Accuracy in estimating

Several methods of estimating the costs or price of construction projects are now available for use in the construction industry. It is difficult due to the conservative approach of estimators and quantity surveyors, and the fact that the industry is undergoing one of its deepest recessions this century, to implement any changes in these processes. Several methods have been tried and tested and probably discarded forever, whereas other methods are still in their infancy. There is also a movement towards greater use of the computer, whichever method seems to be adopted. An important consideration with any method of estimating is the accuracy by which costs can be calculated. Any improvement in this consideration will be welcomed by a11 parties, because existing methods are poor when measured by this criteria. Estimating, particularly by contractors, has always carried some mystic, and many of the processes discussed both in the classroom and in practice are little more than fallacy when properly investigated. What makes an estimator or quantity surveyor good at forecasting the right price? To what extent does human behaviour influence or have a part to play? These and some of the other aspects of effective estimating are now examined in more detail.

Human factors in estimating

It is commonly held that the ability of the estimator to apply professional skill and judgement is an important factor in the production of an accurate cost estimate. This chapter identifies these abilities and attributes of the individual estimator that affects estimating accuracy. These human factors are examined under the headings of the role of the estimators, skills of the estimator, characteristics of the estimator, interpretation of data, and the influence of expertise.

Estimating the effects of ambient temperature on mortality : methodological challenges and proposed solutions

The health impacts of exposure to ambient temperature have been drawing increasing attention from the environmental health research community, government, society, industries, and the public. Case-crossover and time series models are most commonly used to examine the effects of ambient temperature on mortality. However, some key methodological issues remain to be addressed. For example, few studies have used spatiotemporal models to assess the effects of spatial temperatures on mortality. Few studies have used a case-crossover design to examine the delayed (distributed lag) and non-linear relationship between temperature and mortality. Also, little evidence is available on the effects of temperature changes on mortality, and on differences in heat-related mortality over time. This thesis aimed to address the following research questions: 1. How to combine case-crossover design and distributed lag non-linear models? 2. Is there any significant difference in effect estimates between time series and spatiotemporal models? 3. How to assess the effects of temperature changes between neighbouring days on mortality? 4. Is there any change in temperature effects on mortality over time? To combine the case-crossover design and distributed lag non-linear model, datasets including deaths, and weather conditions (minimum temperature, mean temperature, maximum temperature, and relative humidity), and air pollution were acquired from Tianjin China, for the years 2005 to 2007. I demonstrated how to combine the case-crossover design with a distributed lag non-linear model. This allows the case-crossover design to estimate the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature whilst controlling for seasonality. There was consistent U-shaped relationship between temperature and mortality. Cold effects were delayed by 3 days, and persisted for 10 days. Hot effects were acute and lasted for three days, and were followed by mortality displacement for non-accidental, cardiopulmonary, and cardiovascular deaths. Mean temperature was a better predictor of mortality (based on model fit) than maximum or minimum temperature. It is still unclear whether spatiotemporal models using spatial temperature exposure produce better estimates of mortality risk compared with time series models that use a single site’s temperature or averaged temperature from a network of sites. Daily mortality data were obtained from 163 locations across Brisbane city, Australia from 2000 to 2004. Ordinary kriging was used to interpolate spatial temperatures across the city based on 19 monitoring sites. A spatiotemporal model was used to examine the impact of spatial temperature on mortality. A time series model was used to assess the effects of single site’s temperature, and averaged temperature from 3 monitoring sites on mortality. Squared Pearson scaled residuals were used to check the model fit. The results of this study show that even though spatiotemporal models gave a better model fit than time series models, spatiotemporal and time series models gave similar effect estimates. Time series analyses using temperature recorded from a single monitoring site or average temperature of multiple sites were equally good at estimating the association between temperature and mortality as compared with a spatiotemporal model. A time series Poisson regression model was used to estimate the association between temperature change and mortality in summer in Brisbane, Australia during 1996–2004 and Los Angeles, United States during 1987–2000. Temperature change was calculated by the current day's mean temperature minus the previous day's mean. In Brisbane, a drop of more than 3 �C in temperature between days was associated with relative risks (RRs) of 1.16 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.02, 1.31) for non-external mortality (NEM), 1.19 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.41) for NEM in females, and 1.44 (95% CI: 1.10, 1.89) for NEM aged 65.74 years. An increase of more than 3 �C was associated with RRs of 1.35 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.77) for cardiovascular mortality and 1.67 (95% CI: 1.15, 2.43) for people aged < 65 years. In Los Angeles, only a drop of more than 3 �C was significantly associated with RRs of 1.13 (95% CI: 1.05, 1.22) for total NEM, 1.25 (95% CI: 1.13, 1.39) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1.25 (95% CI: 1.14, 1.39) for people aged . 75 years. In both cities, there were joint effects of temperature change and mean temperature on NEM. A change in temperature of more than 3 �C, whether positive or negative, has an adverse impact on mortality even after controlling for mean temperature. I examined the variation in the effects of high temperatures on elderly mortality (age . 75 years) by year, city and region for 83 large US cities between 1987 and 2000. High temperature days were defined as two or more consecutive days with temperatures above the 90th percentile for each city during each warm season (May 1 to September 30). The mortality risk for high temperatures was decomposed into: a "main effect" due to high temperatures using a distributed lag non-linear function, and an "added effect" due to consecutive high temperature days. I pooled yearly effects across regions and overall effects at both regional and national levels. The effects of high temperature (both main and added effects) on elderly mortality varied greatly by year, city and region. The years with higher heat-related mortality were often followed by those with relatively lower mortality. Understanding this variability in the effects of high temperatures is important for the development of heat-warning systems. In conclusion, this thesis makes contribution in several aspects. Case-crossover design was combined with distribute lag non-linear model to assess the effects of temperature on mortality in Tianjin. This makes the case-crossover design flexibly estimate the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature. Both extreme cold and high temperatures increased the risk of mortality in Tianjin. Time series model using single site’s temperature or averaged temperature from some sites can be used to examine the effects of temperature on mortality. Temperature change (no matter significant temperature drop or great temperature increase) increases the risk of mortality. The high temperature effect on mortality is highly variable from year to year.

Estimating health related costs and savings from balcony acoustic design for road traffic noise

A multi-faceted study is conducted with the objective of estimating the potential fiscal savings in annoyance and sleep disturbance related health costs due to providing improved building acoustic design standards. This study uses balcony acoustic treatments in response to road traffic noise as an example. The study area is the State of Queensland in Australia, where regional road traffic noise mapping data is used in conjunction with standard dose–response curves to estimate the population exposure levels. The background and the importance of using the selected road traffic noise indicators are discussed. In order to achieve the objective, correlations between the mapping indicator (LA10 (18 hour)) and the dose response curve indicators (Lden and Lnight) are established via analysis on a large database of road traffic noise measurement data. The existing noise exposure of the study area is used to estimate the fiscal reductions in health related costs through the application of simple estimations of costs per person per year per degree of annoyance or sleep disturbance. The results demonstrate that balcony acoustic treatments may provide a significant benefit towards reducing the health related costs of road traffic noise in a community.

A quasi-maximum likelihood method for estimating the parameters of multivariate diffusions

A quasi-maximum likelihood procedure for estimating the parameters of multi-dimensional diffusions is developed in which the transitional density is a multivariate Gaussian density with first and second moments approximating the true moments of the unknown density. For affine drift and diffusion functions, the moments are exactly those of the true transitional density and for nonlinear drift and diffusion functions the approximation is extremely good and is as effective as alternative methods based on likelihood approximations. The estimation procedure generalises to models with latent factors. A conditioning procedure is developed that allows parameter estimation in the absence of proxies.

An examination of tax-deductible donations made by individual Australian taxpayers in 2010-11

Each year, The Australian Centre for Philanthropy and Nonprofit Studies (CPNS) at Queensland University of Technology (QUT) collects and analyses statistics on the amount and extent of tax-deductible donations made and claimed by Australians in their individual income tax returns to deductible gift recipients (DGRs). The information presented below is based on the amount and type of tax-deductible donations made and claimed by Australian individual taxpayers to DGRs for the period 1 July 2010 to 30 June 2011. This information has been extracted mainly from the Australian Taxation Office's (ATO) publication Taxation Statistics 2010-11. The 2010-11 report is the latest report that has been made publicly available. It represents information in tax returns for the 2010-11 year processed by the ATO as at 31 October 2012.

Tax Deductible Giving in 2010 - 2011:ACPNS Current Issues Information Sheet 2013/1

Each year The Australian Centre for Philanthropy and Nonprofit Studies (ACPNS) at QUT analyses statistics on tax-deductible donations made by Australians in their individual income tax returns to Deductible Gift Recipients (DGRs). The information presented below is based on the amount and type of tax-deductible donations made by Australian taxpayers to DGRs for the period 1 July 2010 to 30 June 2011 extracted from the Australian Taxation Office's publication Taxation Statistics 2010-2011.1

Tax and equality in 1972: The case of Lodge v FCT

This paper is part of a larger project described at http://www.law.uq.edu.au/australian-feminist-judgments-project as follows: This project draws its inspiration from two significant recent developments in law and feminist scholarship. The first has been the emergence in Canada and the UK of feminist judgment-writing projects, in which feminist academics, lawyers and activists have written alternative judgments in a series of legal cases, imagining the different decision that might have been made by a feminist judge hearing the case. The second has been the incremental shift in recent years in the number of women judges and Magistrates presiding in courts and tribunals throughout Australia. As part of this project, a group of scholars will write alternative feminist judgments. This paper is one of the alternative feminist judgements. The case used for this discussion is Lodge v Federal Commissioner of Tax [1972] HCA 49. In that case, a woman, earning income by way of commission in her occupation as a law costs clerk, which she carried out at her home, claimed to deduct from her assessable income child care fees that enabled her to devote time and attention to her work. The High Court held that no right to a deduction had arisen. It found that, although the purpose of the expenditure was for gaining assessable income, it did not take place in, or in the course of, preparing bills of cost. Further, the expenditure was of a ‘private or domestic’ nature. This seminal taxation decision, which prevents deductions for childcare, has broad financial ramifications for workers in the home and those with childcare responsibilities. It designates childcare duties as ‘private’, notwithstanding the need for these in order, particularly for women, to work in the public sphere.

The CGT small business concessions : recent evidence from the perspective of the tax practitioner

On 21 September 1999 Division 152 was inserted into the Income Tax Assessment Act (1997) (ITAA 1997). It was subsequently subject to amendments in 2006. Division 152 contains the small business CGT concessions, which enables eligible small business taxpayers to reduce the amount of tax payable on capital gains arising from certain CGT events (including the sale of the small business itself) that occur after 11:45 am on 21 September 1999. One of the stated principal objectives of the legislation was to provide a concessionary regime for small business owners who did not have the same ability to access the concessionary superannuation regime (particularly the superannuation guarantee charge) generally available to employees. The then Federal Treasurer, Mr Peter Costello, when announcing the introduction of the concessions, specifically stated that the object of Div 152 was to provide “small business people with access to funds for retirement or expansion”. The purpose of this project is to: one, assess the extent to which small business taxpayers understand the CGT small business concessions, particularly when considering sale of their business; two, determine which of the four small business CGT concessions are being adopted and/or recommended by tax advisors to clients; and three, determine whether the recent superannuation changes announced by the Federal Government in relation to the capping of the concessional superannuation thresholds have had an impact on the use of the small business retirement concession. It is anticipated that the results of this study will reveal that that small business owners are reliant on their tax advisors to explain the operation of Division 152. It is plausible that give the complexity of the CGT concessions, most small business owners are completely unaware of the four small business CGT concessions contained in Division 152 and do not understand how these concessions apply. Our study will also reveal the extent to which each CGT small business concession has been adopted (and reasons why). In particular, emphasis will be placed on the adoption of the small business retirement concession contained in Subdivision 152-D (and specific reasons for its adoption). This study also seeks to understand whether the recent (and impending) changes to the concessional superannuation cap has resulted in the retirement concession being more widely adopted (or recommended) by tax advisors. We would expect that the results of our study to confirm this to be the case, particularly coupled with the recent economic downturn, which has led to lower superannuation fund balances. By providing accounting firms with this information, small business owners will benefit from the information, becoming better placed to be long-term self funded retirees, providing not only financial benefits to the individuals and the country, but a significant increase in social self-assurance by these members of the community.

International tax and the Australian wine industry: Is your client’s product destined to sail the seven seas?

The export market for Australian wine continues to grow at a rapid rate, with imported wines also playing a role in market share in sales in Australia. It is estimated that over 60 per cent of all Australian wine is exported, while 12 per cent of wine consumed in Australia has overseas origins. In addition to understanding the size and direction (import or export) of wines, the foreign locales also play an important role in any tax considerations. While the export market for Australian produced alcohol continues to grow, it is into the Asian market that the most significant inroads are occurring. Sales into China of bottled wine over $7.50 per litre recently overtook the volume sold our traditional partners of the United States and Canada. It is becoming easier for even small to medium sized businesses to export their services or products overseas. However, it is vital for those businesses to understand the tax rules applying to any international transactions. Specifically, one of the first tax regimes that importers and exporters need to understand once they decide to establish a presence overseas is transfer pricing. These are the rules that govern the cross-border prices of goods, services and other transactions entered into between related parties. This paper is Part 2 of the seminar presented on transfer pricing and international tax issues which are particularly relevant to the wine industry. The predominant focus of Part 2 is to discuss four key areas likely to affect international expansion. First, the use of the available transfer pricing methodologies for international related party transactions is discussed. Second, the affects that double tax agreements will have on taking a business offshore are considered. Third, the risks associated with aggressive tax planning through tax information exchange agreements is reviewed. Finally, the paper predicts future ‘trip-wires’ and areas to ‘watch out for’ for practitioners dealing with clients operating in the international arena.

Fundamental Tax Legislation 2013

Fundamental Tax Legislation 2013 contains the essential provisions from the primary legislation that affects Australia’s taxation system. Updated and expanded for 2013, this volume is an indispensable reference for undergraduate and postgraduate students of taxation. New in 2013 is a revised Year in Review section, which summarises the legislative developments in taxation over the previous 12 months, a listing of the passage of tax-related legislation during the last year and the inclusion of reference statistics (such as CPI quarterly figures and individual tax rates for residents and non-residents). Also, new for 2013 is a Tax Rates and Tables section which contains an accessible summary of the main tax rates and tables that students will need to refer to for their tax studies.

Australian Tax Analysis : Cases, Commentary, Commercial Applications and Questions [9th Ed.]

Now in its ninth edition, Australian Tax Analysis: Cases, Commentary, Commercial Applications and Questions has a proven track record as a high-level work for students of taxation law written by a team of authors with many years experience. Taking into account the fact that the volume of material needed to be processed by today’s taxation student can be overwhelming, the well-chosen extracts and thought-provoking commentary in Australian Tax Analysis, 9th edition, provide readers with the depth of knowledge, and reasoning and analytical skills which will be required of them as practitioners. In addition to the carefully selected case extracts and the helpful commentary, each chapter is supplemented by engaging practice questions involving problem solving, commercial decision-making, legal analysis and quantitative application. All these elements combined make Australian Tax Analysis an invaluable aid to the understanding of a subject which can be both technical and complex.

Symone Anstis : the tax advocate for higher education students

Many who have taken a tax course in the last few years will be aware of the plight of Ms Symone Anstis. Her story is a simple one. The year is 2006 and Ms Anstis, an undergraduate student is undertaking a teaching degree at the Australian Catholic University. To support herself she works at Katies earning $14,946, and receives Youth Allowance of $3,622. In her tax return for that year Ms Anstis claims $920 for ‘self-education expenses’ comprising travel, supplies, student administration fees, depreciation on her computer, textbooks and stationery. These expenses totalling $1,170 are correctly reduced by the non-deductible first $250, per s 82A of the Income Tax Assessment Act (1997) (Cth) (ITAA97). Ms Anstis claims a deduction for ‘self-education expenses’ on the basis that a condition of receiving Youth Allowance is the enrolment and satisfactory progress in an acceptable course of study. Generally, a deduction is allowed where a loss or outgoing is incurred in gaining or producing assessable income and that loss or outgoing is not of a private or domestic nature. Ms Anstis claims the expenses are incurred to meet the requirements of maintaining Youth Allowance so the nexus is satisfied. On assessment, the Commissioner of Taxation disallows the deduction claimed on the basis that ‘self-education expenses’ are only deductible if they have a relevant connection to the taxpayer’s current income-earning activities or they are likely to lead to an increase in a taxpayer’s income from his or her current income-earning activities in the future.

Double tax agreements and the international allocation of business income in Australia

Increasingly, the effectiveness of the present system of taxation of international businesses is being questioned. The problem associated with the taxation of such businesses is twofold. A system of international taxation must be a fair and equitable system, distributing profits between the relevant jurisdictions and, in doing so, avoiding double taxation. At the same time, the prevention of fiscal evasion must be secured. In an attempt to achieve a fair and equitable system Australia adopts unilateral, bilateral and multilateral measures to avoid double taxation and restrict the avoidance of tax. The first step in ascertaining the international allocation of business income is to consider the taxation of business income according to domestic law, that is, the unilateral measures. The treatment of international business income under the Australian domestic law, that is, the Income Tax Assessment Act 1936 (Cth) and Income Tax Assessment Act 1997 (Cth), will depend on two concepts, first, whether the taxpayer is a resident of Australia and secondly, whether the income is sourced in Australia. After the taxation of business profits has been determined according to domestic law it is necessary to consider the applicability of the bilateral measures, that is, the Double Tax Agreements (DTAs) to which Australia is a party, as the DTAs will override the domestic law where there is any conflict. Australia is a party to 40 DTAs with another seven presently being negotiated. The preamble to Australia's DTAs provides that the purpose of such agreements is 'to conclude an Agreement for the avoidance of double taxation and the prevention of fiscal evasion with respect to taxes on income'. Both purposes, for different reasons, are equally important. It has been said that: The taxpayer hopes the treaty will prevent the double taxation of his income; the tax gatherer hopes the treaty will prevent fiscal evasion; and the politician just hopes. The first purpose, the avoidance of double taxation, is achieved through the provision of rules whereby the Contracting States agree to the classification of income and the allocation of that income to a particular State. In this sense DTAs do not allocate jurisdiction to tax but rather provide an arrangement whereby the States agree to restrict their substantive law. The restriction is either through the non-taxing of the income or via the provision of a tax credit.

Count-min sketches for estimating password frequency within Hamming distance two

The count-min sketch is a useful data structure for recording and estimating the frequency of string occurrences, such as passwords, in sub-linear space with high accuracy. However, it cannot be used to draw conclusions on groups of strings that are similar, for example close in Hamming distance. This paper introduces a variant of the count-min sketch which allows for estimating counts within a specified Hamming distance of the queried string. This variant can be used to prevent users from choosing popular passwords, like the original sketch, but it also allows for a more efficient method of analysing password statistics.