Small- and waiting-time behaviour of the thin-film-equation

We consider the small-time behavior of interfaces of zero contact angle solutions to the thin-film equation. For a certain class of initial data, through asymptotic analyses, we deduce a wide variety of behavior for the free boundary point. These are supported by extensive numerical simulations. © 2007 Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics

Over-parameterised, uncertain 'mathematical marionettes' - How can we best use catchment water quality models? An example of an 80-year catchment-scale nutrient balance

The Integrated Catchment Model of Nitrogen (INCA-N) was applied to the River Lambourn, a Chalk river-system in southern England. The model's abilities to simulate the long-term trend and seasonal patterns in observed stream water nitrate concentrations from 1920 to 2003 were tested. This is the first time a semi-distributed, daily time-step model has been applied to simulate such a long time period and then used to calculate detailed catchment nutrient budgets which span the conversion of pasture to arable during the late 1930s and 1940s. Thus, this work goes beyond source apportionment and looks to demonstrate how such simulations can be used to assess the state of the catchment and develop an understanding of system behaviour. The mass-balance results from 1921, 1922, 1991, 2001 and 2002 are presented and those for 1991 are compared to other modelled and literature values of loads associated with nitrogen soil processes and export. The variations highlighted the problem of comparing modelled fluxes with point measurements but proved useful for identifying the most poorly understood inputs and processes thereby providing an assessment of input data and model structural uncertainty. The modelled terrestrial and instream mass-balances also highlight the importance of the hydrological conditions in pollutant transport. Between 1922 and 2002, increased inputs of nitrogen from fertiliser, livestock and deposition have altered the nitrogen balance with a shift from possible reduction in soil fertility but little environmental impact in 1922, to a situation of nitrogen accumulation in the soil, groundwater and instream biota in 2002. In 1922 and 2002 it was estimated that approximately 2 and 18 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) respectively were exported from the land to the stream. The utility of the approach and further considerations for the best use of models are discussed. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Over-parameterised, uncertain 'mathematical marionettes' - How can we best use catchment water quality models? An example of an 80-year catchment-scale nutrient balance

The Integrated Catchment Model of Nitrogen (INCA-N) was applied to the River Lambourn, a Chalk river-system in southern England. The model's abilities to simulate the long-term trend and seasonal patterns in observed stream water nitrate concentrations from 1920 to 2003 were tested. This is the first time a semi-distributed, daily time-step model has been applied to simulate such a long time period and then used to calculate detailed catchment nutrient budgets which span the conversion of pasture to arable during the late 1930s and 1940s. Thus, this work goes beyond source apportionment and looks to demonstrate how such simulations can be used to assess the state of the catchment and develop an understanding of system behaviour. The mass-balance results from 1921, 1922, 1991, 2001 and 2002 are presented and those for 1991 are compared to other modelled and literature values of loads associated with nitrogen soil processes and export. The variations highlighted the problem of comparing modelled fluxes with point measurements but proved useful for identifying the most poorly understood inputs and processes thereby providing an assessment of input data and model structural uncertainty. The modelled terrestrial and instream mass-balances also highlight the importance of the hydrological conditions in pollutant transport. Between 1922 and 2002, increased inputs of nitrogen from fertiliser, livestock and deposition have altered the nitrogen balance with a shift from possible reduction in soil fertility but little environmental impact in 1922, to a situation of nitrogen accumulation in the soil, groundwater and instream biota in 2002. In 1922 and 2002 it was estimated that approximately 2 and 18 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) respectively were exported from the land to the stream. The utility of the approach and further considerations for the best use of models are discussed. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A comparison of two time-domain analysis procedures in the determination of VO2 kinetics by pseudorandom binary sequence exercise testing

The purpose of this study was to apply and compare two time-domain analysis procedures in the determination of oxygen uptake (VO2) kinetics in response to a pseudorandom binary sequence (PRBS) exercise test. PRBS exercise tests have typically been analysed in the frequency domain. However, the complex interpretation of frequency responses may have limited the application of this procedure in both sporting and clinical contexts, where a single time measurement would facilitate subject comparison. The relative potential of both a mean response time (MRT) and a peak cross-correlation time (PCCT) was investigated. This study was divided into two parts: a test-retest reliability study (part A), in which 10 healthy male subjects completed two identical PRBS exercise tests, and a comparison of the VO2 kinetics of 12 elite endurance runners (ER) and 12 elite sprinters (SR; part B). In part A, 95% limits of agreement were calculated for comparison between MRT and PCCT. The results of part A showed no significant difference between test and retest as assessed by MRT [mean (SD) 42.2 (4.2) s and 43.8 (6.9) s] or by PCCT [21.8 (3.7) s and 22.7 (4.5) s]. Measurement error (%) was lower for MRT in comparison with PCCT (16% and 25%, respectively). In part B of the study, the VO2 kinetics of ER were significantly faster than those of SR, as assessed by MRT [33.4 (3.4) s and 39.9 (7.1) s, respectively; P<0.01] and PCCT [20.9 (3.8) s and 24.8 (4.5) s; P < 0.05]. It is possible that either analysis procedure could provide a single test measurement Of VO2 kinetics; however, the greater reliability of the MRT data suggests that this method has more potential for development in the assessment Of VO2 kinetics by PRBS exercise testing.

A classification system for delirium subtyping with the use of a commercial mobility monitor

The usefulness of motor subtypes of delirium is unclear due to inconsistency in subtyping methods and a lack of validation with objective measures of activity. The activity of 40 patients was measured over 24 h with a commercial accelerometer-based activity monitor. Accelerometry data from patients with DSM-IV delirium that were readily divided into hyperactive, hypoactive and mixed motor subtypes, were used to create classification trees that were Subsequently applied to the remaining cohort to define motoric subtypes. The classification trees used the periods of sitting/lying, standing, stepping and number of postural transitions as measured by the activity monitor as determining factors from which to classify the delirious cohort. The use of a classification system shows how delirium subtypes can be categorised in relation to overall activity and postural changes, which was one of the most discriminating measures examined. The classification system was also implemented to successfully define other patient motoric subtypes. Motor subtypes of delirium defined by observed ward behaviour differ in electronically measured activity levels. Crown Copyright (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Learning and natal host influence host preference, handling time and sex allocation behaviour in a pupal parasitoid

The host choice and sex allocation decisions of a foraging female parasitoid will have an enormous influence on the life-history characteristics of her offspring. The pteromalid Pachycrepoideus vindemiae is a generalist idiobiont pupal parasitoid of many species of cyclorrhaphous Diptera. Wasps reared in Musca domestica were larger, had higher attack rates and greater male mating success than those reared in Drosophila melanogaster. In no-choice situations, naive female R vindemiae took significantly less time to accept hosts conspecific with their natal host. Parasitoids that emerged from M. domestica pupae spent similar amounts of time ovipositing in both D. melanogaster and M. domestica. Those parasitoids that had emerged from D. melanogaster spent significantly longer attacking M. domestica pupae. The host choice behaviour of female P. vindemiae was influenced by an interaction between natal host and experience. Female R vindemiae reared in M. domestica only showed a preference among hosts when allowed to gain experience attacking M. domestica, preferentially attacking that species. Similarly, female parasitoids reared on D. melanogaster only showed a preference among hosts when allowed to gain experience attacking D. melanogaster, again preferentially attacking that species. Wasp natal host also influenced sex allocation behaviour. While wasps from both hosts oviposited more females in the larger host, M. domestica, wasps that emerged from M. domestica had significantly more male-biased offspring sex ratios. These results indicate the importance of learning and natal host size in determining R vindemiae attack rates. mating success, host preference and sex allocation behaviour, all critical components of parasitoid fitness.

Use of the statistical properties of the wavelet-transform coefficients for optimization of integration time in Fourier transform spectrometry

We show that an analysis of the mean and variance of discrete wavelet coefficients of coaveraged time-domain interferograms can be used as a specification for determining when to stop coaveraging. We also show that, if a prediction model built in the wavelet domain is used to determine the composition of unknown samples, a stopping criterion for the coaveraging process can be developed with respect to the uncertainty tolerated in the prediction.

A three-regime model of speculative behaviour: modelling the evolution of the S&P 500 composite index

We examine whether a three-regime model that allows for dormant, explosive and collapsing speculative behaviour can explain the dynamics of the S&P 500. We extend existing models of speculative behaviour by including a third regime that allows a bubble to grow at a steady rate, and propose abnormal volume as an indicator of the probable time of bubble collapse. We also examine the financial usefulness of the three-regime model by studying a trading rule formed using inferences from it, whose use leads to higher Sharpe ratios and end of period wealth than from employing existing models or a buy-and-hold strategy.

Exploring the relationship between listening development and strategy use

This paper reports on an investigation into the development of the listening proficiency and strategic behaviour of 15 lower-intermediate learners of French in England. We consider whether listeners remain in the same listening proficiency group after six months, and whether changes in strategy use are related to movement or non-movement between listening proficiency groups. We also examine whether learners’ strategic behaviour reflects their teachers’ approaches to listening. Data were gathered at two time points from a recall protocol which learners completed after listening to short passages and from verbal reports made by learners while they completed a multiple choice listening task. Teacher interviews provided information on how listening had been presented in learners' classrooms. We detected little movement by students across the listening proficiency groups between the two time points. In spite of some changes in frequency of strategy use, we also observed stability in manner of use by some learners. Differences in strategy use were more evident between groups (non-movers, improvers and decliners) than between uses from Time 1 to Time 2. We conclude by discussing the pedagogical implications of these findings.

Land re-use, complexity and actor-networks: a framework for research

This paper will present a conceptual framework for the examination of land redevelopment based on a complex systems/networks approach. As Alvin Toffler insightfully noted, modern scientific enquiry has become exceptionally good at splitting problems into pieces but has forgotten how to put the pieces back together. Twenty-five years after his remarks, governments and corporations faced with the requirements of sustainability are struggling to promote an ‘integrated’ or ‘holistic’ approach to tackling problems. Despite the talk, both practice and research provide few platforms that allow for ‘joined up’ thinking and action. With socio-economic phenomena, such as land redevelopment, promising prospects open up when we assume that their constituents can make up complex systems whose emergent properties are more than the sum of the parts and whose behaviour is inherently difficult to predict. A review of previous research shows that it has mainly focused on idealised, ‘mechanical’ views of property development processes that fail to recognise in full the relationships between actors, the structures created and their emergent qualities. When reality failed to live up to the expectations of these theoretical constructs then somebody had to be blamed for it: planners, developers, politicians. However, from a ‘synthetic’ point of view the agents and networks involved in property development can be seen as constituents of structures that perform complex processes. These structures interact, forming new more complex structures and networks. Redevelopment then can be conceptualised as a process of transformation: a complex system, a ‘dissipative’ structure involving developers, planners, landowners, state agencies etc., unlocks the potential of previously used sites, transforms space towards a higher order of complexity and ‘consumes’ but also ‘creates’ different forms of capital in the process. Analysis of network relations point toward the ‘dualism’ of structure and agency in these processes of system transformation and change. Insights from actor network theory can be conjoined with notions of complexity and chaos to build an understanding of the ways in which actors actively seek to shape these structures and systems, whilst at the same time are recursively shaped by them in their strategies and actions. This approach transcends the blame game and allows for inter-disciplinary inputs to be placed within a broader explanatory framework that does away with many past dichotomies. Better understanding of the interactions between actors and the emergent qualities of the networks they form can improve our comprehension of the complex socio-spatial phenomena that redevelopment comprises. The insights that this framework provides when applied in UK institutional investment into redevelopment are considered to be significant.

Reducing contamination by exposure plus safety behaviour

Background and objectives: It has been proposed that the judicious use of safety behaviour can facilitate improvements in the acceptability of cognitive behaviour therapy (CBT). It was decided to explore the possibility of facilitating CBT by introducing a form of safety behaviour.We sought to assess the degree to which Exposure plus Safety Behaviour (E þ SB) is an effective intervention for contamination fears. Methods: A comparison was made between the effects of a control condition (Exposure and Response Prevention; ERP) and an experimental condition (Exposure plus Safety Behaviour; E þ SB) in which each exposure to a contaminant was followed by the use of a hygienic wipe in a sample of (n ¼ 80) undergraduate students. In session one, each participant touched a confirmed contaminant 20 times. After each exposure participants were asked to report their feelings of contamination, fear, disgust, and danger. In the second session, two weeks later, the same procedure was carried out for a further 16 trials. Results: The ERP and the E þ SB conditions both produced large, significant and stable reductions in contamination. Significant reductions in fear, danger and disgust were also reported in both conditions. Limitations: The treatment was provided to an analogue sample and over two sessions. Conclusions: The use of hygienic wipes, the safety behaviour used in this experiment, did not preclude significant reductions in contamination, disgust, fear and danger. If it is replicated and extended over a longer time-frame, this finding may enable practitioners to enhance the acceptability of cognitive behavioural treatments and boost their effectiveness.