Dynamic Programming Approaches for Estimating and Applying Large-scale Discrete Choice Models

People go through their life making all kinds of decisions, and some of these decisions affect their demand for transportation, for example, their choices of where to live and where to work, how and when to travel and which route to take. Transport related choices are typically time dependent and characterized by large number of alternatives that can be spatially correlated. This thesis deals with models that can be used to analyze and predict discrete choices in large-scale networks. The proposed models and methods are highly relevant for, but not limited to, transport applications. We model decisions as sequences of choices within the dynamic discrete choice framework, also known as parametric Markov decision processes. Such models are known to be difficult to estimate and to apply to make predictions because dynamic programming problems need to be solved in order to compute choice probabilities. In this thesis we show that it is possible to explore the network structure and the flexibility of dynamic programming so that the dynamic discrete choice modeling approach is not only useful to model time dependent choices, but also makes it easier to model large-scale static choices. The thesis consists of seven articles containing a number of models and methods for estimating, applying and testing large-scale discrete choice models. In the following we group the contributions under three themes: route choice modeling, large-scale multivariate extreme value (MEV) model estimation and nonlinear optimization algorithms. Five articles are related to route choice modeling. We propose different dynamic discrete choice models that allow paths to be correlated based on the MEV and mixed logit models. The resulting route choice models become expensive to estimate and we deal with this challenge by proposing innovative methods that allow to reduce the estimation cost. For example, we propose a decomposition method that not only opens up for possibility of mixing, but also speeds up the estimation for simple logit models, which has implications also for traffic simulation. Moreover, we compare the utility maximization and regret minimization decision rules, and we propose a misspecification test for logit-based route choice models. The second theme is related to the estimation of static discrete choice models with large choice sets. We establish that a class of MEV models can be reformulated as dynamic discrete choice models on the networks of correlation structures. These dynamic models can then be estimated quickly using dynamic programming techniques and an efficient nonlinear optimization algorithm. Finally, the third theme focuses on structured quasi-Newton techniques for estimating discrete choice models by maximum likelihood. We examine and adapt switching methods that can be easily integrated into usual optimization algorithms (line search and trust region) to accelerate the estimation process. The proposed dynamic discrete choice models and estimation methods can be used in various discrete choice applications. In the area of big data analytics, models that can deal with large choice sets and sequential choices are important. Our research can therefore be of interest in various demand analysis applications (predictive analytics) or can be integrated with optimization models (prescriptive analytics). Furthermore, our studies indicate the potential of dynamic programming techniques in this context, even for static models, which opens up a variety of future research directions.

Mechanical behavior of rock joints: influence of joint roughness on its closure and shear behavior

En esta tesis se estudia la fricción en juntas rocosas utilizando el Método de Elementos Discretos (DEM). En particular, se estudia la influencia de la rugosidad de las superficies de la junta, la elasticidad, la fractura, y el nivel de carga de compresión sobre el comportamiento de cierre y de cizalla de las juntas rocosas. Por primera vez la rugosidad de las juntas considerada como auto-afín es utilizada para estudiar la fricción de juntas rocosas, la rugosidad se describe mediante tres parámetros: el exponente de rugosidad, la longitud de correlación auto-afín y la varianza de alturas. Mediante un algoritmo de computadora basado en métodos espectrales, ocho superficies autoafines isotrópicas con diferente rugosidad fueron creadas. Posteriormente, las ocho superficies fueron utilizadas como moldes para generar las juntas utilizando elementos discretos. Antes de realizar las simulaciones de compresión y cizallaura, se calibraron las propiedades elásticas y de fractura (criterio de fractura elíptico basado en esfuerzos) de las juntas numéricas a los datos experimentales (obtenidos previamente) de unas muestras de mortero mediante la utilización de un volumen elemental representativo (REV). Una vez que las propiedades mecánicas de las juntas se obtuvieron mediante la calibración del REV, se realizaron las pruebas de cierre (prueba de compresión) de las ocho juntas DEM. Se utilizaron dos niveles de esfuerzo de compresión para las pruebas de cierre: 14 MPa y 21 MPa. Después, las ocho juntas DEM fueron cizalladas en dos direcciones mutuamente perpendiculares. Para cada dirección de cizalla y cada nivel de esfuerzo de compresión (14 y 21 MPa), las juntas fueron cizalladas usando uno de los tres modelos mecánicos siguientes: 1) un modelo rígido, en el que las juntas no se pueden deformar, excepto en su superficie, 2) un modelo puramente elástico, en el que las juntas se pueden deformar en todo su volumen y 3) un modelo elástico con fractura en el que las juntas se pueden deformar en su volumen y, si el esfuerzo sobre las uniones entre partículas excede cierto nivel de esfuerzo máximo, las uniones se rompen de una manera irreversible. El uso de estos tres modelos mecánicos nos permitirá estudiar de manera sistemática: la influencia de la rugosidad (modelo rígido), la influencia de la elasticidad y rugosidad (modelo puramente elástico) y, finalmente, el efecto combinado de la rugosidad de las juntas, la elasticidad y la fractura (modelo elástico con fractura). El estudio de los resultados obtenidos de las simulaciones DEM es seguido por una análisis energético el cual permite estudiar la evolución de los diferentes tipos de energía en función del desplazamiento de cizalla: energía elástica almacenada en el sistema, energía de fricción entre elementos discretos, el trabajo relacionado con la dilatación de la junta y la energía disipada por el amortiguamiento interno del DEM.

Work engagement among school directors and teachers' behavior at work

Using data from a representative sample of public primary schools in Madagascar, this paper analyzes engagement at work among school directors and investigates the impact of school heads' supervisory roles on teachers' behavior at work. The results show clear signs of weak management within public primary schools. We find that school heads' engagement at work is positively associated with their employment conditions, job satisfaction, and overall working environment. The results also indicate that principals' management styles have a positive effect on teachers’ commitment at work, but no significant impact on absenteeism.

Salivary cortisol level and uncooperative behavior in pediatric dental practice

Aim: To investigate the relation between uncooperative behavior and salivary cortisol level in children who underwent preventive dental care. Methods: The sample was composed by 10 children of both sexes aged 40 to 52 months, presenting uncooperative behavior during dental preventive treatments. The saliva collection was performed using a cotton wheel and an Eppendorf tube (Sarstedt Salivete®) in 3 different moments: a) at home, on a day without dental treatment and at the same time on the day of the sessions treatment; b) 30 min after the end of the session, when there was manifestation of uncooperative behavior; c) 30 min after the end of the session, when there was a cooperative behavior of the child. A sample of saliva was centrifuged for 5 minutes at 2400 rpm, 1 of mL of saliva was pipetted in an Eppendorf tube and stored in a freezer at -20 ° C. For the determination of the levels of salivary cortisol was used an Active® kit for cortisol enzyme immunoassay (EIA) DSL-10-67100, composed of specific rabbit antibody anti-cortisol. Data were analyzed statistically for the uncooperative behavior issued in the beginning and at the end of sessions, using the paired t test (p<0.05) and for cortisol levels in saliva samples at home, after the beginning and at the end of sessions, using repeated-measures ANOVA and Tukey’s test (p<0.05). Results: During expression of uncooperative behavior in preventive dental care sessions the salivary cortisol level was significantly higher (0.65 ± 0.25 μg/dL) compared with expression of collaborative behavior (0.24 ± 0.10 μg/dL). Conclusions: It is possible to conclude that, even under preventive intervention, the stress must be controlled in order to reduce dental anxiety and fear.

Self-affirmation before exposure to health communications promotes intentions and health behavior change by increasing anticipated regret

Health-risk information can elicit negative emotions like anticipated regret that may positively affect health persuasion. The beneficial impact of such emotions is undermined when target audiences respond defensively to the threatening information. We tested whether self-affirming (reflecting on cherished attributes) before message exposure can be used as strategy to enhance the experience of anticipated regret. Women were self-affirmed or not before exposure to a message promoting fruit and vegetable consumption. Self-affirmation increased anticipated regret and intentions reported following message exposure and consumption in the week after the intervention; regret mediated the affirmation effect on intentions. Moreover, results suggest that anticipated regret and intentions are serial mediators linking self-affirmation and behavior. By demonstrating the mediating role of anticipated regret, we provide insights into how self-affirmation may promote healthy intentions and behavior following health message exposure. Self-affirmation techniques could thus potentially be used to increase the effectiveness of health communication efforts.

Atlantic salmon in regulated rivers : Migration, dam passage, and fish behavior

Hydropower dams block migration routes and disrupt longitudinal connectivity in rivers, thereby posing a threat to migratory fish species. Various fish passage solutions have been implemented to improve connectivity with varying success. A well-functioning passage solution must ensure safe and timely passage routes that are used by a substantial portion of the migrating fish. In this thesis, I report the results from telemetry studies where the behavior and survival of migrating Atlantic salmon spawners, post-spawners and smolts have been evaluated in relation to hydropower dam passage. I evaluate downstream passage performance at dams with no passage solutions in the River Klarälven, and with simple passage solutions in in the Winooski River. In the River Ätran, I study both upstream- and downstream passage performance at a dam with sophisticated passage solutions based on the best available technology. In addition, I have studied the survival and behavior of post-spawners and hatchery-released smolts. A substantial portion of the spawners survived spawning and initiated downstream migration. Most males migrated downstream in autumn following spawning, whereas females tended to stay in the river until spring. For hatchery-reared smolts, early release was associated with faster initiation of migration and higher survival compared to late release. Multiple dam passage resulted in high mortality for both smolts and kelts. For smolts, dam passage, even with simple passage solutions, was associated with substantial delay and mortality. High spill levels were linked to high survival and short delay for downstream migrating salmon. The best available passage solution, which consisted of a nature-like fishway and a low sloping intake rack to guide fish to a bypass, resulted in rapid passage of a large portion of the adult migrants.

The EU landing obligation and European small-scale fisheries: What are the odds for success?

A landing obligation was formally implemented in the European Union (EU) for the first time, as part of the recent reform of the EU Common Fisheries Policy (CFP). Given the reasonable success of the landing obligation in some countries such as the Faroe Islands, Iceland and Norway, this policy is seen as a viable approach to tackle the long-recognized discarding problem in EU waters. However, there has been some debate on whether there is sufficient evidence to support the feasibility of such a measure in the EU-CFP. The EU landing obligation will implicitly include all small-scale fisheries (SSF) provided the species captured are subject to catch limits or minimum sizes (in the case of the Mediterranean). SSF were included irrespective of the fact that the discarding problem in the EU has been historically associated with medium- to large-scale fleets (in particular largely mixed species trawl fisheries). Additionally, past experiences with a discard ban policy are still limited to specific countries and/or specific fisheries. This paper examined the appropriateness and feasibility of the recently implemented EU landing obligation in SSF. The effects in the long-term are unpredictable, but available evidence suggests that in the short to medium-term a landing obligation is likely to bring more negative social, economic and ecological impacts than benefits. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Civil conflict and voting behavior : evidence from Colombia

¿Cuáles son los efectos de la guerra sobre el comportamiento político? Colombia es un caso interesante en el que el conflicto y las elecciones coexisten y los grupos armados ilegales intencionalmente afectan los resultados electorales. Sin embargo, los grupos usan diferentes estrategias para alterar estos resultados. Este artículo argumenta que los efectos diferenciales de la violencia sobre los resultados electorales son el resultado de estrategias deliberadas de los grupos ilegales, que a su turno, son consecuencia de las condiciones militares que difieren entre ellos. Usando datos panel de las elecciones al Senado de 1994 a 2006 y una aproximación por variables instrumentales para resolver posibles problemas de endogenidad, este artículo muestra que la violencia guerrillera disminuye la participación electoral, mientras que la violencia paramilitar no tiene ningún efecto sobre la participación pero reduce la competencia electoral y beneficia a nuevos partidos no-tradicionales. Esto es consistente con la hipótesis de que la estrategia de la guerrilla es sabotear las elecciones, mientras que los paramiltares establecen alianzas con ciertos candidatos.

Essays in Vertical Agreements and Consumer Behavior

This thesis collects three independent essays and a literature review. Two of them relate to vertical agreements. The first essay explores a retailer's choice in allocating control rights over the decision of retail prices. Results show that retailers adopt a hybrid configuration as a middle ground between two extremes, where pricing decisions are delegated, for all products, either to retailer or manufacturers. The second essay investigates the make-it-or-license-it choice of a brand owner under the risk of moral hazard when licensing the extension product to a third party. Brand licensing emerges as an equilibrium choice under brand dilution (respectively, enhancement) when the consumer perceives a large (small) distance between the extension product and parent brand. The third essay explores the issue of rating bubbles within online feedback systems by means of a field experiment. The analysis found the presence of positive social influence bias, in that high ratings affect the individual rating behavior in a significant way. The last paper is accompanied by a thorough and deep review of the literature about the consequences of online user ratings on product sales/performance (economic dimension) and product adoption/rating behavior (behavioral dimension). The topic is increasingly investigated by academic researchers and industry professionals alike. This overview presents established results and insights as issues for future research.

Optimization of an innovative T6 heat treatment for the AlSi10Mg alloy processed by Laser-based Powder Bed Fusion: effect on microstructure, mechanical properties, and tribological behavior

Laser-based Powder Bed Fusion (L-PBF) technology is one of the most commonly used metal Additive Manufacturing (AM) techniques to produce highly customized and value-added parts. The AlSi10Mg alloy has received more attention in the L-PBF process due to its good printability, high strength/weight ratio, corrosion resistance, and relatively low cost. However, a deep understanding of the effect of heat treatments on this alloy's metastable microstructure is still required for developing tailored heat treatments for the L-PBF AlSi10Mg alloy to overcome the limits of the as-built condition. Several authors have already investigated the effects of conventional heat treatment on the microstructure and mechanical behavior of the L-PBF AlSi10Mg alloy but often overlooked the peculiarities of the starting supersatured and ultrafine microstructure induced by rapid solidification. For this reason, the effects of innovative T6 heat treatment (T6R) on the microstructure and mechanical behavior of the L-PBF AlSi10Mg alloy were assessed. The short solution soaking time (10 min) and the relatively low temperature (510 °C) reduced the typical porosity growth at high temperatures and led to a homogeneous distribution of fine globular Si particles in the Al matrix. In addition, it increased the amount of Mg and Si in the solid solution available for precipitation hardening during the aging step. The mechanical (at room temperature and 200 °C) and tribological properties of the T6R alloy were evaluated and compared with other solutions, especially with an optimized direct-aged alloy (T5 alloy). Results showed that the innovative T6R alloy exhibits the best mechanical trade-off between strength and ductility, the highest fatigue strength among the analyzed conditions, and interesting tribological behavior. Furthermore, the high-temperature mechanical performances of the heat-treated L-PBF AlSi10Mg alloy make it suitable for structural components operating in mild service conditions at 200 °C.

Temperamento e comportamento materno-filial de ovinos das raças Corriedale e Ideal e sua relação com a sobrevivência dos cordeiros

O experimento foi conduzido na Estação Experimental da Embrapa, Bagé, Rio Grande do Sul, entre março de 2005 e fevereiro de 2006. O objetivo foi avaliar o comportamento materno-filial e o temperamento de ovelhas e cordeiros e relacioná-los com a sobrevivência dos cordeiros. Foram utilizadas 47 ovelhas da raça Corriedale, com peso médio de 52,1kg, e 45 ovelhas da raça Ideal, com peso médio de 49,5kg, em um delineamento inteiramente casualizado. O temperamento foi avaliado por meio dos testes: escore de comportamento materno (ECM), tempo de fuga, tipo de marcha e distância de fuga. As ovelhas da raça Corriedale apresentaram maiores valores no teste tipo de marcha que as ovelhas da raça Ideal. Os cordeiros da raça Corriedale eram os mais pesados e tinham maior índice de sobrevivência, quando comparados com os da raça Ideal. A raça não afetou o escore de comportamento materno. Ovelhas reativas (ECM=1), que fogem e não retornam aos seus cordeiros, se isolaram menos do rebanho antes do parto, protegeram menos suas crias, desmamaram-nas mais cedo e tiveram menor peso em relação às não-reativas. A reatividade das ovelhas prejudicou o cuidado materno com os cordeiros e essa característica deve ser considerada pelo setor produtivo.

Adaptação de bovinos ao confinamento: avaliação do temperamento e dos comportamentos social e alimentar

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)