A critical evaluation of secondary cancer risk models applied to Monte Carlo dose distributions of 2-dimensional, 3-dimensional conformal and hybrid intensity-modulated radiation therapy for breast cancer.

The comparison of radiotherapy techniques regarding secondary cancer risk has yielded contradictory results possibly stemming from the many different approaches used to estimate risk. The purpose of this study was to make a comprehensive evaluation of different available risk models applied to detailed whole-body dose distributions computed by Monte Carlo for various breast radiotherapy techniques including conventional open tangents, 3D conformal wedged tangents and hybrid intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT). First, organ-specific linear risk models developed by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) and the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) VII committee were applied to mean doses for remote organs only and all solid organs. Then, different general non-linear risk models were applied to the whole body dose distribution. Finally, organ-specific non-linear risk models for the lung and breast were used to assess the secondary cancer risk for these two specific organs. A total of 32 different calculated absolute risks resulted in a broad range of values (between 0.1% and 48.5%) underlying the large uncertainties in absolute risk calculation. The ratio of risk between two techniques has often been proposed as a more robust assessment of risk than the absolute risk. We found that the ratio of risk between two techniques could also vary substantially considering the different approaches to risk estimation. Sometimes the ratio of risk between two techniques would range between values smaller and larger than one, which then translates into inconsistent results on the potential higher risk of one technique compared to another. We found however that the hybrid IMRT technique resulted in a systematic reduction of risk compared to the other techniques investigated even though the magnitude of this reduction varied substantially with the different approaches investigated. Based on the epidemiological data available, a reasonable approach to risk estimation would be to use organ-specific non-linear risk models applied to the dose distributions of organs within or near the treatment fields (lungs and contralateral breast in the case of breast radiotherapy) as the majority of radiation-induced secondary cancers are found in the beam-bordering regions.

Comparing interval breast cancer rates in Norway and North Carolina: results and challenges.

OBJECTIVE: To compare interval breast cancer rates (ICR) between a biennial organized screening programme in Norway and annual opportunistic screening in North Carolina (NC) for different conceptualizations of interval cancer. SETTING: Two regions with different screening practices and performance. METHODS: 620,145 subsequent screens (1996-2002) performed in women aged 50-69 and 1280 interval cancers were analysed. Various definitions and quantification methods for interval cancers were compared. RESULTS: ICR for one year follow-up were lower in Norway compared with NC both when the rate was based on all screens (0.54 versus 1.29 per 1000 screens), negative final assessments (0.54 versus 1.29 per 1000 screens), and negative screening assessments (0.53 versus 1.28 per 1000 screens). The rate of ductal carcinoma in situ was significantly lower in Norway than in NC for cases diagnosed in both the first and second year after screening. The distributions of histopathological tumour size and lymph node involvement in invasive cases did not differ between the two regions for interval cancers diagnosed during the first year after screening. In contrast, in the second year after screening, tumour characteristics remained stable in Norway but became prognostically more favorable in NC. CONCLUSION: Even when applying a common set of definitions of interval cancer, the ICR was lower in Norway than in NC. Different definitions of interval cancer did not influence the ICR within Norway or NC. Organization of screening and screening performance might be major contributors to the differences in ICR between Norway and NC.

Climatic and anthropogenic influence on the stable isotope record from bulk carbonates and ostracodes in Lake Neuchatel, Switzerland, during the last two millennia

Lake Neuchatel is a medium sized, hard-water lake, lacking varved sediments, situated in the western Swiss Lowlands at the foot of the Jura Mountains. Stable isotope data (delta(18)O and delta(13)C) from both bulk carbonate and ostracode calcite in an 81 cm long, radiocarbon-dated sediment core represent the last 1500 years of Lake Neuchatel's environmental history. Comparison between this isotopic and other palaeolimnologic data (mineralogical, geochemical, palynological, etc.) helps to differentiate between anthropogenic and natural factors most recently affecting the lake. An increase in lacustrine productivity (450-650AD ca), inferred from the positive trend in delta(13)C values of bulk carbonate, is related to medieval forest clearances and the associated nutrient budget changes. A negative trend in both the bulk carbonate and ostracode calcite delta(18)O values between approximately 1300 and 1500AD, is tentatively interpreted as due to a cooling in mean air temperature at the transition from the Medieval Warm Period to the Little Ice Age. Negative trends in bulk carbonate delta(18)O and delta(13)C values through the uppermost sediments, which have no equivalent in ostracode calcite isotopic values, are concomitant with the recent onset of eutrophication in the lake. Isotopic disequilibrium during calcite precipitation, probably due to kinetic factors in periods of high productivity is postulated as the mechanism to explain the associated negative isotopic trends, although the effect of a shift of the calcite precipitation towards the warmer months cannot be excluded.

Genetic diversity in caribou linked to past and future climate change

Climate-driven range fluctuations during the Pleistocene have continuously reshaped species distribution leading to populations of contrasting genetic diversity. Contemporary climate change is similarly influencing species distribution and population structure, with important consequences for patterns of genetic diversity and species' evolutionary potential1. Yet few studies assess the impacts of global climatic changes on intraspecific genetic variation2, 3, 4, 5. Here, combining analyses of molecular data with time series of predicted species distributions and a model of diffusion through time over the past 21 kyr, we unravel caribou response to past and future climate changes across its entire Holarctic distribution. We found that genetic diversity is geographically structured with two main caribou lineages, one originating from and confined to Northeastern America, the other originating from Euro-Beringia but also currently distributed in western North America. Regions that remained climatically stable over the past 21 kyr maintained a high genetic diversity and are also predicted to experience higher climatic stability under future climate change scenarios. Our interdisciplinary approach, combining genetic data and spatial analyses of climatic stability (applicable to virtually any taxon), represents a significant advance in inferring how climate shapes genetic diversity and impacts genetic structure.

Association of biomarkers of lipid modification with functional and morphological indices of coronary stenosis severity in stable coronary artery disease.

Biomarkers of blood lipid modification and oxidative stress have been associated with increased cardiovascular morbidity. We sought to determine whether these biomarkers were related to functional indices of stenosis severity among patients with stable coronary artery disease. We studied 197 consecutive patients with stable coronary artery disease due to single vessel disease. Fractional flow reserve (FFR) ≤ 0.80 was assessed as index of a functionally significant lesion. Serum levels of secretory phospholipase A2 (sPLA2) activity, secretory phospholipase A2 type IIA (sPLA2-IIA), myeloperoxydase (MPO), lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 (Lp-PLA2), and oxidized low-density lipoprotein (OxLDL) were assessed using commercially available assays. Patients with FFR > 0.8 had higher sPLA2 activity, sPLA2 IIA, and OxLDL levels than patients with FFR ≤ 0.8 (21.25 [16.03-27.28] vs 25.85 [20.58-34.63] U/mL, p < 0.001, 2.0 [1.5-3.4] vs 2.6 [2.0-3.4] ng/mL, p < 0.01; and 53.0 [36.0-71.0] vs 64.5 [50-89.25], p < 0.001 respectively). Patients with FFR > 0.80 had similar Lp-PLA2 and MPO levels versus those with FFR ≤ 0.8. sPLA2 activity, sPLA2 IIA significantly increased area under the curve over baseline characteristics to predict FFR ≤ 0.8 (0.67 to 0.77 (95 % confidence interval [CI]: 0.69-0.85) p < 0.01 and 0.67 to 0.77 (95 % CI: 0.69-0.84) p < 0.01, respectively). Serum sPLA2 activity as well as sPLA2-IIA level is related to functional characteristics of coronary stenoses in patients with stable coronary artery disease.

Height distributions of Scots pine sapling stands affected by retained tree and edge stand competition

Abstract

Simulation of surface waves in porous media

We present a novel numerical algorithm for the simulation of seismic wave propagation in porous media, which is particularly suitable for the accurate modelling of surface wave-type phenomena. The differential equations of motion are based on Biot's theory of poro-elasticity and solved with a pseudospectral approach using Fourier and Chebyshev methods to compute the spatial derivatives along the horizontal and vertical directions, respectively. The time solver is a splitting algorithm that accounts for the stiffness of the differential equations. Due to the Chebyshev operator the grid spacing in the vertical direction is non-uniform and characterized by a denser spatial sampling in the vicinity of interfaces, which allows for a numerically stable and accurate evaluation of higher order surface wave modes. We stretch the grid in the vertical direction to increase the minimum grid spacing and reduce the computational cost. The free-surface boundary conditions are implemented with a characteristics approach, where the characteristic variables are evaluated at zero viscosity. The same procedure is used to model seismic wave propagation at the interface between a fluid and porous medium. In this case, each medium is represented by a different grid and the two grids are combined through a domain-decomposition method. This wavefield decomposition method accounts for the discontinuity of variables and is crucial for an accurate interface treatment. We simulate seismic wave propagation with open-pore and sealed-pore boundary conditions and verify the validity and accuracy of the algorithm by comparing the numerical simulations to analytical solutions based on zero viscosity obtained with the Cagniard-de Hoop method. Finally, we illustrate the suitability of our algorithm for more complex models of porous media involving viscous pore fluids and strongly heterogeneous distributions of the elastic and hydraulic material properties.

Stable masking by H-2Dd cis ligand limits Ly49A relocalization to the site of NK cell/target cell contact.

Ly49A is an inhibitory receptor, which counteracts natural killer (NK) cell activation on the engagement with H-2D(d) (D(d)) MHC class I molecules (MHC-I) on target cells. In addition to binding D(d) on apposed membranes, Ly49A interacts with D(d) ligand expressed in the plane of the NK cells' membrane. Indeed, multivalent, soluble MHC-I ligand binds inefficiently to Ly49A unless the NK cells' D(d) complexes are destroyed. However, it is not known whether masked Ly49A remains constitutively associated with cis D(d) also during target cell interaction. Alternatively, it is possible that Ly49A has to be unmasked to significantly interact with its ligand on target cells. These two scenarios suggest distinct roles of Ly49A/D(d) cis interaction for NK cell function. Here, we show that Ly49A contributes to target cell adhesion and efficiently accumulates at synapses with D(d)-expressing target cells when NK cells themselves lack D(d). When NK cells express D(d), Ly49A no longer contributes to adhesion, and ligand-driven recruitment to the cellular contact site is strongly reduced. The destruction of D(d) complexes on NK cells, which unmasks Ly49A, is necessary and sufficient to restore Ly49A adhesive function and recruitment to the synapse. Thus, cis D(d) continuously sequesters a considerable fraction of Ly49A receptors, preventing efficient Ly49A recruitment to the synapse with D(d)+ target cells. The reduced number of Ly49A receptors that can functionally interact with D(d) on target cells explains the modest inhibitory capacity of Ly49A in D(d) NK cells. This property renders Ly49A NK cells more sensitive to react to diseased host cells.

Buccal dental microwear and stable isotopes of El Collado: A mesolithic site from Spain,

This study examines the correlation between buccal dental microwear and stable isotopes. The buccal surface of post-canine teeth casts from El Collado, the largest Mesolithic site in Spain, were examined under Scanning Electron Microscope; photomicrographs were taken from the middle third of the buccal surface with magnification 100X. Only six individuals passed the criteria for buccal dental microwear analysis. The photomicrographs were treated by adobe Photoshop 8.01 to cover an area 0.56 mm² of middle third of buccal surface, the output photomicrographs were digitized using Sigmascan Pro 5 by SPSS. Then the correlation between buccal microwear pattern and stable isotopes of the same individuals, of the previous study of Guixe et al., 2006, was examined using a Pearson test. Statistical analysis revealed that there is no significant correlation between stable isotopes and buccal dental microwear of the people of the Mesolithic site of El Collado. The historical and archaeological documentation suggest that the Mesolithic people tended to consume marine food. Fish-drying techniques were used during the Mesolithic period which allowed the introduction of dust and sand to the fish. These abrasive particles affected the buccal dental microwear pattern, so that no correlation between the isotopes and microwear may be expected. This also suggests that the buccal dental microwear pattern exceeds dietary reconstruction to reconstruct food processing techniques.

Crystal size distribution of periclase in contact metamorphic dolomite marbles from the southern Adamello Massif, Italy

Crystal size distributions (CSD) of periclase in contact metamorphic dolomite marbles are presented for two profiles near the Cima Uzza summit in the southern Adamello Massif (Italy). The database was combined with geochemical and petrological information to deduce the controls on the periclase-forming reaction. The contact metamorphic dolomite marbles are exposed at the contact of mafic intrusive rocks and are partially surrounded by them. Brucite is retrograde and pseudomorphs spherical periclase crystals. Prograde periclase growth is the consequence of limited infiltration of water-rich fluid at T near 605C. Stable isotope data show depletion in (13)C and (18)O over a narrow region (40 cm) near the magmatic contact, whereas the periclase-forming reaction front extends up to 4 m from the contact. CSD analyses along the two profiles show that the median grain size of the periclase crystals does not change, but that there is a progressively greater distribution of grain sizes, including a greater proportion of larger grains, with increasing distance from the contact. A qualitative model, based on the textural and geochemical data, attributes these variations in grain size to changing reaction affinities along a kinetically dispersed infiltration front. This study highlights the need to invoke disequilibrium processes for metamorphic mineral growth and expands the use of CSDs to systems of mineral formation driven by fluid infiltration.

Oxidation of methane at the CH4/H2O-(CO2) transition zone in the external part of the Central Alps, Switzerland: Evidence from stable isotope investigations

With the aim of understanding the mechanisms that control the metamorphic transition from the CH4- to the H2O-(CO2)-dominated fluid zone in the Helvetic domain of the Central Alps of Switzerland, fluid inclusions in quartz, illite ``crystallinity'' index, vitrinite reflectance, and the stable isotope compositions of vein and whole rock minerals and fluids trapped in quartz were investigated along four cross-sections. Increasing temperature during prograde metamorphism led to the formation of dry gas by hydrocarbon cracking in the CH4-zone. Fluid immiscibility in the H2O-CH4-(CO2)-NaCl system resulted in cogenetic, CH4- and H2O-dominated fluid inclusions. In the CH4-zone, fluids were trapped at temperatures <= 270 +/- 5 degrees C. The end of the CH4-zone is markedby a sudden increase of CO2 content in the gas phase of fluid inclusions. At temperatures > 270 +/- 5 degrees C, in the H2O-zone, the total amount of volatiles within the fluid decreased below 1 mol% with no immiscibility. This resulted m total homogenization temperatures of H2O-(CO2-CH4)-NaCl inclusions below 180 degrees C. Hydrogen isotope compositions of methane in fluid inclusion have delta D values of less than -100 parts per thousand in the CH4-zone, typical for an origin through cracking of higher hydrocarbons, but where the methane has not equilibrated with the pore water. delta D values of fluid inclusion water are around -40 parts per thousand., in isotopic equilibrium with phyllosilicates of the whole rocks. Within the CH4 to H2O(CO2) transition zone, delta D(H2O) values in fluid inclusions decrease to -130 parts per thousand interpreted to reflect the contribution of deuterium depleted water from methane oxidation. In the H2O-zone, delta D(H2O) values increase again towards an average of -30 parts per thousand which is again consistent with isotopic equilibrium with host-rock phyllosilicates. delta C-13 values of methane in fluid inclusions from the CH4-zone are around -27 parts per thousand in isotopic equilibrium with calcite in veins and whole rocks. The delta C-13(CH4) values decrease to less than -35 parts per thousand at the transition to the H2O-zone and are no longer in equilibrium with the carbonates in the whole rocks. delta C-13 values of CO, are variable but too low to be in equilibrium with the wall rock fluids, compatible with a contribution of CO2 from closed system oxidation of methane. Differences in isotopic composition between host-rock and Alpine fissure carbonate are generally small, suggesting that the amount of CO2 produced by oxidation of methane was small compared to the C-budget in the rocks and local pore fluids were buffered by the wall rocks during precipitation of calcite within the fissures. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

What matters for predicting spatial distributions of trees: techniques, data, or species' characteristics?

Data characteristics and species traits are expected to influence the accuracy with which species' distributions can be modeled and predicted. We compare 10 modeling techniques in terms of predictive power and sensitivity to location error, change in map resolution, and sample size, and assess whether some species traits can explain variation in model performance. We focused on 30 native tree species in Switzerland and used presence-only data to model current distribution, which we evaluated against independent presence-absence data. While there are important differences between the predictive performance of modeling methods, the variance in model performance is greater among species than among techniques. Within the range of data perturbations in this study, some extrinsic parameters of data affect model performance more than others: location error and sample size reduced performance of many techniques, whereas grain had little effect on most techniques. No technique can rescue species that are difficult to predict. The predictive power of species-distribution models can partly be predicted from a series of species characteristics and traits based on growth rate, elevational distribution range, and maximum elevation. Slow-growing species or species with narrow and specialized niches tend to be better modeled. The Swiss presence-only tree data produce models that are reliable enough to be useful in planning and management applications.

Calibrating predicted tree diameter distributions in Catalonia, Spain

Abstract

Apparent stable-isotope heterogeneities in gangue carbonates of the Mississippi Valley-type Zn-Pb deposits of San-Vicente, Central Peru

The aim of the present communication is to emphasize that some variations of the measured delta(13)C and delta(18)O values are apparent, and due to analytical interferences caused by the presence of sulfur and organosulfur compounds in the analyzed carbonates. This is particularly relevant for isotopic studies on carbonate-hosted mineral deposits, where the nearly ubiquitous association of the host carbonates with organic matter and sulfides can certainly affect the metallogenetic interpretations. In this work two methods were used to overcome the disturbing effects of sulfides and organic matter: (1) sample pretreatment following the method proposed by Charef and Sheppard (1984), combining the oxidation of organic matter with sodium hypochlorite and trapping of the sulfur species with silver phosphate; and (2) laser-based microprobe extraction. Apparent isotopic variations in sparry dolomite from a single hand sample of zebra ore from the MVT Zn-Pb deposit, San Vicente, central Peru, are as large as 6 parts per thousand delta(13)C and 4 parts per thousand delta(18)O. These variations are reduced to several tenths of a per mil when the samples are pretreated. A careful examination of the effects of treatment with NaOCl and/or Ag3PO4 in relation to the concentration of sulfide inclusions indicates that the main disturbing effects for delta(13)C values are the presence of sulfur species and organic matter, whereas the delta(18)O values are mainly affected by the presence of sulfides. Fine- and medium-grained replacement carbonates from MVT and other sediment-hosted base metal deposits are potentially the most affected during isotope analysis, due to the common presence of organic matter and sulfides. Using in situ laser microprobe techniques, it is possible to determine isotopic variations at a sub-millimeter scale. Our results show that laser extraction analysis allows a more precise sampling of the carbonate minerals, and minimizes contamination of the sample with sulfides and to some extent with intergrown organic matter. However, there is an isotopic shift associated with the laser extraction technique, of the order of 0.5-1 parts per thousand for delta(13)C and delta(18)O values.

Prediction of plant species distributions across six millennia.

The usefulness of species distribution models (SDMs) in predicting impacts of climate change on biodiversity is difficult to assess because changes in species ranges may take decades or centuries to occur. One alternative way to evaluate the predictive ability of SDMs across time is to compare their predictions with data on past species distributions. We use data on plant distributions, fossil pollen and current and mid-Holocene climate to test the ability of SDMs to predict past climate-change impacts. We find that species showing little change in the estimated position of their realized niche, with resulting good model performance, tend to be dominant competitors for light. Different mechanisms appear to be responsible for among-species differences in model performance. Confidence in predictions of the impacts of climate change could be improved by selecting species with characteristics that suggest little change is expected in the relationships between species occurrence and climate patterns.