902 resultados para Simulation with multiple Consumers Profiles
Resumo:
The incidence of diabetic end-stage renal failure (ESRF) varies worldwide and risk factors have been demonstrated in several populations. The objective of the present study was to identify possible factors associated with the risk of development of ESRF in patients with diabetes mellitus (DM). Two groups of diabetic subjects were included in a case-control study: 1) one group was submitted to renal replacement therapies, attending dialysis centers in São Paulo city and 2) the same number of controls without clinical nephropathy (two negative dipstick tests for urine protein), matched for duration of DM, were obtained from an outpatient clinic. A standardized questionnaire was used by a single investigator and additional data were obtained from the medical records of the patients. A total of 290 diabetic patients from 33 dialysis centers were identified, and 266 questionnaires were considered to contain reliable information. Male/female ratios were 1.13 for ESRF and 0.49 for the control group. A higher frequency of men was observed in the ESRF group when compared with controls (53 vs 33%, P<0.00001), although logistic regression analysis did not confirm an association of gender and diabetic nephropathy (DN). Similar proportions of non-white individuals were found for both groups. Patients with insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (IDDM) were less common than patients with non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (NIDDM), particularly in the control group (3.4 vs 26.3%, P<0.00001, for controls and ESRF patients, respectively); this type of DM was associated with a higher risk of ESRF than NIDDM, as determined by univariate analysis or logistic regression (OR = 4.1). Hypertension by the time of the DM diagnosis conferred a 1.4-fold higher risk of ESRF (P = 0.04), but no difference was observed concerning the presence of a family history. Association between smoking and alcohol habits and increased risk was observed (OR = 4.5 and 5.9, respectively, P<0.001). A 2.4-fold higher risk of ESRF was demonstrated in patients with multiple hospitalizations due to DM decompensation, which suggested poor metabolic control. Photocoagulation and neuropathy were found to be strongly associated with ESRF but not with macrovascular disease. Data collected in our country reinforce the higher risk attributable to IDDM and the association between hypertension and the progression of DN. Indirect evidence for an association with metabolic control is also suggested
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Malaria continues to infect millions and kill hundreds of thousands of people worldwide each year, despite over a century of research and attempts to control and eliminate this infectious disease. Challenges such as the development and spread of drug resistant malaria parasites, insecticide resistance to mosquitoes, climate change, the presence of individuals with subpatent malaria infections which normally are asymptomatic and behavioral plasticity in the mosquito hinder the prospects of malaria control and elimination. In this thesis, mathematical models of malaria transmission and control that address the role of drug resistance, immunity, iron supplementation and anemia, immigration and visitation, and the presence of asymptomatic carriers in malaria transmission are developed. A within-host mathematical model of severe Plasmodium falciparum malaria is also developed. First, a deterministic mathematical model for transmission of antimalarial drug resistance parasites with superinfection is developed and analyzed. The possibility of increase in the risk of superinfection due to iron supplementation and fortification in malaria endemic areas is discussed. The model results calls upon stakeholders to weigh the pros and cons of iron supplementation to individuals living in malaria endemic regions. Second, a deterministic model of transmission of drug resistant malaria parasites, including the inflow of infective immigrants, is presented and analyzed. The optimal control theory is applied to this model to study the impact of various malaria and vector control strategies, such as screening of immigrants, treatment of drug-sensitive infections, treatment of drug-resistant infections, and the use of insecticide-treated bed nets and indoor spraying of mosquitoes. The results of the model emphasize the importance of using a combination of all four controls tools for effective malaria intervention. Next, a two-age-class mathematical model for malaria transmission with asymptomatic carriers is developed and analyzed. In development of this model, four possible control measures are analyzed: the use of long-lasting treated mosquito nets, indoor residual spraying, screening and treatment of symptomatic, and screening and treatment of asymptomatic individuals. The numerical results show that a disease-free equilibrium can be attained if all four control measures are used. A common pitfall for most epidemiological models is the absence of real data; model-based conclusions have to be drawn based on uncertain parameter values. In this thesis, an approach to study the robustness of optimal control solutions under such parameter uncertainty is presented. Numerical analysis of the optimal control problem in the presence of parameter uncertainty demonstrate the robustness of the optimal control approach that: when a comprehensive control strategy is used the main conclusions of the optimal control remain unchanged, even if inevitable variability remains in the control profiles. The results provide a promising framework for the design of cost-effective strategies for disease control with multiple interventions, even under considerable uncertainty of model parameters. Finally, a separate work modeling the within-host Plasmodium falciparum infection in humans is presented. The developed model allows re-infection of already-infected red blood cells. The model hypothesizes that in severe malaria due to parasite quest for survival and rapid multiplication, the Plasmodium falciparum can be absorbed in the already-infected red blood cells which accelerates the rupture rate and consequently cause anemia. Analysis of the model and parameter identifiability using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods is presented.
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Assuming that the IS6110-restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) changes at a constant rate of 3.2 years, this methodology was applied to demonstrate, for the first time, variant patterns of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) in multiple isolates obtained at short time intervals from sputum and blood of an HIV+ patient with multiple admissions to the Emergency Room and to the multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) Reference Center of a secondary-care hospital in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. In sputum, the IS6110-RFLP appeared in isolates with two variant patterns with 10 and 13 IS6110 copies. However, blood presented only the pattern corresponding to 10 copies, suggesting compartmentalization. With regard to the exact match of 10 of 13 bands, this may be a subpopulation with the same clonal origin and this may be related to the IS6110 transposition. A susceptibility test demonstrated an MDR profile (INH R, RIF R, SM R, and EMB R), with the sputum isolate also exhibiting EMB S (R = resistant; S = sensitive). A gene mutation confirmed resistance only to streptomycin. There was agreement between the results of the phenotypic test and the clinical response to MDR-TB treatment, suggesting serious implications with regard to treatment administration based exclusively on molecular methods, and calling attention to the fact that more effective control strategies against the emergence of MDR strains must be implemented by the TB control program to prevent transmission of MDR-MTB strains at health facilities in areas highly endemic for TB.
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Genetic abnormalities are critical prognostic factors for patients diagnosed with multiple myeloma (MM). This retrospective, multicenter study aimed to contribute with the genetic and clinical characterization of MM patients in a country with continental dimensions such as Brazil. Genetic abnormalities were assessed by cIg-fluorescent in situ hybridization (cIg-FISH) in a series of 152 MM patients (median age 55 years, 58.5% men). Overall, genetic abnormalities were detected in 52.7% (80/152) of patients. A 14q32 rearrangement was detected in 33.5% (n=51), including t(11;14), t(4;14) and t(14;16) in 18.4, 14.1, and 1% of cases, respectively. del(13q) was identified in 42.7% (n=65) of patients, of whom 49.2% (32/65) presented a concomitant 14q32 rearrangement. del(17p) had a frequency of 5.2% (n=8). del(13q) was associated with high plasma cell burden (≥50%, P=0.02), and del(17p) with advanced ISS stages (P=0.05) and extramedullary disease (P=0.03). t(4;14) was associated with advanced Durie-Salmon stages (P=0.008), renal insufficiency (P=0.01) and was more common in patients over 60 years old. This study reports similar frequencies of genetic abnormalities to most series worldwide, whereas the t(14;16) and del(17p), two high risk factors for newly diagnosed patients, exhibited lower frequencies. Our results expand the knowledge on the molecular features of MM in Brazil, a country where innovative therapies that could overcome a poor prognosis for some genetic abnormalities are not always available.
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It is estimated that five to ten percent of children experience sensory motor difficulties that result in various learnlng disabilitiies , among them. inabllity to output Information on paper in the appropriate manner (Ayres ,1985). The relationship between sensorimotorabillty and handwriting is well documented in the literature (Freeman,1917; Townsend , 1951; Nlkola-Ll sa, 1987). While much of the literature is inconclusive, there are findings to suggest that muitisensory handwriting programmes are an effective approach to improvlng writing abIlity in these chlldren. For a number of years, Occupational Therapists have been involved in the remediation of handwriting utllizing , amongst other approaches . multisensory programmes. While subjective assessments of effectiveness have been extremerly positive. scientIfic evaluation has been minimal . If further intervention in this area is to occur, it Is essential that the profession be able to justify the existence of such programmes . The purpose of this study was to examine what effects a multlsensory writing prog~am would have on the curslve writing ability of chlldren with sensorimotor dlfficulties. A single case with multiple baselines across be havlours design was used , with the behavlours being cursive writing abilIty of fIve distInct letter groups. The fIve groups were taught in random order, one group every two weeks , In a one-hour session. Repeated measurements of writing speed and qualIty for each letter group were made. This design was repeated over three other cases . Results of the study yielded statistical signifi cance in trend changes In specIfic letter groups for all of the chlldren following interventlon. One child achieved statistical significance In the overall change In quality , while none of the children achieved overall statistical significance In speed score changes . Teacher reports and an assessment of written language prior to and following the program suggest that Intervention may have had a positive effect on self-confidence in written output, and on the maturlty of written expression in some of the cases . Further research in this field is needed to validate the continual use of multisensory writing programmes by Occupational Theraplsts worklng with this specific population and to provide some directlon with regards to the Integration of multlsensory writing programmes within the regular academic remedial programme .
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Abstract This research takes the lens of social reproduction as a starting point for an examination of the effects of recent social welfare reforms on the lives o.fsingle mothers. As the cumulative effects o.f diminishing state provided benefits take hold, tensions are heightened as single mothers internalize the insecurity of earning an income in 11 capitalist labour market, while trying to carry out all that is involved in social reproduction with inadequate means of survival. Through interviewing single mothers who are the recipients of mUltiple state provided benefits (social assistance, student loans, subsidized housing and subsidized childcare), this thesis illuminates the cOl1linued regulation of women in an effort to assure that social reproduction is occurring at the lowest cost possible. State provided benefits are set lip in such a way that it is near impossible for single mothers to make ends meet without entering the labour force or entering into co-residential relationships. This push towards the labour force and/or marriage via punitive welfare policies illuminates the devaluation of the labour that is done at home. Through interviewing 5 single mothers, I will demonstrate the extensive labour that goes into maintaining their households. In addition .J case managers are interviewed. The employees of social assistance, subsidized hOllsing, subsidized childcare and student loans, have much agency in deeming who is worthy of receiving benefits. The employees of these agencies have the ability to make these women's lives easier or more complicated by how the workers interpret the policy regulations. Social policies are of paramount importance in the quest for women's equality and thus have consequences for how women's daily lives are organized. The rules and regulations that govern the individual policies are complex and bureaucratic and have implications for the ways in which women must organize their lives in order to survive. The shifts in social policy have been guided by neo-liberal assumptions with a focus on individual responsibility and a market-modeled welfare state. The caring work that is involved in raising children to be productive in a capitalist society is ignored or devalued in current policies. The emphasis in each polic.:v is on getting women who receive benefits into the paid work force, with little facilitation or investment into the caring work these women do on a daily basis that in turn supports capitalism. Policies, such as social assistance, subsidized housing, subsidized childcare and student loans, are set up in such a way that ignores the reality of women's day-to-day lives and devalues the necessary work done at home. It takes an abundance of labour and strategizing for women to seek out necessary means of survival, labour that is amplified when a woman is dealing with mUltiple slate provided benefits.
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Ordered gene problems are a very common classification of optimization problems. Because of their popularity countless algorithms have been developed in an attempt to find high quality solutions to the problems. It is also common to see many different types of problems reduced to ordered gene style problems as there are many popular heuristics and metaheuristics for them due to their popularity. Multiple ordered gene problems are studied, namely, the travelling salesman problem, bin packing problem, and graph colouring problem. In addition, two bioinformatics problems not traditionally seen as ordered gene problems are studied: DNA error correction and DNA fragment assembly. These problems are studied with multiple variations and combinations of heuristics and metaheuristics with two distinct types or representations. The majority of the algorithms are built around the Recentering- Restarting Genetic Algorithm. The algorithm variations were successful on all problems studied, and particularly for the two bioinformatics problems. For DNA Error Correction multiple cases were found with 100% of the codes being corrected. The algorithm variations were also able to beat all other state-of-the-art DNA Fragment Assemblers on 13 out of 16 benchmark problem instances.
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Les infections à Salmonella Typhimurium constituent un problème de taille pour l’industrie porcine et la santé publique car cet animal est un réservoir pour les infections chez l’homme. De plus, on observe, chez des souches appartenant au lysotype (LT) 104, des résistances multiples aux antimicrobiens associées à des septicémies chez les porcs en engraissement, ce qui peut contribuer à la contamination des carcasses. Il faut donc contrôler l’infection au niveau du troupeau. Pour ce faire, il importe donc de mieux caractériser ces souches, comprendre la pathogénie de l’infection et identifier des facteurs de virulence. L’objectif principal de cette étude était de caractériser des isolats de S. Typhimurium provenant de porcs septicémiques et de les comparer avec ceux de porcs sains. Une banque d’isolats provenant de porcs septicémiques (ASC) et de porcs sains à l’abattoir (SSC) était constituée. Le lysotype des isolats a été identifié et ceux-ci ont été caractérisés selon le profil de résistance aux antimicrobiens, le SDS-PAGE et l’immunobuvardage et le PFGE. Chez les isolats ASC, LT 104 représentait 36.4% des isolats et chez les isolats SSC la proportion était de 51.5%. Les isolats pouvaient être résistants jusqu’à douze antimicrobiens, peu importe leur origine. Il n’a toutefois pas été possible d’associer une protéine spécifique au groupe d’isolats ASC. Parmi les souches LT 104, plusieurs groupes génétiques ont été identifiés. Les différentes étapes de la pathogénie de Salmonella ont ensuite été évaluées, dont l’adhésion et l’invasion des isolats des deux banques sur des cellules intestinales humaines. Nos résultats ont démontré que les isolats ASC avaient un pouvoir accru d’invasion comparés aux isolats SSC (P=0.003). Pour un sous-groupe d’isolats sélectionnés selon leur taux d’invasion, des tests de phagocytose, d’apoptose et d’adhésion au mucus intestinal ont été effectués en utilisant la cytométrie en flux. La survie des bactéries après la phagocytose a aussi été évaluée et la méthode MATS a été utilisée pour évaluer l'adhésion aux solvants. Les pourcentages de phagocytose chez les isolats SSC par les monocytes porcins étaient plus élevés que chez les isolats ASC à 15 minutes (P=0.02). Nous n’avons trouvé aucune différence significative pour les autres méthodes utilisées. Nous avons ensuite comparé le génome d’un isolat ASC (#36) à celui d’un isolat SSC (#1) par le SSH pour identifier des facteurs de virulence potentiels. Des clones correspondant à des gènes retrouvés sur le chromosome ainsi que sur des plasmides ont été identifiés. Ces résultats nous ont dirigés vers l’analyse des profils plasmidiques de tous les isolats. Les différents profils étaient retrouvés autant chez les isolats ASC que chez les isolats SSC. Deux profils (PL14 et PL20) étaient observés plus fréquemment chez les isolats LT 104 que chez les isolats d’autres lysotypes (P=0.01 et P=0.01, respectivement). Le séquençage d’un des plasmides de l’isolat ASC, démontrait la présence d’informations génétiques codant pour la réplication et une bêta-galactosidase-α. Il serait intéressant de préciser le rôle exact de ces gènes dans l’infection. Nos travaux suggèrent que les isolats de S. Typhimurium provenant de porcs septicémiques se distinguent par un pouvoir d’invasion accru ainsi que par des taux de phagocytose plus faibles dans les phases initiales de l’infection. Cette étude aura donc permis d’accroître les connaissances sur la pathogénie des infections à S. Typhimurium chez le porc.
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Nous étudions la gestion de centres d'appels multi-compétences, ayant plusieurs types d'appels et groupes d'agents. Un centre d'appels est un système de files d'attente très complexe, où il faut généralement utiliser un simulateur pour évaluer ses performances. Tout d'abord, nous développons un simulateur de centres d'appels basé sur la simulation d'une chaîne de Markov en temps continu (CMTC), qui est plus rapide que la simulation conventionnelle par événements discrets. À l'aide d'une méthode d'uniformisation de la CMTC, le simulateur simule la chaîne de Markov en temps discret imbriquée de la CMTC. Nous proposons des stratégies pour utiliser efficacement ce simulateur dans l'optimisation de l'affectation des agents. En particulier, nous étudions l'utilisation des variables aléatoires communes. Deuxièmement, nous optimisons les horaires des agents sur plusieurs périodes en proposant un algorithme basé sur des coupes de sous-gradients et la simulation. Ce problème est généralement trop grand pour être optimisé par la programmation en nombres entiers. Alors, nous relaxons l'intégralité des variables et nous proposons des méthodes pour arrondir les solutions. Nous présentons une recherche locale pour améliorer la solution finale. Ensuite, nous étudions l'optimisation du routage des appels aux agents. Nous proposons une nouvelle politique de routage basé sur des poids, les temps d'attente des appels, et les temps d'inoccupation des agents ou le nombre d'agents libres. Nous développons un algorithme génétique modifié pour optimiser les paramètres de routage. Au lieu d'effectuer des mutations ou des croisements, cet algorithme optimise les paramètres des lois de probabilité qui génèrent la population de solutions. Par la suite, nous développons un algorithme d'affectation des agents basé sur l'agrégation, la théorie des files d'attente et la probabilité de délai. Cet algorithme heuristique est rapide, car il n'emploie pas la simulation. La contrainte sur le niveau de service est convertie en une contrainte sur la probabilité de délai. Par après, nous proposons une variante d'un modèle de CMTC basé sur le temps d'attente du client à la tête de la file. Et finalement, nous présentons une extension d'un algorithme de coupe pour l'optimisation stochastique avec recours de l'affectation des agents dans un centre d'appels multi-compétences.
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La maladie de Parkinson (PD) a été uniquement considérée pour ses endommagements sur les circuits moteurs dans le cerveau. Il est maintenant considéré comme un trouble multisystèmique, avec aspects multiples non moteurs y compris les dommages intérêts pour les circuits cognitifs. La présence d’un trouble léger de la cognition (TCL) de PD a été liée avec des changements structurels de la matière grise, matière blanche ainsi que des changements fonctionnels du cerveau. En particulier, une activité significativement réduite a été observée dans la boucle corticostriatale ‘cognitive’ chez des patients atteints de PD-TCL vs. PD non-TCL en utilisant IRMf. On sait peu de cours de ces modèles fonctionnels au fil du temps. Dans cette étude, nous présentons un suivi longitudinal de 24 patients de PD non démente qui a subi une enquête neuropsychologique, et ont été séparés en deux groupes - avec et sans TCL (TCL n = 11, non-TCL n = 13) en fonction du niveau 2 des recommandations de la Movement Disrders Society pour le diagnostic de PD-TCL. Ensuite, chaque participant a subi une IRMf en effectuant la tâche de Wisconsin pendant deux sessions, 19 mois d'intervalle. Nos résultats longitudinaux montrent qu'au cours de la planification de période de la tâche, les patients PD non-TCL engageant les ressources normales du cortex mais ils ont activé en plus les zones corticales qui sont liés à la prise de décision tel que cortex médial préfrontal (PFC), lobe pariétal et le PFC supérieure, tandis que les PD-TCL ont échoué pour engager ces zones en temps 2. Le striatum n'était pas engagé pour les deux groupes en temps 1 et pour le groupe TCL en temps 2. En outre, les structures médiales du lobe temporal étaient au fil du temps sous recrutés pour TCL et Non-TCL et étaient positivement corrélés avec les scores de MoCA. Le cortex pariétal, PFC antérieur, PFC supérieure et putamen postérieur étaient négativement corrélés avec les scores de MoCA en fil du temps. Ces résultats révèlent une altération fonctionnelle pour l’axe ganglial-thalamo-corticale au début de PD, ainsi que des niveaux différents de participation corticale pendant une déficience cognitive. Cette différence de recrutement corticale des ressources pourrait refléter longitudinalement des circuits déficients distincts de trouble cognitive légère dans PD.
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La perméthrine fait partie de la famille des pyréthrinoïdes qui sont abondamment utilisés en agriculture. Le but de cette étude était d'obtenir des données sur la cinétique des biomarqueurs d'exposition à la perméthrine en condition réelle d'exposition chez les travailleurs agricoles. Douze travailleurs (un applicateur, un superviseur et dix cueilleurs) exposés à la perméthrine dans le cadre de leur emploi ont été recrutés dans une ferme maraichère de la Montérégie (Québec). Ils ont fourni toutes leurs urines sur une période de trois jours suivant le début des travaux dans un champ traité. Les trois principaux métabolites de la perméthrine, l'acide cis-/trans-3-(2,2-dichlorovinyle)-2,2-diméthylecyclopropane carboxylique (cis-/trans-DCCA) et l'acide 3-phénoxybenzoïque (3-PBA) ont été analysés par chromatographie liquide à ultra-haute performance couplée à la spectrométrie de masse à temps de vol. Pour l'applicateur, une augmentation progressive des valeurs d'excrétion a été observée avec un pic unique atteint environ 30 h après le début de l'exposition d'une durée de 3,5 h suivi d'une élimination avec une demi-vie de 8 h. Pour le superviseur et l'un des cueilleurs, les profils d'excrétion de trans-DCCA et de 3-PBA étaient compatibles avec de multiples entrées dans la zone traitée pendant la période d'échantillonnage accompagné d'une élimination rapide entre les épisodes d'exposition.L'applicateur aurait été exposé indirectement par contact main-bouche, alors que les autres travailleurs auraient été exposés par la voie cutanée. Pour une surveillance biologique adéquate, nous recommandons de mesurer deux biomarqueurs de la perméthrine, soit le trans-DCCA et le 3-PBA et de prendre un minimum de trois échantillons urinaires, un avant et deux pendant ou suivant la période d'exposition.
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On December 8, 2008, a male fisher (Martes pennanti) housed in a quarantine enclosure at the St-Félicien Zoo was found dead with multiple skin ulcers on the muzzle and plantar pads. At necropsy, no major findings were found, and a specific cause of death was not determined microscopically. However, at the borders of ulcerated sites, there were increased numbers of koilocytes, with perinuclear vacuolation and nuclear enlargement. A pan-herpesvirus nested polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay was conducted, and an expected PCR product of 230 nucleotides was obtained within tissues collected from around the skin ulcers. Other tissues, including intestines and pool of lung, liver, and kidney, tested negative. The obtained PCR amplicon was sequenced and was highly related to the partial viral DNA polymerase (DPOL) gene of Mustelid herpesvirus 1. Virus isolation was negative, and no virion was detected by electron microscopy. The pathogenic potential of this novel herpesvirus and its role in the death of the fisher are unknown.
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The progress in microsystem technology or nano technology places extended requirements to the fabrication processes. The trend is moving towards structuring within the nanometer scale on the one hand, and towards fabrication of structures with high aspect ratio (ratio of vertical vs. lateral dimensions) and large depths in the 100 µm scale on the other hand. Current procedures for the microstructuring of silicon are wet chemical etching and dry or plasma etching. A modern plasma etching technique for the structuring of silicon is the so-called "gas chopping" etching technique (also called "time-multiplexed etching"). In this etching technique, passivation cycles, which prevent lateral underetching of sidewalls, and etching cycles, which etch preferably in the vertical direction because of the sidewall passivation, are constantly alternated during the complete etching process. To do this, a CHF3/CH4 plasma, which generates CF monomeres is employed during the passivation cycle, and a SF6/Ar, which generates fluorine radicals and ions plasma is employed during the etching cycle. Depending on the requirements on the etched profile, the durations of the individual passivation and etching cycles are in the range of a few seconds up to several minutes. The profiles achieved with this etching process crucially depend on the flow of reactants, i.e. CF monomeres during the passivation cycle, and ions and fluorine radicals during the etching cycle, to the bottom of the profile, especially for profiles with high aspect ratio. With regard to the predictability of the etching processes, knowledge of the fundamental effects taking place during a gas chopping etching process, and their impact onto the resulting profile is required. For this purpose in the context of this work, a model for the description of the profile evolution of such etching processes is proposed, which considers the reactions (etching or deposition) at the sample surface on a phenomenological basis. Furthermore, the reactant transport inside the etching trench is modelled, based on angular distribution functions and on absorption probabilities at the sidewalls and bottom of the trench. A comparison of the simulated profiles with corresponding experimental profiles reveals that the proposed model reproduces the experimental profiles, if the angular distribution functions and absorption probabilities employed in the model is in agreement with data found in the literature. Therefor the model developed in the context of this work is an adequate description of the effects taking place during a gas chopping plasma etching process.
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Local belief propagation rules of the sort proposed by Pearl(1988) are guaranteed to converge to the optimal beliefs for singly connected networks. Recently, a number of researchers have empirically demonstrated good performance of these same algorithms on networks with loops, but a theoretical understanding of this performance has yet to be achieved. Here we lay the foundation for an understanding of belief propagation in networks with loops. For networks with a single loop, we derive ananalytical relationship between the steady state beliefs in the loopy network and the true posterior probability. Using this relationship we show a category of networks for which the MAP estimate obtained by belief update and by belief revision can be proven to be optimal (although the beliefs will be incorrect). We show how nodes can use local information in the messages they receive in order to correct the steady state beliefs. Furthermore we prove that for all networks with a single loop, the MAP estimate obtained by belief revisionat convergence is guaranteed to give the globally optimal sequence of states. The result is independent of the length of the cycle and the size of the statespace. For networks with multiple loops, we introduce the concept of a "balanced network" and show simulati.
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Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), a complex polygenic autoimmune disease, is associated with increased complement activation. Variants of genes encoding complement regulator factor H (CFH) and five CFH-related proteins (CFHR1-CFHR5) within the chromosome 1q32 locus linked to SLE, have been associated with multiple human diseases and may contribute to dysregulated complement activation predisposing to SLE. We assessed 60 SNPs covering the CFH-CFHRs region for association with SLE in 15,864 case-control subjects derived from four ethnic groups. Significant allelic associations with SLE were detected in European Americans (EA) and African Americans (AA), which could be attributed to an intronic CFH SNP (rs6677604, in intron 11, Pmeta = 6.6×10-8, OR = 1.18) and an intergenic SNP between CFHR1 and CFHR4 (rs16840639, Pmeta = 2.9×10-7, OR = 1.17) rather than to previously identified disease-associated CFH exonic SNPs, including I62V, Y402H, A474A, and D936E. In addition, allelic association of rs6677604 with SLE was subsequently confirmed in Asians (AS). Haplotype analysis revealed that the underlying causal variant, tagged by rs6677604 and rs16840639, was localized to a ~146 kb block extending from intron 9 of CFH to downstream of CFHR1. Within this block, the deletion of CFHR3 and CFHR1 (CFHR3-1Δ), a likely causal variant measured using multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification, was tagged by rs6677604 in EA and AS and rs16840639 in AA, respectively. Deduced from genotypic associations of tag SNPs in EA, AA, and AS, homozygous deletion of CFHR3-1Δ (Pmeta = 3.2×10-7, OR = 1.47) conferred a higher risk of SLE than heterozygous deletion (Pmeta = 3.5×10-4, OR = 1.14). These results suggested that the CFHR3-1Δ deletion within the SLE-associated block, but not the previously described exonic SNPs of CFH, might contribute to the development of SLE in EA, AA, and AS, providing new insights into the role of complement regulators in the pathogenesis of SLE.