Dependency of military capabilities on technological development

Our goal is to get better understanding of different kind of dependencies behind the high-level capability areas. The models are suitable for investigating present state capabilities or future developments of capabilities in the context of technology forecasting. Three levels are necessary for a model describing effects of technologies on military capabilities. These levels are capability areas, systems and technologies. The contribution of this paper is to present one possible model for interdependencies between technologies. Modelling interdependencies between technologies is the last building block in constructing a quantitative model for technological forecasting including necessary levels of abstraction. This study supplements our previous research and as a result we present a model for the whole process of capability modelling. As in our earlier studies, capability is defined as the probability of a successful task or operation or proper functioning of a system. In order to obtain numerical data to demonstrate our model, we conducted a questionnaire to a group of defence technology researchers where interdependencies between seven representative technologies were inquired. Because of a small number of participants in questionnaires and general uncertainties concerning subjective evaluations, only rough conclusions can be made from the numerical results

Climate change and global responsibility - the role of energy consumption, GDP and CO2 emissions

Climate change is one of the biggest challenges faced by this generation. Despite being the single most important environmental challenge facing the planet and despite over two decades of international climate negotiations, global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions continue to rise. By the middle of this century, GHGs must be reduced by as much as 40-70% if dangerous climate change is to be avoided. In the Kyoto Protocol no quantitative emission limitation and reduction commitments were placed on the developing countries. For the planning of the future commitments period and possible participation of developing countries, information of the functioning of the energy systems, CO2 emissions development in different sectors, energy use and technological development in developing countries is essential. In addition to the per capita emissions, the efficiency of the energy system in relation to GHG emissions is crucial for the decision of future long-term burden sharing between countries. Country’s future development of CO2 emissions can be defined by the estimated CO2 intensity of the future and the estimated GDP growth. The changes in CO2 intensity depend on several factors, but generally developed countries’ intensity has been increasing in the industrialization phase and decreasing when their economy shifts more towards the system dominated by the service sector. The level of the CO2 intensity depends by a large extent on the production structure and the energy sources that are used. Currently one of the most urgent issues regarding global climate change is to decide the future of the Kyoto Protocol. Negotiations on this topic have already been initiated, with the aim of being finalised by the 2015. This thesis provides insights into the various approaches that can be used to characterise the concept of comparable efforts for developing countries in a future international climate agreement. The thesis examines the post-Kyoto burden sharing questions for developing countries using the contraction and convergence model, which is one approach that has been proposed to allocate commitments regarding future GHG emissions mitigation. This new approach is a practical tool for the evaluation of the Kyoto climate policy process and global climate change negotiations from the perspective of the developing countries.

Hurry up and slow down : education to close the ingenuity gap /

To explore the idea of education to close the ingenuity gap I use Thomas Homer-Dixon's work to define ingenuity. The notion that the supply of ingenuity to solve our technical and social problems is not keeping pace with the ingenuity required to solve those problems is called the ingenuity gap. Man-made technological developments are increasing the density, intensity, and pace of globalisation. People must reorganise decision-making organisations and problem-solving methods to pragmatically combat the growing ingenuity gap. John Dewey's work illustrates the fundamental attitudes for the thinking and judgment associated with educating for ingenuity. Howard Gardner's idea that truth, beauty, and morality ought to form the core values and tenets of the philosophy of educating for ingenuity is integral to this thesis. The act of teaching facilitates the invitation to the communication necessary to foster ingenuity. John Novak-discusses the five relationships of educational leadership that enhance an environment of ingenuity. The International Baccalaureate (IB) is an existing model of global education, one that defines some of the school experiences and academic development of core values of educating for ingenuity. Expanding upon the structure of the IB and other research within this thesis, I speculate upon what my school, where educating for ingenuity so as to close the ingenuity gap is the goal, would be like.

A narrative journey of teacher reflexivity and authenticity in technological environments /

This qualitative narrative inquiry was driven by my desire to further explore my personal discovery that my utilization of educational technologies in teaching and learning environments seemed to heighten a sense of creativity, which in turn increased reflective practice and authenticity in my teaching. A narrative inquiry approach was used as it offered the opportunity to uncover the deeper meanings of authenticity and reflection as participants' personal experiences were coconstructed and reconstructed in relationship with me and in relationship to a social milieu. To gain further insight into this potential phenomenon, I engaged in 2 conversational interviews with 2 other teachers from an Ontario College in a large urban centre who have utilized educational technologies in their teaching and learning communities and I maintained a research journal, constructed during the interview process, to record my own emerging narrative accounts, reflections, insights and further questions. The field texts consisted of transcriptions of the interviews and my reflective journal. Research texts were developed as field texts were listened to multiple times and texts were examined for meanings and themes. The educational technologies that both women focused on in the interview were digital video of children as they play, learn and develop and the use of an audible teacher voice in online courses. The invitation given to students to explore and discover meaning in videos of children as they watched them with the teacher seemed to be a catalyst for authenticity and a sense of synergy in the classroom. The power of the audible teacher voice came through as an essential component in online learning environments to offer students a sense of humanness and connection with the teacher. Relationships in both online and face to face classrooms emerged as a necessary and central component to all teaching and learning communities. The theme of paradox also emerged as participants recognized that educational technologies can be used in ways that enhance creativity, authenticity, reflection and relationships or in ways that hinder these qualities in the teaching and learning community. Knowledge of the common experiences of college educators who utilize educational technologies, specifically digital video of children to educate early childhood educators, might give meaning and insight to inform the practice of other teachers who seek authentic, reflexive practice in the classroom and in on line environments.

Subjective, behavioural and electrophysiological measurements of the time-course and intensity of sleep inertia after a full night of sleep /

Several recent studies have described the period of impaired alertness and performance known as sleep inertia that occurs upon awakening from a full night of sleep. They report that sleep inertia dissipates in a saturating exponential manner, the exact time course being task dependent, but generally persisting for one to two hours. A number of factors, including sleep architecture, sleep depth and circadian variables are also thought to affect the duration and intensity. The present study sought to replicate their findings for subjective alertness and reaction time and also to examine electrophysiological changes through the use of event-related potentials (ERPs). Secondly, several sleep parameters were examined for potential effects on the initial intensity of sleep inertia. Ten participants spent two consecutive nights and subsequent mornings in the sleep lab. Sleep architecture was recorded for a fiiU nocturnal episode of sleep based on participants' habitual sleep patterns. Subjective alertness and performance was measured for a 90-minute period after awakening. Alertness was measured every five minutes using the Stanford Sleepiness Scale (SSS) and a visual analogue scale (VAS) of sleepiness. An auditory tone also served as the target stimulus for an oddball task designed to examine the NlOO and P300 components ofthe ERP waveform. The five-minute oddball task was presented at 15-minute intervals over the initial 90-minutes after awakening to obtain six measures of average RT and amplitude and latency for NlOO and P300. Standard polysomnographic recording were used to obtain digital EEG and describe the night of sleep. Power spectral analyses (FFT) were used to calculate slow wave activity (SWA) as a measure of sleep depth for the whole night, 90-minutes before awakening and five minutes before awakening.

Bone markers and cytokines in response to low-impact, high-intensity exercise

A low-impact, high-intensity interval exercise (HIE) bout was used to determine whether an association exists between cytokines and bone turnover markers following an acute bout of exercise. Twenty-three recreationally active males (21.8±2.4yr) performed a single HIE bout on a cycle ergometer at 90% relative intensity. Venous blood samples were collected prior to exercise, 5-minutes, 1-hour, and 24-hours post-exercise, and were analyzed for serum levels of pro-inflammatory (IL-6, IL-1α, IL-1β, and TNF-α) and anti- inflammatory cytokines (IL-10) and markers of bone formation (BAP, OPG) and resorption (NTX, RANKL). Significant effects were observed with all bone markers, especially 5-minutes post-exercise with BAP, OPG, and RANKL increasing from baseline (p<0.05). Significant effects were also observed for IL-1α, IL-1β, IL-6, and TNF-α (p<0.00, p=0.04, p=0.03, p<0.00). In addition, post-exercise changes in NTX, BAP, and OPG were significantly correlated pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines, suggesting that an interaction exists between the immune and skeletal response to exercise.

The role of investment specific technological shocks in explaining macroeconomics fluctuations.

Rapport de recherche

How to measure the intensity of competition : the mark-up estates for turkish manufacturing industries.

Rapport de recherche

Dangerous identities : the impact of fundamental ethnic identities on conflict intensity

Bien que plusieurs chercheurs aient analysé l'influence de divers facteurs sur l'intensité des conflits ethniques, il a été constaté que l'identité ethnique elle-même n'a jamais été correctement examinée. Ce phénomène est essentiellement dû à ce que nous croyons être une classification inexacte des groupes ethniques. Nous proposons une nouvelle méthode de catégorisation pour les identités ethniques présentant que la religion, la langue et la race forment les distinctions les plus précises et nous les classifions alors comme les identités ethniques fondamentales. Subséquemment, une étude comparative de ces identités ethniques a été entreprise avec l'utilisation de deux bases de données différentes: l’ensemble de données Battle Deaths qui est associé avec la base de données sur les conflits armés de l’UCDP/PRIO et la base de données Minorities at Risk. Les résultats, dans leur ensemble, ont indiqué que les identités ethniques avec des attachements émotifs plus intenses mènent à une plus grande intensité de conflit. Les conflits ethniques fondamentaux ont démontré une tendance à mener à des conflits plus intenses que les conflits ethniques non-fondamentaux. De plus, la similitude parmi les groupes ethniques tend à affaiblir l'intensité des conflits. En outre, l'étude a également conclu que plus le nombre d'identités ethnique fondamentales impliquées dans un conflit est grand, plus le conflit sera intense. Cependant, les résultats ne pouvaient pas déterminer une différence conséquente parmi l’influence relative des trois identités ethniques fondamentales.