Aggregate vs disaggregate data analysis: a paradox in the estimation of money demand function of Japan under the low interest rate policy

We investigate the issue of whether there was a stable money demand function for Japan in 1990's using both aggregate and disaggregate time series data. The aggregate data appears to support the contention that there was no stable money demand function. The disaggregate data shows that there was a stable money demand function. Neither was there any indication of the presence of liquidity trapo Possible sources of discrepancy are explored and the diametrically opposite results between the aggregate and disaggregate analysis are attributed to the neglected heterogeneity among micro units. We also conduct simulation analysis to show that when heterogeneity among micro units is present. The prediction of aggregate outcomes, using aggregate data is less accurate than the prediction based on micro equations. Moreover. policy evaluation based on aggregate data can be grossly misleading.

Demand expectations and the timing of stimulus policies

This paper proposes a simple macroeconomic model with staggered investment decisions. The model captures the dynamic coordination problem arising from demand externalities and fixed costs of investment. In times of low economic activity, a firm faces low demand and hence has less incentives for investing, which reinforces firms’ expectations of low demand. In the unique equilibrium of the model, demand expectations are pinned down by fundamentals and history. Owing to the beliefs that arise in equilibrium, there is no special reason for stimulus at times of low economic activity.

Bias from ignoring price dispersion in demand estimation

Consumers often pay different prices for the same product bought in the same store at the same time. However, the demand estimation literature has ignored that fact using, instead, aggregate measures such as the “list” or average price. In this paper we show that this will lead to biased price coefficients. Furthermore, we perform simple comparative statics simulation exercises for the logit and random coefficient models. In the “list” price case we find that the bias is larger when discounts are higher, proportion of consumers facing discount prices is higher and when consumers are more unwilling to buy the product so that they almost only do it when facing discount. In the average price case we find that the bias is larger when discounts are higher, proportion of consumers that have access to discount are similar to the ones that do not have access and when consumers willingness to buy is very dependent on idiosyncratic shocks. Also bias is less problematic in the average price case in markets with a lot of bargain deals, so that prices are as good as individual. We conclude by proposing ways that the econometrician can reduce this bias using different information that he may have available.

Microinsurance: income risk, social security and the demand for private onsurance by low-income families

Insurance provision against uncertainties is present in several dimensions of peoples´s lives, such as the provisions related to, inter alia, unemployment, diseases, accidents, robbery and death. Microinsurance improves the ability of low-income individuals to cope with these risks. Brazil has a fairly developed financial system but still not geared towards the poor, especially in what concerns the insurance industry. The evaluation of the microinsurance effects on well-being, and the demand for different types of microinsurance require an analysis of the dynamics of the individual income process and an assessment of substitutes and complementary institutions that condition their respective financial behavior. The evaluation of the microinsurance effects on well-being, and the demand for different types of microinsurance require an analysis of the dynamics of the individual income process and an assessment of substitutes and complementary institutions that condition their respective financial behavior. The Brazilian government provides a relatively developed social security system considering other countries of similar income level which crowds-out the demand for insurance and savings. On the other hand, this same public infrastructure may help to foster microfinance products supply. The objective of this paper is to analyze the demand for different types of private insurance by the low-income population using microdata from a National Expenditure Survey (POF/IBGE). The final objective is to help to understand the trade-offs faced for the development of an emerging industry of microinsurance in Brazil.

O incesto : discurso e ideologia

This research had as purpose to establish the logic symbolic present in the contemporary society that facilitated the emergency of a public speech on the incest, and, consequently, to demonstrate the ideological nature that structures it. Event associated to the order of the taboo, the incest would be the transgression of the injunction that, second Lévi-Strauss, facilitated the emergency of the Culture while symbolic order, differentiated of the natural order. The injunction of the incest would reveal the elementary and universal structures of the order symbolic presents in the human societies: the demand of the Rule as rule; the reciprocity and the gift, present element in the social changes that it transforms the individuals in partners, increasing a new quality in the transferred value, according to Lévi-Strauss. Starting from this, I developed the hypothesis second which the phenomenon of the alone incest became an event of discursive order and public as right social transformations affected the normative system (social representations, values, moral) regulator of the relationships among the social subjects, being reflected like this, in the own structuring of the Law. A second work hypothesis was developed starting from that. I develop it leaving of the argument that if when inserting the discussion of the thematic of the defense of the children and adolescent rights, being then, considering it while "privileged modality of sexual abuse against children", the present central subjects in the structuring of the social entail would be leaved. Being like this, the partner-institutional speech on the incest would answer the social demands of order and social control, becoming like this, discursive formations of ideological character. This research work tried to follow the hypothesis above referred, demonstrating the singular sense that it will be attributed to the incest in the contemporary society, particularly, its relationship with the Law and the transgression in the contemporary society

Prediction equations to estimate the demand of energy and crude protein for maintenance, gain and egg production for laying Japanese quails

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Determination of the chemical oxygen demand (COD) using a copper electrode: a clean alternative method

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Power flow for primary distribution networks considering uncertainty in demand and user connection

This paper presents a method for calculating the power flow in distribution networks considering uncertainties in the distribution system. Active and reactive power are used as uncertain variables and probabilistically modeled through probability distribution functions. Uncertainty about the connection of the users with the different feeders is also considered. A Monte Carlo simulation is used to generate the possible load scenarios of the users. The results of the power flow considering uncertainty are the mean values and standard deviations of the variables of interest (voltages in all nodes, active and reactive power flows, etc.), giving the user valuable information about how the network will behave under uncertainty rather than the traditional fixed values at one point in time. The method is tested using real data from a primary feeder system, and results are presented considering uncertainty in demand and also in the connection. To demonstrate the usefulness of the approach, the results are then used in a probabilistic risk analysis to identify potential problems of undervoltage in distribution systems. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The rating of perceived exertion predicts intermittent vertical jump demand and performance

The aims of this study were (a) to assess the ability of the rating of perceived exertion (RPE) to predict performance (i.e. number of vertical jumps performed to a fixed jump height) of an intermittent vertical jump exercise, and (b) to determine the ability of RPE to describe the physiological demand of such exercise. Eight healthy men performed intermittent vertical jumps with rest periods of 4, 5, and 6s until fatigue. Heart rate and RPE were recorded every five jumps throughout the sessions. The number of vertical jumps performed was also recorded. Random coefficient growth curve analysis identified relationships between the number of vertical jumps and both RPE and heart rate for which there were similar slopes. In addition, there were no differences between individual slopes and the mean slope for either RPE or heart rate. Moreover, RPE and number of jumps were highly correlated throughout all sessions (r=0.97-0.99; P0.001), as were RPE and heart rate (r=0.93-0.97; P0.001). The findings suggest that RPE can both predict the performance of intermittent vertical jump exercise and describe the physiological demands of such exercise.

Seeder-fertilizer machine: energetic demand as a function of vegetal covering handling and manure deposition shank depth in no-tillage system

O trabalho teve por objetivo avaliar a demanda energética de uma semeadora-adubadora, em função do tipo e manejo da cultura de cobertura vegetal e da profundidade da haste de deposição de adubo. Foi utilizado um trator Valtra BM100, instrumentado, para tracionar uma semeadora-adubadora de precisão equipada com quatro fileiras de semeadura espaçadas de 0,9 m para cultura de milho. O experimento foi conduzido em parcelas subsubdivididas, na área experimental do Laboratório de Máquinas e Mecanização Agrícola (LAMMA) da UNESP-Jaboticabal, utilizando duas culturas de cobertura (mucuna-preta e crotalária), três manejos dessas coberturas, sendo dois mecânicos (triturador de palhas e rolo-faca) e um químico (pulverização com herbicida), realizados 120 dias após a semeadura das culturas de cobertura e três profundidades da haste de deposição do adubo (0,11; 0,14 e 0,17 m), perfazendo 18 tratamentos, com quatro repetições, totalizando 72 observações. Foram avaliados os parâmetros velocidade de deslocamento, patinagem, força na barra de tração, força de pico, potência na barra de tração, potência de pico e consumo de combustível. Pôde-se concluir que a força na barra de tração foi menor para as profundidades de 0,11 e 0,14 m da haste sulcadora de adubo, o mesmo ocorrendo para força de pico, potência na barra de tração e consumo volumétrico. O consumo específico foi menor na profundidade de 0,17 m da haste sulcadora de adubo. As culturas de cobertura e seus manejos não interferiram no desempenho das máquinas estudadas.

Task demand effects on postural control in older adults

The literature shows conflicting results regarding older adults' (OA) postural control performance. Differing task demands amongst scientific studies may contribute to such ambiguous results. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to examine the performance of postural control in older adults and the relationship between visual information and body sway as a function of task demands. Old and young adults (YA) maintained an upright stance on different bases of support (normal, tandem and reduced), both with and without vision, and both with and without room movement. In the more demanding tasks, the older adults displayed greater body sway than the younger adults and older adults were more influenced by the manipulation of the visual information due to the room movement. However, in the normal support condition, the influence of the moving room was similar for the two groups. These results suggest that task demand is an important aspect to consider when examining postural control in older adults. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Transmission network expansion planning considering uncertainty in demand

This paper presents two mathematical models and one methodology to solve a transmission network expansion planning problem considering uncertainty in demand. The first model analyzed the uncertainty in the system as a whole; then, this model considers the uncertainty in the total demand of the power system. The second one analyzed the uncertainty in each load bus individually. The methodology used to solve the problem, finds the optimal transmission network expansion plan that allows the power system to operate adequately in an environment with uncertainty. The models presented are solved using a specialized genetic algorithm. The results obtained for several known systems from literature show that cheaper plans can be found satisfying the uncertainty in demand.

Demographic of short gut syndrome: Increasing demand is not followed by referral of potential candidates for small bowel transplantation

Background. Despite improvements in small bowel transplantation (SBTx), early referral of patients with irreversible intestinal failure (IF) remains a major obstacle. In this study we evaluated the demand for SBTx among seven surgical pediatric centers located at least 200 km from our center.Methods. From 1997 to 2001, 640 patients have been treated for neonatal diseases, including 248 who underwent a minor or major intestinal resection. Twenty-four patients with major resections presented with short gut syndrome, requiring total parenteral nutrition (TPN). The greatest demand was in postsurgical neonates with necrotizing enterocolitis, gastroschiesis, onphalocoeles, or midgut volvulus, and in three adults with postradiotherapy arteritis (n = 2) and mesenteric vein thromboses (n = 1). The median length of residual bowel after resection was 20 to 30 cm, without an ileocecal valve. Four patients were referred for SBTx evaluation; three died while awaiting a donor; 20 were not referred, among whom 14 died of TPN complications.Results. Approximately 62 children per year require nutritional support for IF, most of whom develop complications related to TPN. Because many patients who are TPN-dependent develop complications, we believe that early referral would reduce mortality.Conclusions. Greater medical awareness about the feasibility of SBTx procedures and earlier referral may improve results and quality of life after transplant.

An hydrochemical answer to a legislative demand involving health risk related to water quality

Effluents and surface waters around an area involved with the inking of tissues at Itatiba municipality, São Paulo State, Brazil, were chemically analyzed with the purpose of evaluating the influence on the water quality of the chemicals released, as well to provide answers to legislative requirements related to the São Paulo State Register 997 published on 31 May 1976.

Usage of enterprise modeling processes and information systems design to forecast demand

Managing the great complexity of enterprise system, due to entities numbers, decision and process varieties involved to be controlled results in a very hard task because deals with the integration of its operations and its information systems. Moreover, the enterprises find themselves in a constant changing process, reacting in a dynamic and competitive environment where their business processes are constantly altered. The transformation of business processes into models allows to analyze and redefine them. Through computing tools usage it is possible to minimize the cost and risks of an enterprise integration design. This article claims for the necessity of modeling the processes in order to define more precisely the enterprise business requirements and the adequate usage of the modeling methodologies. Following these patterns, the paper concerns the process modeling relative to the domain of demand forecasting as a practical example. The domain of demand forecasting was built based on a theoretical review. The resulting models considered as reference model are transformed into information systems and have the aim to introduce a generic solution and be start point of better practical forecasting. The proposal is to promote the adequacy of the information system to the real needs of an enterprise in order to enable it to obtain and accompany better results, minimizing design errors, time, money and effort. The enterprise processes modeling are obtained with the usage of CIMOSA language and to the support information system it was used the UML language.