Partitioning, bioavailability and effects of oestrogens and xeno-oestrogens in the aquatic environment

This review provides insights into the distribution and impact of oestrogens and xeno-oestrogens in the aquatic environment and highlights some significant knowledge gaps in our understanding of endocrine disrupting chemicals. Key areas of uncertainty in the assessment of risk include the role of estuarine sediments in mediating the fate and bioavailability of environmental (xeno)oestrogens (notably their transfer to benthic organisms and estuarine food chains), together with evidence for endocrine disruption in invertebrate populations. Emphasis is placed on using published information to interpret the behaviour and effects of a small number of model compounds thought to contribute to oestrogenic effects in nature; namely, the natural steroid 17 beta -oestradiol (E2) and the synthetic hormone 17 alpha -ethinyloestradiol (EE2), together with the alkyl-phenols octyl- and nonyl-phenol (OP, NP) as oestrogen mimics. Individual sections of the review are devoted to sources and concentrations of (xeno)oestrogens in waterways, sediment partitioning and persistence, bioaccumulation rates and routes, assays and biomarkers of oestrogenicity, and, finally, a synopsis of reproductive and ecological effects in aquatic species.

Quantification of oxygenated volatile organic compounds in seawater by membrane inlet-proton transfer reaction/mass spectrometry

The role of the ocean in the cycling of oxygenated volatile organic compounds (OVOCs) remains largely unanswered due to a paucity of datasets. We describe the method development of a membrane inlet-proton transfer reaction/mass spectrometer (MI-PTR/MS) as an efficient method of analysing methanol, acetaldehyde and acetone in seawater. Validation of the technique with water standards shows that the optimised responses are linear and reproducible. Limits of detection are 27 nM for methanol, 0.7 nM for acetaldehyde and 0.3 nM for acetone. Acetone and acetaldehyde concentrations generated by MI-PTR/MS are compared to a second, independent method based on purge and trap-gas chromatography/flame ionisation detection (P&T-GC/FID) and show excellent agreement. Chromatographic separation of isomeric species acetone and propanal permits correction to mass 59 signal generated by the PTR/MS and overcomes a known uncertainty in reporting acetone concentrations via mass spectrometry. A third bioassay technique using radiolabelled acetone further supported the result generated by this method. We present the development and optimisation of the MI-PTR/MS technique as a reliable and convenient tool for analysing seawater samples for these trace gases. We compare this method with other analytical techniques and discuss its potential use in improving the current understanding of the cycling of oceanic OVOCs.

Potential Climate Change Effects on the Habitat of Antarctic Krill in the Weddell Quadrant of the Southern Ocean

Antarctic krill is a cold water species, an increasingly important fishery resource and a major prey item for many fish, birds and mammals in the Southern Ocean. The fishery and the summer foraging sites of many of these predators are concentrated between 0 degrees and 90 degrees W. Parts of this quadrant have experienced recent localised sea surface warming of up to 0.2 degrees C per decade, and projections suggest that further widespread warming of 0.27 degrees to 1.08 degrees C will occur by the late 21st century. We assessed the potential influence of this projected warming on Antarctic krill habitat with a statistical model that links growth to temperature and chlorophyll concentration. The results divide the quadrant into two zones: a band around the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in which habitat quality is particularly vulnerable to warming, and a southern area which is relatively insensitive. Our analysis suggests that the direct effects of warming could reduce the area of growth habitat by up to 20%. The reduction in growth habitat within the range of predators, such as Antarctic fur seals, that forage from breeding sites on South Georgia could be up to 55%, and the habitat's ability to support Antarctic krill biomass production within this range could be reduced by up to 68%. Sensitivity analysis suggests that the effects of a 50% change in summer chlorophyll concentration could be more significant than the direct effects of warming. A reduction in primary production could lead to further habitat degradation but, even if chlorophyll increased by 50%, projected warming would still cause some degradation of the habitat accessible to predators. While there is considerable uncertainty in these projections, they suggest that future climate change could have a significant negative effect on Antarctic krill growth habitat and, consequently, on Southern Ocean biodiversity and ecosystem services.

Estimation of atmospheric nutrient inputs to the Atlantic Ocean from 50°N to 50°S based on large-scale field sampling: Iron and other dust-associated elements

Atmospheric inputs of mineral dust supply iron and other trace metals to the remote ocean and can influence the marine carbon cycle due to iron's role as a potentially limiting micronutrient. Dust generation, transport, and deposition are highly heterogeneous, and there are very few remote marine locations where dust concentrations and chemistry (e.g., iron solubility) are routinely monitored. Here we use aerosol and rainwater samples collected during 10 large-scale research cruises to estimate the atmospheric input of iron, aluminum, and manganese to four broad regions of the Atlantic Ocean over two 3 month periods for the years 2001–2005. We estimate total inputs of these metals to our study regions to be 4.2, 17, and 0.27 Gmol in April–June and 4.9, 14, and 0.19 Gmol in September–November, respectively. Inputs were highest in regions of high rainfall (the intertropical convergence zone and South Atlantic storm track), and rainfall contributed higher proportions of total input to wetter regions. By combining input estimates for total and soluble metals for these time periods, we calculated overall percentage solubilities for each metal that account for the contributions from both wet and dry depositions and the relative contributions from different aerosol types. Calculated solubilities were in the range 2.4%–9.1% for iron, 6.1%–15% for aluminum, and 54%–73% for manganese. We discuss sources of uncertainty in our estimates and compare our results to some recent estimates of atmospheric iron input to the Atlantic.

The Ocean Colour Climate Change Initiative: III. A round-robin comparison on in-water bio-optical algorithms

Satellite-derived remote-sensing reflectance (Rrs) can be used for mapping biogeochemically relevant variables, such as the chlorophyll concentration and the Inherent Optical Properties (IOPs) of the water, at global scale for use in climate-change studies. Prior to generating such products, suitable algorithms have to be selected that are appropriate for the purpose. Algorithm selection needs to account for both qualitative and quantitative requirements. In this paper we develop an objective methodology designed to rank the quantitative performance of a suite of bio-optical models. The objective classification is applied using the NASA bio-Optical Marine Algorithm Dataset (NOMAD). Using in situRrs as input to the models, the performance of eleven semi-analytical models, as well as five empirical chlorophyll algorithms and an empirical diffuse attenuation coefficient algorithm, is ranked for spectrally-resolved IOPs, chlorophyll concentration and the diffuse attenuation coefficient at 489 nm. The sensitivity of the objective classification and the uncertainty in the ranking are tested using a Monte-Carlo approach (bootstrapping). Results indicate that the performance of the semi-analytical models varies depending on the product and wavelength of interest. For chlorophyll retrieval, empirical algorithms perform better than semi-analytical models, in general. The performance of these empirical models reflects either their immunity to scale errors or instrument noise in Rrs data, or simply that the data used for model parameterisation were not independent of NOMAD. Nonetheless, uncertainty in the classification suggests that the performance of some semi-analytical algorithms at retrieving chlorophyll is comparable with the empirical algorithms. For phytoplankton absorption at 443 nm, some semi-analytical models also perform with similar accuracy to an empirical model. We discuss the potential biases, limitations and uncertainty in the approach, as well as additional qualitative considerations for algorithm selection for climate-change studies. Our classification has the potential to be routinely implemented, such that the performance of emerging algorithms can be compared with existing algorithms as they become available. In the long-term, such an approach will further aid algorithm development for ocean-colour studies.

Implementing a resuscitation policy for patients at the end of life in an acute hospital setting: qualitative study

Objective : To explore attitudes and experiences of doctors and nurses regarding cardiopulmonary resuscitation for patients with end stage illness in an acute hospital. Design : Qualitative study; thematic analysis of two audio-taped focus groups and four semi-structured interviews. Setting : Acute district hospital, Northern Ireland. Participants : Seven nurses and nine doctors; varying nationality, gender and years of professional experience; involved in cardiopulmonary resuscitation decision-making. Results : Participants reported different interpretations of resuscitation policy and of what do not attempt to resuscitate (DNAR) decisions meant in relation to practical care for patients. This confusion in translating policy into practice contributed to communication difficulties in initiating, documenting and implementing cardiopulmonary resuscitation decisions. Participants were aware of how clinical conditions could change and reported uncertainty in determining end stage illness; they expressed fears of potential consequences of DNAR decisions for patients' care. The more disease-centred approach of doctors to patients' management, compared to nurses' more patient-centred approach, contributed to inter-professional conflict within teams. Doctors identified training needs in applying resuscitation policy and ethical principles in `real life' and nurses identified a need for ongoing professional support, which was perceived as being less available to junior doctors. Personal relationships between staff and patients, cultural reluctance to address sensitive issues and local community expectations of relatives being involved in decisions added to policy implementation difficulties. Conclusions : The findings indicate a need for ongoing staff support and training in applying resuscitation policy to decisions for patients with end stage illness in an acute hospital. They support suggestions that reviews of local resuscitation policy and of national guidelines should be undertaken with openness and honesty regarding the goals, opportunities and difficulties involved in trying to deliver good end of life care in local settings. Palliative Medicine 2007; 21 : 305—312 Key Words: do not attempt resuscitation (DNAR) • end stage illness • inter-professional • policy • resuscitation decisions

Li-6 in the atmosphere of GJ 117 revisited

Detection of Li-6 has been shown for energetic solar events, one chromospherically active binary, and several dwarf halo stars. We had previously found a Li-6/Li-7 = 0.03 +/- 0.01 for active K dwarf GJ 117 using VLT UVES observations. Here we present high signal-to-noise (> 1000) high spectral resolution observations taken with the McDonald Observatory's 2.7 m and echelle spectrometer of GJ 117. We have used the solar spectrum and template stars to eliminate possible blends, such as Ti I, in the Li-6 spectral region. Our new analysis, using an updated PHOENIX model atmosphere, finds Li-6/Li-7 = 0.05 +/- 0.02. In addition, bisector analysis showed no significant red asymmetries that would affect the lithium line profile. No changes above the statistical uncertainties are found between the VLT and McDonald data. The amount of Li-6 derived for GJ 117 is consistent with creation in spallation reactions on the stellar surface, but we caution that uncertainties in the continuum level may cause additional uncertainty in the Li-6 fraction.

Unconscious Vigilance: Worldview Defense without Adaptations for Terror, Coalition or Uncertainty Management

Individuals subtly reminded of death, coalitional challenges, or feelings of uncertainty display exaggerated preferences for affirmations and against criticisms of their cultural in-groups. Terror management, coalitional psychology, and uncertainty management theories postulate this “worldview defense” effectas the output of mechanisms evolved either to allay the fear of death, foster social support, or reduce anxiety by increasing adherence to cultural values. In 4 studies, we report evidence for an alternative perspective. We argue that worldview defense owes to unconscious vigilance, a state of accentuatedreactivity to affective targets (which need not relate to cultural worldviews) that follows detection of subtle alarm cues (which need not pertain to death, coalitional challenges, or uncertainty). In Studies 1 and 2, death-primed participants produced exaggerated ratings of worldview-neutral affective targets. In Studies 3 and 4, subliminal threat manipulations unrelated to death, coalitional challenges, or uncertaintyevoked worldview defense. These results are discussed as they inform evolutionary interpretations of worldview defense and future investigations of the influence of unconscious alarm on judgment.

Merging Knowledge Bases in Possibilistic Logic by Lexicographic Aggregation

Belief merging is an important but difficult problem in Artificial Intelligence, especially when sources of information are pervaded with uncertainty. Many merging operators have been proposed to deal with this problem in possibilistic logic, a weighted logic which is powerful for handling inconsistency and deal-ing with uncertainty. They often result in a possibilistic knowledge base which is a set of weighted formulas. Although possibilistic logic is inconsistency tolerant, it suffers from the well-known "drowning effect". Therefore, we may still want to obtain a consistent possibilistic knowledge base as the result of merging. In such a case, we argue that it is not always necessary to keep weighted information after merging. In this paper, we define a merging operator that maps a set of possibilistic knowledge bases and a formula representing the integrity constraints to a classical knowledge base by using lexicographic ordering. We show that it satisfies nine postulates that generalize basic postulates for propositional merging given in [11]. These postulates capture the principle of minimal change in some sense. We then provide an algorithm for generating the resulting knowledge base of our merging operator. Finally, we discuss the compatibility of our merging operator with propositional merging and establish the advantage of our merging operator over existing semantic merging operators in the propositional case.

Web Services and Incerta Spiriti: A Game Theoretic Approach to Uncertainty

A web-service is a remote computational facility which is made available for general use by means of the internet. An orchestration is a multi-threaded computation which invokes remote services. In this paper game theory is used to analyse the behaviour of orchestration evaluations when underlying web-services are unreliable. Uncertainty profiles are proposed as a means of defining bounds on the number of service failures that can be expected during an orchestration evaluation. An uncertainty profile describes a strategic situation that can be analyzed using a zero-sum angel-daemon game with two competing players: an angel a whose objective is to minimize damage to an orchestration and a daemon d who acts in a destructive fashion. An uncertainty profile is assessed using the value of its angel daemon game. It is shown that uncertainty profiles form a partial order which is monotonic with respect to assessment.

A lesson in business: cost-effectiveness analysis of a novel financial incentive intervention for increasing physical activity in the workplace

Background: Recently both the UK and US governments have advocated the use of financial incentives to encourage healthier lifestyle choices but evidence for the cost-effectiveness of such interventions is lacking. Our aim was to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) of a quasi-experimental trial, exploring the use of financial incentives to increase employee physical activity levels, from a healthcare and employer’s perspective.

Methods: Employees used a ‘loyalty card’ to objectively monitor their physical activity at work over 12 weeks. The Incentive Group (n=199) collected points and received rewards for minutes of physical activity completed. The No Incentive Group (n=207) self-monitored their physical activity only. Quality of life (QOL) and absenteeism were assessed at baseline and 6 months follow-up. QOL scores were also converted into productivity estimates using a validated algorithm. The additional costs of the Incentive Group were divided by the additional quality adjusted life years (QALYs) or productivity gained to calculate incremental cost effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Cost-effectiveness acceptability curves (CEACs) and population expected value of perfect information (EVPI) was used to characterize and value the uncertainty in our estimates.

Results: The Incentive Group performed more physical activity over 12 weeks and by 6 months had achieved greater gains in QOL and productivity, although these mean differences were not statistically significant. The ICERs were £2,900/QALY and £2,700 per percentage increase in overall employee productivity. Whilst the confidence intervals surrounding these ICERs were wide, CEACs showed a high chance of the intervention being cost-effective at low willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds.

Conclusions: The Physical Activity Loyalty card (PAL) scheme is potentially cost-effective from both a healthcare and employer’s perspective but further research is warranted to reduce uncertainty in our results. It is based on a sustainable “business model” which should become more cost-effective as it is delivered to more participants and can be adapted to suit other health behaviors and settings. This comes at a time when both UK and US governments are encouraging business involvement in tackling public health challenges.

Trends in Economic Stress and the Great Recession in Ireland: An Analysis of the CSO Survey in Income and Living Conditions (SILC)

Since 2008, Ireland has experienced the most severe economic and labour market crisis since the foundation of the State. These economic and labour market changes have had a stark impact on the standard of living across the Irish population. The rapid deterioration in the labour market, the rising level of household indebtedness and stringent austerity measures to plug the public finance deficit have had a widespread impact yet there is debate about where the heaviest burden has fallen and where the economic stress has been felt most. The paper analyses data from the Survey of Income and Living Conditions for the period 2004 to 2011. The aim of the paper is to develop and test a measure of economic stress, which will capture some of the aspects of the rapid change in economic fortunes on Irish households that are not picked up by income alone. This includes tapping into features of the recession such as debt problems, unsustainable housing costs, and other difficulties associated with managing on reduced household income in a period of uncertainty. In testing such a measure we examine trends over time from boom to bust in the Irish economy and consider how economic stress is distributed across different socio-economic groups. The paper explores the distribution and level of economic stress across income class groups, social classes and the life-course and tests the thesis of ‘middle class squeeze’.