Investigating the effects of predator removal and habitat management on nest success and breeding population size of a farmland passerine: a case study

Passerines are especially vulnerable to predation at the pre-independence stage. Although the role of nest success in British farmland passerine declines is contentious, improvement in nest success through sympathetic management could play a role in their reversal. Because habitat is known to interact with predation, management options for mitigation will need to consider effects of nest predation. We present results from an observational study of a population of Common Blackbird Turdus merula on a farm which has experienced a range of agri-environment and game-management options, including a period with nest predator control, as a case study to address some of these issues. We used an information theoretic model comparison procedure to look for evidence of interactions between habitat and nest predation, and then asked whether habitat management and nest predator abundances could explain population trends at the site through their effects on nest success. Interactions were detected between measures of predator abundance and habitat variables, and these varied with nest stage - habitat within the vicinity of the nest appeared to be important at the egg stage, and nest-placement characteristics were important at the nestling stage. Although predator control appeared to have a positive influence on Blackbird breeding population size, the non-experimental set-up meant we could not eliminate other potential explanations. Variation in breeding population size did not appear to be influenced by variation in nest success alone. Our study demonstrates that observational data can only go so far in detection of such effects, and we discuss how it might be taken further. Agri-environment and game-management techniques are likely to influence nest predation pressure on farmland passerines, but the patterns, mechanisms and importance to population processes remain not wholly understood.

Was the removal of rabbits and house mice from Selvagem Grande beneficial to the breeding of Cory's shearwaters Calonectris diomedea borealis?

The breeding success of Cory's shearwaters Calonectris diomedea borealis at its important Atlantic colony on Selvagern Grande has been monitored periodically at two study plots since 1982. A successful eradication programme was implemented to remove two alien invasive mammals, rabbits Oryctolagus cuniculus and house mice Mus musculus, from the island during 2002. The availability of long-term breeding data for Cory's shearwaters on Selvagern Grande provided a unique opportunity to study the effects of the removal of rabbits and mice on seabird breeding. Annual observation of approximately 400 Cory's nests showed that significantly more birds fledged from both study sites in the five breeding seasons after the eradication than in the 13 seasons prior to it for which reliable breeding data were available. The numbers of young birds present at the time of fledging were an average of 47 and 23% greater than pre-eradication numbers at the two study sites. The eradication of rabbits and mice was simultaneous and, therefore, it was impossible to attribute the increased breeding success of Cory's shearwaters to the removal of one or other species. However, both are known to have adverse impacts on the breeding of nesting seabirds. These observations provide important justification for the implementation of further programmes for the removal of alien invasive mammals from oceanic islands.

Nest spacing and breeding performance in Short-toed Eagle Circaetus gallicus in northeast Greece

Aims: To describe the phenology and breeding success of one of the densest populations of Short-toed Eagle in Europe. Methods All nests in the Dadia-Lefkimi-Soufli forest in northeast Greece were located and visited regularly throughout the 1996-98 breeding seasons. Data on every stage of the breeding cycle were collected and related to among-year variation in the weather conditions during March to June. Results: A total of 58 pairs were located during the three-year study spread across 22 territories (the same territories are usually occupied each year). The nests were evenly spaced (mean of 2.7 km between nests). Adults arrived between mid-March and mid-April. Only one egg per nest was laid. Nestlings fledged on average after 68.9 days. Eagles departed between 8 September and 2 October. Conclusions: Arrival date determines laying date. The population size appears to be stable but the species has a relatively low reproductive rate and takes three to four years to mature, consequently it may be susceptible to stochastic or human-mediated factors.

Demographic models and the management of endangered species: a case study of the critically endangered Seychelles magpie robin

1. Demographic models are assuming an important role in management decisions for endangered species. Elasticity analysis and scope for management analysis are two such applications. Elasticity analysis determines the vital rates that have the greatest impact on population growth. Scope for management analysis examines the effects that feasible management might have on vital rates and population growth. Both methods target management in an attempt to maximize population growth. 2. The Seychelles magpie robin Copsychus sechellarum is a critically endangered island endemic, the population of which underwent significant growth in the early 1990s following the implementation of a recovery programme. We examined how the formal use of elasticity and scope for management analyses might have shaped management in the recovery programme, and assessed their effectiveness by comparison with the actual population growth achieved. 3. The magpie robin population doubled from about 25 birds in 1990 to more than 50 by 1995. A simple two-stage demographic model showed that this growth was driven primarily by a significant increase in the annual survival probability of first-year birds and an increase in the birth rate. Neither the annual survival probability of adults nor the probability of a female breeding at age 1 changed significantly over time. 4. Elasticity analysis showed that the annual survival probability of adults had the greatest impact on population growth. There was some scope to use management to increase survival, but because survival rates were already high (> 0.9) this had a negligible effect on population growth. Scope for management analysis showed that significant population growth could have been achieved by targeting management measures at the birth rate and survival probability of first-year birds, although predicted growth rates were lower than those achieved by the recovery programme when all management measures were in place (i.e. 1992-95). 5. Synthesis and applications. We argue that scope for management analysis can provide a useful basis for management but will inevitably be limited to some extent by a lack of data, as our study shows. This means that identifying perceived ecological problems and designing management to alleviate them must be an important component of endangered species management. The corollary of this is that it will not be possible or wise to consider only management options for which there is a demonstrable ecological benefit. Given these constraints, we see little role for elasticity analysis because, when data are available, a scope for management analysis will always be of greater practical value and, when data are lacking, precautionary management demands that as many perceived ecological problems as possible are tackled.

Invertebrate food supply and breeding success of Mallards Anas platyrhynchos at flooded gravel quarries in southern Britain

Reproductive parameters of Mallard Anas platyrhynchos were investigated in relation to vegetative development, physical characteristics and invertebrate food abundance of a complex of flooded gravel quarries in southern Britain. Breeding pair density over the study area was particularly high with 2.2 pairs km(-1) of shoreline. Across all lakes breeding success was limited to an average of 0.9 ducklings fledged pair(-1), yet an associated study showed that very little of the mortality could be attributed to predation. The results of stepwise multiple regressions indicated that the availability of emerging insects was important in determining the breeding density and breeding success of Mallards rather than habitat structure. We suggest that the overall great availability of suitable nest-sites combined with the variable but unmeasured stocking densities of fish may explain the lack of the latter correlations.

The relative success of recognition-based inference in multichoice decisions

The utility of an "ecologically rational" recognition-based decision rule in multichoice decision problems is analyzed, varying the type of judgment required (greater or lesser). The maximum size and range of a counterintuitive advantage associated with recognition-based judgment (the "less-is-more effect") is identified for a range of cue validity values. Greater ranges of the less-is-more effect occur when participants are asked which is the greatest of to choices (m > 2) than which is the least. Less-is-more effects also have greater range for larger values of in. This implies that the classic two-altemative forced choice task, as studied by Goldstein and Gigerenzer (2002), may not be the most appropriate test case for less-is-more effects.

The temporal impulse response underlying saccadic decisions

Models of perceptual decision making often assume that sensory evidence is accumulated over time in favor of the various possible decisions, until the evidence in favor of one of them outweighs the evidence for the others. Saccadic eye movements are among the most frequent perceptual decisions that the human brain performs. We used stochastic visual stimuli to identify the temporal impulse response underlying saccadic eye movement decisions. Observers performed a contrast search task, with temporal variability in the visual signals. In experiment 1, we derived the temporal filter observers used to integrate the visual information. The integration window was restricted to the first similar to 100 ms after display onset. In experiment 2, we showed that observers cannot perform the task if there is no useful information to distinguish the target from the distractor within this time epoch. We conclude that (1) observers did not integrate sensory evidence up to a criterion level, (2) observers did not integrate visual information up to the start of the saccadic dead time, and (3) variability in saccade latency does not correspond to variability in the visual integration period. Instead, our results support a temporal filter model of saccadic decision making. The temporal impulse response identified by our methods corresponds well with estimates of integration times of V1 output neurons.

Habitat associations and breeding bird community composition within the city of Bristol, UK

Capsule: Different urban breeding bird communities are associated with different habitat types, but, although community species diversity varies significantly, total bird density does not. Aims: To investigate the association between breeding bird communities and habitats within Bristol, UK and how these communities vary in terms of species diversity and total bird abundance. Methods: Breeding density data for 70 species in the metropolitan area of Bristol, UK were subjected to de-trended correspondence analysis to identify the number of different communities present and their indicator species. These data were then used to identify patterns of habitat association with each community and differences in species richness and total bird density. Results: Three communities were identified: a rural community associated with woodland, managed grassland and inland water; a suburban community associated with buildings and residential gardens; and an intermediate community that shared some of these habitat characteristics. Species richness, but not total bird abundance, was lowest in the suburban community. Conclusion: The diversity of species in urban areas appears to be most dependent upon the availability of patches of natural and semi-natural habitats. Residential gardens support fewer species, but those species that are present may be found at high densities.

Variation in acrylamide producing potential in potato: Segregation of the trait in a breeding population

Acrylamide is a neurotoxin and possible carcinogen, and concern has been voiced over human exposure to acrylamide in cooked foods. Processed potato products such as crisps and French fries are often cited as being particularly high in acrylamide. In this manuscript a sub-set of clonal progeny from a specific tetraploid potato breeding population has been assessed for acrylamide forming potential in stored tubers processed into crisps. The clone with the lowest acrylamide content in crisps had both low reducing sugars and asparagine contents. Our data show that, in the segregating breeding population used, both asparagine and reducing sugars levels needed to be taken into account to explain most of the variation in acrylamide and that selection for low levels of both metabolites should be targeted for crop improvement.

Entropy application to improve construction finance decisions

In financial decision-making processes, the adopted weights of the objective functions have significant impacts on the final decision outcome. However, conventional rating and weighting methods exhibit difficulty in deriving appropriate weights for complex decision-making problems with imprecise information. Entropy is a quantitative measure of uncertainty and has been useful in exploring weights of attributes in decision making. A fuzzy and entropy-based mathematical approach is employed to solve the weighting problem of the objective functions in an overall cash-flow model. The multiproject being undertaken by a medium-size construction firm in Hong Kong was used as a real case study to demonstrate the application of entropy. Its application in multiproject cash flow situations is demonstrated. The results indicate that the overall before-tax profit was HK$ 0.11 millions lower after the introduction of appropriate weights. In addition, the best time to invest in new projects arising from positive cash flow was identified to be two working months earlier than the nonweight system.