Are mature smokers misinformed?

While there are many reasons to continue to smoke in spite of its consequences for health, the concern that many smoke because they misperceive the risks of smoking remains a focus of public discussion and motivates tobacco control policies and litigation. In this paper we investigate the relative accuracy of mature smokers' risk perceptions about future survival, and a range of morbidities and disabilities. Using data from the survey on smoking (SOS) conducted for this research, we compare subjective beliefs elicited from the SOS with corresponding individual-specific objective probabilities estimated from the health and retirement study. Overall, consumers in the age group studied, 50-70, are not overly optimistic in their perceptions of health risk. If anything, smokers tend to be relatively pessimistic about these risks. The finding that smokers are either well informed or pessimistic regarding a broad range of health risks suggests that these beliefs are not pivotal in the decision to continue smoking. Although statements by the tobacco companies may have been misleading and thus encouraged some to start smoking, we find no evidence that systematic misinformation about the health consequences of smoking inhibits quitting.

Burning a hole in the budget: tobacco spending and its crowd-out of other goods.

Smoking is an expensive habit. Smoking households spend, on average, more than $US1000 annually on cigarettes. When a family member quits, in addition to the former smoker's improved long-term health, families benefit because savings from reduced cigarette expenditures can be allocated to other goods. For households in which some members continue to smoke, smoking expenditures crowd-out other purchases, which may affect other household members, as well as the smoker. We empirically analyse how expenditures on tobacco crowd-out consumption of other goods, estimating the patterns of substitution and complementarity between tobacco products and other categories of household expenditure. We use the Consumer Expenditure Survey data for the years 1995-2001, which we complement with regional price data and state cigarette prices. We estimate a consumer demand system that includes several main expenditure categories (cigarettes, food, alcohol, housing, apparel, transportation, medical care) and controls for socioeconomic variables and other sources of observable heterogeneity. Descriptive data indicate that, comparing smokers to nonsmokers, smokers spend less on housing. Results from the demand system indicate that as the price of cigarettes rises, households increase the quantity of food purchased, and, in some samples, reduce the quantity of apparel and housing purchased.

The effects of sleep hypoxia on coagulant factors and hepatic inflammation in emphysematous rats.

OBJECTIVES: To develop a sleep hypoxia (SH) in emphysema (SHE) rat model and to explore whether SHE results in more severe hepatic inflammation than emphysema alone and whether the inflammation changes levels of coagulant/anticoagulant factors synthesized in the liver. METHODS: Seventy-five rats were put into 5 groups: SH control (SHCtrl), treated with sham smoke exposure (16 weeks) and SH exposure (12.5% O(2), 3 h/d, latter 8 weeks); emphysema control (ECtrl), smoke exposure and sham SH exposure (21% O(2)); short SHE (SHEShort), smoke exposure and short SH exposure (1.5 h/d); mild SHE (SHEMild), smoke exposure and mild SH exposure (15% O(2)); standard SHE (SHEStand), smoke exposure and SH exposure. Therefore, ECtrl, SHEShort, SHEMild and SHEStand group were among emphysematous groups. Arterial blood gas (ABG) data was obtained during preliminary tests. After exposure, hepatic inflammation (interleukin -6 [IL-6] mRNA and protein, tumor necrosis factor α [TNFα] mRNA and protein) and liver coagulant/anticoagulant factors (antithrombin [AT], fibrinogen [FIB] and Factor VIII [F VIII]) were evaluated. SPSS 11.5 software was used for statistical analysis. RESULTS: Characteristics of emphysema were obvious in emphysematous groups and ABGs reached SH criteria on hypoxia exposure. Hepatic inflammation parameters and coagulant factors are the lowest in SHCtrl and the highest in SHEStand while AT is the highest in SHCtrl and the lowest in SHEStand. Inflammatory cytokines of liver correlate well with coagulant factors positively and with AT negatively. CONCLUSIONS: When SH is combined with emphysema, hepatic inflammation and coagulability enhance each other synergistically and produce a more significant liver-derivative inflammatory and prothrombotic status.

Knowledge and perceptions among overweight and obese employees about lifestyle-related health benefit changes.

We investigated perceptions among overweight and obese state employees about changes to health insurance that were designed to reduce the scope of health benefits for employees who are obese or who smoke. Before implementation of health benefit plan changes, 658 state employees who were overweight (ie, those with a body mass index [BMI] of 25-29.9) or obese (ie, those with a BMI of > or = 30) enrolled in a weight-loss intervention study were asked about their attitudes and beliefs concerning the new benefit plan changes. Thirty-one percent of employees with a measured BMI of 40 or greater self-reported a BMI of less than 40, suggesting they were unaware that their current BMI would place them in a higher-risk benefit plan. More than half of all respondents reported that the new benefit changes would motivate them to make behavioral changes, but fewer than half felt confident in their ability to make changes. Respondents with a BMI of 40 or greater were more likely than respondents in lower BMI categories to oppose the new changes focused on obesity (P < .001). Current smokers were more likely than former smokers and nonsmokers to oppose the new benefit changes focused on tobacco use (P < .01). Participants represented a sample of employees enrolled in a weight-loss study, limiting generalizability to the larger population of state employees. Benefit plan changes that require employees who are obese and smoke to pay more for health care may motivate some, but not all, individuals to change their behaviors. Since confidence to lose weight was lowest among individuals in the highest BMI categories, more-intense intervention options may be needed to achieve desired health behavior changes.

Effect of peak inert-mode temperature on elemental carbon measured using thermal-optical analysis

Thermal-optical analysis is a conventional method for classifying carbonaceous aerosols as organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC). This article examines the effects of three different temperature protocols on the measured EC. For analyses of parallel punches from the same ambient sample, the protocol with the highest peak helium-mode temperature (870°C) gives the smallest amount of EC, while the protocol with the lowest peak helium-mode temperature (550°C) gives the largest amount of EC. These differences are observed when either sample transmission or reflectance is used to define the OC/EC split. An important issue is the effect of the peak helium-mode temperature on the relative rate at which different types of carbon with different optical properties evolve from the filter. Analyses of solvent-extracted samples are used to demonstrate that high temperatures (870°C) lead to premature EC evolution in the helium-mode. For samples collected in Pittsburgh, this causes the measured EC to be biased low because the attenuation coefficient of pyrolyzed carbon is consistently higher than that of EC. While this problem can be avoided by lowering the peak helium-mode temperature, analyses of wood smoke dominated ambient samples and levoglucosan-spiked filters indicate that too low helium-mode peak temperatures (550°C) allow non-light absorbing carbon to slip into the oxidizing mode of the analysis. If this carbon evolves after the OC/EC split, it biases the EC measurements high. Given the complexity of ambient aerosols, there is unlikely to be a single peak helium-mode temperature at which both of these biases can be avoided. Copyright © American Association for Aerosol Research.

The Exodus evacuation model applied to building evacuation scenarios

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the potential of the EXODUS evacuation model in building environments. The latest PC/workstation version of EXODUS is described and is also applied to a large hypothetical supermarket/restaurant complex measuring 50 m x 40 m. A range of scenarios is presented where population characteristics (such as size, individual travel speeds, and individual response times), and enclosure configuration characteristics (such as number of exits, size of exits, and opening times of exits) are varied. The results demonstrate a wide range of occupant behavior including overtaking, queuing, redirection, and conflict avoidance. Evacuation performance is measured by a number of model predicted parameters including individual exit flow rates, overall evacuation flow rates, total evacuation time, average evacuation time per occupant, average travel distance, and average wait time. The simulations highlight the profound impact that variations in individual travel speeds and occupant response times have in determining the overall evacuation performance. 1. Jin, T., and Yamada T., "Experimental Study of Human Behavior in Smoke Filled Corridors," Proceedings of The Second International Symposium on Fire Safety Science, 1988, pp. 511-519. 2. Galea, E.R., and Galparsoro, J.M.P., "EXODUS: An Evacuation Model for Mass Transport Vehicles," UK CAA Paper 93006 ISBN 086039 543X, CAA London, 1993. 3. Galea, E.R., and Galparsoro, J.M.P., "A Computer Based Simulation Model for the Prediction of Evacuation from Mass Transport Vehicles," Fire Safety Journal, Vol. 22, 1994, pp. 341-366. 4. Galea, E.R., Owen, M., and Lawrence, P., "Computer Modeling of Human Be havior in Aircraft Fire Accidents," to appear in the Proceedings of Combus tion Toxicology Symposium, CAMI, Oklahoma City, OK, 1995. 5. Kisko, T.M. and Francis, R.L., "EVACNET+: A Computer Program to Determine Optimal Building Evacuation Plans," Fire Safety Journal, Vol. 9, 1985, pp. 211-220. 6. Levin, B., "EXITT, A Simulation Model of Occupant Decisions and Actions in Residential Fires," Proceedings of The Second International Symposium on Fire Safety Science, 1988, pp. 561-570. 7. Fahy, R.F., "EXIT89: An Evacuation Model for High-Rise Buildings," Pro ceedings of The Third International Sym posium on Fire Safety Science, 1991, pp. 815-823. 8. Thompson, P.A., and Marchant, E.W., "A Computer Model for the Evacuation of Large Building Populations," Fire Safety Journal, Vol. 24, 1995, pp. 131-148. 9. Still, K., "New Computer System Can Predict Human Behavior Response to Building Fires," FIRE 84, 1993, pp. 40-41. 10. Ketchell, N., Cole, S.S., Webber, D.M., et.al., "The Egress Code for Human Move ment and Behavior in Emergency Evacu ations," Engineering for Crowd Safety (Smith, R.A., and Dickie, J.F., Eds.), Elsevier, 1993, pp. 361-370. 11. Takahashi, K., Tanaka, T. and Kose, S., "An Evacuation Model for Use in Fire Safety Design of Buildings," Proceedings of The Second International Symposium on Fire Safety Science, 1988, pp. 551- 560. 12. G2 Reference Manual, Version 3.0, Gensym Corporation, Cambridge, MA. 13. XVT Reference Manual, Version 3.0 XVT Software Inc., Boulder, CO. 14. Galea, E.R., "On the Field Modeling Approach to the Simulation of Enclosure Fires, Journal of Fire Protection Engineering, Vol. 1, No. 1, 1989, pp. 11-22. 15. Purser, D.A., "Toxicity Assessment of Combustion Products," SFPE Handbook of Fire Protection Engineering, National Fire Protection Association, Quincy, MA, pp. 1-200 - 1-245, 1988. 16. Hankin, B.D., and Wright, R.A., "Pas senger Flows in Subways," Operational Research Quarterly, Vol. 9, 1958, pp. 81-88. 17. HMSO, The Building Regulations 1991 - Approved Document B, section B 1 (1992 edition), HMSO publications, London, pp. 9-40. 18. Polus A., Schofer, J.L., and Ushpiz, A., "Pedestrian Flow and Level of Service," Journal of Transportation Engineering, Vol. 109, 1983, pp. 46-47. 19. Muir, H., Marrison, C., and Evans, A., "Aircraft Evacuations: the Effect of Passenger Motivation and Cabin Con figuration Adjacent to the Exit," CAA Paper 89019, ISBN 0 86039 406 9, 1989. 20. Muir, H., Private communication to appear as a CAA report, 1996.

A two-dimensional numerical investigation of the oscillatory flow behaviour in rectangular fire compartments with a single horizontal ceiling vent

This paper presents a comparison of fire field model predictions with experiment for the case of a fire within a compartment which is vented (buoyancydriven) to the outside by a single horizontal ceiling vent. Unlike previous work, the mathematical model does not employ a mixing ratio to represent vent temperatures but allows the model to predict vent temperatures a priori. The experiment suggests that the flow through the vent produces oscillatory behaviour in vent temperatures with puffs of smoke emerging from the fire compartment. This type of flow is also predicted by the fire field model. While the numerical predictions are in good qualitative agreement with observations, they overpredict the amplitudes of the temperature oscillations within the vent and also the compartment temperatures. The discrepancies are thought to be due to three-dimensional effects not accounted for in this model as well as using standard ‘practices’ normally used by the community with regards to discretization and turbulence models. Furthermore, it is important to note that the use of the k–ε turbulence model in a transient mode, as is used here, may have a significant effect on the results. The numerical results also suggest that a linear relationship exists between the frequency of vent temperature oscillation (n) and the heat release rate (Q0) of the type n∝Q0.290, similar to that observed for compartments with two horizontal vents. This relationship is predicted to occur only for heat release rates below a critical value. Furthermore, the vent discharge coefficient is found to vary in an oscillatory fashion with a mean value of 0.58. Below the critical heat release rate the mean discharge coefficient is found to be insensitive to fire size.

Modelling occupant interaction with fire conditions using the buildingEXODUS evacuation model

When evacuating through fire environments, the presence of smoke may not only have a physiological impact on the evacuees but may also lead occupants to adapt their evacuation strategy through the adoption of another exit. This paper attempts to introduce this type of adaptive behaviour within the buildingEXODUS evacuation model through enabling occupants to make decisions concerning the selection of the most viable available exit during an evacuation involving fire. The development of this adaptive behaviour requires the introduction of several new capabilities namely, the representation of the occupants’ familiarity with the structure, the behaviour of an occupant that is engulfed in smoke and the behaviour of an occupant that is faced with a smoke barrier. The appropriateness of the redirection decision is dependent upon behavioural data gathered from real fire incidents (in the UK and USA) that is used to construct the redirection probabilities. The implementation is shown to provide a more complex and arguably more realistic representation of this behaviour than that provided previously.

The application of fire and evacuation simulation in ship design

Fire and evacuation models with features such as the ability to realistically simulate the spread of heat and smoke and the human response to fire as well as the capability to model human performance in heeled orientations linked to a virtual reality environment that produces realistic visualisation of the modelled scenarios are now available and can be used to aid the engineer in assessing ship design and procedures. This paper describes the maritimeEXODUS ship evacuation and the SMARTFIRE fire simulation model and provides an example application demonstrating the use of the models used in pperforming fire and evacuation analysis for a large passenger ship partially based on the requirements of MSC circular 1033.

Fire safety engineering and ship design using advanced fire and evacuation simulation

When designing a new passenger ship or modifying an existing design, how do we ensure that the proposed design and crew emergency procedures are safe from an evacuation resulting from fire or other incident? In the wake of major maritime disasters such as the Scandinavian Star, Herald of Free Enterprise, Estonia and in light of the growth in the number of high density, high-speed ferries and large capacity cruise ships, issues concerning the evacuation of passengers and crew at sea are receiving renewed interest. Fire and evacuation models with features such as the ability to realistically simulate the spread of heat and smoke and the human response to fire as well as the capability to model human performance in heeled orientations linked to a virtual reality environment that produces realistic visualisations of the modelled scenarios are now available and can be used to aid the engineer in assessing ship design and procedures. This paper describes the maritimeEXODUS ship evacuation and the SMARTFIRE fire simulation model and provides an example application demonstrating the use of the models in performing fire and evacuation analysis for a large passenger ship partially based on the requirements of MSC circular 1033

Simulating the Swissair flight 111 in-flight fire using the CFD fire simulation software SMARTFIRE

At 8.18pm on 2 September 1998, Swissair Flight 111 (SR 111), took off from New York’s JFK airport bound for Geneva, Switzerland. Tragically, the MD-11 aircraft never arrived. According to the crash investigation report, published on 27 March 2003, electrical arcing in the ceiling void cabling was the most likely cause of the fire that brought down the aircraft. No one on board was aware of the disaster unfolding in the ceiling of the aircraft and, when a strange odour entered the cockpit, the pilots thought it was a problem with the air-conditioning system. Twenty minutes later, Swissair Flight 111 plunged into the Atlantic Ocean five nautical miles southwest of Peggy’s Cove, Nova Scotia, with the loss of all 229 lives on board. In this paper, the Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analysis of the in-flight fire that brought down SR 111 is described. Reconstruction of the wreckage disclosed that the fire pattern was extensive and complex in nature. The fire damage created significant challenges to identify the origin of the fire and to appropriately explain the heat damage observed. The SMARTFIRE CFD software was used to predict the “possible” behaviour of airflow as well as the spread of fire and smoke within SR 111. The main aims of the CFD analysis were to develop a better understanding of the possible effects, or lack thereof, of numerous variables relating to the in-flight fire. Possible fire and smoke spread scenarios were studied to see what the associated outcomes would be. This assisted investigators at Transportation Safety Board (TSB) of Canada, Fire & Explosion Group in assessing fire dynamics for cause and origin determination.

CFD fire simulation of the Swissair flight 111 in-flight fire - part II: fire spread analysis

In 1998, Swissair Flight I I I (SR111) developed an in-flight fire shortly after take-off which resulted in the loss of the aircraft, a McDonnell Douglas MD-I 1, and all passengers and crew. The Transportation Safety Board (TSB) of Canada, Fire and Explosion Group launched a four year investigation into the incident in an attempt to understand the cause and subsequent mechanisms which lead to the rapid spread of the in-flight fire. As part of this investigation, the SMARTFIRE Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) software was used to predict the 'possible' development of the fire and associated smoke movement. In this paper the CFD fire simulations are presented and model predictions compared with key findings from the investigation. The model predictions are shown to be consistent with a number of the investigation findings associated with the early stages of the fire development. The analysis makes use of simulated pre-fire airflow conditions within the MD-11 cockpit and above ceiling region presented in an earlier publication (Part 1) which was published in The Aeronautical Journal in January 2006(4).

Assessment of the impact of computed and measured fire environments on building evacuation using bench and real scale test data

This study investigates the use of computer modelled versus directly experimentally determined fire hazard data for assessing survivability within buildings using evacuation models incorporating Fractionally Effective Dose (FED) models. The objective is to establish a link between effluent toxicity, measured using a variety of small and large scale tests, and building evacuation. For the scenarios under consideration, fire simulation is typically used to determine the time non-survivable conditions develop within the enclosure, for example, when smoke or toxic effluent falls below a critical height which is deemed detrimental to evacuation or when the radiative fluxes reach a critical value leading to the onset of flashover. The evacuation calculation would the be used to determine whether people within the structure could evacuate before these critical conditions develop.

CARBON MONOXIDE AND PREGNANCY: A SEARCH FOR A POSSIBLE THERAPEUTIC IN THE TREATMENT OF PRE-ECLAMPSIA

Pre-eclampsia (PE) is a pregnancy disorder that affects roughly 5-7% of all pregnancies and is a leading cause of both maternal and fetal/neonatal morbidity and mortality. With no present cure for the disease, researchers are interested in the lower incidence of PE observed among the cigarette smoking pregnant population. However, women who use smokeless tobacco do not experience the same decreased incidence of PE, leading to hypothesis of protection against PE from the largest combustible product of cigarette smoke, carbon monoxide (CO). Studies evaluated levels of CO in PE women and found that they were statistically lower than those of healthy pregnancy. Researchers have found CO to possess many cytoprotective and regulatory properties and specifically within the placenta, it has been found to increase perfusion pressure, decrease oxidative stress, decreases ischemia/reperfusion induced apoptosis and maintain endothelial functioning. The idea for use of CO as a possible therapeutic for PE has thus become a real possibility. This study determined CO levels in pregnant women ± smoking as well as in PE women±smoking, as to discover a possible therapeutic range for future treatments. The best correlated automated CO measurement device with blood CO levels was determined, for use in future clinical studies. This thesis also sought a possible CO delivery concentration, in order to achieve the CO levels observed in the human correlation study. A threshold level of maternal CO exposure in a murine animal model was found, for which fetal and maternal negative toxicities were not observed. The results of this thesis lend a few more pieces to the complicated puzzle involving CO and PE and offer another step toward the possibility of a therapeutic treatment/prevention using this gaseous molecule.