Growth rate and vertical propagation of the initial error in baroclinic models

The present study investigates the growth of error in baroclinic waves. It is found that stable or neutral waves are particularly sensitive to errors in the initial condition. Short stable waves are mainly sensitive to phase errors and the ultra long waves to amplitude errors. Analysis simulation experiments have indicated that the amplitudes of the very long waves become usually too small in the free atmosphere, due to the sparse and very irregular distribution of upper air observations. This also applies to the four-dimensional data assimilation experiments, since the amplitudes of the very long waves are usually underpredicted. The numerical experiments reported here show that if the very long waves have these kinds of amplitude errors in the upper troposphere or lower stratosphere the error is rapidly propagated (within a day or two) to the surface and to the lower troposphere.

Spectral gap for Glauber type dynamics for a special class of potentials

We consider an equilibrium birth and death type process for a particle system in infinite volume, the latter is described by the space of all locally finite point configurations on Rd. These Glauber type dynamics are Markov processes constructed for pre-given reversible measures. A representation for the ``carré du champ'' and ``second carré du champ'' for the associate infinitesimal generators L are calculated in infinite volume and for a large class of functions in a generalized sense. The corresponding coercivity identity is derived and explicit sufficient conditions for the appearance and bounds for the size of the spectral gap of L are given. These techniques are applied to Glauber dynamics associated to Gibbs measure and conditions are derived extending all previous known results and, in particular, potentials with negative parts can now be treated. The high temperature regime is extended essentially and potentials with non-trivial negative part can be included. Furthermore, a special class of potentials is defined for which the size of the spectral gap is as least as large as for the free system and, surprisingly, the spectral gap is independent of the activity. This type of potentials should not show any phase transition for a given temperature at any activity.

Estimating interchannel observation-error correlations for IASI radiance data in the Met Office system

The optimal utilisation of hyper-spectral satellite observations in numerical weather prediction is often inhibited by incorrectly assuming independent interchannel observation errors. However, in order to represent these observation-error covariance structures, an accurate knowledge of the true variances and correlations is needed. This structure is likely to vary with observation type and assimilation system. The work in this article presents the initial results for the estimation of IASI interchannel observation-error correlations when the data are processed in the Met Office one-dimensional (1D-Var) and four-dimensional (4D-Var) variational assimilation systems. The method used to calculate the observation errors is a post-analysis diagnostic which utilises the background and analysis departures from the two systems. The results show significant differences in the source and structure of the observation errors when processed in the two different assimilation systems, but also highlight some common features. When the observations are processed in 1D-Var, the diagnosed error variances are approximately half the size of the error variances used in the current operational system and are very close in size to the instrument noise, suggesting that this is the main source of error. The errors contain no consistent correlations, with the exception of a handful of spectrally close channels. When the observations are processed in 4D-Var, we again find that the observation errors are being overestimated operationally, but the overestimation is significantly larger for many channels. In contrast to 1D-Var, the diagnosed error variances are often larger than the instrument noise in 4D-Var. It is postulated that horizontal errors of representation, not seen in 1D-Var, are a significant contributor to the overall error here. Finally, observation errors diagnosed from 4D-Var are found to contain strong, consistent correlation structures for channels sensitive to water vapour and surface properties.

The error of representation: basic understanding

Representation error arises from the inability of the forecast model to accurately simulate the climatology of the truth. We present a rigorous framework for understanding this kind of error of representation. This framework shows that the lack of an inverse in the relationship between the true climatology (true attractor) and the forecast climatology (forecast attractor) leads to the error of representation. A new gain matrix for the data assimilation problem is derived that illustrates the proper approaches one may take to perform Bayesian data assimilation when the observations are of states on one attractor but the forecast model resides on another. This new data assimilation algorithm is the optimal scheme for the situation where the distributions on the true attractor and the forecast attractors are separately Gaussian and there exists a linear map between them. The results of this theory are illustrated in a simple Gaussian multivariate model.

Flexible selection of a single treatment incorporating short-term endpoint information in a phase II/III clinical trial

Seamless phase II/III clinical trials in which an experimental treatment is selected at an interim analysis have been the focus of much recent research interest. Many of the methods proposed are based on the group sequential approach. This paper considers designs of this type in which the treatment selection can be based on short-term endpoint information for more patients than have primary endpoint data available. We show that in such a case, the familywise type I error rate may be inflated if previously proposed group sequential methods are used and the treatment selection rule is not specified in advance. A method is proposed to avoid this inflation by considering the treatment selection that maximises the conditional error given the data available at the interim analysis. A simulation study is reported that illustrates the type I error rate inflation and compares the power of the new approach with two other methods: a combination testing approach and a group sequential method that does not use the short-term endpoint data, both of which also strongly control the type I error rate. The new method is also illustrated through application to a study in Alzheimer's disease. © 2015 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Metacognition and proofreading: the roles of aging, motivation, and interest

Objectives: The current study examined younger and older adults’ error detection accuracy, prediction calibration, and postdiction calibration on a proofreading task, to determine if age-related difference would be present in this type of common error detection task. Method: Participants were given text passages, and were first asked to predict the percentage of errors they would detect in the passage. They then read the passage and circled errors (which varied in complexity and locality), and made postdictions regarding their performance, before repeating this with another passage and answering a comprehension test of both passages. Results: There were no age-related differences in error detection accuracy, text comprehension, or metacognitive calibration, though participants in both age groups were overconfident overall in their metacognitive judgments. Both groups gave similar ratings of motivation to complete the task. The older adults rated the passages as more interesting than younger adults did, although this level of interest did not appear to influence error-detection performance. Discussion: The age equivalence in both proofreading ability and calibration suggests that the ability to proofread text passages and the associated metacognitive monitoring used in judging one’s own performance are maintained in aging. These age-related similarities persisted when younger adults completed the proofreading tasks on a computer screen, rather than with paper and pencil. The findings provide novel insights regarding the influence that cognitive aging may have on metacognitive accuracy and text processing in an everyday task.

Inference and local influence assessment in skew-normal null intercept measurement error model

In this article, we discuss inferential aspects of the measurement error regression models with null intercepts when the unknown quantity x (latent variable) follows a skew normal distribution. We examine first the maximum-likelihood approach to estimation via the EM algorithm by exploring statistical properties of the model considered. Then, the marginal likelihood, the score function and the observed information matrix of the observed quantities are presented allowing direct inference implementation. In order to discuss some diagnostics techniques in this type of models, we derive the appropriate matrices to assessing the local influence on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes. The results and methods developed in this paper are illustrated considering part of a real data set used by Hadgu and Koch [1999, Application of generalized estimating equations to a dental randomized clinical trial. Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics, 9, 161-178].

A robust Bayesian approach to null intercept measurement error model with application to dental data

Measurement error models often arise in epidemiological and clinical research. Usually, in this set up it is assumed that the latent variable has a normal distribution. However, the normality assumption may not be always correct. Skew-normal/independent distribution is a class of asymmetric thick-tailed distributions which includes the Skew-normal distribution as a special case. In this paper, we explore the use of skew-normal/independent distribution as a robust alternative to null intercept measurement error model under a Bayesian paradigm. We assume that the random errors and the unobserved value of the covariate (latent variable) follows jointly a skew-normal/independent distribution, providing an appealing robust alternative to the routine use of symmetric normal distribution in this type of model. Specific distributions examined include univariate and multivariate versions of the skew-normal distribution, the skew-t distributions, the skew-slash distributions and the skew contaminated normal distributions. The methods developed is illustrated using a real data set from a dental clinical trial. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of the season of the year, truck type and location on truck on skin bruises and meat quality in pigs

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of the season of the year (summer vs winter), type of truck (A: single decker vs B : double-decker) and pig location on the truck (front, middle, rear) on the incidence of skin bruising and pork quality variation. For this purpose, 2660 gilts of an average weight of 126.7 (+/- 6.6) kg originating from 19 different farms were used. No interaction between season of the year, type of truck and location on truck was observed. A higher number of bruises on the body at unloading and slaughter (P < 0.0001) and a higher number of bruises on the carcass (P < 0.01) were observed in winter. At unloading a higher number of bruises on the body and on the carcass after slaughter was observed in pigs transported on Truck A (P=0.004 and P=0.05). A higher, although not significant, number of bruises was found on the body of pigs transported in the rear compartment of both trucks. Higher paleness value was found in the longissimus and semimembranosus muscles in summer (P=0.0001) than in winter. Cold and heat stress have a negative influence on skin bruises and meat quality, respectively. Poor vehicle design increases the incidence of bruised carcasses without detracting from pork quality regardless of the climate conditions tested and location of the animal it] the truck. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparison of non-linear growth models to describe the growth curve in West African Dwarf sheep

The objectives of this study were to compare the goodness of fit of four non-linear growth models, i.e. Brody, Gompertz, Logistic and Von Bertalanffy, in West African Dwarf (WAD) sheep. A total of 5274 monthly weight records from birth up to 180 days of age from 889 lambs, collected during 2001 to 2004 in Betecoucou breeding farm in Benin were used. In the preliminary analysis, the General Linear Model Procedure of the Statistical Analysis Systems Institute was applied to the dataset to identify the significant effects of the sex of lamb (male and female), type of birth (single and twin), season of birth (rainy season and dry season), parity of dam (1, 2 and 3) and year of birth (2001, 2002, 2003 and 2004) on the observed birth weight and monthly weight up to 6 months of age. The models parameters (A, B and k), coefficient of determination (112), mean square error (MSE) were calculated using language of technical computing package Matlab(R), 2006. The mean values of A, B and k were substituted into each model to calculate the corresponding Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC). Among the four growth functions, the Brody model has been selected for its accuracy of fit according to the higher R(2), lower MSE and A/C Finally, the parameters A, B and k were adjusted in Matlab(R) 2006 for the sex of lamb, year of birth, season of birth, birth type and the parity of ewe, providing a specific slope of the Brody growth curve. The results of this study suggest that Brody model can be useful for WAD sheep breeding in Betecoucou farm conditions through growth monitoring.

The field resistance of potato cultivars to foliar late blight and its relationship with foliage maturity type and skin type in Brazil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Application of ionospheric corrections in the equatorial region for L1 GPS users

In the absence of the selective availability, which was turned off on May 1, 2000, the ionosphere can be the largest source of error in GPS positioning and navigation. Its effects on GPS observable cause a code delays and phase advances. The magnitude of this error is affected by the local time of the day, season, solar cycle, geographical location of the receiver and Earth's magnetic field. As it is well known, the ionosphere is the main drawback for high accuracy positioning, when using single frequency receivers, either for point positioning or relative positioning of medium and long baselines. The ionosphere effects were investigated in the determination of point positioning and relative positioning using single frequency data. A model represented by a Fourier series type was implemented and the parameters were estimated from data collected at the active stations of RBMC (Brazilian Network for Continuous Monitoring of GPS satellites). The data input were the pseudorange observables filtered by the carrier phase. Quality control was implemented in order to analyse the adjustment and to validate the significance of the estimated parameters. Experiments were carried out in the equatorial region, using data collected from dual frequency receivers. In order to validate the model, the estimated values were compared with ground truth. For point and relative positioning of baselines of approximately 100 km, the values of the discrepancies indicated an error reduction better than 80% and 50% respectively, compared to the processing without the ionospheric model. These results give an indication that more research has to be done in order to provide support to the L1 GPS users in the Equatorial region.

Evaluation of the Cartographic Communication Performance of a Route Guidance and Navigation System

This study evaluates the influence of different cartographic representations of in-car navigation systems on visual demand, subjective preference, and navigational error. It takes into account the type and complexity of the representation, maneuvering complexity, road layout, and driver gender. A group of 28 drivers (14 male and 14 female) participated in this experiment which was performed in a low-cost driving simulator. The tests were performed on a limited number of instances for each type of representation, and their purpose was to carry out a preliminary assessment and provide future avenues for further studies. Data collected for the visual demand study were analyzed using non-parametric statistical analyses. Results confirmed previous research that showed that different levels of design complexity significantly influence visual demand. Non-grid-like road networks, for example, influence significantly visual demand and navigational error. An analysis of simple maneuvers on a grid-like road network showed that static and blinking arrows did not present significant differences. From the set of representations analyzed to assess visual demand, both arrows were equally efficient. From a gender perspective, women seem to took at the display more than men, but this factor was not significant. With respect to subjective preferences, drivers prefer representations with mimetic landmarks when they perform straight-ahead tasks. For maneuvering tasks, landmarks in a perspective model created higher visual demands.

Rehabilitation of Atrophic Maxilla Using the Combination of Autogenous and Allogeneic Bone Grafts Followed by Protocol-Type Prosthesis

Currently, there are several techniques for the rehabilitation of atrophic maxillary ridges in literature. The grafting procedure using autogenous bone is considered ideal by many researchers, as it shows osteogenic capability and causes no antigenic reaction. However, this type of bone graft has some shortcomings, mainly the restricted availability of donor sites. In recent years, several alternatives have been investigated to supply the disadvantages of autogenous bone grafts. In such studies, allogeneic bone grafts, which are obtained from individuals with different genetic load, but from the same species, have been extensively used. They can be indicated in cases of arthroplasty, surgical knee reconstruction, large bone defects, and in oral and maxillofacial reconstruction. Besides showing great applicability and biocompatibility, this type of bone is available in unlimited quantities. on the other hand, allogeneic bone may have the disadvantage of transmitting infectious diseases. Atrophic maxillae can be treated with bone grafts followed by osseointegrated implants to obtain aesthetic and functional oral rehabilitation. This study aimed to show the viability of allogeneic bone grafting in an atrophic maxilla, followed by oral rehabilitation with dental implant and protocol-type prosthesis within a 3-year follow-up period by means of a clinical case report.

AN EXTREMELY LARGE, CAULIFLOWER-TYPE, CUTANEOUS METASTASIS OF OVARIAN-CANCER ASSOCIATED WITH GOOD PROGNOSIS

We report an unusual case of a 37-year-old woman who presented in 1980 with a serous papillary cystadenocarcinoma of the ovary. The patient refused any treatment and the patient was lost to follow-up for 6 years. After this period of time she returned with an extremely large, cutaneous, cauliflower-type of metastasis located in the lower abdominal wall and measuring 20 x 20 cm. She received two courses of chemotherapy treatment consisting of intraperitoneal cisplatin (100 mg/m2) and intravenous epirubicin (50 mg/m2) every 3 weeks. After the second course of chemotherapy she received cobalt radiotherapy (5000 cGy). Subsequently, she received four more courses of chemotherapy with dramatic remission of the cutaneous metastasis. Shortly after chemotherapy, the patient underwent a laparotomy consisting of the resection of the abdominal wall including the cutaneous metastasis completed by total abdominal hysterectomy, bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy, and omentectomy. The patient is well after the surgery and without any evidence of residual disease after 6 years of follow up. This description illustrates a rare example of ovarian cancer with skin metastases and favorable outcome. (C) 1994 Academic Press, Inc.