Explanation, Dialogue and Default Logic

La distinción entre argumentación y explicación es una tarea complicada pero necesaria por diversas razones. Una de ellas es la necesidad de incorporar la explicación en un movimiento del diálogo como resultado de una obligación dialéctica. Se propusieron distintos sistemas de diálogo que exploran la distinción enfatizando aspectos pragmáticos. En el presente trabajo me ocupo de aspectos estructurales de la explicación analizados en el marco de la lógica por defecto que permite caracterizar ciertas objeciones en el diálogo. Asimismo, considero que la versión operacional de la lógica por defecto constituye una aproximaciónadecuada en la construcción de la explicación y en la representación de la instancia de diálogo en el intercambio dialéctico

Leave it to the Amateurs: A Career Development Explanation of Political Inexperience among Members of the Canadian Parliament:MA Thesis

In many advanced democracies, political scientists have lamented the rise of professional politicians as a challenge to the effective representation of diverse electorates. In contrast, their relative absence from Canadian federal politics gives rise to concerns over high levels of political amateurism among Canadian MPs. This study, thus, seeks to account for the numerical weakness of individuals with an occupational background in politics in the Canadian Parliament. It utilizes both individual-level quantitative data on MPs serving between the 35th and 41st Parliaments, inclusive, as well as material from qualitative interviews with over seventy former MPs. Conceptualizing the field of politics as a career in itself, and drawing on career development theory, the study finds that at the key stages of establishing, maintaining, and disengaging from a federal political career, there are specific challenges that are not significantly ameliorated by the possession of professional experience in politics itself. Professional politicians, therefore, have no major advantage over those with non-political occupational backgrounds in their career development. Furthermore, by acknowledging the existence of different types of professional politician, it finds that those whose primary occupational background was in politics itself to be in a distinct minority, but the extent of political amateurism is challenged by a much larger minority of MPs whose primary occupation was non-political but who still possess some secondary or electoral experience prior to entering Parliament.

The Herglotz variational problem on spheres and its optimal control approach

The main goal of this paper is to extend the generalized variational problem of Herglotz type to the more general context of the Euclidean sphere S^n. Motivated by classical results on Euclidean spaces, we derive the generalized Euler-Lagrange equation for the corresponding variational problem defined on the Riemannian manifold S^n. Moreover, the problem is formulated from an optimal control point of view and it is proved that the Euler-Lagrange equation can be obtained from the Hamiltonian equations. It is also highlighted the geodesic problem on spheres as a particular case of the generalized Herglotz problem.

Geometric Hamiltonian formulation of a variational problem depending on the covariant acceleration

We consider a second-order variational problem depending on the covariant acceleration, which is related to the notion of Riemannian cubic polynomials. This problem and the corresponding optimal control problem are described in the context of higher order tangent bundles using geometric tools. The main tool, a presymplectic variant of Pontryagin’s maximum principle, allows us to study the dynamics of the control problem.

Counting Crime: an explanation of falling crime rates

The current crime decrease is defying traditional criminological theories such as those espoused by Bonger (1916) who researched the relationship between crime and economic conditions and stated that when unemployment rises so does crime. In both the USA and the UK crime has dropped dramatically while unemployment has risen. Both the USA and the UK have been in a deep recession since 2008 but the crime rate has decreased dramatically in both countries. Over the past 20 years it has halved in England and Wales. So how do we explain this phenomenon? Crime is down across the West but more so in Britain (see Figure 1). In England and Wales crime has decreased by 8% in a single year (2013). Vandalism is down by 14% and burglaries and vehicle crime by 11%. The murder rate in the UK is at its lowest since 1978; in 2013, 540 people were killed. Some less serious offences are vanishing too; antisocial behaviour has fallen from just under 4million incidents in 2007-08 to 2.4million. (The Economist 20/4/13). According to the most recent annual results from the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW), crime is at its lowest level since the survey began in 1981; the most recent annual figures from the survey, Latest figures from the CSEW show there were an estimated 7.3 million incidents of crime against households and resident adults (aged 16 and over) in England and Wales for the year ending March 2014. This represents a 14% decrease compared with the previous year’s survey, and is the lowest estimate since the survey began in 1981.

A scale variational principle of Herglotz

The Herglotz problem is a generalization of the fundamental problem of the calculus of variations. In this paper, we consider a class of non-differentiable functions, where the dynamics is described by a scale derivative. Necessary conditions are derived to determine the optimal solution for the problem. Some other problems are considered, like transversality conditions, the multi-dimensional case, higher-order derivatives and for several independent variables.

Variational ensemble Kalman filtering applied to data assimilation problems in computational fluid dynamics

One challenge on data assimilation (DA) methods is how the error covariance for the model state is computed. Ensemble methods have been proposed for producing error covariance estimates, as error is propagated in time using the non-linear model. Variational methods, on the other hand, use the concepts of control theory, whereby the state estimate is optimized from both the background and the measurements. Numerical optimization schemes are applied which solve the problem of memory storage and huge matrix inversion needed by classical Kalman filter methods. Variational Ensemble Kalman filter (VEnKF), as a method inspired the Variational Kalman Filter (VKF), enjoys the benefits from both ensemble methods and variational methods. It avoids filter inbreeding problems which emerge when the ensemble spread underestimates the true error covariance. In VEnKF this is tackled by resampling the ensemble every time measurements are available. One advantage of VEnKF over VKF is that it needs neither tangent linear code nor adjoint code. In this thesis, VEnKF has been applied to a two-dimensional shallow water model simulating a dam-break experiment. The model is a public code with water height measurements recorded in seven stations along the 21:2 m long 1:4 m wide flume’s mid-line. Because the data were too sparse to assimilate the 30 171 model state vector, we chose to interpolate the data both in time and in space. The results of the assimilation were compared with that of a pure simulation. We have found that the results revealed by the VEnKF were more realistic, without numerical artifacts present in the pure simulation. Creating a wrapper code for a model and DA scheme might be challenging, especially when the two were designed independently or are poorly documented. In this thesis we have presented a non-intrusive approach of coupling the model and a DA scheme. An external program is used to send and receive information between the model and DA procedure using files. The advantage of this method is that the model code changes needed are minimal, only a few lines which facilitate input and output. Apart from being simple to coupling, the approach can be employed even if the two were written in different programming languages, because the communication is not through code. The non-intrusive approach is made to accommodate parallel computing by just telling the control program to wait until all the processes have ended before the DA procedure is invoked. It is worth mentioning the overhead increase caused by the approach, as at every assimilation cycle both the model and the DA procedure have to be initialized. Nonetheless, the method can be an ideal approach for a benchmark platform in testing DA methods. The non-intrusive VEnKF has been applied to a multi-purpose hydrodynamic model COHERENS to assimilate Total Suspended Matter (TSM) in lake Säkylän Pyhäjärvi. The lake has an area of 154 km2 with an average depth of 5:4 m. Turbidity and chlorophyll-a concentrations from MERIS satellite images for 7 days between May 16 and July 6 2009 were available. The effect of the organic matter has been computationally eliminated to obtain TSM data. Because of computational demands from both COHERENS and VEnKF, we have chosen to use 1 km grid resolution. The results of the VEnKF have been compared with the measurements recorded at an automatic station located at the North-Western part of the lake. However, due to TSM data sparsity in both time and space, it could not be well matched. The use of multiple automatic stations with real time data is important to elude the time sparsity problem. With DA, this will help in better understanding the environmental hazard variables for instance. We have found that using a very high ensemble size does not necessarily improve the results, because there is a limit whereby additional ensemble members add very little to the performance. Successful implementation of the non-intrusive VEnKF and the ensemble size limit for performance leads to an emerging area of Reduced Order Modeling (ROM). To save computational resources, running full-blown model in ROM is avoided. When the ROM is applied with the non-intrusive DA approach, it might result in a cheaper algorithm that will relax computation challenges existing in the field of modelling and DA.

An explanation of consumer trust recovery in a food retailer

An organization trusted by consumers enjoys a number of benefits. Unfortunately, instances of trust-damaging events involving organizations happen often. Damaged consumer trust in an organization has numerous negative consequences for the organization and for consumers. Currently, there is a paucity of theory about consumer trust recovery. So, understanding why and how consumer trust recovery occurs is timely, and theoretically and practically relevant. However, the findings from this study suggest that we need to distinguish between two kinds of consumer trust recovery. The first (I call it unconscious consumer trust recovery) refers to trust recovery that occurs without the consumer being fully conscious of it. In other words, a consumer is aware of their damaged trust during the scandal, but is not aware that their trust in the organization has improved. The consumer does not think about his or her recovered trust, just as they did not think about their level of trust before the scandal. The consumer trust is habitual. The second (I call it conscious consumer trust recovery) refers to an improvement in damaged trust where the consumer is fully conscious of their trust recovery. In other words, in conscious trust recovery the consumer is aware that the scandal damaged their trust in the organization. Also, after the scandal, in contrast to unconscious trust recovery, in conscious trust recovery the consumer is also fully aware that he trusts the organization as much or more than during the scandal. My aim is to inductively develop a theory explaining each type of consumer trust recovery. To do so, I use Charmazian grounded theory methodology, because this methodology is developed for theory-building from data and is aligned with the philosophical underpinnings of this study. The empirical context for this study is the meat adulteration scandal (“the horse meat scandal”) in 2013 in the UK. I collect and analyse empirical data about both types of trust recovery in an organization from 31 consumers that experienced both types. My analysis shows that when consumers perceive the scandal as less important, they experience unconscious trust recovery. This happens because the reduced importance of the scandal leads to a shift in consumers’ attention, which in turn leads to their inattentiveness to the scandal. Consumer inattentiveness is an immediate antecedent of unconscious trust recovery. Conscious consumer trust recovery occurs because consumers see cues indicating to them that the food retailer has improved product control systems, which in turn leads to consumer perceptions of the organization’s renewed ability. Consumer perception of renewed ability is an immediate antecedent of their conscious trust recovery. My findings lead me to make three main theoretical contributions to the theory of trust recovery in general and to consumer trust recovery in particular. The first contribution lies in showing that there are two types of consumer trust recovery in an organization, not one, as previously conceptualised, and that the same consumers can experience both types. The second contribution is a theory of unconscious consumer trust recovery in an organization that involves three concepts: consumers’ perceived importance of the scandal, consumers’ shift of attention, and consumer inattentiveness. The third contribution is the finding that conscious recovery of consumer trust occurs even when existing theory of trust recovery would predict that it would not. This study can help managers aiming to repair consumer trust in an organization by identifying a set of antecedents and underlying mechanisms that can guide such trust repair.

Dysautonomia: an Explanation for the Medically Unexplained?

Objective: To identify dysautonomia as a collection of conditions with variable presentation that may be mistaken for medically unexplained symptoms. Methods: Case series. Results: Tilt table testing and 24 h electrocardiographic monitoring provided useful diagnostic tools to confirm the diagnosis. Conclusion: A greater awareness and recognition of the disorders that result from dysautonomia and recognition of the disability that results from these disorders will improve patients’ quality of life.

Fractional variational problems depending on indefinite integrals and with delay

The aim of this paper is to exhibit a necessary and sufficient condition of optimality for functionals depending on fractional integrals and derivatives, on indefinite integrals and on presence of time delay. We exemplify with one example, where we nd analytically the minimizer.

Higher-order variational problems of Herglotz type

We obtain a generalized Euler–Lagrange differential equation and transversality optimality conditions for Herglotz-type higher-order variational problems. Illustrative examples of the new results are given.

The chess player / by George Walker; to which are added the three games played at one and the same time by Philidor; sixty openings, mates and situations, by W. S. Kenny, with remarks, anecdotes, &c. &c., and an explanation of the round chess board.

Mode of access: Internet.

Explanation, Dialogue and Default Logic

La distinción entre argumentación y explicación es una tarea complicada pero necesaria por diversas razones. Una de ellas es la necesidad de incorporar la explicación en un movimiento del diálogo como resultado de una obligación dialéctica. Se propusieron distintos sistemas de diálogo que exploran la distinción enfatizando aspectos pragmáticos. En el presente trabajo me ocupo de aspectos estructurales de la explicación analizados en el marco de la lógica por defecto que permite caracterizar ciertas objeciones en el diálogo. Asimismo, considero que la versión operacional de la lógica por defecto constituye una aproximaciónadecuada en la construcción de la explicación y en la representación de la instancia de diálogo en el intercambio dialéctico