Development of record-breaking statistics for climatological time-series analysis

The number of record-breaking events expected to occur in a strictly stationary time-series depends only on the number of values in the time-series, regardless of distribution. This holds whether the events are record-breaking highs or lows and whether we count from past to present or present to past. However, these symmetries are broken in distinct ways by trends in the mean and variance. We define indices that capture this information and use them to detect weak trends from multiple time-series. Here, we use these methods to answer the following questions: (1) Is there a variability trend among globally distributed surface temperature time-series? We find a significant decreasing variability over the past century for the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN). This corresponds to about a 10% change in the standard deviation of inter-annual monthly mean temperature distributions. (2) How are record-breaking high and low surface temperatures in the United States affected by time period? We investigate the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) and find that the ratio of record-breaking highs to lows in 2006 increases as the time-series extend further into the past. When we consider the ratio as it evolves with respect to a fixed start year, we find it is strongly correlated with the ensemble mean. We also compare the ratios for USHCN and GHCN (minus USHCN stations). We find the ratios grow monotonically in the GHCN data set, but not in the USHCN data set. (3) Do we detect either mean or variance trends in annual precipitation within the United States? We find that the total annual and monthly precipitation in the United States (USHCN) has increased over the past century. Evidence for a trend in variance is inconclusive.

BREAKING CODES: MAKING THEORIES ON MENSTRUATION ACCESSIBLE THROUGH THIRD-WAVE FEMINISM

Men and women respond to situations according to their community’s social codes. With menstruation, people adhere to “menstrual codes”. Within academic communities, people adhere to “academic codes”. This report paper investigates performances of academic codes and menstrual codes. Implications of gender identity and race are missing and/or minimal in past feminist work regarding menstruation. This paper includes considerations for gender identity and race. Within the examination of academic codes, this paper discusses the inhibitive process of idea creation within the academic sphere, and the limitations to the predominant ways of knowledge sharing within, and outside of, the academic community. The digital project (www.hu.mtu.edu/~creynolds) is one example of how academic and menstrual codes can be broken. The report and project provide a broadly accessible deconstruction of menstrual advertising and academic theories while fostering conversations on menstruation through the sharing of knowledge with others, regardless of gender, race, or academic standing.

Tropopause level Rossby wave breaking in the Northern Hemisphere: a feature-based validation of the ECHAM5-HAM climate model

Breaking synoptic-scale Rossby waves (RWB) at the tropopause level are central to the daily weather evolution in the extratropics and the subtropics. RWB leads to pronounced meridional transport of heat, moisture, momentum, and chemical constituents. RWB events are manifest as elongated and narrow structures in the tropopause-level potential vorticity (PV) field. A feature-based validation approach is used to assess the representation of Northern Hemisphere RWB in present-day climate simulations carried out with the ECHAM5-HAM climate model at three different resolutions (T42L19, T63L31, and T106L31) against the ERA-40 reanalysis data set. An objective identification algorithm extracts RWB events from the isentropic PV field and allows quantifying the frequency of occurrence of RWB. The biases in the frequency of RWB are then compared to biases in the time mean tropopause-level jet wind speeds. The ECHAM5-HAM model captures the location of the RWB frequency maxima in the Northern Hemisphere at all three resolutions. However, at coarse resolution (T42L19) the overall frequency of RWB, i.e. the frequency averaged over all seasons and the entire hemisphere, is underestimated by 28%.The higher-resolution simulations capture the overall frequency of RWB much better, with a minor difference between T63L31 and T106L31 (frequency errors of −3.5 and 6%, respectively). The number of large-size RWB events is significantly underestimated by the T42L19 experiment and well represented in the T106L31 simulation. On the local scale, however, significant differences to ERA-40 are found in the higher-resolution simulations. These differences are regionally confined and vary with the season. The most striking difference between T106L31 and ERA-40 is that ECHAM5-HAM overestimates the frequency of RWB in the subtropical Atlantic in all seasons except for spring. This bias maximum is accompanied by an equatorward extension of the subtropical westerlies.

Isospin breaking in pion–deuteron scattering and the pion–nucleon scattering lengths

In recent years, high-accuracy data for pionic hydrogen and deuterium have become the primary source of information on the pion–nucleon scattering lengths. Matching the experimental precision requires, in particular, the study of isospin-breaking corrections both in pion– nucleon and pion–deuteron scattering. We review the mechanisms that lead to the cancellation of potentially enhanced virtual-photon corrections in the pion–deuteron system, and discuss the subtleties regarding the definition of the pion–nucleon scattering lengths in the presence of electromagnetic interactions by comparing to nucleon–nucleon scattering. Based on the p±p channels we find for the virtual-photon-subtracted scattering lengths in the isospin basis a1/2/ g= (170.5±2.0) · 10−3M−1p and a3/2/ g= (−86.5±1.8) · 10−3M−1p .

Solar wind dynamic pressure effect on planetary wave propagation and synoptic-scale Rossby wave breaking

We provide statistical evidence of the effect of the solar wind dynamic pressure (Psw) on the northern winter and spring circulations. We find that the vertical structure of the Northern Annular Mode (NAM), the zonal mean circulation, and Eliassen-Palm (EP)-flux anomalies show a dynamically consistent pattern of downward propagation over a period of ~45 days in response to positive Psw anomalies. When the solar irradiance is high, the signature of Psw is marked by a positive NAM anomaly descending from the stratosphere to the surface during winter. When the solar irradiance is low, the Psw signal has the opposite sign, occurs in spring, and is confined to the stratosphere. The negative Psw signal in the NAM under low solar irradiance conditions is primarily governed by enhanced vertical EP-flux divergence and a warmer polar region. The winter Psw signal under high solar irradiance conditions is associated with positive anomalies of the horizontal EP-flux divergence at 55°N–75°N and negative anomalies at 25°N–45°N, which corresponds to the positive NAM anomaly. The EP-flux divergence anomalies occur ~15 days ahead of the mean-flow changes. A significant equatorward shift of synoptic-scale Rossby wave breaking (RWB) near the tropopause is detected during January–March, corresponding to increased anticyclonic RWB and a decrease in cyclonic RWB. We suggest that the barotropic instability associated with asymmetric ozone in the upper stratosphere and the baroclinic instability associated with the polar vortex in the middle and lower stratosphere play a critical role for the winter signal and its downward propagation.

Bone mineral density (BMD) and computer tomographic measurements of the equine proximal phalanx in correlation with breaking strength

Despite the fact that bone mineral density (BMD) is an important fracture risk predictor in human medicine, studies in equine orthopedic research are still lacking. We hypothesized that BMD correlates with bone failure and fatigue fractures of this bone. Thus, the objectives of this study were to measure the structural and mechanical properties of the proximal phalanx with dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), to correlate the data obtained from DXA and computer tomography (CT) measurements to those obtained by loading pressure examination and to establish representative region of interest (ROI) for in vitro BMD measurements of the equine proximal phalanx for predicting bone failure force. DXA was used to measure the whole bone BMD and additional three ROI sites in 14 equine proximal phalanges. Following evaluation of the bone density, whole bone, cortical width and area in the mid-diaphyseal plane were measured on CT images. Bones were broken using a manually controlled universal bone crusher to measure bone failure force and reevaluated for the site of fractures on follow-up CT images. Compressive load was applied at a constant displacement rate of 2 mm/min until failure, defined as the first clear drop in the load measurement. The lowest BMD was measured at the trabecular region (mean +/- SD: 1.52 +/- 0.12 g/cm2; median: 1.48 g/cm2; range: 1.38-1.83 g/cm2). There was a significant positive linear correlation between trabelcular BMD and the breaking strength (P = 0.023, r = 0.62). The trabecular region of the proximal phalanx appears to be the only significant indicator of failure of strength in vitro. This finding should be reassessed to further reveal the prognostic value of trabecular BMD in an in vivo fracture risk model.

Isospin Breaking Effects in Kℓ4 Decays

In the framework of chiral perturbation theory with photons and leptons, the one-loop isospin-breaking effects in Kℓ4 decays due to both the photonic contribution and the quark and meson mass differences are computed. A comparison with the isospin-breaking corrections applied by recent high statistics Ke4 experiments is performed. The calculation can be used to correct the existing form factor measurements by isospin-breaking effects that have not yet been taken into account in the experimental analysis. Based on the present work, possible forthcoming experiments on Ke4 decays could correct the isospin breaking effects in a more consistent way.