Emulation of random output simulators

Computer models, or simulators, are widely used in a range of scientific fields to aid understanding of the processes involved and make predictions. Such simulators are often computationally demanding and are thus not amenable to statistical analysis. Emulators provide a statistical approximation, or surrogate, for the simulators accounting for the additional approximation uncertainty. This thesis develops a novel sequential screening method to reduce the set of simulator variables considered during emulation. This screening method is shown to require fewer simulator evaluations than existing approaches. Utilising the lower dimensional active variable set simplifies subsequent emulation analysis. For random output, or stochastic, simulators the output dispersion, and thus variance, is typically a function of the inputs. This work extends the emulator framework to account for such heteroscedasticity by constructing two new heteroscedastic Gaussian process representations and proposes an experimental design technique to optimally learn the model parameters. The design criterion is an extension of Fisher information to heteroscedastic variance models. Replicated observations are efficiently handled in both the design and model inference stages. Through a series of simulation experiments on both synthetic and real world simulators, the emulators inferred on optimal designs with replicated observations are shown to outperform equivalent models inferred on space-filling replicate-free designs in terms of both model parameter uncertainty and predictive variance.

Quantifying simulator discrepancy in discrete-time dynamical simulators

When making predictions with complex simulators it can be important to quantify the various sources of uncertainty. Errors in the structural specification of the simulator, for example due to missing processes or incorrect mathematical specification, can be a major source of uncertainty, but are often ignored. We introduce a methodology for inferring the discrepancy between the simulator and the system in discrete-time dynamical simulators. We assume a structural form for the discrepancy function, and show how to infer the maximum-likelihood parameter estimates using a particle filter embedded within a Monte Carlo expectation maximization (MCEM) algorithm. We illustrate the method on a conceptual rainfall-runoff simulator (logSPM) used to model the Abercrombie catchment in Australia. We assess the simulator and discrepancy model on the basis of their predictive performance using proper scoring rules. This article has supplementary material online. © 2011 International Biometric Society.

Type 2 diabetes and dog walking:patients' longitudinal perspectives about implementing and sustaining physical activity

Background - Physical activity is particularly important for people with type 2 diabetes, as evidence suggests that any reduction in sedentary time is good for metabolic health. Aim - To explore type 2 diabetes patients' talk about implementing and sustaining physical activity. Design of study - Longitudinal, qualitative study using repeat in-depth interviews with 20 patients over 4 years following clinical diagnosis. Setting - Patients were recruited from 16 general practices and three hospitals across Lothian, Scotland. Results - Discussion, and salience, of physical activity was marginal in patient accounts of their diabetes management. Patients claimed to have only received vague and non-specific guidance about physical activity from health professionals, and emphasised a perceived lack of interest and encouragement. Aside from walking, physical activities which were adopted tended to attenuate over time. Patients' accounts revealed how walking a dog assisted this kind of activity maintenance over time. Three main themes are highlighted in the analysis: 1) incidental walking; 2) incremental physical activity gains; and 3) augmenting physical activity maintenance. The problems arising from walking without a dog (for example, lack of motivation) are also examined. Conclusion - Asking patients about pet preferences might seem tangential to medical interactions. However, encouraging dog walking or identifying another interest that promotes a regular commitment to undertake physical activity may yield long-term health benefits.

Assessing walking limitations in stroke survivors:are self-reports and proxy-reports interchangeable?

Objective: To examine the extent to which proxy-report measures adequately assess walking limitations and are interchangeable with self-report measures in stroke survivors. Design and Participants: Self-report, proxy-report, and observed performance measures of walking limitations were compared cross-sectionally on 3 occasions following the discharge from hospital of 101 stroke survivors. Correlations between measures, differences between mean scores, and agreement of self- and proxy reports were analyzed. Results and Conclusions: Self- and proxy-report measures correlated significantly with each other and with observed performance measures; differences between mean scores were not found. Agreement between individual self- and proxy-report pairs was poor, however, indicating that freely substituting proxy-report data for self-report data when self-report data are unavailable is inappropriate.

The redoxomics of PTEN: walking a fine line between damage and signaling:mass spectrometry-based approaches to study the effect of oxidation on PTEN function, structure, and protein-protein interactions

The research described in this PhD thesis focuses on proteomics approaches to study the effect of oxidation on the modification status and protein-protein interactions of PTEN, a redox-sensitive phosphatase involved in a number of cellular processes including metabolism, apoptosis, cell proliferation, and survival. While direct evidence of a redox regulation of PTEN and its downstream signaling has been reported, the effect of cellular oxidative stress or direct PTEN oxidation on PTEN structure and interactome is still poorly defined. In a first study, GST-tagged PTEN was directly oxidized over a range of hypochlorous acid (HOCl) concentration, assayed for phosphatase activity, and oxidative post-translational modifications (oxPTMs) were quantified using LC-MS/MS-based label-free methods. In a second study, GSTtagged PTEN was prepared in a reduced and reversibly H2O2-oxidized form, immobilized on a resin support and incubated with HCT116 cell lysate to capture PTEN interacting proteins, which were analyzed by LC-MS/MS and comparatively quantified using label-free methods. In parallel experiments, HCT116 cells transfected with a GFP-tagged PTEN were treated with H2O2 and PTENinteracting proteins immunoprecipitated using standard methods. Several high abundance HOCl-induced oxPTMs were mapped, including those taking place at amino acids known to be important for PTEN phosphatase activity and protein-protein interactions, such as Met35, Tyr155, Tyr240 and Tyr315. A PTEN redox interactome was also characterized, which identified a number of PTEN-interacting proteins that vary with the reversible inactivation of PTEN caused by H2O2 oxidation. These included new PTEN interactors as well as the redox proteins peroxiredoxin-1 (Prdx1) and thioredoxin (Trx), which are known to be involved in the recycling of PTEN active site following H2O2-induced reversible inactivation. The results suggest that the oxidative modification of PTEN causes functional alterations in PTEN structure and interactome, with fundamental implications for the PTEN signaling role in many cellular processes, such as those involved in the pathophysiology of disease and ageing.

Motivational, volitional and multiple goal predictors of walking in people with type 2 diabetes

Acknowledgment MN's PhD scholarship was provided by Ministry of Health and Medical Education (Islamic Republic of Iran). This study was funded by the University of Aberdeen. FFS is funded by Fuse, the UK Clinical Research Collaboration Centre of Excellence for Translational Research in Public Health. The researchers gratefully acknowledge all the Type 2 diabetic patients and their household members who participated in the study for their contribution to this study; without them there would be no data. The researchers gratefully acknowledge the SDRN for providing the list of Type 2 diabetes and helping for sampling.

Motivational, volitional and multiple goal predictors of walking in people with type 2 diabetes

Acknowledgment MN's PhD scholarship was provided by Ministry of Health and Medical Education (Islamic Republic of Iran). This study was funded by the University of Aberdeen. FFS is funded by Fuse, the UK Clinical Research Collaboration Centre of Excellence for Translational Research in Public Health. The researchers gratefully acknowledge all the Type 2 diabetic patients and their household members who participated in the study for their contribution to this study; without them there would be no data. The researchers gratefully acknowledge the SDRN for providing the list of Type 2 diabetes and helping for sampling.

Woman walking down the street

Inscriptions: Verso: [stamped] Photograph by Freda Leinwand. [463 West Street, Studio 229G, New York, NY 10014].

Accounting for residential and non-residential environments to measure contextual effects on health behavior : the case of recreational walking behavior

Thèse réalisée en cotutelle entre l'Université de Montréal et l'Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris 06, Sorbonne Universités.

Walking in hospital is associated with a shorter length of stay in older medical inpatients

Evidence suggests that inactivity during a hospital stay is associated with poor health outcomes in older medical inpatients. We aimed to estimate the associations of average daily step-count (walking) in hospital with physical performance and length of stay in this population. Medical in-patients aged ⩾65 years, premorbidly mobile, with an anticipated length of stay ⩾3 d, were recruited. Measurements included average daily step-count, continuously recorded until discharge, or for a maximum of 7 d (Stepwatch Activity Monitor); co-morbidity (CIRS-G); frailty (SHARE F-I); and baseline and end-of-study physical performance (short physical performance battery). Linear regression models were used to estimate associations between step-count and end-of-study physical performance or length of stay. Length of stay was log transformed in the first model, and step-count was log transformed in both models. Similar models were used to adjust for potential confounders. Data from 154 patients (mean 77 years, SD 7.4) were analysed. The unadjusted models estimated for each unit increase in the natural log of stepcount, the natural log of length of stay decreased by 0.18 (95% CI −0.27 to −0.09). After adjustment of potential confounders, while the strength of the inverse association was attenuated, it remained significant (βlog(steps) = −0.15, 95%CI −0.26 to −0.03). The back-transformed result suggested that a 50% increase in step-count was associated with a 6% shorter length of stay. There was no apparent association between step-count and end-of-study physical performance once baseline physical performance was adjusted for. The results indicate that step-count is independently associated with hospital length of stay, and merits further investigation.

Walking with God through Nature: An Examination of John Flavel’s Behavioural Instructions on Matters Related to Christian Piety

John Flavel was a Reformed Puritan of the seventeenth-century who wrote a series of devotional guides that offered instructions drawn from Christian mystical traditions on how to improve religious activities as a means of ecstatically encountering God. Evaluating the efficacy of these instructions from a scientifically-based behavioural perspective, this study has found that Flavel’s techniques were likely helpful to his readers in facilitating socially normative ecstatic experiences through ordinary Christian practice. Furthermore, discovering that Flavel promoted the use of these techniques for engaging with ecological materials in the wilderness and country-side, this essay proposes that Flavel introduced his readers to effectual manners that could help them ecstatically encounter God during the practice of meditational nature-based walks.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW AND META-ANALYSIS: EFFECTS OF WALKING EXERCISE IN CHRONIC MUSCULOSKELETAL PAIN

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW AND META-ANALYSIS: EFFECTS OF WALKING EXERCISE IN CHRONIC MUSCULOSKELETAL PAIN O'Connor S.R.1, Tully M.A.2, Ryan B.3, Baxter D.G.3, Bradley J.M.1, McDonough S.M.11University of Ulster, Health & Rehabilitation Sciences Research Institute, Newtownabbey, United Kingdom, 2Queen's University, UKCRC Centre of Excellence for Public Health (NI), Belfast, United Kingdom, 3University of Otago, Centre for Physiotherapy Research, Dunedin, New ZealandPurpose: To examine the effects of walking exercise on pain and self-reported function in adults with chronic musculoskeletal pain.Relevance: Chronic musculoskeletal pain is a major cause of morbidity, exerting a substantial influence on long-term health status and overall quality of life. Current treatment recommendations advocate various aerobic exercise interventions for such conditions. Walking may represent an ideal form of exercise due to its relatively low impact. However, there is currently limited evidence for its effectiveness.Participants: Not applicable.Methods: A comprehensive search strategy was undertaken by two independent reviewers according to the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (PRISMA) and the recommendations of the Cochrane Musculoskeletal Review Group. Six electronic databases (Medline, CINAHL, PsychINFO, PEDro, Sport DISCUS and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials) were searched for relevant papers published up to January 2010 using MeSH terms. All randomised or non-randomised studies published in full were considered for inclusion. Studies were required to include adults aged 18 years or over with a diagnosis of chronic low back pain, osteoarthritis or fibromyalgia. Studies were excluded if they involved peri-operative or post-operative interventions or did not include a comparative, non exercise or non-walking exercise control group. The U.S. Preventative Services Task Force system was used to assess methodological quality. Data for pain and self-reported function were extracted and converted to a score out of 100.Analysis: Data were pooled and analyzed using RevMan (v.5.0.24). Statistical heterogeneity was assessed using the X2 and I2 test statistics. A random effects model was used to calculate the mean differences and 95% CIs. Data were analyzed by length of final follow-up which was categorized as short (≤8 weeks post randomisation), mid (2-12 months) or long-term (>12 months).Results: A total of 4324 articles were identified and twenty studies (1852 participants) meeting the inclusion criteria were included in the review. Overall, studies were judged to be of at least fair methodological quality. The most common sources of likely bias were identified as lack of concealed allocation and failure to adequately address incomplete data. Data from 12 studies were suitable for meta-analysis. Walking led to reductions in pain at short (<8 weeks post randomisation) (-8.44 [-14.54, -2.33]) and mid-term (>8 weeks - 12 month) follow-up (-9.28 [-16.34, -2.22]). No effect was observed for long-term (>12 month) data (-2.49 [-7.62, 2.65]). For function, between group differences were observed for short (-11.57 [-16.06, -7.08]) and mid-term data (-13.26 [-16.91, -9.62]). A smaller effect was also observed at long-term follow-up (-5.60 [-7.70, -3.50]).Conclusions: Walking interventions were associated with statistically significant improvements in pain and function at short and mid-term follow-up. Long-term data were limited but indicated that these effects do not appear to be maintained beyond twelve months.Implications: Walking may be an effective form of exercise for individuals with chronic musculoskeletal pain. However, further research is required which examines longer term follow-up and dose-response issues in this population.Key-words: 1. Walking exercise 2. Musculoskeletal pain 3. Systematic reviewFunding acknowledgements: Department of Employment and Learning, Northern Ireland.Ethics approval: Not applicable.

Functional management of ankle sprains: what volume and intensity of walking is undertaken in the first week

BACKGROUND:
Acute ankle sprains are usually managed functionally, with advice to undertake progressive weight-bearing and walking. Mechanical loading is an important modular of tissue repair; therefore, the clinical effectiveness of walking after ankle sprain may be dose dependent. The intensity, magnitude and duration of load associated with current functional treatments for ankle sprain are unclear.
AIM:
To describe physical activity (PA) in the first week after ankle sprain and to compare results with a healthy control group.
METHODS:
Participants (16-65 years) with an acute ankle sprain were randomised into two groups (standard or exercise). Both groups were advised to apply ice and compression, and walk within the limits of pain. The exercise group undertook additional therapeutic exercises. PA was measured using an activPAL accelerometer, worn for 7 days after injury. Comparisons were made with a non-injured control group.
RESULTS:
The standard group were significantly less active (1.2 ± 0.4 h activity/day; 5621 ± 2294 steps/day) than the exercise (1.7 ± 0 .7 h/day, p=0.04; 7886 ± 3075 steps/day, p=0.03) and non-injured control groups (1.7 ± 0.4 h/day, p=0.02; 8844 ± 2185 steps/day, p=0.002). Also, compared with the non-injured control group, the standard and exercise groups spent less time in moderate (38.3 ± 12.7 min/day vs 14.5 ± 11.4 min/day, p=0.001 and 22.5 ± 15.9 min/day, p=0.003) and high-intensity activity (4.1 ± 6.9 min/day vs 0.1 ± 0.1 min/day, p=0.001 and 0.62 ± 1.0 min/day p=0.005).
CONCLUSION:
PA patterns are reduced in the first week after ankle sprain, which is partly ameliorated with addition of therapeutic exercises. This study represents the first step towards developing evidence-based walking prescription after acute ankle sprain.