Prediction of hip fracture risk by quantitative ultrasound in more than 7000 Swiss women > or =70 years of age: comparison of three technologically different bone ultrasound devices in the SEMOF study.

To compare the prediction of hip fracture risk of several bone ultrasounds (QUS), 7062 Swiss women > or =70 years of age were measured with three QUSs (two of the heel, one of the phalanges). Heel QUSs were both predictive of hip fracture risk, whereas the phalanges QUS was not. INTRODUCTION: As the number of hip fracture is expected to increase during these next decades, it is important to develop strategies to detect subjects at risk. Quantitative bone ultrasound (QUS), an ionizing radiation-free method, which is transportable, could be interesting for this purpose. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The Swiss Evaluation of the Methods of Measurement of Osteoporotic Fracture Risk (SEMOF) study is a multicenter cohort study, which compared three QUSs for the assessment of hip fracture risk in a sample of 7609 elderly ambulatory women > or =70 years of age. Two QUSs measured the heel (Achilles+; GE-Lunar and Sahara; Hologic), and one measured the heel (DBM Sonic 1200; IGEA). The Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the hazard of the first hip fracture, adjusted for age, BMI, and center, and the area under the ROC curves were calculated to compare the devices and their parameters. RESULTS: From the 7609 women who were included in the study, 7062 women 75.2 +/- 3.1 (SD) years of age were prospectively followed for 2.9 +/- 0.8 years. Eighty women reported a hip fracture. A decrease by 1 SD of the QUS variables corresponded to an increase of the hip fracture risk from 2.3 (95% CI, 1.7, 3.1) to 2.6 (95% CI, 1.9, 3.4) for the three variables of Achilles+ and from 2.2 (95% CI, 1.7, 3.0) to 2.4 (95% CI, 1.8, 3.2) for the three variables of Sahara. Risk gradients did not differ significantly among the variables of the two heel QUS devices. On the other hand, the phalanges QUS (DBM Sonic 1200) was not predictive of hip fracture risk, with an adjusted hazard risk of 1.2 (95% CI, 0.9, 1.5), even after reanalysis of the digitalized data and using different cut-off levels (1700 or 1570 m/s). CONCLUSIONS: In this elderly women population, heel QUS devices were both predictive of hip fracture risk, whereas the phalanges QUS device was not.

What makes one person paranoid and another person anxious? The differential prediction of social anxiety and persecutory ideation in an experimental situation

The study shows that social anxiety and persecutory ideation share many of the same predictive factors. Non-clinical paranoia may be a type of anxious fear. However, perceptual anomalies are a distinct predictor of paranoia. In the context of an individual feeling anxious, the occurrence of odd internal feelings in social situations may lead to delusional ideas through a sense of" things not seeming right". The study illustrates the approach of focusing on experiences such as paranoid thinking rather than diagnoses such as schizophrenia.

Effect of meal ingestion on liver stiffness in patients with cirrhosis and portal hypertension.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Liver stiffness is increasingly used in the non-invasive evaluation of chronic liver diseases. Liver stiffness correlates with hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) in patients with cirrhosis and holds prognostic value in this population. Hence, accuracy in its measurement is needed. Several factors independent of fibrosis influence liver stiffness, but there is insufficient information on whether meal ingestion modifies liver stiffness in cirrhosis. We investigated the changes in liver stiffness occurring after the ingestion of a liquid standard test meal in this population. METHODS: In 19 patients with cirrhosis and esophageal varices (9 alcoholic, 9 HCV-related, 1 NASH; Child score 6.9±1.8), liver stiffness (transient elastography), portal blood flow (PBF) and hepatic artery blood flow (HABF) (Doppler-Ultrasound) were measured before and 30 minutes after receiving a standard mixed liquid meal. In 10 the HVPG changes were also measured. RESULTS: Post-prandial hyperemia was accompanied by a marked increase in liver stiffness (+27±33%; p<0.0001). Changes in liver stiffness did not correlate with PBF changes, but directly correlated with HABF changes (r = 0.658; p = 0.002). After the meal, those patients showing a decrease in HABF (n = 13) had a less marked increase of liver stiffness as compared to patients in whom HABF increased (n = 6; +12±21% vs. +62±29%,p<0.0001). As expected, post-prandial hyperemia was associated with an increase in HVPG (n = 10; +26±13%, p = 0.003), but changes in liver stiffness did not correlate with HVPG changes. CONCLUSIONS: Liver stiffness increases markedly after a liquid test meal in patients with cirrhosis, suggesting that its measurement should be performed in standardized fasting conditions. The hepatic artery buffer response appears an important factor modulating postprandial changes of liver stiffness. The post-prandial increase in HVPG cannot be predicted by changes in liver stiffness.

Genome-wide prediction of matrix attachment regions that increase gene expression in mammalian cells.

Gene transfer in eukaryotic cells and organisms suffers from epigenetic effects that result in low or unstable transgene expression and high clonal variability. Use of epigenetic regulators such as matrix attachment regions (MARs) is a promising approach to alleviate such unwanted effects. Dissection of a known MAR allowed the identification of sequence motifs that mediate elevated transgene expression. Bioinformatics analysis implied that these motifs adopt a curved DNA structure that positions nucleosomes and binds specific transcription factors. From these observations, we computed putative MARs from the human genome. Cloning of several predicted MARs indicated that they are much more potent than the previously known element, boosting the expression of recombinant proteins from cultured cells as well as mediating high and sustained expression in mice. Thus we computationally identified potent epigenetic regulators, opening new strategies toward high and stable transgene expression for research, therapeutic production or gene-based therapies.

Artificially Intelligent and Adaptive Methods for Prediction and Analysis of Superheater Fireside Corrosion in Fluidized Bed Boilers

Superheater corrosion causes vast annual losses for the power companies. With a reliable corrosion prediction method, the plants can be designed accordingly, and knowledge of fuel selection and determination of process conditions may be utilized to minimize superheater corrosion. Growing interest to use recycled fuels creates additional demands for the prediction of corrosion potential. Models depending on corrosion theories will fail, if relations between the inputs and the output are poorly known. A prediction model based on fuzzy logic and an artificial neural network is able to improve its performance as the amount of data increases. The corrosion rate of a superheater material can most reliably be detected with a test done in a test combustor or in a commercial boiler. The steel samples can be located in a special, temperature-controlled probe, and exposed to the corrosive environment for a desired time. These tests give information about the average corrosion potential in that environment. Samples may also be cut from superheaters during shutdowns. The analysis ofsamples taken from probes or superheaters after exposure to corrosive environment is a demanding task: if the corrosive contaminants can be reliably analyzed, the corrosion chemistry can be determined, and an estimate of the material lifetime can be given. In cases where the reason for corrosion is not clear, the determination of the corrosion chemistry and the lifetime estimation is more demanding. In order to provide a laboratory tool for the analysis and prediction, a newapproach was chosen. During this study, the following tools were generated: · Amodel for the prediction of superheater fireside corrosion, based on fuzzy logic and an artificial neural network, build upon a corrosion database developed offuel and bed material analyses, and measured corrosion data. The developed model predicts superheater corrosion with high accuracy at the early stages of a project. · An adaptive corrosion analysis tool based on image analysis, constructedas an expert system. This system utilizes implementation of user-defined algorithms, which allows the development of an artificially intelligent system for thetask. According to the results of the analyses, several new rules were developed for the determination of the degree and type of corrosion. By combining these two tools, a user-friendly expert system for the prediction and analyses of superheater fireside corrosion was developed. This tool may also be used for the minimization of corrosion risks by the design of fluidized bed boilers.

Prediction of crude protein and classification of the growth stage of wheat plant samples from NIR spectra

Near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) was used to analyse the crude protein content of dried and milled samples of wheat and to discriminate samples according to their stage of growth. A calibration set of 72 samples from three growth stages of wheat (tillering, heading and harvest) and a validation set of 28 samples was collected for this purpose. Principal components analysis (PCA) of the calibration set discriminated groups of samples according to the growth stage of the wheat. Based on these differences, a classification procedure (SIMCA) showed a very accurate classification of the validation set samples : all of them were successfully classified in each group using this procedure when both the residual and the leverage were used in the classification criteria. Looking only at the residuals all the samples were also correctly classified except one of tillering stage that was assigned to both tillering and heading stages. Finally, the determination of the crude protein content of these samples was considered in two ways: building up a global model for all the growth stages, and building up local models for each stage, separately. The best prediction results for crude protein were obtained using a global model for samples in the two first growth stages (tillering and heading), and using a local model for the harvest stage samples.

Prediction of rabbit meat and bone weight using measurements and sample cuts

Regression equations predicting dissectable muscle weight in rabbits from external measurements were presented. Bone weight and weight of muscle groups were also carcass predicted. Predictive capacity of external measurements, retail cuts and muscle groups on total muscle, percent muscle, total bone and muscle to bone ratio were studied separately. Measurements on dissected retail cuts should be included in ordcr to obtain good equations for prediction of percent muscle in the carcass. Equations for predicting the muscle to bone ratio using external mcasurcments and data from the dissection of one hind leg were suggested. The equations had generally high coefficients of determination. The coefficient of determination for prediction of dissectable muscle was 0.91, and for percent muscle in the carcass 0.79.

A genetic risk score combining 32 SNPs is associated with body mass index and improves obesity prediction in people with major depressive disorder.

BACKGROUND: Obesity is strongly associated with major depressive disorder (MDD) and various other diseases. Genome-wide association studies have identified multiple risk loci robustly associated with body mass index (BMI). In this study, we aimed to investigate whether a genetic risk score (GRS) combining multiple BMI risk loci might have utility in prediction of obesity in patients with MDD. METHODS: Linear and logistic regression models were conducted to predict BMI and obesity, respectively, in three independent large case-control studies of major depression (Radiant, GSK-Munich, PsyCoLaus). The analyses were first performed in the whole sample and then separately in depressed cases and controls. An unweighted GRS was calculated by summation of the number of risk alleles. A weighted GRS was calculated as the sum of risk alleles at each locus multiplied by their effect sizes. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to compare the discriminatory ability of predictors of obesity. RESULTS: In the discovery phase, a total of 2,521 participants (1,895 depressed patients and 626 controls) were included from the Radiant study. Both unweighted and weighted GRS were highly associated with BMI (P <0.001) but explained only a modest amount of variance. Adding 'traditional' risk factors to GRS significantly improved the predictive ability with the area under the curve (AUC) in the ROC analysis, increasing from 0.58 to 0.66 (95% CI, 0.62-0.68; χ(2) = 27.68; P <0.0001). Although there was no formal evidence of interaction between depression status and GRS, there was further improvement in AUC in the ROC analysis when depression status was added to the model (AUC = 0.71; 95% CI, 0.68-0.73; χ(2) = 28.64; P <0.0001). We further found that the GRS accounted for more variance of BMI in depressed patients than in healthy controls. Again, GRS discriminated obesity better in depressed patients compared to healthy controls. We later replicated these analyses in two independent samples (GSK-Munich and PsyCoLaus) and found similar results. CONCLUSIONS: A GRS proved to be a highly significant predictor of obesity in people with MDD but accounted for only modest amount of variance. Nevertheless, as more risk loci are identified, combining a GRS approach with information on non-genetic risk factors could become a useful strategy in identifying MDD patients at higher risk of developing obesity.

A prospective observational study comparing a non-operator dependent automatic PWV analyser to pulse pressure, in assessing arterial stiffness in hemodialysis.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) accelerates vascular stiffening related to age. Arterial stiffness may be evaluated measuring the carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (PWV) or more simply, as recommended by KDOQI, monitoring pulse pressure (PP). Both correlate to survival and incidence of cardiovascular disease. PWV can also be estimated on the brachial artery using a Mobil-O-Graph; a non-operator dependent automatic device. The aim was to analyse whether, in a dialysis population, PWV obtained by Mobil-O-Graph (MogPWV) is more sensitive for vascular aging than PP. METHODS: A cohort of 143 patients from 4 dialysis units has been followed measuring MogPWV and PP every 3 to 6 months and compared to a control group with the same risk factors but an eGFR > 30 ml/min. RESULTS: MogPWV contrarily to PP did discriminate the dialysis population from the control group. The mean difference translated in age between the two populations was 8.4 years. The increase in MogPWV, as a function of age, was more rapid in the dialysis group. 13.3% of the dialysis patients but only 3.0% of the control group were outliers for MogPWV. The mortality rate (16 out of 143) was similar in outliers and inliers (7.4 and 8.0%/year). Stratifying patients according to MogPWV, a significant difference in survival was seen. A high parathormone (PTH) and to be dialysed for a hypertensive nephropathy were associated to a higher baseline MogPWV. CONCLUSIONS: Assessing PWV on the brachial artery using a Mobil-O-Graph is a valid and simple alternative, which, in the dialysis population, is more sensitive for vascular aging than PP. As demonstrated in previous studies PWV correlates to mortality. Among specific CKD risk factors only PTH is associated with a higher baseline PWV. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02327962.

The Atherosclerosis Burden Score (ABS): a Convenient Ultrasound-Based Score of Peripheral Atherosclerosis for Coronary Artery Disease Prediction.

Ultrasonographic detection of subclinical atherosclerosis improves cardiovascular risk stratification, but uncertainty persists about the most discriminative method to apply. In this study, we found that the "atherosclerosis burden score (ABS)", a novel straightforward ultrasonographic score that sums the number of carotid and femoral arterial bifurcations with plaques, significantly outperformed common carotid intima-media thickness, carotid mean/maximal thickness, and carotid/femoral plaque scores for the detection of coronary artery disease (CAD) (receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve area under the curve (AUC) = 0.79; P = 0.027 to <0.001 with the other five US endpoints) in 203 patients undergoing coronary angiography. ABS was also more correlated with CAD extension (R = 0.55; P < 0.001). Furthermore, in a second group of 1128 patients without cardiovascular disease, ABS was weakly correlated with the European Society of Cardiology chart risk categories (R (2) = 0.21), indicating that ABS provided information beyond usual cardiovascular risk factor-based risk stratification. Pending prospective studies on hard cardiovascular endpoints, ABS appears as a promising tool in primary prevention.

Prediction in forensic science: a critical examination of common understandings

In this commentary, we argue that the term 'prediction' is overly used when in fact, referring to foundational writings of de Finetti, the correspondent term should be inference. In particular, we intend (i) to summarize and clarify relevant subject matter on prediction from established statistical theory, and (ii) point out the logic of this understanding with respect practical uses of the term prediction. Written from an interdisciplinary perspective, associating statistics and forensic science as an example, this discussion also connects to related fields such as medical diagnosis and other areas of application where reasoning based on scientific results is practiced in societal relevant contexts. This includes forensic psychology that uses prediction as part of its vocabulary when dealing with matters that arise in the course of legal proceedings.

Prediction of Post-Weaning Fibrinogen Status during Cardiopulmonary Bypass: An Observational Study in 110 Patients.

BACKGROUND: After cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB), acquired coagulopathy often leads to post-CPB bleeding. Though multifactorial in origin, this coagulopathy is often aggravated by deficient fibrinogen levels. OBJECTIVE: To assess whether laboratory and thrombelastometric testing on CPB can predict plasma fibrinogen immediately after CPB weaning. PATIENTS / METHODS: This prospective study in 110 patients undergoing major cardiovascular surgery at risk of post-CPB bleeding compares fibrinogen level (Clauss method) and function (fibrin-specific thrombelastometry) in order to study the predictability of their course early after termination of CPB. Linear regression analysis and receiver operating characteristics were used to determine correlations and predictive accuracy. RESULTS: Quantitative estimation of post-CPB Clauss fibrinogen from on-CPB fibrinogen was feasible with small bias (+0.19 g/l), but with poor precision and a percentage of error >30%. A clinically useful alternative approach was developed by using on-CPB A10 to predict a Clauss fibrinogen range of interest instead of a discrete level. An on-CPB A10 ≤10 mm identified patients with a post-CPB Clauss fibrinogen of ≤1.5 g/l with a sensitivity of 0.99 and a positive predictive value of 0.60; it also identified those without a post-CPB Clauss fibrinogen <2.0 g/l with a specificity of 0.83. CONCLUSIONS: When measured on CPB prior to weaning, a FIBTEM A10 ≤10 mm is an early alert for post-CPB fibrinogen levels below or within the substitution range (1.5-2.0 g/l) recommended in case of post-CPB coagulopathic bleeding. This helps to minimize the delay to data-based hemostatic management after weaning from CPB.

Prediction of heat transfer on kraft recovery boiler

Työssä tutkittiin Andritz-Ahlstrom toimittamien soodakattiloiden lämmönsiirtoa ANITA 2.20- suunnitteluohjelmalla feedback- laskentaa apuna käyttäen. Data laskentaan saatiin kattiloiden takuukokeissa mitatuista arvoista. Mittaukset on suoritettiin Andritz-Ahlstromin henkilökunnan toimesta tehdashenkilökunnan avustuksella. Feedback -laskenta tapahtui mittaustulosten perusteella, joten tiettyä virhettä luonnollisesti esiintyi. Aluksi laskettiin taseet molempien ekojen yli erikseen sekä molemmat yhdessä Excel-taulukkolaskentaohjelmalla. Täältä saatiin oletettu savukaasuvirtaus kattilassa. Tämän jälkeen lämpöpintoja muokattiin todellisuutta vastaaviksi yleislikaisuuskerrointa muuttamalla (overall fouling factor). Kertoimet ovat liikkuivat noin 0.4 ja 1.6 välillä riipuen kattilan tyypistä ja ANITAn oletuksesta lämpöpintojen likaisuudelle. Havaittin että yhtä varsinaista syytä lämpöpintojen eroavaisuuteen oletetusta ei saatu. Syitä toiminnan poikkeamiseen oli monia. Mm. etukammion koolla havaittiin olevan suurtakin vaikutusta tulistimien, etenkin savukaasuvirrassa ensimmäisen tulistimen toimintaan. Yleisesti todettiin muiden tulistimien vastaavan oletettua toimintaa. Keittopinnan ja ekonomiserien toimintaa tutkittiin hivenen suppeammin ja havaittiin niiden toimivan huomattavasti stabiilimmin kuin tulistimien. Likaisuus kertoimet oletetusta vaihtelivat noin ±20 %.