Assessing the Relationship between the Baseline Value of a Continuous Variable and Subsequent Change over Time

Analyzing the relationship between the baseline value and subsequent change of a continuous variable is a frequent matter of inquiry in cohort studies. These analyses are surprisingly complex, particularly if only two waves of data are available. It is unclear for non-biostatisticians where the complexity of this analysis lies and which statistical method is adequate.With the help of simulated longitudinal data of body mass index in children,we review statistical methods for the analysis of the association between the baseline value and subsequent change, assuming linear growth with time. Key issues in such analyses are mathematical coupling, measurement error, variability of change between individuals, and regression to the mean. Ideally, it is better to rely on multiple repeated measurements at different times and a linear random effects model is a standard approach if more than two waves of data are available. If only two waves of data are available, our simulations show that Blomqvist's method - which consists in adjusting for measurement error variance the estimated regression coefficient of observed change on baseline value - provides accurate estimates. The adequacy of the methods to assess the relationship between the baseline value and subsequent change depends on the number of data waves, the availability of information on measurement error, and the variability of change between individuals.

Attrition in the Swiss Household Panel: Is change associated with later drop-out?

This study examines the importance of change in characteristics and circumstances of households and household members for contact and cooperation patterns. The literature suggests that there might be an underrepresentation of change in panel studies, because respondents facing more changes would be more likely to drop out. We approach this problem by analysing whether previous changes are predictive of later attrition or temporary drop-out, using eleven waves of the Swiss Household Panel (1999-2009). Our analyses support previous findings to some extent. Changes in household composition, employment status and social involvement as well as moving are associated mainly with attrition and less with temporary drop-out. These changes affect obtaining cooperation rather than obtaining contact, and tend to increase attrition.

Diptera Brachycera found inside the esophagus of a mummified adult male from the early XIX century, Lisbon, Portugal

Fly puparia and adult fragments of diptera muscid were found inside the esophagus of a mummified body from the early XIX century, buried inside the crypt of the Sacrament Church (Lisbon, Portugal). The identification of the material revealed a monospecific colonization by Ophyra capensis (Wiedemann) (Diptera: Muscidae), a species known to invade corpses in the ammoniacal fermentation wave. This species can be found in corpses kept indoors, not available to the early waves of blowflies (Diptera: Calliphoridae). In the present case, the number of pupae and their developmental stage suggest that the female invaded the mummified corpse through the partially opened mouth and the oviposition took place directly inside the esophagus. This is the first case of O. capensis infesting internal organs of an intact corpse. The use of chemical products for the embalming process probably explains why external colonization did not occur.

Attrition in the Swiss Household Panel

In this paper, we analyze magnitude and possible selectivity of attrition in first wave respondents in the Swiss Household Panel (SHP), from wave two (2000) through wave seven (2005). After comparing attrition of first wave respondents with that of other panel surveys, we proceed to model selectivity of attrition in two steps: we first build separate waveto- wave models, and second a longitudinal all-wave model. The latter model includes wave interaction effects. The first models allow for tracing of selectivity development, i.e. whether an initial selectivity might compensate or cumulates over time, the second to assessing the effects of the covariates in a specific wave, controlling for the base attrition effect. In particular it allows for the analysis of consequences due to discrete fieldwork events. Our results support the findings in the literature: attritors are in general the younger people and the males, foreigners, the socially and politically "excluded", i.e. those who show little social and political interest and participation, those who are mostly dissatisfied with various aspects in their life, and those who live in households with high unit nonresponse, and who exhibit a worse reporting behavior. This pattern is rather cumulative than compensating over panel waves. Excessive attrition in two waves presumably caused by two discrete events in the panel is not particularly selective. Still existing variation in selective attrition is worth to be further explored.

Watching television: a previously unrecognized powerful trigger of λ waves.

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether lambda waves are elicited by watching television (TV) and their association with demographical and EEG features. METHODS: We retrospectively compared lambda wave occurrence in prolonged EEG monitorings of outpatients who were allowed to watch TV and in standard EEGs recorded in TV-free rooms. All EEGs were interpreted by the same two electroencephalographers. RESULTS: Of 2,072 standard EEG reports, 36 (1.7 %) mentioned lambda waves versus 46 (32.2%) of 143 prolonged EEG monitoring reports (P < 0.001). Multivariable comparison of prolonged EEG monitorings and standard EEGs disclosed that recordings performed in rooms with a TV (odds ratio, 20.6; 95% confidence interval, 4.8-88.0) and normal EEGs (odds ratio, 3.03; 95% confidence interval, 1.5-6.25) were independently associated with lambda waves. In the prolonged EEG monitoring group, all recordings with lambda waves also had positive occipital sharp transients of sleep. CONCLUSIONS: Watching TV likely represents a powerful and previously unrecognized stimulus for lambda waves. Furthermore, this study confirms the benign nature of this EEG variant and its strong association with positive occipital sharp transients of sleep.

A genome-wide significant linkage for severe depression on chromosome 3: the depression network study.

Objective: The purpose of this study was to find loci for major depression via linkage analysis of a large sibling pair sample. Method: The authors conducted a genome-wide linkage analysis of 839 families consisting of 971 affected sibling pairs with severe recurrent major depression, comprising waves I and II of the Depression Network Study cohort. In addition to examining affected status, linkage analyses in the full data set were performed using diagnoses restricted by impairment severity, and association mapping of hits in a large case-control data set was attempted. Results: The authors identified genome-wide significant linkage to chromosome 3p25-26 when the diagnoses were restricted by severity, which was a maximum LOD score of 4.0 centered at the linkage marker D3S1515. The linkage signal identified was genome-wide significant after correction for the multiple phenotypes tested, although subsequent association mapping of the region in a genome-wide association study of a U.K. depression sample did not provide significant results. Conclusions: The authors report a genome-wide significant locus for depression that implicates genes that are highly plausible for involvement in the etiology of recurrent depression. Despite the fact that association mapping in the region was negative, the linkage finding was replicated by another group who found genome-wide-significant linkage for depression in the same region. This suggests that 3p25-26 is a new locus for severe recurrent depression. This represents the first report of a genome-wide significant locus for depression that also has an independent genome-wide significant replication.

Electroencephalogram changes during inhalation with nitric oxide in the pediatric intensive care patient--a preliminary report.

OBJECTIVES: Although endogenous nitric oxide (NO) is an excitatory mediator in the central nervous system, inhaled NO is not considered to cause neurologic side effects because of its short half-life. This study was motivated by a recent case report about neurologic symptoms and our own observation of severe electroencephalogram (EEG) abnormalities during NO inhalation. DESIGN: Blind, retrospective analyses of EEGs which were registered before, during, and after NO inhalation. EEG was classified in a 5-point rating system by an independent electroencephalographer who was blinded to the patients' clinical histories. Comparisons were made with the previous evaluation documented at recording. Other EEG-influencing parameters such as oxygen saturation, hemodynamics, electrolytes, and pH were evaluated. SETTING: Pediatric intensive care unit of a tertiary care university children's hospital. PATIENTS: Eleven ventilated, long-term paralyzed, sedated children (1 mo to 14 yrs) who had EEG or clinical assessment before NO treatment and EEG during NO inhalation. They were divided into two groups according to the NO-indication (e.g., congenital heart defect, acute respiratory distress syndrome). MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: All 11 patients had an abnormal EEG during NO inhalation. EEG-controls without NO showed remarkable improvement. EEG abnormalities were background slowing, low voltage, suppression burst (n = 2), and sharp waves (n = 2) independent of patients' age, NO-indication, and other EEG-influencing parameters. CONCLUSIONS: These preliminary data suggest the occurrence of EEG-abnormalities after application of inhaled NO in critically ill children. We found no correlation with other potential EEG-influencing parameters, although clinical state, medication, or hypoxemia might contribute. Comprehensive, prospective, clinical assessment regarding a causal relationship between NO-inhalation and EEG-abnormalities and their clinical importance is needed.

The Ca(V)3.3 calcium channel is the major sleep spindle pacemaker in thalamus.

Low-threshold (T-type) Ca(2+) channels encoded by the Ca(V)3 genes endow neurons with oscillatory properties that underlie slow waves characteristic of the non-rapid eye movement (NREM) sleep EEG. Three Ca(V)3 channel subtypes are expressed in the thalamocortical (TC) system, but their respective roles for the sleep EEG are unclear. Ca(V)3.3 protein is expressed abundantly in the nucleus reticularis thalami (nRt), an essential oscillatory burst generator. We report the characterization of a transgenic Ca(V)3.3(-/-) mouse line and demonstrate that Ca(V)3.3 channels are indispensable for nRt function and for sleep spindles, a hallmark of natural sleep. The absence of Ca(V)3.3 channels prevented oscillatory bursting in the low-frequency (4-10 Hz) range in nRt cells but spared tonic discharge. In contrast, adjacent TC neurons expressing Ca(V)3.1 channels retained low-threshold bursts. Nevertheless, the generation of synchronized thalamic network oscillations underlying sleep-spindle waves was weakened markedly because of the reduced inhibition of TC neurons via nRt cells. T currents in Ca(V)3.3(-/-) mice were <30% compared with those in WT mice, and the remaining current, carried by Ca(V)3.2 channels, generated dendritic [Ca(2+)](i) signals insufficient to provoke oscillatory bursting that arises from interplay with Ca(2+)-dependent small conductance-type 2 K(+) channels. Finally, naturally sleeping Ca(V)3.3(-/-) mice showed a selective reduction in the power density of the σ frequency band (10-12 Hz) at transitions from NREM to REM sleep, with other EEG waves remaining unaltered. Together, these data identify a central role for Ca(V)3.3 channels in the rhythmogenic properties of the sleep-spindle generator and provide a molecular target to elucidate the roles of sleep spindles for brain function and development.

Attrition in the Swiss Household Panel: Is change associated with drop-out?

This study examines the importance of change in characteristics and circumstances ofhouseholds and household members for contact and cooperation patterns. The literaturesuggests that there might be an underrepresentation of change in panel studies, becauserespondents facing more changes would be more likely to drop out. We approach this problemby analysing whether previous changes are predictive of later attrition or temporary drop-out,using eleven waves of the Swiss Household Panel (1999-2009). Our analyses supportprevious findings to some extent. Changes in household composition, employment status andsocial involvement as well as moving are associated mainly with attrition and less withtemporary drop-out. These changes affect obtaining cooperation rather than obtaining contact,and tend to increase attrition.

Two waves of recombinase gene expression in developing thymocytes.

During T cell development in the thymus, T cell receptor (TCR) alpha, beta, gamma, and delta genes are rearranged and expressed. TCR rearrangement strictly depends upon the coordinate activity of two recombinase activating genes, Rag-1 and Rag-2. In this study we have followed the expression of these genes at different stages of intrathymic development. The results indicate that there are two periods of high Rag-1 and Rag-2 mRNA expression. The first wave peaks early at the CD25+CD4-CD8-CD3- stage of development and coincides with the initial appearance of transcripts derived from fully rearranged TCR beta, gamma, and delta genes, whereas the second wave occurs later at the CD4+CD8+ stage coincident with full-length TCR alpha mRNA expression. Active downregulation of Rag-1 and Rag-2 mRNA expression appears to occur in vivo between the two peaks of recombinase activity. This phenomenon can be mimicked in vitro in response to artificial stimuli such as phorbol myristate acetate and calcium ionophore. Collectively our data suggest that recombinase expression is actively regulated during early thymus development independently of cell surface expression of a mature heterodimeric TCR protein complex.

The CNGCb and CNGCd genes from Physcomitrella patens moss encode for thermosensory calcium channels responding to fluidity changes in the plasma membrane.

Land plants need precise thermosensors to timely establish molecular defenses in anticipation of upcoming noxious heat waves. The plasma membrane-embedded cyclic nucleotide-gated Ca(2+) channels (CNGCs) can translate mild variations of membrane fluidity into an effective heat shock response, leading to the accumulation of heat shock proteins (HSP) that prevent heat damages in labile proteins and membranes. Here, we deleted by targeted mutagenesis the CNGCd gene in two Physcomitrella patens transgenic moss lines containing either the heat-inducible HSP-GUS reporter cassette or the constitutive UBI-Aequorin cassette. The stable CNGCd knockout mutation caused a hyper-thermosensitive moss phenotype, in which the heat-induced entry of apoplastic Ca(2+) and the cytosolic accumulation of GUS were triggered at lower temperatures than in wild type. The combined effects of an artificial membrane fluidizer and elevated temperatures suggested that the gene products of CNGCd and CNGCb are paralogous subunits of Ca(2+)channels acting as a sensitive proteolipid thermocouple. Depending on the rate of temperature increase, the duration and intensity of the heat priming preconditions, terrestrial plants may thus acquire an array of HSP-based thermotolerance mechanisms against upcoming, otherwise lethal, extreme heat waves.

Not the right job but a secure one : over-education and temporary employment in France, Italy and Spain

Resorting to four waves of the European Community Household Panel, this research explores the association between temporary employment and the likelihood of being over-educated. Such an association has been largely ignored by the literature explaining over-education, more inclined to attribute such a mismatch to the system of education. Selecting three similarly standarised and stratified systems of education (France, Italy and Spain) and controlling for many other variables likely to affect over-education, like gender, age, tenure, job change, firm size or sector, the paper demonstrates that such an association between temporary employment and over-education exists. Being a stepping stone towards a more stable and adjusted position in the labour market, holding a temporary employment may be associated to a higher likelihood of being over-educated. Such an association is more likely in Italy and France. Yet, the opposite sign prevails where permanent employment becomes such a valuable asset as to make individuals trade human capital by employment security. This is the case of Spain.

Early-onset acquired epileptic aphasia (Landau-Kleffner syndrome, LKS) and regressive autistic disorders with epileptic EEG abnormalities: the continuing debate.

Early-onset acquired epileptic aphasia (Landau-Kleffner syndrome) may present as a developmental language disturbance and the affected child may also exhibit autistic features. Landau-Kleffner is now seen as the rare and severe end of a spectrum of cognitive-behavioural symptoms that can be seen in idiopathic (genetic) focal epilepsies of childhood, the benign end being the more frequent typical rolandic epilepsy. Several recent studies show that many children with rolandic epilepsy have minor developmental cognitive and behavioural problems and that some undergo a deterioration (usually temporary) in these domains, the so-called "atypical" forms of the syndrome. The severity and type of deterioration correlate with the site and spread of the epileptic spikes recorded on the electroencephalogram within the perisylvian region, and continuous spike-waves during sleep (CSWS) frequently occur during this period of the epileptic disorder. Some of these children have more severe preexisting communicative and language developmental disorders. If early stagnation or regression occurs in these domains, it presumably reflects epileptic activity in networks outside the perisylvian area, i.e. those involved in social cognition and emotions. Longitudinal studies will be necessary to find out if and how much the bioelectrical abnormalities play a causal role in these subgroup of children with both various degrees of language and autistic regression and features of idiopathic focal epilepsy. One has to remember that it took nearly 40 years to fully acknowledge the epileptic origin of aphasia in Landau-Kleffner syndrome and the milder acquired cognitive problems in rolandic epilepsies.

ECG interpretation during the acute phase of coronary syndromes: in need of improvement?

QUESTION UNDER STUDY: Emergency room (ER) interpretation of the ECG is critical to assessment of patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS). Our aim was to assess its reliability in our institution, a tertiary teaching hospital. METHODS: Over a 6-month period all consecutive patients admitted for ACS were included in the study. ECG interpretation by emergency physicians (EPs) was recorded on a preformatted sheet and compared with the interpretation of two specialist physicians (SPs). Discrepancies between the 2 specialists were resolved by an ECG specialist. RESULTS: Over the 6-month period, 692 consecutive patients were admitted with suspected ACS. ECG interpretation was available in 641 cases (93%). Concordance between SPs was 87%. Interpretation of normality or abnormality of the ECG was concordant between EPs and SPs in 475 cases (74%, kappa = 0.51). Interpretation of ischaemic modifications was concordant in 69% of cases, and as many ST segment elevations were unrecognised as overdiagnosed (5% each). The same findings occurred for ST segment depressions and negative T waves (12% each). CONCLUSIONS: Interpretation of the ECG recorded during ACS by 2 SPs was discrepant in 13% of cases. Similarly, EP interpretation was discrepant from SP interpretation in 25% of cases, equally distributed between over- and underdiagnosing of ischaemic changes. The clinical implications and impact of medical education on ECG interpretation require further study.

Endogenous spillovers, increased competition and re-organization waves

We consider an entrepreneur that is the sole producer of a costreducing skill, but the entrepreneur that hires a team to usethe skill cannot prevent collusive trade for the innovation related knowledge between employees and competitors. We showthat there are two types of diffusion avoiding strategies forthe entrepreneur to preempt collusive communication i) settingup a large productive capacity (the traditional firm) and ii)keeping a small team (the lean firm). The traditional firm ischaracterized by its many "marginal" employees that work shortdays, receive flat wages and are incompletely informed about the innovation. The lean firm is small in number of employees,engages in complete information sharing among members, that are paid with stock option schemes. We find that the lean firm is superior to the traditional firm when technological entry costsare low and when the sector is immature.