A lucky break : contingency in the storied worlds of prickly pear

In July 1926, the science behind biological control transitioned from an experimental method to a trusted policy tool in invasive species management. In local storytelling, historical writing and scientific analysis, the ‘lucky’ discovery of the South American Cactoblastis cactorum moth was a watershed moment for scientists concerned with prickly pear, Opuntia and Nopalea spp. Within 10 years, Queensland declared itself pest free. Overnight success is the climax in this tale's narrative arc. Articulating this introduction as a ‘lucky break’ worked to stabilize the narrative of human control in the agricultural environments of post-colonial Queensland, and, in doing so, consolidated biological control as critical management technique. I argue that ‘luck’ elides the assemblage of elements and actors necessary to enable this change, allowing settlers to distance themselves from the responsibility for disruptions associated with nineteenth-century plant transfers. To challenge the rhetorical function of luck, three episodes of contingency are discussed: (1) transnational mobility of things and knowledge, (2) the unpredictable adaptation of insect diet, and; (3) human vectors in industrialized insect–plant complexes. There are important distinguishing differences between luck and contingency, which I frame as a critical analytical tool for understanding the political role of non-humans, in the storied worlds of science in prickly pear land.

Cost-effective suppression and eradication of invasive predators

Introduced predators can have pronounced effects on naïve prey species; thus, predator control is often essential for conservation of threatened native species. Complete eradication of the predator, although desirable, may be elusive in budget-limited situations, whereas predator suppression is more feasible and may still achieve conservation goals. We used a stochastic predator-prey model based on a Lotka-Volterra system to investigate the cost-effectiveness of predator control to achieve prey conservation. We compared five control strategies: immediate eradication, removal of a constant number of predators (fixed-number control), removal of a constant proportion of predators (fixed-rate control), removal of predators that exceed a predetermined threshold (upper-trigger harvest), and removal of predators whenever their population falls below a lower predetermined threshold (lower-trigger harvest). We looked at the performance of these strategies when managers could always remove the full number of predators targeted by each strategy, subject to budget availability. Under this assumption immediate eradication reduced the threat to the prey population the most. We then examined the effect of reduced management success in meeting removal targets, assuming removal is more difficult at low predator densities. In this case there was a pronounced reduction in performance of the immediate eradication, fixed-number, and lower-trigger strategies. Although immediate eradication still yielded the highest expected minimum prey population size, upper-trigger harvest yielded the lowest probability of prey extinction and the greatest return on investment (as measured by improvement in expected minimum population size per amount spent). Upper-trigger harvest was relatively successful because it operated when predator density was highest, which is when predator removal targets can be more easily met and the effect of predators on the prey is most damaging. This suggests that controlling predators only when they are most abundant is the "best" strategy when financial resources are limited and eradication is unlikely. © 2008 Society for Conservation Biology.

Optimal eradication: When to stop looking for an invasive plant

The notion of being sure that you have completely eradicated an invasive species is fanciful because of imperfect detection and persistent seed banks. Eradication is commonly declared either on an ad hoc basis, on notions of seed bank longevity, or on setting arbitrary thresholds of 1% or 5% confidence that the species is not present. Rather than declaring eradication at some arbitrary level of confidence, we take an economic approach in which we stop looking when the expected costs outweigh the expected benefits. We develop theory that determines the number of years of absent surveys required to minimize the net expected cost. Given detection of a species is imperfect, the optimal stopping time is a trade-off between the cost of continued surveying and the cost of escape and damage if eradication is declared too soon. A simple rule of thumb compares well to the exact optimal solution using stochastic dynamic programming. Application of the approach to the eradication programme of Helenium amarum reveals that the actual stopping time was a precautionary one given the ranges for each parameter. © 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Optimizing search strategies for invasive pests: Learn before you leap

Strategic searching for invasive pests presents a formidable challenge for conservation managers. Limited funding can necessitate choosing between surveying many sites cursorily, or focussing intensively on fewer sites. While existing knowledge may help to target more likely sites, e.g. with species distribution models (maps), this knowledge is not flawless and improving it also requires management investment. 2.In a rare example of trading-off action against knowledge gain, we combine search coverage and accuracy, and its future improvement, within a single optimisation framework. More specifically we examine under which circumstances managers should adopt one of two search-and-control strategies (cursory or focussed), and when they should divert funding to improving knowledge, making better predictive maps that benefit future searches. 3.We use a family of Receiver Operating Characteristic curves to reflect the quality of maps that direct search efforts. We demonstrate our framework by linking these to a logistic model of invasive spread such as that for the red imported fire ant Solenopsis invicta in south-east Queensland, Australia. 4.Cursory widespread searching is only optimal if the pest is already widespread or knowledge is poor, otherwise focussed searching exploiting the map is preferable. For longer management timeframes, eradication is more likely if funds are initially devoted to improving knowledge, even if this results in a short-term explosion of the pest population. 5.Synthesis and applications. By combining trade-offs between knowledge acquisition and utilization, managers can better focus - and justify - their spending to achieve optimal results in invasive control efforts. This framework can improve the efficiency of any ecological management that relies on predicting occurrence. © 2010 The Authors. Journal of Applied Ecology © 2010 British Ecological Society.

The doomsday vault: Seed banks, food security, and climate change

"It could easily provide the back-drop for a James Bond movie. Deep inside a mountain near the North Pole, down a fortified tunnel, and behind airlocked doors in a vault frozen to -18 degrees Celsius, scientists are squirreling away millions of seed samples. The samples constitute the very foundation of agriculture, the biological diversity needed so the world's major food crops can adapt to the next pest or disease, or to climate change. It's little wonder that the Svalbard Global Seed Vault has captured the public's imagination more than almost any agricultural topic in recent years. Popular press reports about the ‘Doomsday Vault,’ however, typically mask the complexity of the endeavor and, if anything, underestimate its practical utility." Cary Fowler This chapter considers the use of seed banks to address concerns about intellectual property, climate change and food security. It has a number of themes. First of all, it is interested in the use of ‘Big Science’ projects to address pressing global scientific concerns and Millennium Development Goals. Second, it highlights the increasing use of banks as a means of managing both property and intellectual property across a wide range of fields of agriculture and biotechnology. Third, it considers the linkage of intellectual property, access to genetic resources and benefit sharing. There are a variety of positions in this debate. Some see requirements in respect of access to genetic resources and benefit sharing as an inconvenient burden for science and commerce. Others defend access to genetic resources and benefit sharing as meaningful and productive. Those inclined to somewhat more conspiratorial views suggest that access to genetic resources and benefit sharing are a ruse to facilitate biopiracy. This chapter has a number of components. Section I focuses upon the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) network – often raised as a model for Climate Innovation Centres. Section II considers the Svalbard Global Seed Vault – the so-called Doomsday Vault. After a consideration of the World Summit on Food Security in 2009, it is concluded in this chapter that any future international agreement on climate change needs to address intellectual property, plant genetic resources and food security.

Mating compatibility between bactrocera invadens and bactrocera dorsalis (Diptera: Tephritidae)

The invasive fruit fly, Bactrocera invadens Drew, Tsuruta & White, is a highly polyphagous fruit pest that occurs predominantly in Africa yet has its origins in the Indian subcontinent. It is extremely morphologically and genetically similar to the Oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel); as such the specific relationship between these two species is unresolved. We assessed prezygotic compatibility between B. dorsalis and B. invadens using standardized field cage mating tests, which have proven effectiveness in tephritid cryptic species studies. These tests were followed by an assessment of postzygotic compatibility by examining egg viability, larval and pupal survival, and sex ratios of offspring produced from parental and subsequent F1 crosses to examine for hybrid breakdown as predicted under a two-species hypothesis. B. dorsalis was sourced from two countries (Pakistan and China), and each population was compared with B. invadens from its type locality of Kenya. B. invadens mated randomly with B. dorsalis from both localities, and there were generally high levels of hybrid viability and survival resulting from parental and F1 crosses. Furthermore, all but one hybrid cross resulted in equal sex ratios, with the single deviation in favor of males and contrary to expectations under Haldane's rule. These data support the hypothesis that B. dorsalis and B. invadens represent the same biological species, an outcome that poses significant implications for pest management and international trade for sub-Saharan Africa.

Exposure risk assessment and evaluation of the best management practice for controlling pesticide runoff from paddy fields. Part 2: Model simulation for the herbicide pretilachlor

BACKGROUND: Monitoring studies revealed high concentrations of pesticides in the drainage canal of paddy fields. It is important to have a way to predict these concentrations in different management scenarios as an assessment tool. A simulation model for predicting the pesticide concentration in a paddy block (PCPF-B) was evaluated and then used to assess the effect of water management practices for controlling pesticide runoff from paddy fields. RESULTS: The PCPF-B model achieved an acceptable performance. The model was applied to a constrained probabilistic approach using the Monte Carlo technique to evaluate the best management practices for reducing runoff of pretilachlor into the canal. The probabilistic model predictions using actual data of pesticide use and hydrological data in the canal showed that the water holding period (WHP) and the excess water storage depth (EWSD) effectively reduced the loss and concentration of pretilachlor from paddy fields to the drainage canal. The WHP also reduced the timespan of pesticide exposure in the drainage canal. CONCLUSIONS: It is recommended that: (1) the WHP be applied for as long as possible, but for at least 7 days, depending on the pesticide and field conditions; (2) an EWSD greater than 2 cm be maintained to store substantial rainfall in order to prevent paddy runoff, especially during the WHP.

Development of multi-rotor localised surveillance using multi-spectral sensors for plant biosecurity

This report describes a proof of concept for multi-rotor localised surveillance using a multi-spectral sensor for plant biosecurity applications. A literature review was conducted on previous applications using airborne multispectral imaging for plant biosecurity purposes. A ready built platform was purchased and modified in order to fit and provide suitable clearance for a Tetracam Mini-MCA multispectral camera. The appropriate risk management documents were developed allowing the platform and the multi-spectral camera to be tested extensively. However, due to technical difficulties with the platform the Mini- MCA was not mounted to the platform. Once a suitable platform is developed, future extensions can be conducted into the suitability of the Mini-MCA for airborne surveillance of Australian crops.

Induced Resistance: Potential for Control of Postharvest Diseases of Horticultural Crops

Fortunately, plants have developed highly effective mechanisms with which to defend themselves when attacked by potentially disease-causing microorganisms. If not, then they would succumb to the many pathogenic fungi, bacteria, viruses, nematodes and insect pests, and disease would prevail. These natural defence systems of plants can be deliberately activated to provide some protection against the major pathogens responsible for causing severe yield losses in agricultural and horticultural crops. This is the basis of what is known as ‘induced’ or ‘acquired’ disease resistance in plants. Although the phenomenon of induced resistance has been known amongst plant pathologists for over 100 years, its inclusion into pest and disease management programmes has been a relatively recent development, ie. within the last 5 years. This review will discuss very briefly some of the characteristics of the induced resistance phenomenon, outline some of the advantages and limitations to its implementation and provide some examples within a postharvest pathology context. Finally some approaches being investigated by the fruit pathology team at DPI Indooroopilly and collaborators will be outlined.

Pesticide residues in food - acute dietary exposure

Consumer risk assessment is a crucial step in the regulatory approval of pesticide use on food crops. Recently, an additional hurdle has been added to the formal consumer risk assessment process with the introduction of short-term intake or exposure assessment and a comparable short-term toxicity reference, the acute reference dose. Exposure to residues during one meal or over one day is important for short-term or acute intake. Exposure in the short term can be substantially higher than average because the consumption of a food on a single occasion can be very large compared with typical long-term or mean consumption and the food may have a much larger residue than average. Furthermore, the residue level in a single unit of a fruit or vegetable may be higher by a factor (defined as the variability factor, which we have shown to be typically ×3 for the 97.5th percentile unit) than the average residue in the lot. Available marketplace data and supervised residue trial data are examined in an investigation of the variability of residues in units of fruit and vegetables. A method is described for estimating the 97.5th percentile value from sets of unit residue data. Variability appears to be generally independent of the pesticide, the crop, crop unit size and the residue level. The deposition of pesticide on the individual unit during application is probably the most significant factor. The diets used in the calculations ideally come from individual and household surveys with enough consumers of each specific food to determine large portion sizes. The diets should distinguish the different forms of a food consumed, eg canned, frozen or fresh, because the residue levels associated with the different forms may be quite different. Dietary intakes may be calculated by a deterministic method or a probabilistic method. In the deterministic method the intake is estimated with the assumptions of large portion consumption of a ‘high residue’ food (high residue in the sense that the pesticide was used at the highest recommended label rate, the crop was harvested at the smallest interval after treatment and the residue in the edible portion was the highest found in any of the supervised trials in line with these use conditions). The deterministic calculation also includes a variability factor for those foods consumed as units (eg apples, carrots) to allow for the elevated residue in some single units which may not be seen in composited samples. In the probabilistic method the distribution of dietary consumption and the distribution of possible residues are combined in repeated probabilistic calculations to yield a distribution of possible residue intakes. Additional information such as percentage commodity treated and combination of residues from multiple commodities may be incorporated into probabilistic calculations. The IUPAC Advisory Committee on Crop Protection Chemistry has made 11 recommendations relating to acute dietary exposure.

Developments in phosphine resistance in China and possible implications for Australia

Resistance to phosphine was characterised in strains of rice weevil, Sirophilus oryzae, and the psocids Liposcelis entomophila and L. decolor from China and Australia. Mixed-age cultures (containing all life stages) of insects were tested using a flow-through apparatus. The criterion of response was 'time to population extinction' defined as the exposure period, in days, at which 100% mortality of adults and no live progeny were achieved. Chinese S. oryzae took 11 and 7 days for population extinction at 200 and 700 ppm phosphine, respectively, compared with the Australian strain, which was controlled in 7 and 5 days, respectively. Similarly, the Chinese strains L. Enfornophila and L. decolor were generally more difficult to control than the corresponding Australian strains. The Chinese strains of L. decolor showed resistance levels stronger than any grain storage insect pest species so far detected in Australia. This research allows us to evaluate the likely significance of potential new resistance to the Australian grain industry and to prepare effective fumigation dosages and resistance management strategies to combat new strong resistances before they emerge here.

Recruitment and loss of juvenile stages of Helicoverpa spp. (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) on contaminant plants in chickpea crops

The hypothesis that contaminant plants growing amongst chickpea serve as Helicoverpa sinks by diverting oviposition pressure away from the main crop was tested under field conditions. Gain (recruitment) and loss (presumed mortality) of juvenile stages of Helicoverpa spp. on contaminant faba bean and wheat plants growing in chickpea plots were quantified on a daily basis over a 12-d period. The possibility of posteclosion movement of larvae from the contaminants to the surrounding chickpea crop was examined. Estimated total loss of the census population varied from 80 to 84% across plots and rows. The loss of brown eggs (40–47%) contributed most to the overall loss estimate, followed by loss of white eggs (27–35%) and larvae (6–9%). The cumulative number of individuals entering the white and brown egg and larval stages over the census period ranged from 15 to 58, 10–48 and 1–6 per m row, respectively. The corresponding estimates of mean stage-specific loss, expressed as a percentage of individuals entering the stage, ranged from 52 to 57% for white eggs, 87–108% for brown eggs and 71–87% for first-instar larvae. Mean larval density on chickpea plants in close proximity to the contaminant plants did not exceed the baseline larval density on chickpea further away from the contaminants across rows and plots. The results support the hypothesis that contaminant plants in chickpea plots serve as Helicoverpa sinks by diverting egg pressure from the main crop and elevating mortality of juvenile stages. Deliberate contamination of chickpea crops with other plant species merits further investigation as a cultural pest management strategy for Helicoverpa spp.

A sampling technique for two-spotted mite in papaya

Two-spotted mite, Tetranychus urticae Koch, was until recently regarded as a minor and infrequent pest of papaya in Queensland through the dry late winter/early summer months. The situation has changed over the past 4-5 years, so that now some growers consider spider mites significant pests all year round. This altered pest status corresponded with a substantial increase in the use of fungicides to control black spot (Asperisporium caricae). A project was initiated in 1998 to examine the potential reasons for escalating mite problems in commercially-grown papaya, which included regular sampling over a 2 year period for mites, mite damage and beneficial arthropods on a number of farms on the wet tropical coast and drier Atherton Tableland. Differences in soil type, papaya variety, chemical use and some agronomic practices were included in this assessment. Monthly visits were made to each site where 20 randomly-selected plants from each of 2 papaya lines (yellow and red types) were surveyed. Three leaves were selected from each plant, one from each of the bottom, middle and top strata of leaves. The numbers of mobile predators were recorded, along with visual estimates of the percentage and age of mite damage on each leaf. Leaves were then sprayed with hairspray to fix the mites and immature predators to the leaf surface. Four leaf disks, 25 mm in diameter, were then punched from each leaf into a 50 ml storage container with a purpose-built disk-cutting tool. Disks from each leaf position were separated by tissue paper, within the container. On return to the laboratory, each leaf disk was scrutinised under a binocular microscope to determine the numbers of two-spotted mites and eggs, predatory mites and eggs, and the immature stages of predatory insects (mainly Stethorus, Halmus and lacewings). A total of 2160 leaf disks have been examined each month. All data have been entered into an Access database to facilitate comparisons between sites.