Predictors of HIV-1 slow progression among vertically infected children in Botswana

HIV-1 infected children display a highly variable rate of progression to AIDS. Data about reasons underlying the variable progression to AIDS among vertically-infected children is sparse, and the few studies that have examined this important question have almost exclusively been done in the developed world. This is despite the fact that Sub-Saharan Africa is home to over 90% of all HIV infected children around the world.^ The main objective of this study was to examine predictors of HIV-1 slow progression among vertically infected children in Botswana, using a case control design. Cases (slow progressors) and controls (rapid progressors) were drawn from medical records of HIV-1 infected children being followed up for routine care and treatment at the BBCCCOE between February 2003 and February 2011. Univariate and Multivariate Logistic Regression Analyses were performed to identify independent predictors of slow disease progression and control for confounding respectively. ^ The study population comprised of 152 cases and 201 controls with ages ranging from 6 months to 16 years at baseline. Low baseline HIV-1 RNA viral load was the strongest independent predictor of slow progression (adjusted OR = 5.52, 95% CI = 2.75-11.07; P <0.001). Other independent predictors of slow disease progression identified were: lack of history of PMTCT with single dose Nevirapine plus Zidovudine (adjusted OR = 4.45, 95% CI = 1.45-13.69; P = 0.009) and maternal vital status (alive) (adjusted OR = 2.46, 95% CI = 1.51-4.01; P < 0.00 ).^ The results of this study may help clinicians and policy-makers in resource-limited settings to identify, at baseline, which children are at highest risk of rapid progression to AIDS and thus prioritize them for immediate intervention with HAART and other measures that would mitigate disease progression. At the same time HAART may be delayed among children who are at lower risk of disease progression. This would enable the highly affected, yet impoverished, Sub-Saharan African countries to use their scarce resources more efficiently which may in turn ensure that their National Antiretroviral Therapy Programs become more sustainable. Delaying HAART among the low-risk children would also lower the occurrence of adverse drug reactions associated with antiretroviral drugs exposure.^ Keywords. Slow Progressors, Rapid Progressors, HIV-1, Predictors, Children, Vertical Transmission, Sub-Saharan Africa^

Regression with autocorrelated data: A study of time trend of global infant mortality rate

The infant mortality rate (IMR) is considered to be one of the most important indices of a country's well-being. Countries around the world and other health organizations like the World Health Organization are dedicating their resources, knowledge and energy to reduce the infant mortality rates. The well-known Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4), whose aim is to archive a two thirds reduction of the under-five mortality rate between 1990 and 2015, is an example of the commitment. ^ In this study our goal is to model the trends of IMR between the 1950s to 2010s for selected countries. We would like to know how the IMR is changing overtime and how it differs across countries. ^ IMR data collected over time forms a time series. The repeated observations of IMR time series are not statistically independent. So in modeling the trend of IMR, it is necessary to account for these correlations. We proposed to use the generalized least squares method in general linear models setting to deal with the variance-covariance structure in our model. In order to estimate the variance-covariance matrix, we referred to the time-series models, especially the autoregressive and moving average models. Furthermore, we will compared results from general linear model with correlation structure to that from ordinary least squares method without taking into account the correlation structure to check how significantly the estimates change.^

Megabenthic communities in the waters around Svalbard during POLARSTERN cruise ARK-VIII/2 (EPOS II)

Composition and distribution of megabenthic communities around Svalbard were investigated in June/July 1991 with 20 Agassiz trawl and 5 bottom trawl hauls in depths between 100 and 2100 m. About 370 species, ranging from sponges to fish, were identified in the catches. Species numbers per station ranged from 21 to 86. Brittle stars, such as Ophiacantha bidentata, Ophiura sarsi and Ophiocten sericeum, were most important in terms of constancy and relative abundance in the catches. Other prominent faunal elements were eunephthyid alcyonarians, bivalves, shrimps, sea stars and fish (Gadidae, Zoarcidae, Cottidae). Multivariate analyses of the species and environmental data sets showed that the spatial distribution of the megabenthos was characterized by a pronounced depth zonation: abyssal, bathyal, off-shore shelf and fjordic communities were discriminated. However, a gradient in sediment properties, especially the organic carbon content, seemed to superimpose on the bathymetric pattern. Both main factors are interpreted as proxies of the average food availability, which is, hence, suggested to have the strongest influence in structuring megabenthic communities off Svalbard.

Organic temperature proxies in the subpolat region around Iceland

Subpolar regions are key areas to study natural climate variability, due to their high sensitivity to rapid environmental changes, particularly through sea surface temperature (SST) variations. Here, we have tested three independent organic temperature proxies (UK'37, TEX86 and LDI) on their potential applicability for SST reconstruction in the subpolar region around Iceland. UK'37, TEX86 and TEXL86 temperature estimates from suspended particulate matter showed a substantial discrepancy with instrumental data, while long chain alkyl diols were below detection limit in most of the stations. In the northern Iceland Basin, sedimenting particles revealed a seasonality in lipid fluxes i.e. high fluxes of alkenones and GDGTs were measured during late spring-summer, and high fluxes of long chain alkyl diols during late summer. The flux-weighted average temperature estimates had a significant negative (ca. 2.3°C for UK'37) and positive (up to 5°C for TEX86) offset with satellite-derived SSTs and temperature estimates derived from the underlying surface sediment. UK'37 temperature estimates from surface sediments around Iceland correlate well with summer mean sea surface temperatures, while TEX86 derived temperatures correspond with both annual and winter mean 0-200 m temperatures, suggesting a subsurface temperature signal. Anomalous LDI-SST values in surface sediments, and low mass flux of 1,13- and 1,15-diols compared to 1,14-diols, suggest that Proboscia diatoms are the major sources of long chain alkyl diols in this area rather than eustigmatophyte algae, and therefore the LDI cannot be applied in this region.

Nd isotope data for planktonic foraminifera from within and around sapropels S1 and S5 from ODP Site 160-967

The development of widespread anoxic conditions in the deep oceans is evidenced by the accumulation and preservation of organic-carbon-rich sediments, but its precise cause remains controversial. The two most popular hypotheses involve (1) circulation-induced increased stratification resulting in reduced oxygenation of deep waters or (2) enhanced productivity in the surface ocean, increasing the raining down of organic matter and overwhelming the oxic remineralization potential of the deep ocean. In the periodic development of deep-water anoxia in the Pliocene-Pleistocene Mediterranean Sea, increased riverine runoff has been implicated both as a source for nutrients that fuel enhanced photic-zone productivity and a source of a less dense freshwater cap leading to reduced circulation, basin-wide stagnation, and deep-water oxygen starvation. Monsoon-driven increases in Nile River discharge and increased regional precipitation due to enhanced westerly activity-two mechanisms that represent fundamentally different climatic driving forces-have both been suggested as causes of the altered freshwater balance. Here we present data that confirm a distinctive neodymium (Nd) isotope signature for the Nile River relative to the Eastern Mediterranean-providing a new tracer of enhanced Nile outflow into the Mediterranean in the past. We further present Nd isotope data for planktonic foraminifera that suggest a clear increase in Nile discharge during the central intense period of two recent anoxic events. Our data also suggest, however, that other regional freshwater sources were more important at the beginning and end of the anoxic events. Taken at face value, the data appear to imply a temporal link between peaks in Nile discharge and enhanced westerly activity.

Primary production at time series station DYFAMED

Phytoplankton carbon assimilation has been measured near monthly using the 14C method at DYFAMED France JGOFS time-series station from 1993 to 1999. Data were obtained using the "LET GO" technique, which allowed in situ injection of bicarbonate and incubation in enclosures at 10 depths. Incubation duration was 4 h around noon, from which daily production was estimated. The seasonal variation of the depth-integrated carbon assimilation exhibits a marked cycle. Maximum values reach 1.8 g C/m**2/d in March or April; constant lower values were observed from August to January, in the range 100-300 mg C/m**2/d. The annual primary production vary in the range 86-232 g C/m**2/yr, in the upper range of older estimations. Primary production normalized to chlorophyll a shows maximum values in the period of oligotrophy. This increase of carbon assimilation rate per unit of chlorophyll a appears as linked to the period of phosphorus-limited ecosystem, and vertical distribution of taxonomic pigments suggests a possible role of cyanobacteria. Potential export production has been estimated from primary production data and Fp ratio based on pigments concentrations. These estimates (which imply biological steady state conditions) vary in a wide range, from 19 to 71 g C/m**2/yr. There is a decoupling between years with high potential export production and years with high measured particulate fluxes, which highlights the question of balance by resupply of the limiting nutrients and the role of dissolved organic carbon. A possible shift of primary production towards a more regeneration-dominated system is suggested for recent years.

(Data S1) Palynological analysis of IODP and ODP sediment cores around the Antarctic margin

The circum-Antarctic Southern Ocean is an important region for global marine food webs and carbon cycling because of sea-ice formation and its unique plankton ecosystem. However, the mechanisms underlying the installation of this distinct ecosystem and the geological timing of its development remain unknown. Here, we show, on the basis of fossil marine dinoflagellate cyst records, that a major restructuring of the Southern Ocean plankton ecosystem occurred abruptly and concomitant with the first major Antarctic glaciation in the earliest Oligocene (~33.6 million years ago). This turnover marks a regime shift in zooplankton-phytoplankton interactions and community structure, which indicates the appearance of eutrophic and seasonally productive environments on the Antarctic margin. We conclude that earliest Oligocene cooling, ice-sheet expansion, and subsequent sea-ice formation were important drivers of biotic evolution in the Southern Ocean.