Evaluation of two hybrid metric-conceptual models, for simulating phosphorus transfer from agricultural land in the river enborne, a lowland UK catchment

Across Europe, elevated phosphorus (P) concentrations in lowland rivers have made them particularly susceptible to eutrophication. This is compounded in southern and central UK by increasing pressures on water resources, which may be further enhanced by the potential effects of climate change. The EU Water Framework Directive requires an integrated approach to water resources management at the catchment scale and highlights the need for modelling tools that can distinguish relative contributions from multiple nutrient sources and are consistent with the information content of the available data. Two such models are introduced and evaluated within a stochastic framework using daily flow and total phosphorus concentrations recorded in a clay catchment typical of many areas of the lowland UK. Both models disaggregate empirical annual load estimates, derived from land use data, as a function of surface/near surface runoff, generated using a simple conceptual rainfall-runoff model. Estimates of the daily load from agricultural land, together with those from baseflow and point sources, feed into an in-stream routing algorithm. The first model assumes constant concentrations in runoff via surface/near surface pathways and incorporates an additional P store in the river-bed sediments, depleted above a critical discharge, to explicitly simulate resuspension. The second model, which is simpler, simulates P concentrations as a function of surface/near surface runoff, thus emphasising the influence of non-point source loads during flow peaks and mixing of baseflow and point sources during low flows. The temporal consistency of parameter estimates and thus the suitability of each approach is assessed dynamically following a new approach based on Monte-Carlo analysis. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Receptivity to social research by the CGIAR

This paper analyses the way the CGIAR system has incorporated social research in its agenda. Since 1995, the social science staff capacity in the CGIAR has decreased by 24%, and the overall balance of social science research is still significantly tilted away from the core germplasm enhancement, production systems/natural resources management, and technology adoption work - the 'bread and butter' of technology generation and development effort - toward ex-ante and ex-post activities, Further, the bulk of the social science research has low social research content despite the significant expansion of the CGIAR initial goal of increasing the proverbial pile of rice' to poverty alleviation and sustainable food security. The paper concludes that a concerted effort is now required to mainstream social research in the CGIAR system, and this cannot occur without the full support of the CGIAR donors, the CGIAR senior managers, and the centre boards and executive staff.

Chatterbox challenge as a test-bed for synthetic emotions

Chatterbox Challenge is an annual web-based contest for artificial conversational systems, ACE. The 2010 instantiation was the tenth consecutive contest held between March and June in the 60th year following the publication of Alan Turing’s influential disquisition ‘computing machinery and intelligence’. Loosely based on Turing’s viva voca interrogator-hidden witness imitation game, a thought experiment to ascertain a machine’s capacity to respond satisfactorily to unrestricted questions, the contest provides a platform for technology comparison and evaluation. This paper provides an insight into emotion content in the entries since the 2005 Chatterbox Challenge. The authors find that synthetic textual systems, none of which are backed by academic or industry funding, are, on the whole and more than half a century since Weizenbaum’s natural language understanding experiment, little further than Eliza in terms of expressing emotion in dialogue. This may be a failure on the part of the academic AI community for ignoring the Turing test as an engineering challenge.

Power, nature and neoliberalism: the political ecology of water in Chile

Since the 1990s, international water sector reforms have centred heavily on economic and market approaches. In regard to water resources management, tradable water rights have been promoted, often supported by the neoliberal model adopted in Chile. Chile's 1981 Water Code was reformed to comprise a system of water rights that could be freely traded with few restrictions. International financial institutions have embraced the Chilean model, claiming that it results in more efficient water use, and potentially fosters social and environmental benefits. However, in Chile the Water Code is deeply contested. It has been criticised for being too permissive and has produced a number of problems in practice. Moreover, attempts to modify it have become the focus of a lengthy polemic debate. This paper employs a political ecology perspective to explore the socio-environmental outcomes of water management in Chile, drawing on a case study of agriculture in the semi-arid Norte Chico. The case illustrates how large-scale farmers exert greater control over water, while peasant farmers have increasingly less access. I argue that these outcomes are facilitated by the mode of water management implemented within the framework of the Water Code. Through this preliminary examination of social equity and the environmental aspects of water resources management in Chile, I suggest that the omission of these issues from the international debates on water rights markets is a cause for concern.

Healthcare providers in the English National Health Service: public, private or hybrids?

In recent years it has been noted that boundaries between public and private providers of many types of welfare have become blurred. This paper uses three dimensions of publicness to analyse this blurring of boundaries in relation to providers of healthcare in England. The authors find that, although most care is still funded and provided by the state, there are significant additional factors in respect of ownership and social control which indicate that many English healthcare providers are better understood as hybrids. Furthermore, the authors raise concerns about the possible deleterious effects of diminishing aspects of publicness on English healthcare. The most important of these is a decrease in accountability

The invisible hand guiding technology: crossing the boundary of technology

This paper examines attitudes towards Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) technology and explores the wider concerns of the ever increasing prospect of social tagging. Capturing vignettes and narratives from a sample of study participants, the paper highlights concerns about adopting RFID implements now and in the future. The views captured through qualitative methodology act as the platform for a wider argument concerning the human rights and privacy intrusion concerns over IT applications. Intended as an insight into the reality of technology impact, this paper lists a series of questions for leaders to consider over matters of human rights specifically concerning RFID adoption. The authors conclude that caution, naivety and fear are the underlying reasons for society accepting RFIDs without question and that RFIDs will be a part of everyday working and domestic life in the near future.

Efficiency of evolutionary algorithms in water network pipe sizing

The pipe sizing of water networks via evolutionary algorithms is of great interest because it allows the selection of alternative economical solutions that meet a set of design requirements. However, available evolutionary methods are numerous, and methodologies to compare the performance of these methods beyond obtaining a minimal solution for a given problem are currently lacking. A methodology to compare algorithms based on an efficiency rate (E) is presented here and applied to the pipe-sizing problem of four medium-sized benchmark networks (Hanoi, New York Tunnel, GoYang and R-9 Joao Pessoa). E numerically determines the performance of a given algorithm while also considering the quality of the obtained solution and the required computational effort. From the wide range of available evolutionary algorithms, four algorithms were selected to implement the methodology: a PseudoGenetic Algorithm (PGA), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), a Harmony Search and a modified Shuffled Frog Leaping Algorithm (SFLA). After more than 500,000 simulations, a statistical analysis was performed based on the specific parameters each algorithm requires to operate, and finally, E was analyzed for each network and algorithm. The efficiency measure indicated that PGA is the most efficient algorithm for problems of greater complexity and that HS is the most efficient algorithm for less complex problems. However, the main contribution of this work is that the proposed efficiency ratio provides a neutral strategy to compare optimization algorithms and may be useful in the future to select the most appropriate algorithm for different types of optimization problems.