Trophic interactions in a changing world: modelling aboveground-belowground interactions

The rate and scale of human-driven changes can exert profound impacts on ecosystems, the species that make them up and the services they provide that sustain humanity. Given the speed at which these changes are occurring, one of society's major challenges is to coexist within ecosystems and to manage ecosystem services in a sustainable way. The effect of possible scenarios of global change on ecosystem services can be explored using ecosystem models. Such models should adequately represent ecosystem processes above and below the soil surface (aboveground and belowground) and the interactions between them. We explore possibilities to include such interactions into ecosystem models at scales that range from global to local. At the regional to global scale we suggest to expand the plant functional type concept (aggregating plants into groups according to their physiological attributes) to include functional types of aboveground-belowground interactions. At the scale of discrete plant communities, process-based and organism-oriented models could be combined into "hybrid approaches" that include organism-oriented mechanistic representation of a limited number of trophic interactions in an otherwise process - oriented approach. Under global change the density and activity of organisms determining the processes may change non-linearly and therefore explicit knowledge of the organisms and their responses should ideally be included. At the individual plant scale a common organism-based conceptual model of aboveground-belowground interactions has emerged. This conceptual model facilitates the formulation of research questions to guide experiments aiming to identify patterns that are common within, but differ between, ecosystem types and biomes. Such experiments inform modelling approaches at larger scales. Future ecosystem models should better include this evolving knowledge of common patterns of aboveground-belowground interactions. Improved ecosystem models are necessary toots to reduce the uncertainty in the information that assists us in the sustainable management of our environment in a changing world. (C) 2004 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Food crops in a changing climate

Changes in both the mean and the variability of climate, whether naturally forced, or due to human activities, pose a threat to crop production globally. This paper summarizes discussions of this issue at a meeting of the Royal Society in April 2005. Recent advances in understanding the sensitivity of crops to weather, climate and the levels of particular gases in the atmosphere indicate that the impact of these factors on crop yields and quality may be more severe than previously thought. There is increasing information on the importance to crop yields of extremes of temperature and rainfall at key stages of crop development. Agriculture will itself impact on the climate system and a greater understanding of these feedbacks is needed. Complex models are required to perform simulations of climate variability and change, together with predictions of how crops will respond to different climate variables. Variability of climate, such as that associated with El Niño events, has large impacts on crop production. If skilful predictions of the probability of such events occurring can be made a season or more in advance, then agricultural and other societal responses can be made. The development of strategies to adapt to variations in the current climate may also build resilience to changes in future climate. Africa will be the part of the world that is most vulnerable to climate variability and change, but knowledge of how to use climate information and the regional impacts of climate variability and change in Africa is rudimentary. In order to develop appropriate adaptation strategies globally, predictions about changes in the quantity and quality of food crops need to be considered in the context of the entire food chain from production to distribution, access and utilization. Recommendations for future research priorities are given.

Changing management in Scottish birch woodlands: a potential threat to local invertebrate biodiversity

The silvicultural management of Scottish birch woodlands for timber production is replacing traditional low intensity management practices, such as domesticated livestock grazing. These new management practices involve thinning of existing woodlands to prescribed densities to maximize biomass and timber quality. Although presently infrequent, the wide scale adoption of this practice could affect invertebrate community diversity. The impact of these changes in management on Staphylinidae and Carabidae (Coleoptera) in 19 woodlands in Aberdeenshire, north-east Scotland was investigated. Grazing and logging practices were important determinants of beetle community structure. Woodland area had no effect on any measure of beetle community structure, although isolation did influence the abundance of one carabid species. Changes towards timber production forestry will influence the structure of invertebrate communities, although the scale at which this occurs will determine its effect.

Conserving marginal populations of the foodplant (Impatiens noli-tangere) of an endangered moth (Eustroma reticulatum) in a changing climate

Impatiens noli-tangere is scarce in the UK and probably only native to the Lake District and Wales. It is the sole food plant for the endangered moth Eustroma reticulattum. Significant annual fluctuations in the size of I. noli-tangere populations endanger the continued presence of E. reticulatum in the UK. In this study, variation in population size was monitored across native populations of L noli-tangere in the English Lake District and Wales. In 1998, there was a crash in the population size of all metapopulations in the Lake District but not of those found in Wales. A molecular survey of the genetic affinities of samples in 1999 from both regions and a reference population from Switzerland was performed using AFLP and ISSR analyses. The consensus UPGMA dendrogram and a PCO scatter plot revealed clear differentiation between the populations of L noli-tangere in Wales and those in the Lake District. Most of the genetic variation in the UK (H-T= 0.064) was partitioned between (G(ST) = 0.455) rather than within (H-S = 0.034) regions, inferring little gene flow occurs between regions. There was similar bias towards differentiation between metapopulations in Wales, again consistent with low levels of interpopulation gene flow. This contrasts with far lower levels of differentiation in the Lake District which suggests modest rates of gene flow may occur between populations. It is concluded that in the event of local extinction of sites or populations, reintroductions should be restricted to samples collected from the same region. We then surveyed climatic variables to identify those most likely to cause local extinctions. Climatic correlates of population size were sought from two Lake District metapopulations situated close to a meteorological station. A combination of three climatic variables common to both sites explained 81-84% of the variation in plant number between 1990 and 2001. Projected trends for these climatic variables were used in a Monte Carlo simulation which suggested an increased risk of I. noli-tangere population crashes by 2050 at Coniston Water. but not at Derwentwater. Implications of these findings for practical conservation strategies are explored. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The use of information technology by the quantity surveying professionals in Hong Kong

This paper introduces the findings of a recent study on the use of information technology (IT) among the quantity surveying (QS) organisations in Hong Kong. The study was conducted through a structured questionnaire survey among 18 QS organisations registered in Hong Kong, representing around 53% of the total number of organisations in the profession. The data set generated from this study provided rich information about what information technology the QS profession used, what the perceived benefits and barriers experienced by the users in the industry were. The survey concluded that although IT had been widely used in QS organisations in Hong Kong, it is mainly used to support various individual tasks of the QS services at a basic level, rather than to streamline the production of QS services as a whole through automation. Most of the respondents agreed that IT plays an important role in the QS profession but they had not fully taken advantage of IT to improve their competitive edge in the market. They usually adopted a more passive “wait and see” approach. In addition, very few QS organisations in Hong Kong have a comprehensive policy in promoting the use of IT within the organisations. It is recommended that the QS profession must recognise the importance of IT and take appropriate actions to meet the challenges of ever-changing and competitive market place.

Changing Standards? Children's awareness and knowledge of features of written standard English at ages 10-11

This paper reports the findings of a small-scale research project, which investigated the levels of awareness and knowledge of written standard English of 10- and 11-year-old children in two English primary schools over a six-year period, coinciding with the implementation in the schools of the National Literacy Strategy (NLS). A questionnaire was used to provide quantitative and qualitative data relating to: features of writing which were recognised as standard or non-standard; children's understanding of technical terminology; variations between boys' and girls' performance; and the impact of the NLS over time. The findings reveal variations in levels of recognition of different non-standard features, differences between girls' and boys' recognition, possible examples of language change, but no evidence of a positive impact of the NLS. The implications of these findings are discussed both in terms of changes in educational standards and changes to standard English.