UK Macroeconomic Forecasting with Many Predictors: Which Models Forecast Best and When Do They Do So?

Block factor methods offer an attractive approach to forecasting with many predictors. These extract the information in these predictors into factors reflecting different blocks of variables (e.g. a price block, a housing block, a financial block, etc.). However, a forecasting model which simply includes all blocks as predictors risks being over-parameterized. Thus, it is desirable to use a methodology which allows for different parsimonious forecasting models to hold at different points in time. In this paper, we use dynamic model averaging and dynamic model selection to achieve this goal. These methods automatically alter the weights attached to different forecasting models as evidence comes in about which has forecast well in the recent past. In an empirical study involving forecasting output growth and inflation using 139 UK monthly time series variables, we find that the set of predictors changes substantially over time. Furthermore, our results show that dynamic model averaging and model selection can greatly improve forecast performance relative to traditional forecasting methods.

The Rise and Fall of the ABS Market

The nancial crisis has raised some concern about the quality of information available on some traded assets on the securities markets to market participants and regulators. Asset-backed securitization in general got partial blame for the paucity of liquidity on bank balance sheets and the consequent credit crunch. After the Asset-Backed Security (ABS) market fell to near inactivity in 2009, the US federal government's Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) provided backing and a boost to the issuance of asset-backed securitization. In this market condition, given the nature of ABS, it is di¢ cult for them not to be relatively illiquid, and this has resulted in unacceptable levels of market risk for most investors. Their liquidity before the crisis was driven by a market in continuous expansion, fed by Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV), Conduits, and other low capitalized term-transformation vehicles. Nowadays, the industry is concerned with the ongoing ABS reforms and how these will be implemented. This article reviews the ABS market in the last decade and the possible consequences of the recent regulatory proposals. It proposes a retention policy and the institution of a new nancial body to supervise the quality of the security in an ABS pool, its liquidity, and the model risk implied by the issuer's valuation model.

UK Macroeconomic Forecasting with Many Predictors: Which Models Forecast Best and When Do They Do So?

Block factor methods offer an attractive approach to forecasting with many predictors. These extract the information in these predictors into factors reflecting different blocks of variables (e.g. a price block, a housing block, a financial block, etc.). However, a forecasting model which simply includes all blocks as predictors risks being over-parameterized. Thus, it is desirable to use a methodology which allows for different parsimonious forecasting models to hold at different points in time. In this paper, we use dynamic model averaging and dynamic model selection to achieve this goal. These methods automatically alter the weights attached to different forecasting model as evidence comes in about which has forecast well in the recent past. In an empirical study involving forecasting output and inflation using 139 UK monthly time series variables, we find that the set of predictors changes substantially over time. Furthermore, our results show that dynamic model averaging and model selection can greatly improve forecast performance relative to traditional forecasting methods.

Arch and Structural Breaks in United States Inflation

United States Phillips curves are routinely estimated without accounting for the shifts in mean inflation. As a result we may expect the standard estimates of Phillips curves to be biased and suffer from ARCH. We demonstrate this is indeed the case. We also demonstrate that once the shifts in mean inflation are accounted for the ARCH is largely eliminated in the estimated model and the model defining expected rate of inflation in the New Keynesian model plays no significant role in the dynamics of inflation.

Further development of the baboon as a model for acute schistosomiasis

Baboons develop a syndrome, including eosinophilia and transient fever, after infection with carcariae of Schistosoma mansoni that is consistent with the human syndrome of acute schistosomiasis. Radiotelemetry can be used to follow the course of fever in infected baboons. Individual variations in intensity of disease were noted in baboons. These symptoms and signs were more closely linked to the onset of oviposition by the newly matured worms than they were to the presence of migrating schistosoma or maturing worms. The baboon is concluded to be a suitable and useful model for human acute schistosomiasis mansoni.

Deliberative ecological economics: emergence and research issues

We discuss the recent emergence of "deliberative ecological economics", a field that highlights the potential of deliberation for improving environmental governance. We locate the emergence of this literature in the long concern in ecological economics over the policy implications of limited views of human action and its encounter with deliberative democracy scholarship and the model of communicative rationality as an alternative to utilitarianism. Considering criticisms over methods used and the focus of research in deliberative decision-making, we put forward a research agenda for deliberative ecological economics. Given the promising potential of deliberative processes for improving the effectiveness and legitimacy of environmental decision-making, work in this area could help advance both theory and practice in environmental governance.

The use of classification and regression trees to predict the likelihood of seasonal influenza.

Background Individual signs and symptoms are of limited value for the diagnosis of influenza. Objective To develop a decision tree for the diagnosis of influenza based on a classification and regression tree (CART) analysis. Methods Data from two previous similar cohort studies were assembled into a single dataset. The data were randomly divided into a development set (70%) and a validation set (30%). We used CART analysis to develop three models that maximize the number of patients who do not require diagnostic testing prior to treatment decisions. The validation set was used to evaluate overfitting of the model to the training set. Results Model 1 has seven terminal nodes based on temperature, the onset of symptoms and the presence of chills, cough and myalgia. Model 2 was a simpler tree with only two splits based on temperature and the presence of chills. Model 3 was developed with temperature as a dichotomous variable (≥38°C) and had only two splits based on the presence of fever and myalgia. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCC) for the development and validation sets, respectively, were 0.82 and 0.80 for Model 1, 0.75 and 0.76 for Model 2 and 0.76 and 0.77 for Model 3. Model 2 classified 67% of patients in the validation group into a high- or low-risk group compared with only 38% for Model 1 and 54% for Model 3. Conclusions A simple decision tree (Model 2) classified two-thirds of patients as low or high risk and had an AUROCC of 0.76. After further validation in an independent population, this CART model could support clinical decision making regarding influenza, with low-risk patients requiring no further evaluation for influenza and high-risk patients being candidates for empiric symptomatic or drug therapy.

Dynamical modeling and analysis of large cellular regulatory networks.

The dynamical analysis of large biological regulatory networks requires the development of scalable methods for mathematical modeling. Following the approach initially introduced by Thomas, we formalize the interactions between the components of a network in terms of discrete variables, functions, and parameters. Model simulations result in directed graphs, called state transition graphs. We are particularly interested in reachability properties and asymptotic behaviors, which correspond to terminal strongly connected components (or "attractors") in the state transition graph. A well-known problem is the exponential increase of the size of state transition graphs with the number of network components, in particular when using the biologically realistic asynchronous updating assumption. To address this problem, we have developed several complementary methods enabling the analysis of the behavior of large and complex logical models: (i) the definition of transition priority classes to simplify the dynamics; (ii) a model reduction method preserving essential dynamical properties, (iii) a novel algorithm to compact state transition graphs and directly generate compressed representations, emphasizing relevant transient and asymptotic dynamical properties. The power of an approach combining these different methods is demonstrated by applying them to a recent multilevel logical model for the network controlling CD4+ T helper cell response to antigen presentation and to a dozen cytokines. This model accounts for the differentiation of canonical Th1 and Th2 lymphocytes, as well as of inflammatory Th17 and regulatory T cells, along with many hybrid subtypes. All these methods have been implemented into the software GINsim, which enables the definition, the analysis, and the simulation of logical regulatory graphs.

A qualitative response model of thermal comfort

A sound statistical methodology is presented for modelling the correspondence between the characteristics of individuals, their thermal environment, and their thermal sensation. The proposed methodology substantially improves that developed by P.O. Fanger, by formulating a more general and precise model of thermal comfort. It enables us to estimate the model from a sample of data where all the parameters of comfort vary at the same time, which is not possible with that adopted by Fanger. Moreover, the present model is still valid when thermal conditions are far from optimum. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd.

The Peace Processes in the Basque Country and Northern Ireland (1994-2006): a Comparative Approach

The peace process in Northern Ireland demonstrates that new sovereignty formulas need to be explored in order to meet the demands of the populations and territories in conflict. The profound transformation of the classic symbolic elements of the nation-state within the context of the European Union has greatly contributed to the prospects for a resolution of this old conflict. Today’s discussions are focused on the search for instruments of shared sovereignty that are adapted to a complex and plural social reality. This new approach for finding a solution to the Irish conflict is particularly relevant to the Basque debate about formulating creative and modern solutions to similar conflicts over identity and sovereignty. The notion of shared sovereignty implemented in Northern Ireland –a formula for complex interdependent relations– is of significant relevance to the broader international community and is likely to become an increasingly potent and transcendent model for conflict resolution and peace building.

Octacalcium Phosphate (OCP) Crystals Induce Synovial Inflammation and Cartilage

Introduction: The presence of intra-articular basic calcium phosphate (BCP) crystals, including OCP, carbonated-apatite, hydroxyapatite and tricalcium phosphate crystals, is associated with severe osteoarthritis and destructive arthropathies such as Milwaukee shoulder. Although BCP crystals displayed, in vitro, mitogenic, anabolic and catabolic responses, their intra-articular effect was never assessed.Objective: To determine the effects of OCP crystals in joints in vivo.Methods: OCP crystals (200 ug in 20 ml PBS) were injected into the right knee joint (the contra-lateral knee joint injected with 20 ul of PBS serving as a control) of wild-type mice treated or not by the IL1R antagonist Anakinra or mice deficient for the inflammasome proteins ASC and NALP3. 4 days and 17 days after crystal injection, mice were sacrificed and knee joints dissected. Histological scoring for synovial inflammation and characterisation of macrophages, neutrophils and T cells were performed. Technetium (Tc) uptake was measured at 6h, 1 and 4 days after OCP injection. Cartilage degradation was evaluated by Safranin O staining and VDIPEN immunohistochemistry. Intra-articular localisation of injected OCP crystals was evidenced by Von Kossa staining.Results: The intra-articular localisation of injected OCP crystals was evidenced by Von Kossa staining performed on non-decalcified samples embedded in methyl-metacrylate. Injection of OCP crystals into knee joints led at day 4 to an inflammatory response with intense macrophage staining and also some neutrophil recruitment in the synovial membrane. This synovitis was not accompanied by increased Tc uptake into the knee joint, Tc uptake being similar in OCP crystal injected knee or control knee at all time points investigated (6h, 1 day, 4 days). The histological modifications persisted over 17 days, with an additional fibrosis evidenced at this later time-point. The OCP crystal-induced synovitis was totally IL-1a and IL-1 independent as shown by the absence of inhibitory effects of anakinra injected into wild-type mice. Accordingly, OCP crystal-induced synovitis was similar in ASC-/- and NALP3-/- mice as no alterations of inflammation were demonstrated between these mice groups. Concerning cartilage matrix degradation, OCP crystals induced a strong breakdown of proteoglycans 4 and 17 days after injection, as measured by loss of red staining from Safranin O-stained sections of cartilage surfaces. In addition, we also measured advanced cartilage matrix destruction mediated by MMPs, as evidenced by VDIPEN staining of cartilage. OCP-mediated cartilage degradation was similar in all experimental conditions tested (WT+Anakinra, or ASC or NALP3 deficient mice).Conclusion: These data indicate in vivo that the intra-articular presence of OCP crystals is associated with cartilage destruction along with synovial inflammation. This is an interesting and new model of destructive arthropathy related to BCP crystals which will allow to assess new therapies in this disease.

Role of ENaC in skin wound healing and phenotypic analysis of GILZ-deficient mice

In my first project, I analyzed the role of the amiloride-sensitive epithelial sodium channel ENaC) in the skin during wound healing. ENaC is present in the skin and a function in keratinocyte differentiation and barrier formation has been demonstrated. Previous findings suggested, that ENaC might be implicated in keratinocyte migration, although its role in wound healing was not analyzed yet. Using skin-specific (K14-Cre) conditional ENaC knockout and overexpressing mice, I determined the wound closure kinetic and performed morphometric measurements. The time course of wound repair was not significantly different in knockouts or transgenics when compared to control mice and the morphology of the closing wound was not altered. In my second project, I studied the glucocorticoid-induced leucine zipper (GILZ, Tsc22d3). GILZ is widely expressed and an important role has been predicted in immunity, adipogenesis and renal sodium handling. Mice were generated that constitutively lack all the functional domains of the Gilz gene. In these mice, the expression of GILZ mRNA transcripts and protein were completely abolished in all tissues tested. Surprisingly, knockout mice survived. To test whether GILZ mimicks glucocorticoid action, we studied its implication in T- and B- cell development and in a model of sepsis. We measured cytokine secretion in different inflammatory models, like in peritoneal and bone marrow-derived macrophages, in splenocytes and a model of sepsis. In all our experiments, cytokine secretion from GILZ- deficient cells was not different from controls. From 6 months onwards, knockout mice contained significantly less body fat and were lighter. Following sodium and water deprivation experiments, water and salt homeostasis was preserved. Sterility of knockout males was associated with a severe testis dysplasia, smaller seminiferous tubules, the number of Sertoli and germ cell was reduced while increased apoptosis, but not cell proliferation, was evidenced. The interstitial Leydig cell population was augmented, and higher plasma FSH and testosterone levels were found. Interestingly, the expression of the target gene Ppar2 was diminished in the testis and in the liver, but not in the skin, kidney or fat. Tsc22d1 mRNA transcript level was found to be upregulated in testis, but not in the kidney or fat tissue. In most tissue, excepted the testis, GILZ-deficient mice reveal functional redundancy amongst members of the Tsc22d family or genes involved in the same regulatory pathways. In summary, contrarily to the published in vitro data, GILZ does not play a crucial role attributed in immunology or inflammation, but we identified a novel function in spermatogenesis. -- Dans mon premier projet, j'ai analysé le rôle du canal épithélial sodique sensible à l'amiloride (ENaC) dans la cicatrisation de la peau. ENaC est présent dans la peau et il a une fonction dans la différenciation des kératinocytes et dans la formation de la barrière. Des études suggèrent qu'ENaC pourrait être impliqué dans la migration des kératinocytes, cependant, son rôle dans la cicatrisation n'a pas encore été étudié. A l'aide de souris qui surexpriment ou qui sont knockout pour ENaC, spécifiquement dans la peau (K14-Cre), j'ai analysé le temps de clôture de la cicatrice et j'ai aussi étudié la morphologie de la plaie guérissant. Chez les souris qui surexpriment ou chez les knockouts, la vitesse de fermeture et la morphologie de la cicatrice étaient identiques aux souris contrôles. Dans mon second projet, j'ai étudié le glucocorticoid-induced leucine zipper (GILZ, Tsc22d3). GILZ est largement exprimé et un rôle important a été prédit dans l'immunité, l'adipogénèse et le transport sodique rénal. Des souris ont été générées dont les domaines fonctionnels du gène Gilz sont éliminés. L'expression de GILZ en ARNm et protéine a été complètement abolie dans tous les tissus testés. Étonnamment, ces souris knockout survivent. Afin de tester si GILZ imite les effets des glucocorticoïdes, nous avons étudié son implication dans le développement des cellules T et B ainsi qu'un modèle de septicémie. Nous avons mesuré la sécrétion de cytokines à partir de différents modèles d'inflammation tels que des macrophages péritonéaux ou de moelle, de splénocytes ou encore d'un modèle de septicémie. Dans toutes nos expériences, la sécrétion de cytokines de cellules GILZ-déficientes était semblable. Dès 6 mois, les knockouts contenaient significativement moins de graisses et étaient plus légères. Suite à une privation sodique et aqueuse, l'homéostasie du sel et de l'eau était préservée. Les mâles knockouts présentaient une stérilité accompagnée d'une dysplasie testiculaire sévère, de tubules séminifères étaient plus petits et contenaient un nombre réduit de cellules de Sertoli et de cellules germinales. L'apoptose était augmentée dans ces cellules mais pas la prolifération cellulaire. Le nombre de cellules de Leydig était aussi plus élevé, ainsi que la FSH et la testostérone. L'expression du gène cible Pparγ2 était diminuée dans le testicule et le foie, mais pas dans la peau, le rein ou le tissu adipeux. L'ARNm de Tsc22d1 était plus exprimé dans le testicule, mais pas dans le rein ou le tissu adipeux. Dans la plupart des tissus, sauf le testicule, les souris knockouts révélaient une redondance fonctionnelle des autres membres de la famille Tsc22d ou de gènes impliqués dans les mêmes voies de régulation. En résumé, contrairement aux données in vitro, GILZ ne joue pas un rôle essentiel en immunologie, mais nous avons identifié une nouvelle fonction dans la spermatogénèse.

A Study of Alcohol Problems and Marriage from a Treatment Perspective

This thesis is concerned with alcohol problems and marital relationships. It is particularly interested in these dynamics from a treatment perspective. The study addresses theory, research and clinical practice in the field of alcohol problems. It specifically considers these areas as they relate to enhancing understanding of the dynamics between alcohol problems and marriage. The study examines three theoretical paradigms, the disease concept of addiction, behavioural/cognitive behavioural and systems based approaches to understanding alcohol addiction. This provides a multiple theory base from which research in the field and the clinical data collected in the current research is analysed and interpreted. The study reviews research findings that have contributed to the recognition of marital treatment interventions as significant in the alcohol field. It highlights the discrepancies between such research findings and developments in actual clinical practice. In doing so, the study illustrates the gap between theory, research and clinical practice. The need for a more effective framework of information exchange across these areas of activity is identified and a model for better exchange is presented and discussed. This model highlights the importance of including clients' experiences to influence policy, practice, theory and research. In the research, specific attention is focused on the experiences of couples in alcohol treatment. Clinical data is collected from a series of alcohol treatment couples group therapy sessions. The research analysis of the clinical data identifies and extracts concerns as expressed by couples in treatment. Interpretation of these identified concerns or themes is conducted by employing the theoretical constructs of the three selected theoretical paradigms in conjunction with group work theory. On the basis of the findings in this thesis a model for a maritally sensitive assessment framework is developed. The model identifies a number of factors that should be considered in order to enhance appreciation of the interaction between alcohol problems and marital dynamics. This has particular significance for treatment interventions.This resource was contributed by The National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.

A deterministic model to assess the impact of AIDS interventions in countries with generalized HIV epidemic. An application to Botswana

General introductionThe Human Immunodeficiency/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) epidemic, despite recent encouraging announcements by the World Health Organization (WHO) is still today one of the world's major health care challenges.The present work lies in the field of health care management, in particular, we aim to evaluate the behavioural and non-behavioural interventions against HIV/AIDS in developing countries through a deterministic simulation model, both in human and economic terms. We will focus on assessing the effectiveness of the antiretroviral therapies (ART) in heterosexual populations living in lesser developed countries where the epidemic has generalized (formerly defined by the WHO as type II countries). The model is calibrated using Botswana as a case study, however our model can be adapted to other countries with similar transmission dynamics.The first part of this thesis consists of reviewing the main mathematical concepts describing the transmission of infectious agents in general but with a focus on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission. We also review deterministic models assessing HIV interventions with a focus on models aimed at African countries. This review helps us to recognize the need for a generic model and allows us to define a typical structure of such a generic deterministic model.The second part describes the main feed-back loops underlying the dynamics of HIV transmission. These loops represent the foundation of our model. This part also provides a detailed description of the model, including the various infected and non-infected population groups, the type of sexual relationships, the infection matrices, important factors impacting HIV transmission such as condom use, other sexually transmitted diseases (STD) and male circumcision. We also included in the model a dynamic life expectancy calculator which, to our knowledge, is a unique feature allowing more realistic cost-efficiency calculations. Various intervention scenarios are evaluated using the model, each of them including ART in combination with other interventions, namely: circumcision, campaigns aimed at behavioral change (Abstain, Be faithful or use Condoms also named ABC campaigns), and treatment of other STD. A cost efficiency analysis (CEA) is performed for each scenario. The CEA consists of measuring the cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted. This part also describes the model calibration and validation, including a sensitivity analysis.The third part reports the results and discusses the model limitations. In particular, we argue that the combination of ART and ABC campaigns and ART and treatment of other STDs are the most cost-efficient interventions through 2020. The main model limitations include modeling the complexity of sexual relationships, omission of international migration and ignoring variability in infectiousness according to the AIDS stage.The fourth part reviews the major contributions of the thesis and discusses model generalizability and flexibility. Finally, we conclude that by selecting the adequate interventions mix, policy makers can significantly reduce the adult prevalence in Botswana in the coming twenty years providing the country and its donors can bear the cost involved.Part I: Context and literature reviewIn this section, after a brief introduction to the general literature we focus in section two on the key mathematical concepts describing the transmission of infectious agents in general with a focus on HIV transmission. Section three provides a description of HIV policy models, with a focus on deterministic models. This leads us in section four to envision the need for a generic deterministic HIV policy model and briefly describe the structure of such a generic model applicable to countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemic, also defined as pattern II countries by the WHO.

Mandibular osteoradionecrosis in squamous cell carcinoma of the oral cavity and oropharynx: incidence and risk factors.

Objective. Mandibular osteoradionecrosis (ORN) is a serious complication of radiotherapy (RT) in head and neck cancer patients. The aim of this study was to analyze the incidence of and risk factors for mandibular ORN in squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) of the oral cavity and oropharynx.Study Design. Case series with chart review.Setting. University tertiary care center for head and neck oncology.Subjects and Methods. Seventy-three patients treated for stage I to IV SCC of the oral cavity and oropharynx between 2000 and 2007, with a minimum follow-up of 2 years, were included in the study. Treatment modalities included both RT with curative intent and adjuvant RT following tumor surgery. The log-rank test and Cox model were used for univariate and multivariate analyses.Results. The incidence of mandibular ORN was 40% at 5 years. Using univariate analysis, the following risk factors were identified: oral cavity tumors (P < .01), bone invasion (P < .02), any surgery prior to RT (P < .04), and bone surgery (P < .0001). By multivariate analysis, mandibular surgery proved to be the most important risk factor and the only one reaching statistical significance (P < .0002).Conclusion. Mandibular ORN is a frequent long-term complication of RT for oral cavity and oropharynx cancers. Mandibular surgery before irradiation is the only independent risk factor. These aspects must be considered when planning treatment for these tumors.