Haar wavelets-based approach for quantifying credit portfolio losses

This paper proposes a new methodology to compute Value at Risk (VaR) for quantifying losses in credit portfolios. We approximate the cumulative distribution of the loss function by a finite combination of Haar wavelet basis functions and calculate the coefficients of the approximation by inverting its Laplace transform. The Wavelet Approximation (WA) method is specially suitable for non-smooth distributions, often arising in small or concentrated portfolios, when the hypothesis of the Basel II formulas are violated. To test the methodology we consider the Vasicek one-factor portfolio credit loss model as our model framework. WA is an accurate, robust and fast method, allowing to estimate VaR much more quickly than with a Monte Carlo (MC) method at the same level of accuracy and reliability.

Detection of coronary stenoses with contrast enhanced, three-dimensional free breathing coronary MR angiography using the gadolinium-based intravascular contrast agent gadocoletic acid (B-22956).

PURPOSE: To determine the diagnostic value of the intravascular contrast agent gadocoletic acid (B-22956) in three-dimensional, free breathing coronary magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) for stenosis detection in patients with suspected or known coronary artery disease. METHODS: Eighteen patients underwent three-dimensional, free breathing coronary MRA of the left and right coronary system before and after intravenous application of a single dose of gadocoletic acid (B-22956) using three different dose regimens (group A 0.050 mmol/kg; group B 0.075 mmol/kg; group C 0.100 mmol/kg). Precontrast scanning followed a coronary MRA standard non-contrast T2 preparation/turbo-gradient echo sequence (T2Prep); for postcontrast scanning an inversion-recovery gradient echo sequence was used (real-time navigator correction for both scans). In pre- and postcontrast scans quantitative analysis of coronary MRA data was performed to determine the number of visible side branches, vessel length and vessel sharpness of each of the three coronary arteries (LAD, LCX, RCA). The number of assessable coronary artery segments was determined to calculate sensitivity and specificity for detection of stenosis > or = 50% on a segment-to-segment basis (16-segment-model) in pre- and postcontrast scans with x-ray coronary angiography as the standard of reference. RESULTS: Dose group B (0.075 mmol/kg) was preferable with regard to improvement of MR angiographic parameters: in postcontrast scans all MR angiographic parameters increased significantly except for the number of visible side branches of the left circumflex artery. In addition, assessability of coronary artery segments significantly improved postcontrast in this dose group (67 versus 88%, p < 0.01). Diagnostic performance (sensitivity, specificity, accuracy) was 83, 77 and 78% for precontrast and 86, 95 and 94% for postcontrast scans. CONCLUSIONS: The use of gadocoletic acid (B-22956) results in an improvement of MR angiographic parameters, asssessability of coronary segments and detection of coronary stenoses > or = 50%.

Prospective evaluation of risk of vertebral fractures using quantitative ultrasound measurements and bone mineral density in a population-based sample of postmenopausal women: results of the Basel Osteoporosis Study.

OBJECTIVE: Prospective studies have shown that quantitative ultrasound (QUS) techniques predict the risk of fracture of the proximal femur with similar standardised risk ratios to dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA). Few studies have investigated these devices for the prediction of vertebral fractures. The Basel Osteoporosis Study (BOS) is a population-based prospective study to assess the performance of QUS devices and DXA in predicting incident vertebral fractures. METHODS: 432 women aged 60-80 years were followed-up for 3 years. Incident vertebral fractures were assessed radiologically. Bone measurements using DXA (spine and hip) and QUS measurements (calcaneus and proximal phalanges) were performed. Measurements were assessed for their value in predicting incident vertebral fractures using logistic regression. RESULTS: QUS measurements at the calcaneus and DXA measurements discriminated between women with and without incident vertebral fracture, (20% height reduction). The relative risks (RRs) for vertebral fracture, adjusted for age, were 2.3 for the Stiffness Index (SI) and 2.8 for the Quantitative Ultrasound Index (QUI) at the calcaneus and 2.0 for bone mineral density at the lumbar spine. The predictive value (AUC (95% CI)) of QUS measurements at the calcaneus remained highly significant (0.70 for SI, 0.72 for the QUI, and 0.67 for DXA at the lumbar spine) even after adjustment for other confounding variables. CONCLUSIONS: QUS of the calcaneus and bone mineral density measurements were shown to be significant predictors of incident vertebral fracture. The RRs for QUS measurements at the calcaneus are of similar magnitude as for DXA measurements.

Rapid diagnostic tests for the home-based management of malaria, in a high-transmission area.

Rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) are sometimes recommended to improve the home-based management of malaria. The accuracy of an RDT for the detection of clinical malaria and the presence of malarial parasites has recently been evaluated in a high-transmission area of southern Mali. During the same study, the cost-effectiveness of a 'test-and-treat' strategy for the home-based management of malaria (based on an artemisinin-combination therapy) was compared with that of a 'treat-all' strategy. Overall, 301 patients, of all ages, each of whom had been considered a presumptive case of uncomplicated malaria by a village healthworker, were checked with a commercial RDT (Paracheck-Pf). The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of this test, compared with the results of microscopy and two different definitions of clinical malaria, were then determined. The RDT was found to be 82.9% sensitive (with a 95% confidence interval of 78.0%-87.1%) and 78.9% (63.9%-89.7%) specific compared with the detection of parasites by microscopy. In the detection of clinical malaria, it was 95.2% (91.3%-97.6%) sensitive and 57.4% (48.2%-66.2%) specific compared with a general practitioner's diagnosis of the disease, and 100.0% (94.5%-100.0%) sensitive but only 30.2% (24.8%-36.2%) specific when compared against the fulfillment of the World Health Organization's (2003) research criteria for uncomplicated malaria. Among children aged 0-5 years, the cost of the 'test-and-treat' strategy, per episode, was about twice that of the 'treat-all' (U.S.$1.0. v. U.S.$0.5). In older subjects, however, the two strategies were equally costly (approximately U.S.$2/episode). In conclusion, for children aged 0-5 years in a high-transmission area of sub-Saharan Africa, use of the RDT was not cost-effective compared with the presumptive treatment of malaria with an ACT. In older patients, use of the RDT did not reduce costs. The question remains whether either of the strategies investigated can be made affordable for the affected population.

Effect of Platinum-Based Chemoradiotherapy on Cellular Proliferation in Bone Marrow and Spleen, Estimated by 18F-FLT PET/CT in Patients with Locally Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer.

Historically, it has been difficult to monitor the acute impact of anticancer therapies on hematopoietic organs on a whole-body scale. Deeper understanding of the effect of treatments on bone marrow would be of great potential value in the rational design of intensive treatment regimens. 3'-deoxy-3'-(18)F-fluorothymidine ((18)F-FLT) is a functional radiotracer used to study cellular proliferation. It is trapped in cells in proportion to thymidine-kinase 1 enzyme expression, which is upregulated during DNA synthesis. This study investigates the potential of (18)F-FLT to monitor acute effects of chemotherapy on cellular proliferation and its recovery in bone marrow, spleen, and liver during treatment with 2 different chemotherapy regimens.

Trabecular Bone Score: A Noninvasive Analytical Method Based Upon the DXA Image.

The trabecular bone score (TBS) is a gray-level textural metric that can be extracted from the two-dimensional lumbar spine dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) image. TBS is related to bone microarchitecture and provides skeletal information that is not captured from the standard bone mineral density (BMD) measurement. Based on experimental variograms of the projected DXA image, TBS has the potential to discern differences between DXA scans that show similar BMD measurements. An elevated TBS value correlates with better skeletal microstructure; a low TBS value correlates with weaker skeletal microstructure. Lumbar spine TBS has been evaluated in cross-sectional and longitudinal studies. The following conclusions are based upon publications reviewed in this article: 1) TBS gives lower values in postmenopausal women and in men with previous fragility fractures than their nonfractured counterparts; 2) TBS is complementary to data available by lumbar spine DXA measurements; 3) TBS results are lower in women who have sustained a fragility fracture but in whom DXA does not indicate osteoporosis or even osteopenia; 4) TBS predicts fracture risk as well as lumbar spine BMD measurements in postmenopausal women; 5) efficacious therapies for osteoporosis differ in the extent to which they influence the TBS; 6) TBS is associated with fracture risk in individuals with conditions related to reduced bone mass or bone quality. Based on these data, lumbar spine TBS holds promise as an emerging technology that could well become a valuable clinical tool in the diagnosis of osteoporosis and in fracture risk assessment. © 2014 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

The Value of Knowing: Public Perceptions about Alzheimers and testing

����This survey commissioned by Alzheimer Europe��examined public perception and awareness of Alzheimer’s disease and aimed to identify the views of the general public on the value of diagnosis. The survey of 2,678 people was designed and analysed by the Harvard School of Public Health and Alzheimer Europe. Fieldwork was conducted via telephone (landline and cell phone) with nationally representative random samples of adults age 18 and older in five countries by TNS, an independent research company based in London. Countries surveyed were the USA, Germany, France, Spain and Poland. The survey was supported by a grant to Alzheimer Europe from Bayer AG. Bayer was not involved in the design of the survey or the analysis of the findings.��Full details of the survey results are available on the AE website at: http://www.alzheimer-europe.org/EN/Research��Alzheimer Europe is the umbrella organisation of national Alzheimer associations and currently has 31 member organisations in 27 European countries. The mission statement of the organisation is to change perceptions, practice and policy to ensure equal access of people with dementia to a high level of care services and treatment options.����

The Value of Imperfection : the Wabi-Sabi Principle in Aesthetics and Learning

OER-based learning has the potential to overcome many shortcomings and problems of traditional education. It is not hampered by IP restrictions; can depend on collaborative, cumulative, iterative refinement of resources; and the digital form provides unprecedented flexibility with respect to configuration and delivery. The OER community is a progressive group of educators and learners with decades of learning research to draw from, who know that we must prepare learners for an evolving and diverse reality. Despite this OER tends to replicate the unsuccessful characteristics of traditional education. To remedy this we may need to remember the importance of imperfection, mistakes, problems, disagreement, and the incomplete for engaged learning, and relinquish our notions of perfection, acknowledging that learners learn differently and we need diverse learners. We must stretch our perceptions of quality and provide mechanisms for engaging the incredible pool of educators globally to fulfill the promise of inclusive education.

Predicting outcome after acute basilar artery occlusion based on admission characteristics.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a simple prognostic model to predict outcome at 1 month after acute basilar artery occlusion (BAO) with readily available predictors. METHODS: The Basilar Artery International Cooperation Study (BASICS) is a prospective, observational, international registry of consecutive patients who presented with an acute symptomatic and radiologically confirmed BAO. We considered predictors available at hospital admission in multivariable logistic regression models to predict poor outcome (modified Rankin Scale [mRS] score 4-5 or death) at 1 month. We used receiver operator characteristic curves to assess the discriminatory performance of the models. RESULTS: Of the 619 patients, 429 (69%) had a poor outcome at 1 month: 74 (12%) had a mRS score of 4, 115 (19%) had a mRS score of 5, and 240 (39%) had died. The main predictors of poor outcome were older age, absence of hyperlipidemia, presence of prodromal minor stroke, higher NIH Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score, and longer time to treatment. A prognostic model that combined demographic data and stroke risk factors had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.64. This performance improved by including findings from the neurologic examination (AUC 0.79) and CT imaging (AUC 0.80). A risk chart showed predictions of poor outcome at 1 month varying from 25 to 96%. CONCLUSION: Poor outcome after BAO can be reliably predicted by a simple model that includes older age, absence of hyperlipidemia, presence of prodromal minor stroke, higher NIHSS score, and longer time to treatment.

Depression with atypical features and increase in obesity, body mass index, waist circumference, and fat mass: a prospective, population-based study.

IMPORTANCE: Depression and obesity are 2 prevalent disorders that have been repeatedly shown to be associated. However, the mechanisms and temporal sequence underlying this association are poorly understood. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether the subtypes of major depressive disorder (MDD; melancholic, atypical, combined, or unspecified) are predictive of adiposity in terms of the incidence of obesity and changes in body mass index (calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared), waist circumference, and fat mass. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This prospective population-based cohort study, CoLaus (Cohorte Lausannoise)/PsyCoLaus (Psychiatric arm of the CoLaus Study), with 5.5 years of follow-up included 3054 randomly selected residents (mean age, 49.7 years; 53.1% were women) of the city of Lausanne, Switzerland (according to the civil register), aged 35 to 66 years in 2003, who accepted the physical and psychiatric baseline and physical follow-up evaluations. EXPOSURES: Depression subtypes according to the DSM-IV. Diagnostic criteria at baseline and follow-up, as well as sociodemographic characteristics, lifestyle (alcohol and tobacco use and physical activity), and medication, were elicited using the semistructured Diagnostic Interview for Genetic Studies. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Changes in body mass index, waist circumference, and fat mass during the follow-up period, in percentage of the baseline value, and the incidence of obesity during the follow-up period among nonobese participants at baseline. Weight, height, waist circumference, and body fat (bioimpedance) were measured at baseline and follow-up by trained field interviewers. RESULTS: Only participants with the atypical subtype of MDD at baseline revealed a higher increase in adiposity during follow-up than participants without MDD. The associations between this MDD subtype and body mass index (β = 3.19; 95% CI, 1.50-4.88), incidence of obesity (odds ratio, 3.75; 95% CI, 1.24-11.35), waist circumference in both sexes (β = 2.44; 95% CI, 0.21-4.66), and fat mass in men (β = 16.36; 95% CI, 4.81-27.92) remained significant after adjustments for a wide range of possible cofounding. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The atypical subtype of MDD is a strong predictor of obesity. This emphasizes the need to identify individuals with this subtype of MDD in both clinical and research settings. Therapeutic measures to diminish the consequences of increased appetite during depressive episodes with atypical features are advocated.

DAS-28-based EULAR response and HAQ improvement in rheumatoid arthritis patients switching between TNF antagonists

INTRODUCTION No definitive data are available regarding the value of switching to an alternative TNF antagonist in rheumatoid arthritis patients who fail to respond to the first one. The aim of this study was to evaluate treatment response in a clinical setting based on HAQ improvement and EULAR response criteria in RA patients who were switched to a second or a third TNF antagonist due to failure with the first one. METHODS This was an observational, prospective study of a cohort of 417 RA patients treated with TNF antagonists in three university hospitals in Spain between January 1999 and December 2005. A database was created at the participating centres, with well-defined operational instructions. The main outcome variables were analyzed using parametric or non-parametric tests depending on the level of measurement and distribution of each variable. RESULTS Mean (+/- SD) DAS-28 on starting the first, second and third TNF antagonist was 5.9 (+/- 2.0), 5.1 (+/- 1.5) and 6.1 (+/- 1.1). At the end of follow-up, it decreased to 3.3 (+/- 1.6; Delta = -2.6; p > 0.0001), 4.2 (+/- 1.5; Delta = -1.1; p = 0.0001) and 5.4 (+/- 1.7; Delta = -0.7; p = 0.06). For the first TNF antagonist, DAS-28-based EULAR response level was good in 42% and moderate in 33% of patients. The second TNF antagonist yielded a good response in 20% and no response in 53% of patients, while the third one yielded a good response in 28% and no response in 72%. Mean baseline HAQ on starting the first, second and third TNF antagonist was 1.61, 1.52 and 1.87, respectively. At the end of follow-up, it decreased to 1.12 (Delta = -0.49; p < 0.0001), 1.31 (Delta = -0.21, p = 0.004) and 1.75 (Delta = -0.12; p = 0.1), respectively. Sixty four percent of patients had a clinically important improvement in HAQ (defined as > or = -0.22) with the first TNF antagonist and 46% with the second. CONCLUSION A clinically significant effect size was seen in less than half of RA patients cycling to a second TNF antagonist.

Angiogenesis-related gene expression profile with independent prognostic value in advanced ovarian carcinoma.

BACKGROUND Ovarian carcinoma is the most important cause of gynecological cancer-related mortality in Western societies. Despite the improved median overall survival in patients receiving chemotherapy regimens such as paclitaxel and carboplatin combination, relapse still occurs in most advanced diseased patients. Increased angiogenesis is associated with rapid recurrence and decreased survival in ovarian cancer. This study was planned to identify an angiogenesis-related gene expression profile with prognostic value in advanced ovarian carcinoma patients. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS RNAs were collected from formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded samples of 61 patients with III/IV FIGO stage ovarian cancer who underwent surgical cytoreduction and received a carboplatin plus paclitaxel regimen. Expression levels of 82 angiogenesis related genes were measured by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction using TaqMan low-density arrays. A 34-gene-profile which was able to predict the overall survival of ovarian carcinoma patients was identified. After a leave-one-out cross validation, the profile distinguished two groups of patients with different outcomes. Median overall survival and progression-free survival for the high risk group was 28.3 and 15.0 months, respectively, and was not reached by patients in the low risk group at the end of follow-up. Moreover, the profile maintained an independent prognostic value in the multivariate analysis. The hazard ratio for death was 2.3 (95% CI, 1.5 to 3.2; p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE It is possible to generate a prognostic model for advanced ovarian carcinoma based on angiogenesis-related genes using formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded samples. The present results are consistent with the increasing weight of angiogenesis genes in the prognosis of ovarian carcinoma.

Recommender System Based on Consumer Product Reviews

Consumer reviews, opinions and shared experiences in the use of a product is a powerful source of information about consumer preferences that can be used in recommender systems. Despite the importance and value of such information, there is no comprehensive mechanism that formalizes the opinions selection and retrieval process and the utilization of retrieved opinions due to the difficulty of extracting information from text data. In this paper, a new recommender system that is built on consumer product reviews is proposed. A prioritizing mechanism is developed for the system. The proposed approach is illustrated using the case study of a recommender system for digital cameras

Pragmatic approach for interpreting antiretroviral drug concentrations based on a systematic review of population pharmacokinetic studies

Objectives: The study objective was to derive reference pharmacokinetic curves of antiretroviral drugs (ART) based on available population pharmacokinetic (Pop-PK) studies that can be used to optimize therapeutic drug monitoring guided dosage adjustment.¦Methods: A systematic search of Pop-PK studies of 8 ART in adults was performed in PubMed. To simulate reference PK curves, a summary of the PK parameters was obtained for each drug based on meta-analysis approach. Most models used one-compartment model, thus chosen as reference model. Models using bi-exponential disposition were simplified to one-compartment, since the first distribution phase was rapid and not determinant for the description of the terminal elimination phase, mostly relevant for this project. Different absorption were standardized for first-order absorption processes.¦Apparent clearance (CL), apparent volume of distribution of the terminal phase (Vz) and absorption rate constant (ka) and inter-individual variability were pooled into summary mean value, weighted by number of plasma levels; intra-individual variability was weighted by number of individuals in each study.¦Simulations based on summary PK parameters served to construct concentration PK percentiles (NONMEM®).¦Concordance between individual and summary parameters was assessed graphically using Forest-plots. To test robustness, difference in simulated curves based on published and summary parameters was calculated using efavirenz as probe drug.¦Results: CL was readily accessible from all studies. For studies with one-compartment, Vz was central volume of distribution; for two-compartment, Vz was CL/λz. ka was directly used or derived based on the mean absorption time (MAT) for more complicated absorption models, assuming MAT=1/ka.¦The value of CL for each drug was in excellent agreement throughout all Pop-PK models, suggesting that minimal concentration derived from summary models was adequately characterized. The comparison of the concentration vs. time profile for efavirenz between published and summary PK parameters revealed not more than 20% difference. Although our approach appears adequate for estimation of elimination phase, the simplification of absorption phase might lead to small bias shortly after drug intake.¦Conclusions: Simulated reference percentile curves based on such an approach represent a useful tool for interpretating drug concentrations. This Pop-PK meta-analysis approach should be further validated and could be extended to elaborate more sophisticated computerized tool for the Bayesian TDM of ART.

Acute imaging does not improve ASTRAL score's accuracy despite having a prognostic value.

BACKGROUND: The ASTRAL score was recently shown to reliably predict three-month functional outcome in patients with acute ischemic stroke. AIM: The study aims to investigate whether information from multimodal imaging increases ASTRAL score's accuracy. METHODS: All patients registered in the ASTRAL registry until March 2011 were included. In multivariate logistic-regression analyses, we added covariates derived from parenchymal, vascular, and perfusion imaging to the 6-parameter model of the ASTRAL score. If a specific imaging covariate remained an independent predictor of three-month modified Rankin score > 2, the area-under-the-curve (AUC) of this new model was calculated and compared with ASTRAL score's AUC. We also performed similar logistic regression analyses in arbitrarily chosen patient subgroups. RESULTS: When added to the ASTRAL score, the following covariates on admission computed tomography/magnetic resonance imaging-based multimodal imaging were not significant predictors of outcome: any stroke-related acute lesion, any nonstroke-related lesions, chronic/subacute stroke, leukoaraiosis, significant arterial pathology in ischemic territory on computed tomography angiography/magnetic resonance angiography/Doppler, significant intracranial arterial pathology in ischemic territory, and focal hypoperfusion on perfusion-computed tomography. The Alberta Stroke Program Early CT score on plain imaging and any significant extracranial arterial pathology on computed tomography angiography/magnetic resonance angiography/Doppler were independent predictors of outcome (odds ratio: 0·93, 95% CI: 0·87-0·99 and odds ratio: 1·49, 95% CI: 1·08-2·05, respectively) but did not increase ASTRAL score's AUC (0·849 vs. 0·850, and 0·8563 vs. 0·8564, respectively). In exploratory analyses in subgroups of different prognosis, age or stroke severity, no covariate was found to increase ASTRAL score's AUC, either. CONCLUSIONS: The addition of information derived from multimodal imaging does not increase ASTRAL score's accuracy to predict functional outcome despite having an independent prognostic value. More selected radiological parameters applied in specific subgroups of stroke patients may add prognostic value of multimodal imaging.