Polarization of forecast densities : a new approach to time series classification

Time series classification has been extensively explored in many fields of study. Most methods are based on the historical or current information extracted from data. However, if interest is in a specific future time period, methods that directly relate to forecasts of time series are much more appropriate. An approach to time series classification is proposed based on a polarization measure of forecast densities of time series. By fitting autoregressive models, forecast replicates of each time series are obtained via the bias-corrected bootstrap, and a stationarity correction is considered when necessary. Kernel estimators are then employed to approximate forecast densities, and discrepancies of forecast densities of pairs of time series are estimated by a polarization measure, which evaluates the extent to which two densities overlap. Following the distributional properties of the polarization measure, a discriminant rule and a clustering method are proposed to conduct the supervised and unsupervised classification, respectively. The proposed methodology is applied to both simulated and real data sets, and the results show desirable properties.

Brain decoding based on functional magnetic resonance imaging using machine learning : a comparative study

Brain decoding of functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging data is a pattern analysis task that links brain activity patterns to the experimental conditions. Classifiers predict the neural states from the spatial and temporal pattern of brain activity extracted from multiple voxels in the functional images in a certain period of time. The prediction results offer insight into the nature of neural representations and cognitive mechanisms and the classification accuracy determines our confidence in understanding the relationship between brain activity and stimuli. In this paper, we compared the efficacy of three machine learning algorithms: neural network, support vector machines, and conditional random field to decode the visual stimuli or neural cognitive states from functional Magnetic Resonance data. Leave-one-out cross validation was performed to quantify the generalization accuracy of each algorithm on unseen data. The results indicated support vector machine and conditional random field have comparable performance and the potential of the latter is worthy of further investigation.

Large scale read classification for next generation sequencing

Next Generation Sequencing (NGS) has revolutionised molecular biology, resulting in an explosion of data sets and an increasing role in clinical practice. Such applications necessarily require rapid identification of the organism as a prelude to annotation and further analysis. NGS data consist of a substantial number of short sequence reads, given context through downstream assembly and annotation, a process requiring reads consistent with the assumed species or species group. Highly accurate results have been obtained for restricted sets using SVM classifiers, but such methods are difficult to parallelise and success depends on careful attention to feature selection. This work examines the problem at very large scale, using a mix of synthetic and real data with a view to determining the overall structure of the problem and the effectiveness of parallel ensembles of simpler classifiers (principally random forests) in addressing the challenges of large scale genomics.

Automated diagnosis of Age-related Macular Degeneration using greyscale features from digital fundus images

Age-related Macular Degeneration (AMD) is one of the major causes of vision loss and blindness in ageing population. Currently, there is no cure for AMD, however early detection and subsequent treatment may prevent the severe vision loss or slow the progression of the disease. AMD can be classified into two types: dry and wet AMDs. The people with macular degeneration are mostly affected by dry AMD. Early symptoms of AMD are formation of drusen and yellow pigmentation. These lesions are identified by manual inspection of fundus images by the ophthalmologists. It is a time consuming, tiresome process, and hence an automated diagnosis of AMD screening tool can aid clinicians in their diagnosis significantly. This study proposes an automated dry AMD detection system using various entropies (Shannon, Kapur, Renyi and Yager), Higher Order Spectra (HOS) bispectra features, Fractional Dimension (FD), and Gabor wavelet features extracted from greyscale fundus images. The features are ranked using t-test, Kullback–Lieber Divergence (KLD), Chernoff Bound and Bhattacharyya Distance (CBBD), Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curve-based and Wilcoxon ranking methods in order to select optimum features and classified into normal and AMD classes using Naive Bayes (NB), k-Nearest Neighbour (k-NN), Probabilistic Neural Network (PNN), Decision Tree (DT) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifiers. The performance of the proposed system is evaluated using private (Kasturba Medical Hospital, Manipal, India), Automated Retinal Image Analysis (ARIA) and STructured Analysis of the Retina (STARE) datasets. The proposed system yielded the highest average classification accuracies of 90.19%, 95.07% and 95% with 42, 54 and 38 optimal ranked features using SVM classifier for private, ARIA and STARE datasets respectively. This automated AMD detection system can be used for mass fundus image screening and aid clinicians by making better use of their expertise on selected images that require further examination.

The effect of hip muscle strengthening on pain and disability for individuals with non-specific low back pain : a randomized controlled trial

Introduction Clinical guidelines for the treatment of chronic low back pain suggest the use of supervised exercise. Motor control (MC) based exercise is widely used within clinical practice but its efficacy is equivalent to general exercise therapy. MC exercise targets the trunk musculature. Considering the mechanical links between the hip, pelvis, and lumbar spine, surprisingly little focus has been on investigating the contribution of the hip musculature to lumbopelvic support. The purpose of this study is to compare the efficacy of two exercise programs for the treatment of non-specific low back pain (NSLBP). Methods Eighty individuals aged 18-65 years of age were randomized into two groups to participate in this trial. The primary outcome measures included self-reported pain intensity (0-100mm VAS) and percent disability (Oswestry Disability Index V2). Bilateral measures of hip strength (N/kg) and two dimensional frontal plane mechanics (º) were the secondary outcomes. Outcomes were measured at baseline and following a six-week home based exercise program including weekly sessions of real-time ultrasound imaging. Results Within group comparisons revealed clinically meaningful reductions in pain for both groups. The MC exercise only (N= 40, xˉ =-20.9mm, 95%CI -25.7, -16.1) and the combined MC and hip exercise (N= 40, xˉ = -24.9mm, 95%CI -30.8, -19.0). There was no statistical difference in the change of pain (xˉ =-4.0mm, t= -1.07, p=0.29, 95%CI -11.5, 3.5) or disability (xˉ =-0.3%, t=-0.19, p=0.85, 95%CI -11.5, 3.5) between groups. Conclusion Both exercise programs had similar and positive effects on NSLBP which support the use of the home based exercise programs with weekly supervised visits. However, the addition of specific hip strengthening exercises to a MC based exercise program did not result in significantly greater reductions in pain or disability. Trial Registration NCTO1567566 Funding: Worker’s Compensation Board Alberta Research Grant.

Detection of rain in acoustic recordings of the environment

Environmental monitoring has become increasingly important due to the significant impact of human activities and climate change on biodiversity. Environmental sound sources such as rain and insect vocalizations are a rich and underexploited source of information in environmental audio recordings. This paper is concerned with the classification of rain within acoustic sensor re-cordings. We present the novel application of a set of features for classifying environmental acoustics: acoustic entropy, the acoustic complexity index, spectral cover, and background noise. In order to improve the performance of the rain classification system we automatically classify segments of environmental recordings into the classes of heavy rain or non-rain. A decision tree classifier is experientially compared with other classifiers. The experimental results show that our system is effective in classifying segments of environmental audio recordings with an accuracy of 93% for the binary classification of heavy rain/non-rain.

Enhancing sense of recovery and self-reflectivity in people with schizophrenia : a pilot study of Metacognitive Narrative Psychotherapy

Objective This study investigated the effectiveness of an innovative, manualized psychotherapy aimed at enhancing recovery and self-experience in people with schizophrenia, Metacognitive Narrative Psychotherapy. Design Treatment effects were assessed using a mixed methodology. Data were quantitatively assessed using a single sample, pre- and post-therapy design and qualitatively assessed using a case-study methodology. Methods Eleven patients diagnosed with schizophrenia received Metacognitive Narrative Psychotherapy over the course of 11 to 26 months. Therapists were seven supervised postgraduate psychology students. On average patients attended 49 sessions over the course of therapy. Patients completed interview-based and self-report measures for general and treatment-specific outcomes at pre-, mid-, and post-treatment. Results Quantitative analyses showed that patients significantly improved on the general outcome of subjective recovery, as well as the treatment-specific outcome of self-reflectivity, with medium to large effect sizes. Case-study evidence also showed improvements for some patients in symptom severity, and narrative coherence and complexity. Conclusions These results are consistent with previous case-study evidence and suggest that this manualized version of Metacognitive Narrative Psychotherapy produces general and approach-specific improvements for people with schizophrenia. Replication is needed to ascertain its effectiveness with a larger sample size and within a controlled design.

Towards pose-robust face recognition on video

This thesis investigates face recognition in video under the presence of large pose variations. It proposes a solution that performs simultaneous detection of facial landmarks and head poses across large pose variations, employs discriminative modelling of feature distributions of faces with varying poses, and applies fusion of multiple classifiers to pose-mismatch recognition. Experiments on several benchmark datasets have demonstrated that improved performance is achieved using the proposed solution.

An efficient and robust system for multi-person event detection in real world indoor surveillance scenes

Due to the popularity of security cameras in public places, it is of interest to design an intelligent system that can efficiently detect events automatically. This paper proposes a novel algorithm for multi-person event detection. To ensure greater than real-time performance, features are extracted directly from compressed MPEG video. A novel histogram-based feature descriptor that captures the angles between extracted particle trajectories is proposed, which allows us to capture motion patterns of multi-person events in the video. To alleviate the need for fine-grained annotation, we propose the use of Labelled Latent Dirichlet Allocation, a “weakly supervised” method that allows the use of coarse temporal annotations which are much simpler to obtain. This novel system is able to run at approximately ten times real-time, while preserving state-of-theart detection performance for multi-person events on a 100-hour real-world surveillance dataset (TRECVid SED).

Score-level multibiometric fusion based on Dempster-Shafer theory incorporating uncertainty factors

While existing multi-biometic Dempster-Shafer the- ory fusion approaches have demonstrated promising perfor- mance, they do not model the uncertainty appropriately, sug- gesting that further improvement can be achieved. This research seeks to develop a unified framework for multimodal biometric fusion to take advantage of the uncertainty concept of Dempster- Shafer theory, improving the performance of multi-biometric authentication systems. Modeling uncertainty as a function of uncertainty factors affecting the recognition performance of the biometric systems helps to address the uncertainty of the data and the confidence of the fusion outcome. A weighted combination of quality measures and classifiers performance (Equal Error Rate) are proposed to encode the uncertainty concept to improve the fusion. We also found that quality measures contribute unequally to the recognition performance, thus selecting only significant factors and fusing them with a Dempster-Shafer approach to generate an overall quality score play an important role in the success of uncertainty modeling. The proposed approach achieved a competitive performance (approximate 1% EER) in comparison with other Dempster-Shafer based approaches and other conventional fusion approaches.

Driver licensing experience of Korean Australian novice drivers

Graduated driver licensing has been shown to improve the safety of young drivers but relatively little is known about how well it works for drivers born in countries where the licensing system is less sophisticated. This research used Bronfenbrenner's ecological model to examine the driver licensing experience of Korean Australian young drivers using driver and parent focus groups and an online survey of drivers. Accumulating the required supervised driving was more difficult for international students than those living with parents and differences in road rules (particularly relating to seat belt use) between the countries exerted an important influence on behaviour.

Injury narrative text classification : a preliminary study

Description of a patient's injuries is recorded in narrative text form by hospital emergency departments. For statistical reporting, this text data needs to be mapped to pre-defined codes. Existing research in this field uses the Naïve Bayes probabilistic method to build classifiers for mapping. In this paper, we focus on providing guidance on the selection of a classification method. We build a number of classifiers belonging to different classification families such as decision tree, probabilistic, neural networks, and instance-based, ensemble-based and kernel-based linear classifiers. An extensive pre-processing is carried out to ensure the quality of data and, in hence, the quality classification outcome. The records with a null entry in injury description are removed. The misspelling correction process is carried out by finding and replacing the misspelt word with a soundlike word. Meaningful phrases have been identified and kept, instead of removing the part of phrase as a stop word. The abbreviations appearing in many forms of entry are manually identified and only one form of abbreviations is used. Clustering is utilised to discriminate between non-frequent and frequent terms. This process reduced the number of text features dramatically from about 28,000 to 5000. The medical narrative text injury dataset, under consideration, is composed of many short documents. The data can be characterized as high-dimensional and sparse, i.e., few features are irrelevant but features are correlated with one another. Therefore, Matrix factorization techniques such as Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) and Non Negative Matrix Factorization (NNMF) have been used to map the processed feature space to a lower-dimensional feature space. Classifiers with these reduced feature space have been built. In experiments, a set of tests are conducted to reflect which classification method is best for the medical text classification. The Non Negative Matrix Factorization with Support Vector Machine method can achieve 93% precision which is higher than all the tested traditional classifiers. We also found that TF/IDF weighting which works well for long text classification is inferior to binary weighting in short document classification. Another finding is that the Top-n terms should be removed in consultation with medical experts, as it affects the classification performance.

Factors influencing robustness and effectiveness of conditional random fields in active learning frameworks

Active learning approaches reduce the annotation cost required by traditional supervised approaches to reach the same effectiveness by actively selecting informative instances during the learning phase. However, effectiveness and robustness of the learnt models are influenced by a number of factors. In this paper we investigate the factors that affect the effectiveness, more specifically in terms of stability and robustness, of active learning models built using conditional random fields (CRFs) for information extraction applications. Stability, defined as a small variation of performance when small variation of the training data or a small variation of the parameters occur, is a major issue for machine learning models, but even more so in the active learning framework which aims to minimise the amount of training data required. The factors we investigate are a) the choice of incremental vs. standard active learning, b) the feature set used as a representation of the text (i.e., morphological features, syntactic features, or semantic features) and c) Gaussian prior variance as one of the important CRFs parameters. Our empirical findings show that incremental learning and the Gaussian prior variance lead to more stable and robust models across iterations. Our study also demonstrates that orthographical, morphological and contextual features as a group of basic features play an important role in learning effective models across all iterations.

A continental-scale tool for acoustic identification of European bats

Summary 1. Acoustic methods are used increasingly to survey and monitor bat populations. However, the use of acoustic methods at continental scales can be hampered by the lack of standardized and objective methods to identify all species recorded. This makes comparable continent-wide monitoring difficult, impeding progress towards developing biodiversity indicators, transboundary conservation programmes and monitoring species distribution changes. 2. Here we developed a continental-scale classifier for acoustic identification of bats, which can be used throughout Europe to ensure objective, consistent and comparable species identifications. We selected 1350 full-spectrum reference calls from a set of 15 858 calls of 34 European species, from EchoBank, a global echolocation call library. We assessed 24 call parameters to evaluate how well they distinguish between species and used the 12 most useful to train a hierarchy of ensembles of artificial neural networks to distinguish the echolocation calls of these bat species. 3. Calls are first classified to one of five call-type groups, with a median accuracy of 97·6%. The median species-level classification accuracy is 83·7%, providing robust classification for most European species, and an estimate of classification error for each species. 4. These classifiers were packaged into an online tool, iBatsID, which is freely available, enabling anyone to classify European calls in an objective and consistent way, allowing standardized acoustic identification across the continent. 5. Synthesis and applications. iBatsID is the first freely available and easily accessible continental- scale bat call classifier, providing the basis for standardized, continental acoustic bat monitoring in Europe. This method can provide key information to managers and conservation planners on distribution changes and changes in bat species activity through time.

Pollen image classification using the classifynder system: Algorithm comparison and a case study on New Zealand honey

We describe an investigation into how Massey University’s Pollen Classifynder can accelerate the understanding of pollen and its role in nature. The Classifynder is an imaging microscopy system that can locate, image and classify slide based pollen samples. Given the laboriousness of purely manual image acquisition and identification it is vital to exploit assistive technologies like the Classifynder to enable acquisition and analysis of pollen samples. It is also vital that we understand the strengths and limitations of automated systems so that they can be used (and improved) to compliment the strengths and weaknesses of human analysts to the greatest extent possible. This article reviews some of our experiences with the Classifynder system and our exploration of alternative classifier models to enhance both accuracy and interpretability. Our experiments in the pollen analysis problem domain have been based on samples from the Australian National University’s pollen reference collection (2,890 grains, 15 species) and images bundled with the Classifynder system (400 grains, 4 species). These samples have been represented using the Classifynder image feature set.We additionally work through a real world case study where we assess the ability of the system to determine the pollen make-up of samples of New Zealand honey. In addition to the Classifynder’s native neural network classifier, we have evaluated linear discriminant, support vector machine, decision tree and random forest classifiers on these data with encouraging results. Our hope is that our findings will help enhance the performance of future releases of the Classifynder and other systems for accelerating the acquisition and analysis of pollen samples.