Analysis of gain-switching in two-section tapered lasers

We analyze the gain-switching dynamics of two-section tapered lasers by means of a simplified three-rate-equation model. The goal is to improve the understanding of the underlying physics and to optimize the device geometry to achieve high power short duration optical pulses.

Classical segmentation methods on novel MR imaging: a study of brain tissue segmentation of MP2RAGE vs MPRAGE

MP2RAGE has proven to be a bias-free MR acquisition with excellent contrast between grey and white matter. We investigated the ability of three state-of-the-art algorithms to automatically extract white matter (WM), grey matter (GM) and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) from MPRAGE and MP2RAGE images: unified Segmentation (S) in SPM82 , its extension New Segment (NS), and an in-house Expectation-Maximization Markov Random Field tissue classification3 (EM-MRF) with Graph Cut (GC) optimization4 . Our goal is to quantify the differences between MPRAGE and MP2RAGE-based brain tissue probability maps.

Joint statistical analysis of multiple measurement setups for the estimation of vibrational modes

Computing the modal parameters of large structures in Operational Modal Analysis often requires to process data from multiple non simultaneously recorded setups of sensors. These setups share some sensors in common, the so-called reference sensors that are fixed for all the measurements, while the other sensors are moved from one setup to the next. One possibility is to process the setups separately what result in different modal parameter estimates for each setup. Then the reference sensors are used to merge or glue the different parts of the mode shapes to obtain global modes, while the natural frequencies and damping ratios are usually averaged. In this paper we present a state space model that can be used to process all setups at once so the global mode shapes are obtained automatically and subsequently only a value for the natural frequency and damping ratio of each mode is computed. We also present how this model can be estimated using maximum likelihood and the Expectation Maximization algorithm. We apply this technique to real data measured at a footbridge.

Modelos para el análisis dinámico y la predicción a corto plazo de los precios de la electricidad en mercados liberalizados

En esta tesis se va a describir y aplicar de forma novedosa la técnica del alisado exponencial multivariante a la predicción a corto plazo, a un día vista, de los precios horarios de la electricidad, un problema que se está estudiando intensivamente en la literatura estadística y económica reciente. Se van a demostrar ciertas propiedades interesantes del alisado exponencial multivariante que permiten reducir el número de parámetros para caracterizar la serie temporal y que al mismo tiempo permiten realizar un análisis dinámico factorial de la serie de precios horarios de la electricidad. En particular, este proceso multivariante de elevada dimensión se estimará descomponiéndolo en un número reducido de procesos univariantes independientes de alisado exponencial caracterizado cada uno por un solo parámetro de suavizado que variará entre cero (proceso de ruido blanco) y uno (paseo aleatorio). Para ello, se utilizará la formulación en el espacio de los estados para la estimación del modelo, ya que ello permite conectar esa secuencia de modelos univariantes más eficientes con el modelo multivariante. De manera novedosa, las relaciones entre los dos modelos se obtienen a partir de un simple tratamiento algebraico sin requerir la aplicación del filtro de Kalman. De este modo, se podrán analizar y poner al descubierto las razones últimas de la dinámica de precios de la electricidad. Por otra parte, la vertiente práctica de esta metodología se pondrá de manifiesto con su aplicación práctica a ciertos mercados eléctricos spot, tales como Omel, Powernext y Nord Pool. En los citados mercados se caracterizará la evolución de los precios horarios y se establecerán sus predicciones comparándolas con las de otras técnicas de predicción. ABSTRACT This thesis describes and applies the multivariate exponential smoothing technique to the day-ahead forecast of the hourly prices of electricity in a whole new way. This problem is being studied intensively in recent statistics and economics literature. It will start by demonstrating some interesting properties of the multivariate exponential smoothing that reduce drastically the number of parameters to characterize the time series and that at the same time allow a dynamic factor analysis of the hourly prices of electricity series. In particular this very complex multivariate process of dimension 24 will be estimated by decomposing a very reduced number of univariate independent of exponentially smoothing processes each characterized by a single smoothing parameter that varies between zero (white noise process) and one (random walk). To this end, the formulation is used in the state space model for the estimation, since this connects the sequence of efficient univariate models to the multivariate model. Through a novel way, relations between the two models are obtained from a simple algebraic treatment without applying the Kalman filter. Thus, we will analyze and expose the ultimate reasons for the dynamics of the electricity price. Moreover, the practical aspect of this methodology will be shown by applying this new technique to certain electricity spot markets such as Omel, Powernext and Nord Pool. In those markets the behavior of prices will be characterized, their predictions will be formulated and the results will be compared with those of other forecasting techniques.

Aplicación de la metodología GloBeM al servicio de cloud Hydra

El presente Proyecto de Fin de Máster consiste en crear una herramienta software capaz de monitorizar y gestionar la actividad de Hydra, una herramienta de gestión de entornos distribuidos, para que su estrategia de balanceo de carga se adecúe al modelo creado por GloBeM, una metodología de análisis de entornos distribuidos. GloBeM, que es una metodología externa, puede analizar y crear un modelo de máquina de estados finitos a partir de un sistema distribuido concreto. Hydra, una herramienta también externa, es un sistema de gestión de entornos cloud recientemente desarrollado y de código abierto, con un sistema de balanceo de carga efectivo pero algo limitado. El software construido recoge el modelo creado por GloBeM y lo analiza. A partir de ahí, monitoriza en tiempo real y a una frecuencia determinada la actividad de Hydra y el sistema cloud que ésta gestiona, y reconfigura sus parámetros para que su desempeño se ciña a lo estipulado por el modelo de GloBeM, extendiendo así el sistema de balanceo de carga original de Hydra.---ABSTRACT---This Master's Thesis Project involves creating a software able to monitor and manage the activity of Hydra, a tool for managing distributed environments, in order to adjust its load balancing strategy to the model created by GloBeM, an analysis methodology for distributed environments. GloBeM, which is an external methodology, can analyse and create a finite-state machine model from a particular cloud system. Hydra, also an external tool, is an open source management system for cloud environments recently developed, with a relatively limited system of load balancing. The created software gets the model created by GloBeM as an input and analyses it. From there, it monitors in real time and at a certain frequency Hydra’s activity and the cloud system that it manages, and reconfigures its parameters to adjust its performance to the stipulations by the GloBeM’s model, extending Hydra's original load balancing system.

Aplicación de la celulosa bacteriana a la restauración del patrimonio bibliográfico y documental en papel

La preservación del patrimonio bibliográfico y documental en papel es uno de los mayores retos a los que se enfrentan bibliotecas y archivos de todo el mundo. La búsqueda de soluciones al problema del papel degradado ha sido abordada históricamente desde dos líneas de trabajo predominantes: la conservación de estos documentos mediante la neutralización de los ácidos presentes en ellos con agentes alcalinos, y su restauración mediante el método de laminación fundamentalmente con papel de origen vegetal. Sin embargo, no se ha explorado con éxito la posibilidad de reforzar la celulosa dañada, y el problema sigue sin encontrar una solución satisfactoria. Hasta el día de hoy, el desarrollo de tratamientos basados en biotecnología en la conservación del patrimonio documental ha sido muy escaso, aunque la capacidad de ciertas bacterias de producir celulosa lleva a plantear su uso en el campo de la conservación y restauración del papel. La celulosa bacteriana (CB) es químicamente idéntica a la celulosa vegetal, pero su organización macroscópica es diferente. Sus propiedades únicas (alto grado de cristalinidad, durabilidad, resistencia y biocompatibilidad) han hecho de este material un excelente recurso en diferentes campos. En el desarrollo de esta tesis se ha estudiado el uso de la celulosa bacteriana, de alta calidad, generada por Gluconacetobacter sucrofermentans CECT 7291, para restaurar documentos deteriorados y consolidar los que puedan estar en peligro de degradación, evitando así su destrucción y proporcionando al papel que se restaura unas buenas propiedades mecánicas, ópticas y estructurales. Se desarrollan asimismo protocolos de trabajo que permitan la aplicación de dicha celulosa. En primer lugar se seleccionó el medio de cultivo que proporcionó una celulosa adecuada para su uso en restauración. Para ello se evaluó el efecto que tienen sobre la celulosa generada las fuentes de carbono y nitrógeno del medio de cultivo, manteniendo como parámetros fijos la temperatura y el pH inicial del medio, y efectuando los ensayos en condiciones estáticas. Se evaluó, también, el efecto que tiene en la CB la adición de un 1% de etanol al medio de cultivo. Las capas de celulosa se recolectaron a cuatro tiempos distintos, caracterizando en cada uno de ellos el medio de cultivo (pH y consumo de fuente de carbono), y las capas de CB (pH, peso seco y propiedades ópticas y mecánicas). La mejor combinación de fuentes de carbono y nitrógeno resultó ser fructosa más extracto de levadura y extracto de maíz, con o sin etanol, que proporcionaban una buena relación entre la producción de celulosa y el consumo de fuente de carbono, y que generaban una capa de celulosa resistente y homogénea. La adición de etanol al medio de cultivo, si bien aumentaba la productividad, causaba un descenso apreciable de pH. Las capas de CB obtenidas con los medios de cultivo optimizados se caracterizaron en términos de sus índices de desgarro y estallido, propiedades ópticas, microscopía electrónica de barrido (SEM), difracción de rayos-X, espectroscopía infrarroja con transformada de Fourier (FTIR), grado de polimerización, ángulos de contacto estáticos y dinámicos, y porosimetría de intrusión de mercurio. Por otro lado hay que tener en cuenta que el material restaurado debe ser estable con el tiempo. Por ello esta misma caracterización se efectuó tras someter a las capas de CB a un proceso de envejecimiento acelerado. Los resultados mostraron que la CB resultante tiene un elevado índice de cristalinidad, baja porosidad interna, buenas propiedades mecánicas, y alta estabilidad en el tiempo. Para desarrollar los protocolos de trabajo que permitan la restauración con esta celulosa optimizada, se comienzó con un proceso de selección de los papeles que van a ser restaurados. Se eligieron tres tipos de papeles modelo, hechos con pasta mecánica, química y filtro (antes y después de ser sometidos a un proceso de envejecimiento acelerado), y tres libros viejos adquiridos en el mercado de segunda mano. Estos ejemplares a restaurar se caracterizaron también en términos de sus propiedades mecánicas y fisicoquímicas. El primer protocolo de restauración con CB que se evaluó fue el denominado laminación. Consiste en aplicar un material de refuerzo al documento mediante el uso de un adhesivo. Se seleccionó para ello la CB producida en el medio de cultivo optimizado con un 1% de etanol. Se aplicó un método de purificación alcalino (1 hora a 90 °C en NaOH al 1%) y como adhesivo se seleccionó almidón de trigo. El proceso de laminación se efectuó también con papel japonés (PJ), un material habitualmente utilizado en conservación, para comparar ambos materiales. Se concluyó que no hay diferencias significativas en las características estudiadas entre los dos tipos de materiales de refuerzo. Se caracterizó el material reforzado y, también, después de sufrir un proceso de envejecimiento acelerado. Los papeles laminados con CB mostraban diferencias más marcadas en las propiedades ópticas que los restaurados con PJ, con respecto a los originales. Sin embargo, el texto era más legible cuando el material de restauración era la CB. La mojabilidad disminuía con ambos tipos de refuerzo, aunque en los papeles laminados con CB de manera más marcada e independiente del material a restaurar. Esto se debe a la estructura cerrada de la CB, que también conduce a una disminución en la permeabilidad al aire. Este estudio sugiere que la CB mejora la calidad del papel deteriorado, sin alterar la información que contiene, y que esta mejora se mantiene a lo largo del tiempo. Por tanto, la CB puede ser utilizada como material de refuerzo para laminar, pudiendo ser más adecuada que el PJ para ciertos tipos de papeles. El otro método de restauración que se estudió fue la generación in situ de la CB sobre el papel a restaurar. Para ello se seleccionó el medio de cultivo sin etanol, ya que el descenso de pH que causaba su presencia podría dañar el documento a restaurar. El método de purificación elegido fue un tratamiento térmico (24 horas a 65 °C), menos agresivo para el material a restaurar que el tratamiento alcalino. Se seleccionó la aplicación del medio de cultivo con la bacteria mediante pincel sobre el material a restaurar. Una vez caracterizado el material restaurado, y éste mismo tras sufrir un proceso de envejecimiento acelerado, se concluyó que no hay modificación apreciable en ninguna característica, salvo en la permeabilidad al aire, que disminuye de manera muy evidente con la generación de CB, dando lugar a un material prácticamente impermeable al aire. En general se puede concluir que ha quedado demostrada la capacidad que tiene la celulosa generada por la bacteria Gluconacetobacter sucrofermentans CECT 7291 para ser utilizada como material de refuerzo en la restauración del patrimonio documental en papel. Asimismo se han desarrollado dos métodos de aplicación, uno ex situ y otro in situ, para efectuar esta tarea de restauración. ABSTRACT The preservation of bibliographic and documentary heritage is one of the biggest challenges that libraries and archives around the world have to face. The search for solutions to the problem of degraded paper has historically been focused from two predominants lines of work: the conservation of these documents by the neutralization of acids in them with alkaline agents, and their restoration by lining them with, basically, cellulose from vegetal sources. However, the possibility of strengthening the damaged cellulose has not been successfully explored, and the problem still persists. Until today, the development of biotechnology-based treatments in documentary heritage conservation has been scarce, although the ability of certain bacteria to produce cellulose takes to propose its use in the field of conservation and restoration of paper. The bacterial cellulose (BC) is chemically identical to the plant cellulose, but its macroscopic organization is different. Its unique properties (high degree of crystallinity, durability, strength and biocompatibility), makes it an excellent resource in different fields. The use of high-quality BC generated by Gluconacetobacter sucrofermentans CECT 7291 to restore damaged documents and to consolidate those that may be at risk of degradation, has been studied in this thesis, trying to prevent the document destruction, and to get reinforced papers with good mechanical, optical and structural properties. Protocols that allow the implementation of the BC as a reinforcing material were also developed. First of all, in order to select the culture medium that provides a cellulose suitable for its use in restoration, it has been evaluated the effect that the carbon and nitrogen sources from the culture medium have on the generated BC, keeping the temperature and the initial pH of the medium as fixed parameters, and performing the culture without shaking. The effect of the addition of 1% ethanol to the culture medium on BC properties was also evaluated. The cellulose layers were collected at four different times, characterizing in all of them the culture medium (pH and carbon source consumption), and the BC sheets (pH, dry weight and optical and mechanical properties). The best combination of carbon and nitrogen sources proved to be fructose plus yeast extract and corn steep liquor, with or without ethanol, which provided a good balance between the cellulose production and the consumption of carbon source, and generating BC sheets homogeneous and resistant. The addition of ethanol to the culture medium increased productivity but caused a noticeable decrement in pH. The BC layers generated with these optimized culture media, have been characterized in terms of tear and burst index, optical properties, scanning electron microscopy (SEM), X-ray diffraction, infrared Fourier transform spectroscopy (FTIR), polymerization degree, static and dynamic contact angles, and mercury intrusion porosimetry. Moreover it must be kept in mind that the restored materials should be stable over time. Therefore, the same characterization was performed after subjecting the layers of BC to an accelerated aging process. The results showed that the BC sheets obtained have a high crystallinity index, low internal porosity, good mechanical properties, and high stability over time. To develop working protocols to use this optimized BC in paper restoration, the first step was to select the samples to restore. Three types of model papers, made from mechanical pulp, chemical pulp and filter paper (before and after an accelerated aging process), and three old books purchased in the second hand market, were chosen. These specimens to be restored were also characterized in terms of its mechanical and physicochemical properties. The first protocol of restoration with BC to be evaluated is called linning. It consists on applying a reinforcing material to the document using an adhesive. The BC produced in the optimized culture medium with 1% ethanol was selected. An alkali purification method (1 hour at 90 °C in 1% NaOH) was applied, and wheat starch was selected as adhesive. The linning process was also carried out with Japanese paper (JP), a material commonly used in conservation, in order to compare both materials. It was concluded that there are no significant differences in the characteristics studied of the two types of reinforcing materials. The reinforced materials were characterized before and after undergoing to an accelerated aging. Papers lined with BC showed more marked differences in the optical properties that papers restored with JP. However, the text was more readable when BC was the reinforcing material. Wettability decreased with both types of reinforcement, although in the papers linned with BC it happened more marked and independently of the sample to restore. This is due to the closed structure of BC, which also leads to a decrement in air permeance. This study suggests that BC improves the deteriorated paper quality, without altering the information on it, and that this improvement is maintained over time. Therefore, the BC may be used as reinforcing material for linning, being more suitable than the JP to restore certain types of papers. The other restoration method to be evaluated was the in situ generation of BC over the paper to restore. For this purpose the culture medium without ethanol was selected, as the pH decrement caused by his presence would damage the document to restore. As purification method a heat treatment (24 hours at 65 °C) was chosen, less aggressive to the material to restore than the alkaline treatment. It was decided to apply the culture medium with the bacteria onto the material to restore with a brush. The reinforced material was characterized before and after an accelerated aging process. It was concluded that there was no substantial change in any characteristic, except for air permeance, which decreases very sharply after the generation of BC, getting a substantially air impermeable material. In general, it can be concluded that the ability of BC produced by Gluconacetobacter sucrofermentans CECT 7291 for its use as a reinforcing material in the restoration of paper documentary heritage, has been demonstrated. Also, two restoration methods, one ex situ and another in situ have been developed.

Deforestación y Pérdida de hábitat en Bosques de montaña en la Cuenca alta del Río Zamora (Loja, Ecuador)

Los bosques húmedos de montaña se encuentran reconocidos como uno de los ecosistemas más amenazados en el mundo, llegando inclusive a ser considerado como un “hotspot” por su alta diversidad y endemismo. La acelerada pérdida de cobertura vegetal de estos bosques ha ocasionado que, en la actualidad, se encuentren restringidos a una pequeña fracción de su área de distribución histórica. Pese a esto, los estudios realizados sobre cual es efecto de la deforestación, fragmentación, cambios de uso de suelo y su efecto en las comunidades de plantas presentes en este tipo de vegetación aún son muy escuetos, en comparación a los realizados con sus similares amazónicos. En este trabajo, el cual se encuentra dividido en seis capítulos, abordaremos los siguientes objetivos: a) Comprender cuál es la dinámica que han seguido los diferentes tipos de bosques montanos andinos de la cuenca del Rio Zamora, Sur de Ecuador durante entre 1976 y 2002. b) Proveer de evidencia de las tasas de deforestación y fragmentación de todos los tipos diferentes de bosques montanos andinos presentes en la cuenca del Rio Zamora, Sur de Ecuador entre 1976 y 2002. c) Determinar qué factores inducen a la fragmentación de bosques de montaña en la cuenca alta del río Zamora entre 1976 y 2002. d) Determinar cuáles son y cómo afectan los factores ambientales y socioeconómicos a la dinámica de la deforestación y regeneración (pérdida y recuperación del hábitat) sufrida por los bosques de montaña dentro de la zona de estudio y e) Determinar si la deforestación y fragmentación actúan sobre la diversidad y estructura de las comunidades de tres tipos de organismos (comunidades de árboles, comunidades de líquenes epífitos y comunidades de hepáticas epífitas). Este estudio se centró en el cuenca alta del río Zamora, localizada al sur de Ecuador entre las coordenadas 3º 00´ 53” a 4º 20´ 24.65” de latitud sur y 79º 49´58” a 78º 35´ 38” de longitud oeste, que cubre alrededor de 4300 km2 de territorio situado entre las capitales de las provincias de Loja y Zamora-Chinchipe. Con objeto de predecir la dinámica futura de la deforestación en la región de Loja y cómo se verán afectados los diferentes tipos de hábitat, así como para detectar los factores que más influyen en dicha dinámica, se han construido modelos basados en la historia de la deforestación derivados de fotografías aéreas e imágenes satelitales de tres fechas (1976, 1989 y 2002). La cuantificación de la deforestación se realizó mediante la tasa de interés compuesto y para la caracterización de la configuración espacial de los fragmentos de bosque nativo se calcularon índices de paisaje los cuales fueron calculados utilizando el programa Fragstats 3.3. Se ha clasificado el recubrimiento del terreno en forestal y no forestal y se ha modelado su evolución temporal con Modelos Lineales Generalizados Mixtos (GLMM), empleando como variables explicativas tanto variables ambientales espacialmente explícitas (altitud, orientación, pendiente, etc) como antrópicas (distancia a zonas urbanizadas, deforestadas, caminos, entre otras). Para medir el efecto de la deforestación sobre las comunidades modelo (de árboles, líquenes y hepáticas) se monitorearon 11 fragmentos de vegetación de distinto tamaño: dos fragmentos de más de cien hectáreas, tres fragmentos de entre diez y noventa ha y seis fragmentos de menos de diez hectáreas. En ellos se instalaron un total de 38 transectos y 113 cuadrantes de 20 x 20 m a distancias que se alejaban progresivamente del borde en 10, 40 y 80 m. Nuestros resultados muestran una tasa media anual de deforestación del 1,16% para todo el período de estudio, que el tipo de vegetación que más alta tasa de destrucción ha sufrido, es el páramo herbáceo, con un 2,45% anual. El análisis de los patrones de fragmentación determinó un aumento en 2002 de más del doble de fragmentos presentes en 1976, lo cual se repite en el análisis del índice de densidad promedio. El índice de proximidad media entre fragmentos muestra una reducción progresiva de la continuidad de las áreas forestadas. Si bien las formas de los fragmentos se han mantenido bastante similares a lo largo del período de estudio, la conectividad entre estos ha disminuido en un 84%. Por otro lado, de nuestros análisis se desprende que las zonas con mayor probabilidad de deforestarse son aquellas que están cercanas a zonas previamente deforestadas; la cercanía a las vías también influye significativamente en la deforestación, causando un efecto directo en la composición y estructura de las comunidades estudiadas, que en el caso de los árboles viene mediado por el tamaño del fragmento y en el caso del componente epífito (hepáticas y líquenes), viene mediado tanto por el tamaño del fragmento como por la distancia al borde del mismo. Se concluye la posibilidad de que, de mantenerse esta tendencia, este tipo de bosques desaparecerá en corto tiempo y los servicios ecosistémicos que prestan, se verán seriamente comprometidos. ABSTRACT Mountain rainforests are recognized as one of the most threatened ecosystems in the world, and have even come to be considered as a “hotspot” due to their high degree of diversity and endemism. The accelerated loss of plant cover of these forests has caused them to be restricted today to a small fraction of their area of historic distribution. In spite of this, studies done on the effect of deforestation, fragmentation, changes in soil use and their effect on the plant communities present in this type of vegetation are very brief compared to those done on their analogues in the Amazon region. In this study, which is divided into six chapters, we will address the following objectives: a) To understand what the dynamic followed by the different types of Andean mountain forests in the Zamora River watershed of southern Ecuador has been between 1976 and 2002. b) To provide evidence of the rates of deforestation and fragmentation of all the different types of Andean mountain forests existing in the upper watershed of the Zamora River between 1976 and 2002. c) To determine the factors that induces fragmentation of all different types of Andean mountain forests existing in the upper watershed of the Zamora River between 1976 and 2002. d) To determine what the environmental and anthropogenic factors are driving the dynamic of deforestation and regeneration (loss and recuperation of the habitat) suffered by the mountain forests in the area of the study and e) To determine if the deforestation and fragmentation act upon the diversity and structure of three model communities: trees, epiphytic lichens and epiphytic liverworts. This study is centered on the upper Zamora River watershed, located in southern Ecuador between 3º 00´ 53” and 4º 20´ 24.65 south latitude and 79º 49´ 58” to 78º 35´ 38” west longitude, and covers around 4,300 km2 of territory located between Loja and Zamora-Chinchipe provinces. For the purpose of predicting the future dynamic of deforestation in the Loja region and how different types of habitats will be affected, as well as detecting the environmental and socioeconomic factors that influence landscape dynamics, models were constructed based on deforestation history, derived from aerial photographs and satellite images for three dates (1976, 1989 and 2002). Quantifying the deforestation was done using the compound interest rate; to characterize the spatial configuration of fragments of native forest, landscape indices were calculated with Fragstats 3.3 program. Land cover was classified as forested and not forested and its evolution over time was modeled with Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMM), using spatially explicit environmental variables (altitude, orientation, slope, etc.) as well as anthropic variables (distance to urbanized, deforested areas and roads, among others) as explanatory variables. To measure the effects of fragmentation on three types of model communities (forest trees and epiphytic lichen and liverworts), 11 vegetation fragments of different sizes were monitored: two fragments of more than one hundred hectares, three fragments of between ten and ninety ha and six fragments of fewer than ten hectares . In these fragments, a total of 38 transects and 113 20 x 20 m quadrats were installed at distances that progressively moved away from the edge of the fragment by 10, 40 and 80 m. Our results show an average annual rate of deforestation of 1.16% for the entire period of the study, and that the type of vegetation that suffered the highest rate of destruction was grassy paramo, with an annual rate of 2.45%. The analysis of fragmentation patterns determined the number of fragments in 2002 more than doubled the number of fragments present in 1976, and the same occurred for the average density index. The variation of the average proximity index among fragments showed a progressive reduction of the continuity of forested areas. Although fragment shapes have remained quite similar over the period of the study, connectivity among them has diminished by 84%. On the other hand, it emerged from our analysis that the areas of greatest probability of deforestation were those that are close to previously deforested areas; proximity to roads also significantly favored the deforestation causing a direct effect on the composition of our model communities, that in the case of forest trees is determined by the size of the fragment, and in the case of the epiphyte communities (liverworts and lichens), is determined, by the size of the fragment as well as the distance to edge. A subject under discussion is the possibility that if this tendency continues, this type of forest will disappear in a short time, and the ecological services it provides, will be seriously endangered.

Aerodynamic database reconstruction via gappy high order singular value decomposition

Esta Tesis se centra en el desarrollo de un método para la reconstrucción de bases de datos experimentales incompletas de más de dos dimensiones. Como idea general, consiste en la aplicación iterativa de la descomposición en valores singulares de alto orden sobre la base de datos incompleta. Este nuevo método se inspira en el que ha servido de base para la reconstrucción de huecos en bases de datos bidimensionales inventado por Everson y Sirovich (1995) que a su vez, ha sido mejorado por Beckers y Rixen (2003) y simultáneamente por Venturi y Karniadakis (2004). Además, se ha previsto la adaptación de este nuevo método para tratar el posible ruido característico de bases de datos experimentales y a su vez, bases de datos estructuradas cuya información no forma un hiperrectángulo perfecto. Se usará una base de datos tridimensional de muestra como modelo, obtenida a través de una función transcendental, para calibrar e ilustrar el método. A continuación se detalla un exhaustivo estudio del funcionamiento del método y sus variantes para distintas bases de datos aerodinámicas. En concreto, se usarán tres bases de datos tridimensionales que contienen la distribución de presiones sobre un ala. Una se ha generado a través de un método semi-analítico con la intención de estudiar distintos tipos de discretizaciones espaciales. El resto resultan de dos modelos numéricos calculados en C F D . Por último, el método se aplica a una base de datos experimental de más de tres dimensiones que contiene la medida de fuerzas de una configuración ala de Prandtl obtenida de una campaña de ensayos en túnel de viento, donde se estudiaba un amplio espacio de parámetros geométricos de la configuración que como resultado ha generado una base de datos donde la información está dispersa. ABSTRACT A method based on an iterative application of high order singular value decomposition is derived for the reconstruction of missing data in multidimensional databases. The method is inspired by a seminal gappy reconstruction method for two-dimensional databases invented by Everson and Sirovich (1995) and improved by Beckers and Rixen (2003) and Venturi and Karniadakis (2004). In addition, the method is adapted to treat both noisy and structured-but-nonrectangular databases. The method is calibrated and illustrated using a three-dimensional toy model database that is obtained by discretizing a transcendental function. The performance of the method is tested on three aerodynamic databases for the flow past a wing, one obtained by a semi-analytical method, and two resulting from computational fluid dynamics. The method is finally applied to an experimental database consisting in a non-exhaustive parameter space measurement of forces for a box-wing configuration.

Analysis of the behavior of multijunction solar cells under high irradiance Gaussian light profiles showing chromatic aberration with emphasis on tunnel junction performance

In this work, we explain the behavior of multijunction solar cells under non-uniform (spatially and in spectral content) light profiles in general and in particular when Gaussian light profiles cause a photo-generated current density, which exceeds locally the peak current density of the tunnel junction. We have analyzed the implications on the tunnel junction's limitation, that is, in the loss of efficiency due to the appearance of a dip in the I–V curve. For that, we have carried out simulations with our three-dimensional distributed model for multijunction solar cells, which contemplates a full description of the tunnel junction and also takes into account the lateral resistances in the tunnel junction. The main findings are that the current density photo-generated spreads out through the lateral resistances of the device, mainly through the tunnel junction layers and the back contact. Therefore, under non-uniform light profiles these resistances are determinant not only to avoid the tunnel junction's limitation but also for mitigating losses in the fill factor. Therefore, taking into account these lateral resistances could be the key for jointly optimizing the concentrator photovoltaic system (concentrator optics, front grid layout and semiconductor structure)

Population regulation in snowshoe hare and Canadian lynx: Asymmetric food web configurations between hare and lynx

The snowshoe hare and the Canadian lynx in the boreal forests of North America show 9- to 11-year density cycles. These are generally assumed to be linked to each other because lynx are specialist predators on hares. Based on time series data for hare and lynx, we show that the dominant dimensional structure of the hare series appears to be three whereas that of the lynx is two. The three-dimensional structure of the hare time series is hypothesized to be due to a three-trophic level model in which the hare may be seen as simultaneously regulated from below and above. The plant species in the hare diet appear compensatory to one another, and the predator species may, likewise, be seen as an internally compensatory guild. The lynx time series are, in contrast, consistent with a model of donor control in which their populations are regulated from below by prey availability. Thus our analysis suggests that the classic view of a symmetric hare–lynx interaction is too simplistic. Specifically, we argue that the classic food chain structure is inappropriate: the hare is influenced by many predators other than the lynx, and the lynx is primarily influenced by the snowshoe hare.

Real time optimization in chemical process: evaluation of strategies, improvements and industrial application.

The increasing economic competition drives the industry to implement tools that improve their processes efficiencies. The process automation is one of these tools, and the Real Time Optimization (RTO) is an automation methodology that considers economic aspects to update the process control in accordance with market prices and disturbances. Basically, RTO uses a steady-state phenomenological model to predict the process behavior, and then, optimizes an economic objective function subject to this model. Although largely implemented in industry, there is not a general agreement about the benefits of implementing RTO due to some limitations discussed in the present work: structural plant/model mismatch, identifiability issues and low frequency of set points update. Some alternative RTO approaches have been proposed in literature to handle the problem of structural plant/model mismatch. However, there is not a sensible comparison evaluating the scope and limitations of these RTO approaches under different aspects. For this reason, the classical two-step method is compared to more recently derivative-based methods (Modifier Adaptation, Integrated System Optimization and Parameter estimation, and Sufficient Conditions of Feasibility and Optimality) using a Monte Carlo methodology. The results of this comparison show that the classical RTO method is consistent, providing a model flexible enough to represent the process topology, a parameter estimation method appropriate to handle measurement noise characteristics and a method to improve the sample information quality. At each iteration, the RTO methodology updates some key parameter of the model, where it is possible to observe identifiability issues caused by lack of measurements and measurement noise, resulting in bad prediction ability. Therefore, four different parameter estimation approaches (Rotational Discrimination, Automatic Selection and Parameter estimation, Reparametrization via Differential Geometry and classical nonlinear Least Square) are evaluated with respect to their prediction accuracy, robustness and speed. The results show that the Rotational Discrimination method is the most suitable to be implemented in a RTO framework, since it requires less a priori information, it is simple to be implemented and avoid the overfitting caused by the Least Square method. The third RTO drawback discussed in the present thesis is the low frequency of set points update, this problem increases the period in which the process operates at suboptimum conditions. An alternative to handle this problem is proposed in this thesis, by integrating the classic RTO and Self-Optimizing control (SOC) using a new Model Predictive Control strategy. The new approach demonstrates that it is possible to reduce the problem of low frequency of set points updates, improving the economic performance. Finally, the practical aspects of the RTO implementation are carried out in an industrial case study, a Vapor Recompression Distillation (VRD) process located in Paulínea refinery from Petrobras. The conclusions of this study suggest that the model parameters are successfully estimated by the Rotational Discrimination method; the RTO is able to improve the process profit in about 3%, equivalent to 2 million dollars per year; and the integration of SOC and RTO may be an interesting control alternative for the VRD process.

Psychometric behaviour of the strengths and difficulties questionnaire (SDQ) in the Spanish national health survey 2006

Background: The Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) is a tool to measure the risk for mental disorders in children. The aim of this study is to describe the diagnostic efficiency and internal structure of the SDQ in the sample of children studied in the Spanish National Health Survey 2006. Methods: A representative sample of 6,773 children aged 4 to 15 years was studied. The data were obtained using the Minors Questionnaire in the Spanish National Health Survey 2006. The ROC curve was constructed and calculations made of the area under the curve, sensitivity, specificity and the Youden J indices. The factorial structure was studied using models of exploratory factorial analysis (EFA) and confirmatory factorial analysis (CFA). Results: The prevalence of behavioural disorders varied between 0.47% and 1.18% according to the requisites of the diagnostic definition. The area under the ROC curve varied from 0.84 to 0.91 according to the diagnosis. Factor models were cross-validated by means of two different random subsamples for EFA and CFA. An EFA suggested a three correlated factor model. CFA confirmed this model. A five-factor model according to EFA and the theoretical five-factor model described in the bibliography were also confirmed. The reliabilities of the factors of the different models were acceptable (>0.70, except for one factor with reliability 0.62). Conclusions: The diagnostic behaviour of the SDQ in the Spanish population is within the working limits described in other countries. According to the results obtained in this study, the diagnostic efficiency of the questionnaire is adequate to identify probable cases of psychiatric disorders in low prevalence populations. Regarding the factorial structure we found that both the five and the three factor models fit the data with acceptable goodness of fit indexes, the latter including an externalization and internalization dimension and perhaps a meaningful positive social dimension. Accordingly, we recommend studying whether these differences depend on sociocultural factors or are, in fact, due to methodological questions.

Singularidades da intervenção psicológica nos cuidados paliativos

Relatório de Prática Clínica apresentado à Escola Superior de Saúde Dr. Lopes Dias do Instituto Politécnico de Castelo Branco para cumprimento dos requisitos necessários à obtenção do grau de Mestre em Cuidados Paliativos, realizada sob a orientação científica da Diretora da ESALD Doutora Ana Paula Gonçalves Antunes Sapeta, do Instituto Politécnico de Castelo Branco, e orientação científica do Assistente Convidado pela Escola Superior de Saúde Dr. Lopes Dias, Mestre Eduardo Manuel Neves Oliveira Carqueja.

The South Caucasus - Between integration and fragmentation

The South Caucasus is situated at the intersection of Eurasia’s major transport and energy corridors, making it an important geostrategic region. Traditional regional actors Iran, Turkey and Russia have jostled for influence and power in the region for centuries, and are now faced with competition from the EU, China, the US and NATO. Although Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia have been independent for more than two decades, they still continue to feel the sway, and sometimes threat, of external actors. As a response, the three South Caucasus states have chosen very different geostrategic paths since the collapse of the Soviet Union, leaving the region more fragmented and volatile than ever. In this book, various authors offer a deep and broad understanding of the developments in the South Caucasus, analyse the different foreign trajectories that each of the three state is following, and highlight the impact of external actors’ policies.

Preferential trade agreements and antidumping actions against members and nonmembers

In a three-country oligopoly model, this paper analyzes a country's decisions concerning antidumping (AD) action against two foreign countries and the relationship between those decisions and regional trade agreements (RTAs). An RTA intensifies product-market competition in the markets of member countries and lowers product prices, while it raises export prices of goods subject to tariff reductions. This effect widens the dumping margin of the non-member firm and narrows the dumping margin of the member firm. If the government is more concerned with domestic firm profit in its AD decision, the RTA may invoke the member's AD action against the nonmember. If the governments attach a sufficiently high value on social welfare, however, the RTA may promote the AD action against the member. If the governments' weight on the domestic firm's profit is neither high nor low, an RTA may block the AD actions against both countries.