Evaluating the effectiveness of Z: The claims made about CICS and where we go from here

There have been few genuine success stories about industrial use of formal methods. Perhaps the best known and most celebrated is the use of Z by IBM (in collaboration with Oxford University's Programming Research Group) during the development of CICS/ESA (version 3.1). This work was rewarded with the prestigious Queen's Award for Technological Achievement in 1992 and is especially notable for two reasons: 1) because it is a commercial, rather than safety- or security-critical, system and 2) because the claims made about the effectiveness of Z are quantitative as well as qualitative. The most widely publicized claims are: less than half the normal number of customer-reported errors and a 9% savings in the total development costs of the release. This paper provides an independent assessment of the effectiveness of using Z on CICS based on the set of public domain documents. Using this evidence, we believe that the case study was important and valuable, but that the quantitative claims have not been substantiated. The intellectual arguments and rationale for formal methods are attractive, but their widespread commercial use is ultimately dependent upon more convincing quantitative demonstrations of effectiveness. Despite the pioneering efforts of IBM and PRG, there is still a need for rigorous, measurement-based case studies to assess when and how the methods are most effective. We describe how future similar case studies could be improved so that the results are more rigorous and conclusive.

Computational fire engineering - do we have what we need?

This presentation will attempt to address the issue of whether the engineering design community has the knowledge, data and tool sets required to undertake advanced evacuation analysis. In discussing this issue I want to draw on examples not only from the building industry but more widely from where ever people come into contact with an environment fashioned by man. Prescriptive design regulations the world over suggest that if we follow a particular set of essentially configurational regulations concerning travel distances, number of exits, exit widths, etc it should be possible to evacuate a structure within a pre-defined acceptable amount of time. In the U.K. for public buildings this turns out to be 2.5 minutes, internationally in the aviation industry this is 90 seconds, in the UK rail industry this is 90 seconds and the international standard adopted by the maritime industry is 60 minutes. The difficulties and short comings of this approach are well known and so I will not repeat them here, save to say that this approach is usually littered with “magic numbers” that do not stand up to scrutiny. As we are focusing on human behaviour issues, it is also worth noting that more generally, the approach fails to take into account how people actually behave, preferring to adopt an engineer’s view of what people should do in order to make their design work. Examples of the failure of this approach are legion and include the; Manchester Boeing 737 fire, Kings Cross underground station fire, Piper Alpha oil platform explosion, Ladbroke Grove Rail crash and fire, Mont Blanc tunnel fire, Scandinavian Star ferry fire and the Station Nightclub fire.

The feedback we give: university student perceptions and preferences

This paper reports the results of a study on higher education student perceptions of and preferences for feedback on their performance. The issue of feedback to students is becoming increasingly important in higher education, not only because it is an important element of learning, but also as a significant component of the student experience and its evaluation. Within a mass education context, written feedback on coursework may be an important opportunity available to students for individualised attention. The current research explored perceptions of feedback by participants who were studying in undergraduate business degrees in a UK university (N=175). The survey instrument asked participants to evaluate the feedback they receive at university in terms of its impact and influence, as well as their understanding of feedback received and preferences. Analysis of the data indicates that students generally find feedback provided to them helpful and encouraging in improving their work but they also indicate that they would prefer to discuss their work directly with their tutor instead of receiving written feedback. They comment on the illegibility of some hand written feedback received. They also report that, generally, they act on the feedback received in order to improve their work and say that it helps them to reflect on their learning. Students comment that negative feedback received does not make them angry or demotivate them. The survey found considerable variability in the students' understanding of 'typical' feedback comments. The majority of students (79%) also reported that they prefer a structured feedback matrix to general comments because they consider it more specific and easier to understand. The implications of these findings for feedback and assessment practices are discussed and suggestions for improvements developed.

"Practise what we preach": a social constructivist approach to blended learning

This presentation reports on the formal evaluation, through questionnaires, of a new Level 1 undergraduate course, for 130 student teachers, that uses blended learning. The course design seeks to radicalise the department’s approach to teaching, learning and assessment and use students as change agents. Its structure and content, model social constructivist approaches to learning. Building on the student’s experiences of and, reflections on, previous learning, promotes further learning through the support of “able others” (Vygotsky 1978), facilitating and nurturing a secure community of practice for students new to higher education. The course’s design incorporates individual, paired, small and large group activities and exploits online video, audio and text materials. Course units begin and end with face-to-face tutor-led activities. Online elements, including discussions and formative submissions, are tutor-mediated. Students work together face-to-face and online to read articles, write reflections, develop presentations, research and share experiences and resources. Summative joint assignments and peer assessments emphasise the value of collaboration and teamwork for academic, personal and professional development. Initial informal findings are positive, indicating that students have engaged readily with course content and structure, with few reporting difficulties accessing or using technology. Students have welcomed the opportunity to work together to tackle readings in a new genre, pilot presentation skills and receive and give constructive feedback to peers. Course tutors have indicated that depth and quality of study are evident, with regular online formative submissions enabling tutors to identify and engage directly with student’s needs, provide feedback and develop appropriately designed distance and face-to-face teaching materials. Pastoral tutors have indicated that students have reported non-engagement of peers, leading to the rapid application of academic or personal support. Outcomes of the formal evaluation will inform the development of Level 2 and 3 courses and influence the department’s use of blended learning.

Why do we struggle when we try to learn a language as adults?

Whereas the acquisition of a first language is successful for normally developing individuals, native-like attainment in a language learnt as adults is not guaranteed. As far as grammar is concerned, the area that typically shows up as more problematic is that of Morphology, and more specifically, that part of Morphology related to the specific ways languages have to indicate notions like temporal location (e.g. English –-ed for past tense She walked) or person agreement (e.g. English –s for the third person singular She sings). Language students and teachers are familiar with exclamations like “Oh, after so many years I still have problems with the past tenses in Spanish!” or “I cannot cope with the masculine/feminine thing in French!” In this talk I will present two different accounts that are currently debated in the field of Second Language Acquisition about why it is not enough to memorize those “blessed endings” for us to master their use in our speech production. I will also introduce the latest study I have conducted in collaboration with colleagues, with the aim of evaluating the explanatory power of the hypotheses debated in current literature. [From the Author]

We could make a meal out of nothing: contested explanations of inequalities in health

This paper reports on the qualitative findings from a comparative study of public health and lifestyles in South East England and Northern France, regions with similar geographic and economic characteristics. Data from health surveys showed that both countries had an increasing BMI with age, particularly in Northern France. This was despite the finding that the percentage eating fresh fruit and vegetable at least five days a week in Northern France increased with age (from well over 50% to over 90%) compared to around 50% to around 75% in South East England. Qualitative data on health inequalities and how they could be addressed were gathered by focus groups sampling from five tiers using the Townsend Index for comparability (14 in England with 106 participants overall; 13 in France with 143 participants). Both had about two thirds women participants, with a preponderance of middle aged and older people. There was a striking difference in the salience of diet between the two countries; in the French data it was raised only 14 times, whereas in England there were 165 occurrences, and these were often distinguished by their use of narrative. Older respondents contrasted the pressures on families today and the expense of fresh fruit and vegetables with their own childhood or childrearing, when cheap meals could be created using skills which have now been lost. These data therefore provide further evidence that providing food is a moral activity.

Climate change and marine plankton

Understanding how climate change will affect the planet is a key issue worldwide. Questions concerning the pace and impacts of climate change are thus central to many ecological and biogeochemical studies, and addressing the consequences of climate change is now high on the list of priorities for funding agencies. Here, we review the interactions between climate change and plankton communities, focusing on systematic changes in plankton community structure, abundance, distribution and phenology over recent decades. We examine the potential socioeconomic impacts of these plankton changes, such as the effects of bottom-up forcing on commercially exploited fish stocks (i.e. plankton as food for fish). We also consider the crucial roles that plankton might have in dictating the future pace of climate change via feedback mechanisms responding to elevated atmospheric CO sub(2) levels. An important message emerges from this review: ongoing plankton monitoring programmes worldwide will act as sentinels to identify future changes in marine ecosystems.

Modeling marine ecosystem responses to global climate change: Where are we now and where should we be going?

Modeling of global climate change is moving from global circulation model (GCM)-type projections with coupled biogeochemical models to projections of ecological responses, including food web and upper trophic levels. Marine and coastal ecosystems are highly susceptible to the impacts of global climate change and also produce significant ecosystem services. The effects of global climate change on coastal and marine ecosystems involve a much wider array of effects than the usual temperature, sea level rise, and precipitation. This paper is an overview for a collection of 12 papers that examined various aspects of global climate change on marine ecosystems and comprise this special issue. We summarized the major features of the models and analyses in the papers to determine general patterns. A wide range of ecosystems were simulated using a diverse set of modeling approaches. Models were either 3-dimensional or used a few spatial boxes, and responses to global climate change were mostly expressed as changes from a baseline condition. Three issues were identified from the across-model comparison: (a) lack of standardization of climate change scenarios, (b) the prevalence of site-specific and even unique models for upper trophic levels, and (c) emphasis on hypothesis evaluation versus forecasting. We discuss why these issues are important as global climate change assessment continues to progress up the food chain, and, when possible, offer some initial steps for going forward.

Can we trust simple marine DMS parameterisations within complex climate models?

Dimethylsulphide (DMS) is a globally important aerosol precurser. In 1987 Charlson and others proposed that an increase in DMS production by certain phytoplankton species in response to a warming climate could stimulate increased aerosol formation, increasing the lower-atmosphere's albedo, and promoting cooling. Despite two decades of research, the global significance of this negative climate feedback remains contentious. It is therefore imperative that schemes are developed and tested, which allow for the realistic incorporation of phytoplankton DMS production into Earth System models. Using these models we can investigate the DMS-climate feedback and reduce uncertainty surrounding projections of future climate. Here we examine two empirical DMS parameterisations within the context of an Earth System model and find them to perform marginally better than the standard DMS climatology at predicting observations from an independent global dataset. We then question whether parameterisations based on our present understanding of DMS production by phytoplankton, and simple enough to incorporate into global climate models, can be shown to enhance the future predictive capacity of those models. This is an important question to ask now, as results from increasingly complex Earth System models lead us into the 5th assessment of climate science by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Comparing observed and predicted inter-annual variability, we suggest that future climate projections may underestimate the magnitude of surface ocean DMS change. Unfortunately this conclusion relies on a relatively small dataset, in which observed inter-annual variability may be exaggerated by biases in sample collection. We therefore encourage the observational community to make repeat measurements of sea-surface DMS concentrations an important focus, and highlight areas of apparent high inter-annual variability where sampling might be carried out. Finally, we assess future projections from two similarly valid empirical DMS schemes, and demonstrate contrasting results. We therefore conclude that the use of empirical DMS parameterisations within simulations of future climate should be undertaken only with careful appreciation of the caveats discussed.