Bayesian model selection methodology for road safety

Road accidents are a very relevant issue in many countries and macroeconomic models are very frequently applied by academia and administrations to reduce their frequency and consequences. The selection of explanatory variables and response transformation parameter within the Bayesian framework for the selection of the set of explanatory variables a TIM and 3IM (two input and three input models) procedures are proposed. The procedure also uses the DIC and pseudo -R2 goodness of fit criteria. The model to which the methodology is applied is a dynamic regression model with Box-Cox transformation (BCT) for the explanatory variables and autorgressive (AR) structure for the response. The initial set of 22 explanatory variables are identified. The effects of these factors on the fatal accident frequency in Spain, during 2000-2012, are estimated. The dependent variable is constructed considering the stochastic trend component.

A component- and connector-based approach for end-user composite web applications development

Enabling real end-user development is the next logical stage in the evolution of Internet-wide service-based applications. Successful composite applications rely on heavyweight service orchestration technologies that raise the bar far above end-user skills. This weakness can be attributed to the fact that the composition model does not satisfy end-user needs rather than to the actual infrastructure technologies. In our opinion, the best way to overcome this weakness is to offer end-to-end composition from the user interface to service invocation, plus an understandable abstraction of building blocks and a visual composition technique empowering end users to develop their own applications. In this paper, we present a visual framework for end users, called FAST, which fulfils this objective. FAST implements a novel composition model designed to empower non-programmer end users to create and share their own self-service composite applications in a fully visual fashion. We projected the development environment implementing this model as part of the European FP7 FAST Project, which was used to validate the rationale behind our approach.

Class-Conditional Probabilistic Principal Component Analysis: application to gender recognition

Este trabajo presenta una solución al problema del reconocimiento del género de un rostro humano a partir de una imagen. Adoptamos una aproximación que utiliza la cara completa a través de la textura de la cara normalizada y redimensionada como entrada a un clasificador Näive Bayes. Presentamos la técnica de Análisis de Componentes Principales Probabilístico Condicionado-a-la-Clase (CC-PPCA) para reducir la dimensionalidad de los vectores de características para la clasificación y asegurar la asunción de independencia para el clasificador. Esta nueva aproximación tiene la deseable propiedad de presentar un modelo paramétrico sencillo para las marginales. Además, este modelo puede estimarse con muy pocos datos. En los experimentos que hemos desarrollados mostramos que CC-PPCA obtiene un 90% de acierto en la clasificación, resultado muy similar al mejor presentado en la literatura---ABSTRACT---This paper presents a solution to the problem of recognizing the gender of a human face from an image. We adopt a holistic approach by using the cropped and normalized texture of the face as input to a Naïve Bayes classifier. First it is introduced the Class-Conditional Probabilistic Principal Component Analysis (CC-PPCA) technique to reduce the dimensionality of the classification attribute vector and enforce the independence assumption of the classifier. This new approach has the desirable property of a simple parametric model for the marginals. Moreover this model can be estimated with very few data. In the experiments conducted we show that using CCPPCA we get 90% classification accuracy, which is similar result to the best in the literature. The proposed method is very simple to train and implement.

Histone underacetylation is an ancient component of mammalian X chromosome inactivation

Underacetylation of histone H4 is thought to be involved in the molecular mechanism of mammalian X chromosome inactivation, which is an important model system for large-scale genetic control in eukaryotes. However, it has not been established whether histone underacetylation plays a critical role in the multistep inactivation pathway. Here we demonstrate differential histone H4 acetylation between the X chromosomes of a female marsupial, Macropus eugenii. Histone underacetylation is the only molecular aspect of X inactivation known to be shared by marsupial and eutherian mammals. Its strong evolutionary conservation implies that, unlike DNA methylation, histone underacetylation was a feature of dosage compensation in a common mammalian ancestor, and is therefore likely to play a central role in X chromosome inactivation in all mammals.

An Access Control Model for Protecting Provenance Graphs

Postprint

Genetic definition of a protein-splicing domain: Functional mini-inteins support structure predictions and a model for intein evolution

Inteins are protein-splicing elements, most of which contain conserved sequence blocks that define a family of homing endonucleases. Like group I introns that encode such endonucleases, inteins are mobile genetic elements. Recent crystallography and computer modeling studies suggest that inteins consist of two structural domains that correspond to the endonuclease and the protein-splicing elements. To determine whether the bipartite structure of inteins is mirrored by the functional independence of the protein-splicing domain, the entire endonuclease component was deleted from the Mycobacterium tuberculosis recA intein. Guided by computer modeling studies, and taking advantage of genetic systems designed to monitor intein function, the 440-aa Mtu recA intein was reduced to a functional mini-intein of 137 aa. The accuracy of splicing of several mini-inteins was verified. This work not only substantiates structure predictions for intein function but also supports the hypothesis that, like group I introns, mobile inteins arose by an endonuclease gene invading a sequence encoding a small, functional splicing element.

A transgenic mouse model to analyze CD8+ effector T cell differentiation in vivo

Antigen-specific effector T cells are prerequisite to immune protection, but because of the lack of effector cell-specific markers, their generation and differentiation has been difficult to study. We report that effector cells are highly enriched in a T cell subset that can be specifically identified in transgenic (T-GFP) mice expressing green fluorescent protein (GFP) under control of the murine CD4 promoter and proximal enhancer. Consistent with previous studies of these transcriptional control elements, GFP was strongly and specifically expressed in nearly all resting and short-term activated CD4+ and CD8+ T cells. However, when T-GFP mice were challenged with vaccinia virus, allogeneic tumor cells, or staphylococcal enterotoxin A, the cytotoxic and IFN-γ-producing T cells lost GFP expression. Upon T cell receptor (TCR) ligation by αCD3, sorted GFP+ cells fluxed calcium and proliferated vigorously. In contrast, GFP− effector cells showed a diminished calcium flux and did not proliferate. Instead, they underwent apoptosis unless supplied with exogenous IL-2. By reverse transcription–PCR analysis, the GFP− cells up-regulated the pro-apoptotic molecule, Fas-L, and down-regulated gene expression of the proximal TCR signaling molecule, CD3ζ, and c-jun, a component of the AP-1 transcription factor. Thus, differential regulation of TCR signaling may explain the divergent responses of naïve and effector T cells to antigen stimulation.

Electric field-induced reorganization of two-component supported bilayer membranes

Application of electric fields tangent to the plane of a confined patch of fluid bilayer membrane can create lateral concentration gradients of the lipids. A thermodynamic model of this steady-state behavior is developed for binary systems and tested with experiments in supported lipid bilayers. The model uses Flory’s approximation for the entropy of mixing and allows for effects arising when the components have different molecular areas. In the special case of equal area molecules the concentration gradient reduces to a Fermi–Dirac distribution. The theory is extended to include effects from charged molecules in the membrane. Calculations show that surface charge on the supporting substrate substantially screens electrostatic interactions within the membrane. It also is shown that concentration profiles can be affected by other intermolecular interactions such as clustering. Qualitative agreement with this prediction is provided by comparing phosphatidylserine- and cardiolipin-containing membranes.

Structural model of cytochrome b559 in photosystem II based on a mutant with genetically fused subunits

Photosystem II is a reaction center protein complex located in photosynthetic membranes of plants, algae, and cyanobacteria. Using light energy, photosystem II catalyzes the oxidation of water and the reduction of plastoquinone, resulting in the release of molecular oxygen. A key component of photosystem II is cytochrome b559, a membrane-embedded heme protein with an unknown function. The cytochrome is unusual in that a heme links two separate polypeptide subunits, α and β, either as a heterodimer (αβ) or as two homodimers (α2 and β2). To determine the structural organization of cytochrome b559 in the membrane, we used site-directed mutagenesis to fuse the coding regions of the two respective genes in the cyanobacterium Synechocystis sp. PCC 6803. In this construction, the C terminus of the α subunit (9 kDa) is attached to the N terminus of the β subunit (5 kDa) to form a 14-kDa αβ fusion protein that is predicted to have two membrane-spanning α-helices with antiparallel orientations. Cells containing the αβ fusion protein grow photoautotrophically and assemble functional photosystem II complexes. Optical spectroscopy shows that the αβ fusion protein binds heme and is incorporated into photosystem II. These data support a structural model of cytochrome b559 in which one heme is coordinated to an α2 homodimer and a second heme is coordinated to a β2 homodimer. In this model, each photosystem II complex contains two cytochrome b559 hemes, with the α2 heme located near the stromal side of the membrane and the β2 heme located near the lumenal side.

A feedback-controlled ensemble model of the stress-responsive hypothalamo-pituitary-adrenal axis

The present work develops and implements a biomathematical statement of how reciprocal connectivity drives stress-adaptive homeostasis in the corticotropic (hypothalamo-pituitary-adrenal) axis. In initial analyses with this interactive construct, we test six specific a priori hypotheses of mechanisms linking circadian (24-h) rhythmicity to pulsatile secretory output. This formulation offers a dynamic framework for later statistical estimation of unobserved in vivo neurohormone secretion and within-axis, dose-responsive interfaces in health and disease. Explication of the core dynamics of the stress-responsive corticotropic axis based on secure physiological precepts should help to unveil new biomedical hypotheses of stressor-specific system failure.

The affective component of pain in rodents: Direct evidence for a contribution of the anterior cingulate cortex

Numerous human and animal studies indirectly implicate neurons in the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) in the encoding of the affective consequences of nociceptor stimulation. No causal evidence, however, has been put forth linking the ACC specifically to this function. Using a rodent pain assay that combines the hind-paw formalin model with the place-conditioning paradigm, we measured a learned behavior that directly reflects the affective component of pain in the rat (formalin-induced conditioned place avoidance) concomitantly with “acute” formalin-induced nociceptive behaviors (paw lifting, licking, and flinching) that reflect the intensity and localization of the nociceptive stimulus. Destruction of neurons originating from the rostral, but not caudal, ACC reduced formalin-induced conditioned place avoidance without reducing acute pain-related behaviors. These results provide evidence indicating that neurons in the ACC are necessary for the “aversiveness” of nociceptor stimulation.

Polarimetric SAR model for soil moisture estimation over vineyards at C-band

In this paper we propose a two-component polarimetric model for soil moisture estimation on vineyards suited for C-band radar data. According to a polarimetric analysis carried out here, this scenario is made up of one dominant direct return from the soil and a multiple scattering component accounting for disturbing and nonmodeled signal fluctuations from soil and short vegetation. We propose a combined X-Bragg/Fresnel approach to characterize the polarized direct response from soil. A validation of this polarimetric model has been performed in terms of its consistency with respect to the available data both from RADARSAT-2 and from indoor measurements. High inversion rates are reported for different phenological stages of vines, and the model gives a consistent interpretation of the data as long as the volume component power remains about or below 50% of the surface contribution power. However, the scarcity of soil moisture measurements in this study prevents the validation of the algorithm in terms of the accuracy of soil moisture retrieval and an extensive campaign is required to fully demonstrate the validity of the model. Different sources of mismatches between the model and the data have been also discussed and analyzed.

Crop Phenology Estimation Using a Multitemporal Model and a Kalman Filtering Strategy

In this letter, a new approach for crop phenology estimation with remote sensing is presented. The proposed methodology is aimed to exploit tools from a dynamical system context. From a temporal sequence of images, a geometrical model is derived, which allows us to translate this temporal domain into the estimation problem. The evolution model in state space is obtained through dimensional reduction by a principal component analysis, defining the state variables, of the observations. Then, estimation is achieved by combining the generated model with actual samples in an optimal way using a Kalman filter. As a proof of concept, an example with results obtained with this approach over rice fields by exploiting stacks of TerraSAR-X dual polarization images is shown.

A hydrological–economic model for sustainable groundwater use in sparse-data drylands: Application to the Amtoudi Oasis in southern Morocco, northern Sahara

A hydrological–economic model is introduced to describe the dynamics of groundwater-dependent economics (agriculture and tourism) for sustainable use in sparse-data drylands. The Amtoudi Oasis, a remote area in southern Morocco, in the northern Sahara attractive for tourism and with evidence of groundwater degradation, was chosen to show the model operation. Governing system variables were identified and put into action through System Dynamics (SD) modeling causal diagrams to program basic formulations into a model having two modules coupled by the nexus ‘pumping’: (1) the hydrological module represents the net groundwater balance (G) dynamics; and (2) the economic module reproduces the variation in the consumers of water, both the population and tourists. The model was operated under similar influx of tourists and different scenarios of water availability, such as the wet 2009–2010 and the average 2010–2011 hydrological years. The rise in international tourism is identified as the main driving force reducing emigration and introducing new social habits in the population, in particular concerning water consumption. Urban water allotment (PU) was doubled for less than a 100-inhabitant net increase in recent decades. The water allocation for agriculture (PI), the largest consumer of water, had remained constant for decades. Despite that the 2-year monitoring period is not long enough to draw long-term conclusions, groundwater imbalance was reflected by net aquifer recharge (R) less than PI + PU (G < 0) in the average year 2010–2011, with net lateral inflow from adjacent Cambrian formations being the largest recharge component. R is expected to be much less than PI + PU in recurrent dry spells. Some low-technology actions are tentatively proposed to mitigate groundwater degradation, such as: wastewater capture, treatment, and reuse for irrigation; storm-water harvesting for irrigation; and active maintenance of the irrigation system to improve its efficiency.

CPRPLOT2: Stata module to graph component-plus-residual plots for transformed regressors

cprplot2 is a variation of official Stata's cprplot and is used for graphing component-plus-residual plots (a.k.a. partial residual plots). Additional features (compared to cprplot): (1) cprplot2 can handle variables that enter the model repeatedly via different transformations (for example, polynomials). (2) cprplot2 can display component-plus-residual plots using the original units for transformed variables in the model. (3) A wrapper is provided to quickly display several component-plus-residual plots in a single image.