the clinical, endoscopic and histopathologic features in adult EoE patients. Methods: A total of 106 encounters of 81 patients with EoE were analyzed. Data included an EoE-directed symptom-severity patient questionnaire evaluating symptoms of dysphagia (frequency, intensity, duration), meal duration, chest pain, and overall symptom severity. Video recordings of endoscopies were reviewed in a blinded manner using a classification and grading scheme for the esophageal features of EoE. Histopathology was reviewed for peak eosinophil count/high power field by pathologists blinded to the patients' clinical status. Associations between endoscopic features, histology and symptoms were evaluated using the Spearman rank correlation analysis. Results: The endoscopic severity of both structural and inflammatory esophageal features of EoE, including rings, exudates, longitudinal furrows, and edema, correlated significantly with peak eosinophil counts (see Table 1). Presence of "crepe paper mucosa" did not demonstrate significant association with peak eosinophil counts. Both structural (rings, narrow-caliber esophagus and strictures) and inflammatory (furrows, exudates and edema) composite endoscopic scores demonstrated a strong correlation with peak eosinophil counts. The strongest association with the degree of esophageal eosinophilia was found with a combination of both structural and inflammatory findings (p < 0.0001). The esophageal diameter (in mm) was negatively correlated with overall symptom severity (Spearman's rho = -0.4883, P = 0.0339). None of the individual or combined patient reported symptoms correlated significantly with either endoscopic or histopathologic findings. Conclusion: The severity of both structural and inflammatory endoscopic features associated with EoE is significantly associated with the degree of esophageal eosinophilia. Patient reported symptom severity was not associated with the degree of esophageal eosinophilia. Esophageal stricture diameter was inversely correlated with EoE symptom severity. The prognostic and therapeutic implications of these observations need to be determined.

Breast cancer prognostic classification in the molecular era: the role of histological grade.

Breast cancer is a heterogeneous disease with varied morphological appearances, molecular features, behavior, and response to therapy. Current routine clinical management of breast cancer relies on the availability of robust clinical and pathological prognostic and predictive factors to support clinical and patient decision making in which potentially suitable treatment options are increasingly available. One of the best-established prognostic factors in breast cancer is histological grade, which represents the morphological assessment of tumor biological characteristics and has been shown to be able to generate important information related to the clinical behavior of breast cancers. Genome-wide microarray-based expression profiling studies have unraveled several characteristics of breast cancer biology and have provided further evidence that the biological features captured by histological grade are important in determining tumor behavior. Also, expression profiling studies have generated clinically useful data that have significantly improved our understanding of the biology of breast cancer, and these studies are undergoing evaluation as improved prognostic and predictive tools in clinical practice. Clinical acceptance of these molecular assays will require them to be more than expensive surrogates of established traditional factors such as histological grade. It is essential that they provide additional prognostic or predictive information above and beyond that offered by current parameters. Here, we present an analysis of the validity of histological grade as a prognostic factor and a consensus view on the significance of histological grade and its role in breast cancer classification and staging systems in this era of emerging clinical use of molecular classifiers.

Neuropathologie et pathologie moléculaire des gliomes [Neuropathology and molecular pathology of gliomas]

Gliomas are the most frequent primary brain tumours. The WHO classification is essentially based on histological and immunohistochemical criteria. More recently multiple cytogenetic and molecular alterations associated with initiation and progression have been shown and the genetic profiles of tumour entities have been incorporated in the WHO classifiacation. Molecular testing of the MGMT promotor methylation in glioblastoma, predictive for the response to combined radio-/chimiothérapie, and the LOH 1p/19q in oligodendroglial tumours, as prognostic factor supplements the histopathological diagnosis. In the near futur array-based profiling techniques will contribute to a refinement of glioma classification and identify targets for more individualized glioma therapies.

Survival, classifications, and desmosomal plaque genes in non-small cell lung cancer.

Novel biomarkers are required to improve prognostic predictions obtained with lung cancer staging systems. This study of 62 surgically-treated Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) patients had two objectives: i) to compare the predictive value of T-stage classifications between the 6(th) and 7(th) editions of the Tumor, Node, and Metastasis staging system (TNM); and ii) to examine the association of Pkp1 and/or Krt15 gene expression with survival and outcomes. Multivariate and Kaplan-Meier survival analyses were performed, examining the relationship of survival with T-stage, recurrence, and TNM-stage (by each TNM edition) and with the single/combined expression of Pkp1 and/or Krt15 genes. Five-year survival rates only significantly differed as a function of T-stage in patients without recurrence when estimated using the 6(th) edition of the TNM classification and only in patients in pathologic TNM-stage IA using the 7(th). Overall survival for patients with elevated expression of both genes was 13.5 months in those with adenocarcinoma and 34.6 months in those with squamous cell carcinoma. Overall survival was 30.4 months in patients with Pkp1 gene upregulation and 30.9 months in those with Krt15 gene upregulation. In conclusion, survival estimations as a function of T-staging differed between the 6(th) and 7(th) editions of TNM. Overall survival differed according to the expression of Pkp1 and/or Krt15 genes, although this relationship did not reach statistical significance.

Vitamin D status in a Brazilian cohort of adolescents and young adults with perinatally acquired human immunodeficiency virus infection

The purpose was to determine the prevalence and related factors of vitamin D (VitD) insufficiency in adolescents and young adults with perinatally acquired human immunodeficiency virus. A cohort of 65 patients (17.6 ± 2 years) at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, were examined for pubertal development, nutrition, serum parathormone and serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [s25(OH)D]. s25(OH)D levels < 30 ng/mL (< 75 nmol/L) were defined as VitD insufficiency. CD4+ T-cell counts and viral load, history of worst clinical status, immunologic status as nadir, current immunologic status, and antiretroviral (ART) regimen were also evaluated as risk factors for VitD insufficiency. Mean s25(OH)D was 37.7 ± 13.9 ng/mL and 29.2% had VitD insufficiency. There was no difference between VitD status and gender, age, nutritional status, clinical and immunological classification, and type of ART. Only VitD consumption showed tendency of association with s25(OH)D (p = 0.064). Individuals analysed in summer/autumn season had a higher s25(OH)D compared to the ones analysed in winter/spring (42.6 ± 14.9 vs. 34.0 ± 11.9, p = 0.011). Although, the frequency of VitD insufficiency did not differ statistically between the groups (summer/autumn 17.9% vs. winter/spring 37.8%, p = 0.102), we suggest to monitor s25(OH)D in seropositive adolescents and young adults, especially during winter/spring months, even in sunny regions.

Activity and migration of Cory's shearwater

I describe some of the features that characterize the activity and migration of Cory’s shearwater during approximately one year. I also explore the influence of Moon, photoperiod, geographic position and life-history stage on the resulting patterns and the periodicity of the latter. I have principally used time series and regression analysis. Its use here is one of the first applications to the analysis of logger data in seabirds. An intriguing finding of this work is the lunar periodicity that pervades the annual cycle of this species.