Mechanisms shaping size structure and functional diversity of phytoplankton communities in the ocean

The factors regulating phytoplankton community composition play a crucial role in structuring aquatic food webs. However, consensus is still lacking about the mechanisms underlying the observed biogeographical differences in cell size composition of phytoplankton communities. Here we use a trait-based model to disentangle these mechanisms in two contrasting regions of the Atlantic Ocean. In our model, the phytoplankton community can self-assemble based on a trade-off emerging from relationships between cell size and (1) nutrient uptake, (2) zooplankton grazing, and (3) phytoplankton sinking. Grazing 'pushes' the community towards larger cell sizes, whereas nutrient uptake and sinking 'pull' the community towards smaller cell sizes. We find that the stable environmental conditions of the tropics strongly balance these forces leading to persistently small cell sizes and reduced size diversity. In contrast, the seasonality of the temperate region causes the community to regularly reorganize via shifts in species composition and to exhibit, on average, bigger cell sizes and higher size diversity than in the tropics. Our results raise the importance of environmental variability as a key structuring mechanism of plankton communities in the ocean and call for a reassessment of the current understanding of phytoplankton diversity patterns across latitudinal gradients.

The pressure distribution along the stone column in soft clay when subjected to consolidation and foundation loading

The mechanism whereby the foundation loading is transmitted through stone the column (included in soft clay) has received less attention from researchers. This paper reports on some interesting findings obtained from a laboratory-based model study in respect of this issue. The stone column, included in the soft clay bed was subjected to foundation loading under drained conditions. The results show, probably for the first time, how the foundation loadings are transmitted through the column and indeed the existence of “negative skin friction” (a widely accepted phenomena in solid piles) in granular columns in soft clays.

The pressure distribution along stone columns in soft clay under consolidation and foundation loading

The mechanism whereby foundation loading is transmitted through the column has received little attention from researchers. This paper reports on some interesting findings obtained from a laboratory-based model study in respect of this issue. The model tests were carried out on samples of soft clay, 300 mm in diameter and 400 mm high. The samples were reinforced with fully penetrating stone columns, of three different diameters, made of crushed basalt. Four pressure cells were located along each stone column. The 60 mm diameter footing used in the model was supported on a clay bed reinforced with a stone column and subjected to foundation loading under drained conditions. The results show that the dissipation of excess pore water pressure developed during the initial application of total stresses, when the foundation was subjected to no loading, generated considerable stresses within the column, and that this was directly attributable to the development of negative skin friction. The pressure distributions in the column during foundation loading showed some complex behaviour.

Using simulation to assess cardiac first-responder schemes exhibiting stochastic and spatial complexities

A Monte-Carlo simulation-based model has been constructed to assess a public health scheme involving mobile-volunteer cardiac First-Responders. The scheme being assessed aims to improve survival of Sudden-Cardiac-Arrest (SCA) patients, through reducing the time until administration of life-saving defibrillation treatment, with volunteers being paged to respond to possible SCA incidents alongside the Emergency Medical Services. The need for a model, for example, to assess the impact of the scheme in different geographical regions, was apparent upon collection of observational trial data (given it exhibited stochastic and spatial complexities). The simulation-based model developed has been validated and then used to assess the scheme's benefits in an alternative rural region (not a part of the original trial). These illustrative results conclude that the scheme may not be the most efficient use of National Health Service resources in this geographical region, thus demonstrating the importance and usefulness of simulation modelling in aiding decision making.

The role of regret minimisation in lifestyle choices affecting the risk of coronary heart disease

This paper introduces the discrete choice model-paradigm of Random Regret Minimisation (RRM) to the field of health economics. The RRM is a regret-based model that explores a driver of choice different from the traditional utility-based Random Utility Maximisation (RUM). The RRM approach is based on the idea that, when choosing, individuals aim to minimise their regret–regret being defined as what one experiences when a non-chosen alternative in a choice set performs better than a chosen one in relation to one or more attributes. Analysing data from a discrete choice experiment on diet, physical activity and risk of a fatal heart attack in the next ten years administered to a sample of the Northern Ireland population, we find that the combined use of RUM and RRM models offer additional information, providing useful behavioural insights for better informed policy appraisal.

Application of a mechanobiological simulation technique to stents used clinically

Many cardiovascular diseases are characterised by the restriction of blood flow through arteries. Stents can be expanded within arteries to remove such restrictions; however, tissue in-growth into the stent can lead to restenosis. In order to predict the long-term efficacy of stenting, a mechanobiological model of the arterial tissue reaction to stress is required. In this study, a computational model of arterial tissue response to stenting is applied to three clinically relevant stent designs. We ask the question whether such a mechanobiological model can differentiate between stents used clinically, and we compare these predictions to a purely mechanical analysis. In doing so, we are testing the hypothesis that a mechanobiological model of arterial tissue response to injury could predict the long-term outcomes of stent design. Finite element analysis of the expansion of three different stent types was performed in an idealised, 3D artery. Injury was calculated in the arterial tissue using a remaining-life damage mechanics approach. The inflammatory response to this initial injury was modelled using equations governing variables which represented tissue-degrading species and growth factors. Three levels of inflammation response were modelled to account for inter-patient variability. A lattice-based model of smooth muscle cell behaviour was implemented, treating cells as discrete agents governed by local rules. The simulations predicted differences between stent designs similar to those found in vivo. It showed that the volume of neointima produced could be quantified, providing a quantitative comparison of stents. In contrast, the differences between stents based on stress alone were highly dependent on the choice of comparison criteria. These results show that the choice of stress criteria for stent comparisons is critical. This study shows that mechanobiological modelling may provide a valuable tool in stent design, allowing predictions of their long-term efficacy. The level of inflammation was shown to affect the sensitivity of the model to stent design. If this finding was verified in patients, this could suggest that high-inflammation patients may require alternative treatments to stenting.

Emerging asymmetric interactions between forage and predator fisheries impose management trade-offs

A size and trait-based marine community model was used to investigate interactions, with potential implications for yields, when a fishery targeting forage fish species (whose main adult diet is zooplankton) co-occurs with a fishery targeting larger-sized predator species. Predicted effects on the size structure of the fish community, growth and recruitment of fishes, and yield from the fisheries were used to identify management trade-offs among the different fisheries. Results showed that moderate fishing on forage fishes imposed only small effects on predator fisheries, whereas predator fisheries could enhance yield from forage fisheries under some circumstances.

Discriminating Taxonomic Categories and Domains in Mental Simulations of Concepts of Varying Concreteness

Most studies of conceptual knowledge in the brain focus on a narrow range of concrete conceptual categories, rely on the researchers' intuitions about which object belongs to these categories, and assume a broadly taxonomic organization of knowledge. In this fMRI study, we focus on concepts with a variety of concreteness levels; we use a state of the art lexical resource (WordNet 3.1) as the source for a relatively large number of category distinctions and compare a taxonomic style of organization with a domain-based model (associating concepts with scenarios). Participants mentally simulated situations associated with concepts when cued by text stimuli. Using multivariate pattern analysis, we find evidence that all Taxonomic categories and Domains can be distinguished from fMRI data and also observe a clear concreteness effect: Tools and Locations can be reliably predicted for unseen participants, but less concrete categories (e.g., Attributes, Communications, Events, Social Roles) can only be reliably discriminated within participants. A second concreteness effect relates to the interaction of Domain and Taxonomic category membership: Domain (e.g., relation to Law vs. Music) can be better predicted for less concrete categories. We repeated the analysis within anatomical regions, observing discrimination between all/most categories in the left middle occipital and temporal gyri, and more specialized discrimination for concrete categories Tool and Location in the left precentral and fusiform gyri, respectively. Highly concrete/abstract Taxonomic categories and Domain were segregated in frontal regions. We conclude that both Taxonomic and Domain class distinctions are relevant for interpreting neural structuring of concrete and abstract concepts.

Emotional insecurity in the family and community and youth delinquency in Northern Ireland: A person-oriented analysis across five-waves

Background: Over one billion children are exposed worldwide to political violence and armed conflict. Currently, conclusions about bases for adjustment problems are qualified by limited longitudinal research from a process-oriented, social-ecological perspective. In this study, we examined a theoretically-based model for the impact of multiple levels of the social ecology (family, community) on adolescent delinquency. Specifically, this study explored the impact of children’s emotional insecurity about both the family and community on youth delinquency in Northern Ireland. Methods: In the context of a five-wave longitudinal research design, participants included 999 mother-child dyads in Belfast (482 boys, 517 girls), drawn from socially-deprived, ethnically-homogenous areas that had experienced political violence. Youth ranged in age from 10 to 20 and were 12.18 (SD = 1.82) years old on average at Time 1. Findings: The longitudinal analyses were conducted in hierarchical linear modeling (HLM), allowing for the modeling of inter-individual differences in intra-individual change. Intra-individual trajectories of emotional insecurity about the family related to children’s delinquency. Greater insecurity about the community worsened the impact of family conflict on youth’s insecurity about the family, consistent with the notion that youth’s insecurity about the community sensitizes them to exposure to family conflict in the home. Conclusions: The results suggest that ameliorating children’s insecurity about family and community in contexts of political violence is an important goal toward improving adolescents’ well-being, including reduced risk for delinquency.

Exploiting Human Resource Requirements to Infer Human Movement Patterns for Use in Modelling Disease Transmission Systems: An Example from Eastern Province, Zambia

In this research, an agent-based model (ABM) was developed to generate human movement routes between homes and water resources in a rural setting, given commonly available geospatial datasets on population distribution, land cover and landscape resources. ABMs are an object-oriented computational approach to modelling a system, focusing on the interactions of autonomous agents, and aiming to assess the impact of these agents and their interactions on the system as a whole. An A* pathfinding algorithm was implemented to produce walking routes, given data on the terrain in the area. A* is an extension of Dijkstra's algorithm with an enhanced time performance through the use of heuristics. In this example, it was possible to impute daily activity movement patterns to the water resource for all villages in a 75 km long study transect across the Luangwa Valley, Zambia, and the simulated human movements were statistically similar to empirical observations on travel times to the water resource (Chi-squared, 95% confidence interval). This indicates that it is possible to produce realistic data regarding human movements without costly measurement as is commonly achieved, for example, through GPS, or retrospective or real-time diaries. The approach is transferable between different geographical locations, and the product can be useful in providing an insight into human movement patterns, and therefore has use in many human exposure-related applications, specifically epidemiological research in rural areas, where spatial heterogeneity in the disease landscape, and space-time proximity of individuals, can play a crucial role in disease spread.

An aggregated fridge-freezer peak shaving and valley filling control strategy for enhanced grid operations

The need for fast response demand side participation (DSP) has never been greater due to increased wind power penetration. White domestic goods suppliers are currently developing a `smart' chip for a range of domestic appliances (e.g. refrigeration units, tumble dryers and storage heaters) to support the home as a DSP unit in future power systems. This paper presents an aggregated population-based model of a single compressor fridge-freezer. Two scenarios (i.e. energy efficiency class and size) for valley filling and peak shaving are examined to quantify and value DSP savings in 2020. The analysis shows potential peak reductions of 40 MW to 55 MW are achievable in the Single wholesale Electricity Market of Ireland (i.e. the test system), and valley demand increases of up to 30 MW. The study also shows the importance of the control strategy start time and the staggering of the devices to obtain the desired filling or shaving effect.

Context-dependent Combination of Sensor Information in Dempster-Shafer Theory for BDI

There has been much interest in the belief–desire–intention (BDI) agent-based model for developing scalable intelligent systems, e.g. using the AgentSpeak framework. However, reasoning from sensor information in these large-scale systems remains a significant challenge. For example, agents may be faced with information from heterogeneous sources which is uncertain and incomplete, while the sources themselves may be unreliable or conflicting. In order to derive meaningful conclusions, it is important that such information be correctly modelled and combined. In this paper, we choose to model uncertain sensor information in Dempster–Shafer (DS) theory. Unfortunately, as in other uncertainty theories, simple combination strategies in DS theory are often too restrictive (losing valuable information) or too permissive (resulting in ignorance). For this reason, we investigate how a context-dependent strategy originally defined for possibility theory can be adapted to DS theory. In particular, we use the notion of largely partially maximal consistent subsets (LPMCSes) to characterise the context for when to use Dempster’s original rule of combination and for when to resort to an alternative. To guide this process, we identify existing measures of similarity and conflict for finding LPMCSes along with quality of information heuristics to ensure that LPMCSes are formed around high-quality information. We then propose an intelligent sensor model for integrating this information into the AgentSpeak framework which is responsible for applying evidence propagation to construct compatible information, for performing context-dependent combination and for deriving beliefs for revising an agent’s belief base. Finally, we present a power grid scenario inspired by a real-world case study to demonstrate our work.

Adapting to time: duration channels do not mediate human time perception

Accurately encoding the duration and temporal order of events is essential for survival and important to everyday activities, from holding conversations to driving in fast flowing traffic. Although there is a growing body of evidence that the timing of brief events (< 1s) is encoded by modality-specific mechanisms, it is not clear how such mechanisms register event duration. One approach gaining traction is a channel-based model; this envisages narrowly-tuned, overlapping timing mechanisms that respond preferentially to different durations. The channel-based model predicts that adapting to a given event duration will result in overestimating and underestimating the duration of longer and shorter events, respectively. We tested the model by having observers judge the duration of a brief (600ms) visual test stimulus following adaptation to longer (860ms) and shorter (340ms) stimulus durations. The channel-based model predicts perceived duration compression of the test stimulus in the former condition and perceived duration expansion in the latter condition. Duration compression occurred in both conditions, suggesting that the channel-based model does not adequately account for perceived duration of visual events.

TELL ME Design: Protective Behaviour During an Epidemic

The TELL ME agent based model simulates the connections between health agency communication, personal decisions to adopt protective behaviour during an influenza epidemic, and the effect of those decisions on epidemic progress. The behaviour decisions are modelled with a combination of personal attitude, behaviour adoption by neighbours, and the local recent incidence of influenza. This paper sets out and justifies the model design, including how these decision factors have been operationalised. By exploring the effects of different communication strategies, the model is intended to assist health authorities with their influenza epidemic communication plans. It can both assist users to understand the complex interactions between communication, personal behaviour and epidemic progress, and guide future data collection to improve communication planning.

Mercury (II) removal from aqueous solutions by microporous materials

O Mercúrio é um dos metais pesados mais tóxicos existentes no meio ambiente, é persistente e caracteriza-se por bioamplificar e bioacumular ao longo da cadeia trófica. A poluição com mercúrio é um problema à escala global devido à combinação de emissões naturais e emissões antropogénicas, o que obriga a políticas ambientais mais restritivas sobre a descarga de metais pesados. Consequentemente o desenvolvimento de novos e eficientes materiais e de novas tecnologias para remover mercúrio de efluentes é necessário e urgente. Neste contexto, alguns materiais microporosos provenientes de duas famílias, titanossilicatos e zirconossilicatos, foram investigados com o objectivo de avaliar a sua capacidade para remover iões Hg2+ de soluções aquosas. De um modo geral, quase todos os materiais estudados apresentaram elevadas percentagens de remoção, confirmando que são bons permutadores iónicos e que têm capacidade para serem utilizados como agentes descontaminantes. O titanossilicato ETS-4 foi o material mais estudado devido à sua elevada eficiência de remoção (>98%), aliada à pequena quantidade de massa necessária para atingir essa elevada percentagem de remoção. Com apenas 4 mg⋅dm-3 de ETS-4 foi possível tratar uma solução com uma concentração igual ao valor máximo admissível para descargas de efluentes em cursos de água (50 μg⋅dm-3) e obter água com qualidade para consumo humano (<1.0 μg⋅dm-3), de acordo com a legislação Portuguesa (DL 236/98). Tal como para outros adsorbentes, a capacidade de remoção de Hg2+ do ETS- 4 depende de várias condições experimentais, tais como o tempo de contacto, a massa, a concentração inicial de mercúrio, o pH e a temperatura. Do ponto de vista industrial as condições óptimas para a aplicação do ETS-4 são bastante atractivas, uma vez que não requerem grandes quantidades de material e o tratamento da solução pode ser feito à temperatura ambiente. A aplicação do ETS-4 torna-se ainda mais interessante no caso de efluentes hospitalares, de processos de electro-deposição com níquel, metalúrgica, extracção de minérios, especialmente ouro, e indústrias de fabrico de cloro e soda cáustica, uma vez que estes efluentes apresentam valores de pH semelhantes ao valor de pH óptimo para a aplicação do ETS-4. A cinética do processo de troca iónica é bem descrita pelo modelo Nernst-Planck, enquanto que os dados de equilíbrio são bem ajustados pelas isotérmicas de Langmuir e de Freundlich. Os parâmetros termodinâmicos, ΔG° and ΔH° indicam que a remoção de Hg2+ pelo ETS-4 é um processo espontâneo e exotérmico. A elevada eficiência do ETS-4 é confirmada pelos valores da capacidade de remoção de outros materiais para os iões Hg2+, descritos na literatura. A utilização de coluna de ETS-4 preparada no nosso laboratório, para a remoção em contínuo de Hg2+ confirma que este material apresenta um grande potencial para ser utilizado no tratamento de águas. ABSTRACT: Mercury is one of the most toxic heavy metals, exhibiting a persistent character in the environment and biota as well as bioamplification and bioaccumulation along the food chain. Natural inputs combined with the global anthropogenic sources make mercury pollution a planetary-scale problem, and strict environmental policies on metal discharges have been enforced. The development of efficient new materials and clean-up technologies for removing mercury from effluents is, thus, timely. In this context, in my study, several microporous materials from two families, titanosilicates and zirconosilicates were investigated in order to assess their Hg2+ sorption capacity and removal efficiency, under different operating conditions. In general, almost all microporous materials studied exhibited high removal efficiencies, confirming that they are good ion exchangers and have potential to be used as Hg2+ decontaminant agents. Titanosilicate ETS-4 was the material most studied here, by its highest removal efficiency (>98%) and lowest mass necessary to attain it. Moreover, according with the Portuguese legislation (DL 236/98) it is possible to attain drinking water quality (i.e. [Hg2+]< 1.0 μg⋅dm-3) by treating a solution with a Hg2+ concentration equal to the maximum value admissible for effluents discharges into water bodies (50 μg⋅dm-3), using only 4 mg⋅dm-3 of ETS-4. Even in the presence of major freshwater cations, ETS-4 removal efficiency remains high. Like for other adsorbents, the sorption capacity of ETS-4 for Hg2+ ions is strongly dependent on the operating conditions, such as contact time, mass, initial Hg2+ concentration and solution pH and, to a lesser extent, temperature. The optimum operating conditions found for ETS-4 are very attractive from the industrial point of view because the application of ETS-4 for the treatment of wastewater and/or industrial effluents will not require larges amounts of adsorbent, neither energy supply for temperature adjustments becoming the removal process economically competitive. These conditions become even more interesting in the case of medical institutions liquid, nickel electroplating process, copper smelter, gold ore tailings and chlor-alkali effluents, since no significant pH adjustments to the effluent are necessary. The ion exchange kinetics of Hg2+ uptake is successfully described by the Nernst-Planck based model, while the ion exchange equilibrium is well fitted by both Langmuir and Freundlich isotherms. Moreover, the feasibility of the removal process was confirmed by the thermodynamic parameters (ΔG° and ΔH°) which indicate that the Hg2+ sorption by ETS-4 is spontaneous and exothermic. The higher efficiency of ETS-4 for Hg2+ ions is corroborate by the values reported in literature for the sorption capacity of other adsorbents for Hg2+ ions. The use of an ETS-4 fixed-bed ion exchange column, manufactured in our laboratory, in the continuous removal of Hg2+ ions from solutions confirms that this titanosilicate has potential to be used in industrial water treatment.