Public debt sustainability and endogenous seigniorage in Brazil: time-series evidence from 1947-92: revised version

Using national accounts data for the revenue-GDP and expenditureGDP ratios from 1947 to 1992, we examine three central issues in public finance. First, was the path of public debt sustainable during this period? Second, if debt is sustainable, how has the government historically balanced the budget after shocks to either revenues or expenditures? Third, are expenditures exogenous? The results show that (i) public deficit is stationary (bounded asymptotic variance), with the budget in Brazil being balanced almost entirely through changes in taxes, regardless of the cause of the initial imbalance. Expenditures are weakly exogenous, but tax revenues are not; (ii) the behavior of a rational Brazilian consumer may be consistent with Ricardian Equivalence; (iii) seigniorage revenues are critical to restore intertemporal budget equilibrium, since, when we exclude them from total revenues, debt is not sustainable in econometric tests.

The impact of OFDI on economic growth countries. An econometric approach using panel data and time-series evidence

The thesis at hand adds to the existing literature by investigating the relationship between economic growth and outward foreign direct investments (OFDI) on a set of 16 emerging countries. Two different econometric techniques are employed: a panel data regression analysis and a time-series causality analysis. Results from the regression analysis indicate a positive and significant correlation between OFDI and economic growth. Additionally, the coefficient for the OFDI variable is robust in the sense specified by the Extreme Bound Analysis (EBA). On the other hand, the findings of the causality analysis are particularly heterogeneous. The vector autoregression (VAR) and the vector error correction model (VECM) approaches identify unidirectional Granger causality running either from OFDI to GDP or from GDP to OFDI in six countries. In four economies causality among the two variables is bidirectional, whereas in five countries no causality relationship between OFDI and GDP seems to be present.

Forecasting multivariate time series under present-value-model short- and long-run co-movement restrictions

It is well known that cointegration between the level of two variables (e.g. prices and dividends) is a necessary condition to assess the empirical validity of a present-value model (PVM) linking them. The work on cointegration,namelyon long-run co-movements, has been so prevalent that it is often over-looked that another necessary condition for the PVM to hold is that the forecast error entailed by the model is orthogonal to the past. This amounts to investigate whether short-run co-movememts steming from common cyclical feature restrictions are also present in such a system. In this paper we test for the presence of such co-movement on long- and short-term interest rates and on price and dividend for the U.S. economy. We focuss on the potential improvement in forecasting accuracies when imposing those two types of restrictions coming from economic theory.

Forecasting multivariate time series under present-value-model short- and long-run co-movement restrictions

Using a sequence of nested multivariate models that are VAR-based, we discuss different layers of restrictions imposed by present-value models (PVM hereafter) on the VAR in levels for series that are subject to present-value restrictions. Our focus is novel - we are interested in the short-run restrictions entailed by PVMs (Vahid and Engle, 1993, 1997) and their implications for forecasting. Using a well-known database, kept by Robert Shiller, we implement a forecasting competition that imposes different layers of PVM restrictions. Our exhaustive investigation of several different multivariate models reveals that better forecasts can be achieved when restrictions are applied to the unrestricted VAR. Moreover, imposing short-run restrictions produces forecast winners 70% of the time for the target variables of PVMs and 63.33% of the time when all variables in the system are considered.

Sistema supervis��rio para o m��todo de eleva����o plunger lift

SOARES, Lennedy C. ; MEDEIROS, Adelardo A. D. de ; PROTASIO, Alan D. D. ; BOLONHINI, Edson H. Sistema supervis��rio para o m��todo de eleva����o plunger lift. In: CONGRESSO BRASILEIRO DE PESQUISA E DESENVOLVIMENTO EM PETR��LEO E G��S, 5., Fortaleza, CE, 2009. Anais...Fortaleza: CBPDPetro, 2009.

Desenvolvimento de sistemas embarcados para redes de sensores e atuadores sem fio aplicadas em unidades de eleva����o de petr��leo do tipo Plunger-Lift

The Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN) methods applied to the lifting of oil present as an area with growing demand technical and scientific in view of the optimizations that can be carried forward with existing processes. This dissertation has as main objective to present the development of embedded systems dedicated to a wireless sensor network based on IEEE 802.15.4, which applies the ZigBee protocol, between sensors, actuators and the PLC (Programmable Logic Controller), aiming to solve the present problems in the deployment and maintenance of the physical communication of current elevation oil units based on the method Plunger-Lift. Embedded systems developed for this application will be responsible for acquiring information from sensors and control actuators of the devices present at the well, and also, using the Modbus protocol to make this network becomes transparent to the PLC responsible for controlling the production and delivery information for supervisory SISAL

Sistema supervis��rio para po��os de petr��leo baseados no m��todo de eleva����o artificial Plunger Lift

The several existing methods for oil artificial lifting and the variety of automation equipment for these methods many times lead the supervisory systems to be dedicated to a unique method and/or to a unique manufacturer. To avoid this problem, it has been developed the supervisory system named SISAL, conceived to supervise wells with different lifting methods and different automation equipments. The SISAL system is working in several Brazilian states but, nowadays, it is only supervising rod pump-based wells. The objective of this work is the development of a supervision module to the plunger lift artificial lift method. The module will have the same characteristics of working with automation hardware of many manufacturers. The module will be integrated to the SISAL system, incorporating the capacity to supervise the plunger lift artificial lift method.

Stochastic simulation of time-series models combined with geostatistics to predict water-table scenarios in a Guarani Aquifer System outcrop area, Brazil

Funda����o de Amparo �� Pesquisa do Estado de S��o Paulo (FAPESP)

Desenvolvimento de um software de comunica����o sem fio aplicado �� instrumenta����o de unidade de eleva����o de petr��leo tipo Plunger Lift

This dissertation aims to develop a software applied to a communication system for a wireless sensor network (WSN) for tracking analog and digital variables and control valve of the gas flow in artificial oil s elevation units, Plunger Lift type. The reason for this implementation is due to the fact that, in the studied plant configuration, the sensors communicate with the PLC (Programmable and Logic Controller) by the cables and pipelines, making any changes in that system, such as changing the layout of it, as well as inconveniences that arise from the nature of the site, such as the vicinity s animals presence that tend to destroy the cables for interconnection of sensors to the PLC. For software development, was used communication polling method via SMAC protocol (Simple Medium Access ControlIEEE 802.15.4 standard) in the CodeWarrior environment to which generated a firmware, loaded into the WSN s transceivers, present in the kit MC13193-EVK, (all items described above are owners of Freescale Semiconductors Inc.). The network monitoring and parameterization used in its application, was developed in LabVIEW software from National Instruments. The results were obtained through the observation of the network s behavior of sensors proposal, focusing on aspects such as: indoor and outdoor quantity of packages received and lost, general aspects of reliability in data transmission, coexistence with other types of wireless networks and power consumption under different operating conditions. The results were considered satisfactory, which showed the software efficiency in this communication system

Otimiza����o de Algoritmos Criptogr��ficos para Redes de Sensores e Atuadores Sem-fio para Po��os do Tipo Plunger Lift

Wireless sensors and actuators Networks specified by IEEE 802.15.4, are becoming increasingly being applied to instrumentation, as in instrumentation of oil wells with completion Plunger Lift type. Due to specific characteristics of the environment being installed, it s find the risk of compromising network security, and presenting several attack scenarios and the potential damage from them. It`s found the need for a more detailed security study of these networks, which calls for use of encryption algorithms, like AES-128 bits and RC6. So then it was implement the algorithms RC6 and AES-128, in an 8 bits microcontroller, and study its performance characteristics, critical for embedded applications. From these results it was developed a Hybrid Algorithm Cryptographic, ACH, which showed intermediate characteristics between the AES and RC6, more appropriate for use in applications with limitations of power consumption and memory. Also was present a comparative study of quality of security among the three algorithms, proving ACH cryptographic capability.

Modelagem din��mica do escoamento de um sistema de eleva����o por plunger lift

A critical problem in mature gas wells is the liquid loading. As the reservoir pressure decreases, gas superficial velocities decreases and the drag exerted on the liquid phase may become insufficient to bring all the liquid to the surface. Liquid starts to drain downward, flooding the well and increasing the backpressure which decreases the gas superficial velocity and so on. A popular method to remedy this problem is the Plunger Lift. This method consists of dropping the "plunger"to the bottom of the tubing well with the main production valve closed. When the plunger reaches the well bottom the production valve is opened and the plunger carry the liquid to the surface. However, models presented in literature for predicting the behavior in plunger lift are simplistic, in many cases static (not considering the transient effects). Therefore work presents the development and validation of a numerical algorithm to solve one-dimensional compressible in gas wells using the Finite Volume Method and PRIME techniques for treating coupling of pressure and velocity fields. The code will be then used to develop a dynamic model for the plunger lift which includes the transient compressible flow within the well

Pole placement method using the system matrix transfer function and sparsity

This paper presents a pole placement method using both the augmented Jacobian and the corresponding system transfer function matrices. From the manipulation of these matrices a straightforward approach results to get the coefficients of a non-linear system, whose solution gives the parameters of the stabilizers that can provide a pre-specified minimum damping to the system. (C) 2001 Elsevier B.V. Ltd. All rights reserved.