Influences of increasing temperature on Indian wheat: quantifying limits to predictability

As climate changes, temperatures will play an increasing role in determining crop yield. Both climate model error and lack of constrained physiological thresholds limit the predictability of yield. We used a perturbed-parameter climate model ensemble with two methods of bias-correction as input to a regional-scale wheat simulation model over India to examine future yields. This model configuration accounted for uncertainty in climate, planting date, optimization, temperature-induced changes in development rate and reproduction. It also accounts for lethal temperatures, which have been somewhat neglected to date. Using uncertainty decomposition, we found that fractional uncertainty due to temperature-driven processes in the crop model was on average larger than climate model uncertainty (0.56 versus 0.44), and that the crop model uncertainty is dominated by crop development. Simulations with the raw compared to the bias-corrected climate data did not agree on the impact on future wheat yield, nor its geographical distribution. However the method of bias-correction was not an important source of uncertainty. We conclude that bias-correction of climate model data and improved constraints on especially crop development are critical for robust impact predictions.

Modelling of control options for an outbreak of Mycoplasma gallisepticum in egg production: a decision support tool

Mycoplasma gallisepticum (MG) is a bacterium that causes respiratory disease in chickens, leading to reduced egg production. A dynamic simulation model was developed that can be used to assess the costs and benefits of control using antimicrobials or vaccination in caged or free range systems. The intended users are veterinarians and egg producers. A user interface is provided for input of flock specific parameters. The economic consequence of an MG outbreak is expressed as a reduction in expected egg output. The model predicts that either vaccination or microbial treatment can approximately halve potential losses from MG in some circumstances. Sensitivity analysis is used to test assumptions about infection rate and timing of an outbreak. Feedback from veterinarians points to the value of the model as a discussion tool with producers.

Electron acceleration and parallel electric fields due to kinetic Alfvén waves in plasma with similar thermal and Alfvén speeds

We investigate electron acceleration due to shear Alfven waves in a collissionless plasma for plasma parameters typical of 4–5RE radial distance from the Earth along auroral field lines. Recent observational work has motivated this study, which explores the plasma regime where the thermal velocity of the electrons is similar to the Alfven speed of the plasma, encouraging Landau resonance for electrons in the wave fields. We use a self-consistent kinetic simulation model to follow the evolution of the electrons as they interact with a short-duration wave pulse, which allows us to determine the parallel electric field of the shear Alfven wave due to both electron inertia and electron pressure effects. The simulation demonstrates that electrons can be accelerated to keV energies in a modest amplitude sub-second period wave. We compare the parallel electric field obtained from the simulation with those provided by fluid approximations.

Modelling capability and affordance as properties of human/machine resource systems

Understanding how and why the capability of one set of business resources, its structural arrangements and mechanisms compared to another works can provide competitive advantage in terms of new business processes and product and service development. However, most business models of capability are descriptive and lack formal modelling language to qualitatively and quantifiably compare capabilities, Gibson’s theory of affordance, the potential for action, provides a formal basis for a more robust and quantitative model, but most formal affordance models are complex and abstract and lack support for real-world applications. We aim to understand the ‘how’ and ‘why’ of business capability, by developing a quantitative and qualitative model that underpins earlier work on Capability-Affordance Modelling – CAM. This paper integrates an affordance based capability model and the formalism of Coloured Petri Nets to develop a simulation model. Using the model, we show how capability depends on the space time path of interacting resources, the mechanism of transition and specific critical affordance factors relating to the values of the variables for resources, people and physical objects. We show how the model can identify the capabilities of resources to enable the capability to inject a drug and anaesthetise a patient.

Folding of graphene slit like pore walls—a simple method of improving CO2 separation from mixtures with CH4 or N2

We report for the first time a detailed procedure for creating a simulation model of energetically stable, folded graphene-like pores and simulation results of CO2/CH4 and CO2/N2 separation using these structures. We show that folding of graphene structures is a very promising method to improve the separation of CO2 from mixtures with CH4 and N2. The separation properties of the analyzed materials are compared with carbon nanotubes having similar diameters or S/V ratio. The presented results have potential importance in the field of CO2 capture and sequestration.

The impact of fragmentation and density regulation on forest succession in the Atlantic rain forest

The Atlantic Rain Forest, an important biodiversity hot spot, has faced severe habitat loss since the last century which has resulted in a highly fragmented landscape with a large number of small forest patches (<100 ha). For conservation planning it is essential to understand how current and future forest regeneration depends on ecological processes, fragment size and the connection to the regional seed pool. We have investigated the following questions by applying the forest growth simulation model FORMIND to the situation of the Atlantic Forest in the state of Sao Paulo, SE Brazil: (1) which set of parameters describing the local regeneration and level of density regulation can reproduce the biomass distribution and stem density of an old growth forest in a reserve? (2) Which additional processes apart from those describing the dynamics of an old growth forest, drive forest succession of small isolated fragments? (3) Which role does external seed input play during succession? Therefore, more than 300 tree species have been classified into nine plant functional types (PFTs), which are characterized by maximum potential height and shade tolerance. We differentiate between two seed dispersal modes: (i) local dispersal, i.e. all seedlings originated from fertile trees within the simulated area and (ii) external seed rain. Local seed dispersal has been parameterized following the pattern oriented approach, using biomass estimates of old growth forest. We have found that moderate density regulation is essential to achieve coexistence for a broad range of regeneration parameters. Considering the expected uncertainty and variability in the regeneration processes it is important that the forest dynamics are robust to variations in the regeneration parameters. Furthermore, edge effects such as increased mortality at the border and external seed rain have been necessary to reproduce the patterns for small isolated fragments. Overall, simulated biomass is much lower in the fragments compared to the continuous forest, whereas shade tolerant species are affected most strongly by fragmentation. Our simulations can supplement empirical studies by extrapolating local knowledge on edge effects of fragments to larger temporal and spatial scales. In particular our results show the importance of external seed rain and therefore highlight the importance of structural connectivity between regenerating fragments and mature forest stands. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Load balancing solution and evaluation of F5 content switch equipment

The Thesis focused on hardware based Load balancing solution of web traffic through a load balancer F5 content switch. In this project, the implemented scenario for distributing HTTPtraffic load is based on different CPU usages (processing speed) of multiple member servers.Two widely used load balancing algorithms Round Robin (RR) and Ratio model (weighted Round Robin) are implemented through F5 load balancer. For evaluating the performance of F5 content switch, some experimental tests has been taken on implemented scenarios using RR and Ratio model load balancing algorithms. The performance is examined in terms of throughput (bits/sec) and Response time of member servers in a load balancing pool. From these experiments we have observed that Ratio Model load balancing algorithm is most suitable in the environment of load balancing servers with different CPU usages as it allows assigning the weight according to CPU usage both in static and dynamic load balancing of servers.

Developing a Communication link between Agents and cross Platform IDE

The main objective of this thesis work is to develop communication link between Runrev Revolution (IDE) and JADE (Multi-Agent System) through Socket programming using TCP/IP layer. These two independent platforms are connected using socket programming technique. Socket programming is considered to be newly emerging technology among these two platforms, the work done in this thesis work is considered to be a prototype.A Graphical simulation model is developed by salixphere (Company in Hedemora) to simulate logistic problems using Runrev Revolution (IDE). The simulation software/program is called “BIOSIM”. The logistic problems are complex, and conventional optimization techniques are unlikely very successful. “BIOSIM” can demonstrate the graphical representation of logistic problems depending upon the problem domains. As this simulation model is developed in revolution programming language (Transcript) which is dynamically typed and English-like language, it is quite slow compared to other high level programming languages. The object of this thesis work is to add intelligent behaviour in graphical objects and develop communication link between Runrev revolution (IDE) and JADE (Multi-Agent System) using TCP/IP layers.The test shows the intelligent behaviour in the graphical objects and successful communication between Runrev Revolution (IDE) and JADE (Multi-Agent System).

Load Adapted Solar Thermal Combisystems - Optical Analysis and Systems Optimization

In a northern European climate a typical solar combisystem for a single family house normally saves between 10 and 30 % of the auxiliary energy needed for space heating and domestic water heating. It is considered uneconomical to dimension systems for higher energy savings. Overheating problems may also occur. One way of avoiding these problems is to use a collector that is designed so that it has a low optical efficiency in summer, when the solar elevation is high and the load is small, and a high optical efficiency in early spring and late fall when the solar elevation is low and the load is large.The study investigates the possibilities to design the system and, in particular, the collector optics, in order to match the system performance with the yearly variations of the heating load and the solar irradiation. It seems possible to design practically viable load adapted collectors, and to use them for whole roofs ( 40 m2) without causing more overheating stress on the system than with a standard 10 m2 system. The load adapted collectors collect roughly as much energy per unit area as flat plate collectors, but they may be produced at a lower cost due to lower material costs. There is an additional potential for a cost reduction since it is possible to design the load adapted collector for low stagnation temperatures making it possible to use less expensive materials. One and the same collector design is suitable for a wide range of system sizes and roof inclinations. The report contains descriptions of optimized collector designs, properties of realistic collectors, and results of calculations of system output, stagnation performance and cost performance. Appropriate computer tools for optical analysis, optimization of collectors in systems and a very fast simulation model have been developed.

TCA Evaluation : Lab Measurements, Modelling and System Simulations

The study reported here is part of a large project for evaluation of the Thermo-Chemical Accumulator (TCA), a technology under development by the Swedish company ClimateWell AB. The studies concentrate on the use of the technology for comfort cooling. This report concentrates on measurements in the laboratory, modelling and system simulation. The TCA is a three-phase absorption heat pump that stores energy in the form of crystallised salt, in this case Lithium Chloride (LiCl) with water being the other substance. The process requires vacuum conditions as with standard absorption chillers using LiBr/water. Measurements were carried out in the laboratories at the Solar Energy Research Center SERC, at Högskolan Dalarna as well as at ClimateWell AB. The measurements at SERC were performed on a prototype version 7:1 and showed that this prototype had several problems resulting in poor and unreliable performance. The main results were that: there was significant corrosion leading to non-condensable gases that in turn caused very poor performance; unwanted crystallisation caused blockages as well as inconsistent behaviour; poor wetting of the heat exchangers resulted in relatively high temperature drops there. A measured thermal COP for cooling of 0.46 was found, which is significantly lower than the theoretical value. These findings resulted in a thorough redesign for the new prototype, called ClimateWell 10 (CW10), which was tested briefly by the authors at ClimateWell. The data collected here was not large, but enough to show that the machine worked consistently with no noticeable vacuum problems. It was also sufficient for identifying the main parameters in a simulation model developed for the TRNSYS simulation environment, but not enough to verify the model properly. This model was shown to be able to simulate the dynamic as well as static performance of the CW10, and was then used in a series of system simulations. A single system model was developed as the basis of the system simulations, consisting of a CW10 machine, 30 m2 flat plate solar collectors with backup boiler and an office with a design cooling load in Stockholm of 50 W/m2, resulting in a 7.5 kW design load for the 150 m2 floor area. Two base cases were defined based on this: one for Stockholm using a dry cooler with design cooling rate of 30 kW; one for Madrid with a cooling tower with design cooling rate of 34 kW. A number of parametric studies were performed based on these two base cases. These showed that the temperature lift is a limiting factor for cooling for higher ambient temperatures and for charging with fixed temperature source such as district heating. The simulated evacuated tube collector performs only marginally better than a good flat plate collector if considering the gross area, the margin being greater for larger solar fractions. For 30 m2 collector a solar faction of 49% and 67% were achieved for the Stockholm and Madrid base cases respectively. The average annual efficiency of the collector in Stockholm (12%) was much lower than that in Madrid (19%). The thermal COP was simulated to be approximately 0.70, but has not been possible to verify with measured data. The annual electrical COP was shown to be very dependent on the cooling load as a large proportion of electrical use is for components that are permanently on. For the cooling loads studied, the annual electrical COP ranged from 2.2 for a 2000 kWh cooling load to 18.0 for a 21000 kWh cooling load. There is however a potential to reduce the electricity consumption in the machine, which would improve these figures significantly. It was shown that a cooling tower is necessary for the Madrid climate, whereas a dry cooler is sufficient for Stockholm although a cooling tower does improve performance. The simulation study was very shallow and has shown a number of areas that are important to study in more depth. One such area is advanced control strategy, which is necessary to mitigate the weakness of the technology (low temperature lift for cooling) and to optimally use its strength (storage).

Technology diffusion: analysing the diffusion of agent technologies

Despite several examples of deployed agent systems, there remain barriers to the large-scale adoption of agent technologies. In order to understand these barriers, this paper considers aspects of marketing theory which deal with diffusion of innovations and their relevance to the agents domain and the current state of diffusion of agent technologies. In particular, the paper examines the role of standards in the adoption of new technologies, describes the agent standards landscape, and compares the development and diffusion of agent technologies with that of object-oriented programming. The paper also reports on a simulation model developed in order to consider different trajectories for the adoption of agent technologies, with trajectories based on various assumptions regarding industry structure and the existence of competing technology standards. We present details of the simulation model and its assumptions, along with the results of the simulation exercises.

Hydrodynamic Simulations Of Vacuum-Driven Storage Tanks

As a result of urbanization, stormwater runoff flow rates and volumes are significantly increased due to increasing impervious land cover and the decreased availability of depression storage. Storage tanks are the basic devices to efficiently control the flow rate in drainage systems during wet weather. Presented in the paper conception of vacuum-driven detention tanks allows to increase the storage capacity by usage of space above the free surface water elevation at the inlet channel. Partial vacuum storage makes possible to gain cost savings by reduction of both the horizontal area of the detention tank and necessary depth of foundations. Simulation model of vacuum-driven storage tank has been developed to estimate potential profits of its application in urban drainage system. Although SWMM5 has no direct options for vacuum tanks an existing functions (i.e. control rules) have been used to reflect its operation phases. Rainfall data used in simulations were recorded at raingage in Czestochowa during years 2010÷2012 with time interval of 10minutes. Simulation results gives overview to practical operation and maintenance cost (energy demand) of vacuum driven storage tanks depending of the ratio: vacuum-driven volume to total storage capacity. The following conclusion can be drawn from this investigations: vacuum-driven storage tanks are characterized by uncomplicated construction and control systems, thus can be applied in newly developed as well as in the existing urban drainage systems. the application of vacuum in underground detention facilities makes possible to increase of the storage capacity of existing reservoirs by usage the space above the maximum depth. Possible increase of storage capacity can achieve even a few dozen percent at relatively low investment costs. vacuum driven storage tanks can be included in existing simulation software (i.e. SWMM) using options intended for pumping stations (including control and action rules ).

Sistema de produção sincronizado : uma aplicação em processos produtivos de propriedade contínuos segundo a teoria das restrições

Este trabalho de conclusão investiga o efeito da geração de estoques intermediários nos indicadores principais empregados na Teoria das Restrições (Ganho, Despesa Operacional e Inventário) em uma unidade industrial de processo produtivo de Propriedade contínuo, que emprega embalagens, matérias-primas obtidas em larga escala e cadeias logísticas de longo curso. Este tipo de indústria produz bens de consumo imediato, com pouca variabilidade, de modo “empurrado”. A principal conseqüência é a perda do sincronismo na cadeia logística, resultando em uma grande quantidade de estoques intermediários e custos crescentes, relacionados principalmente ao custo de manutenção destes estoques. Através dos cinco passos de focalização e das ferramentas lógicas da Teoria das Restrições, propõe-se uma alternativa gerencial, que inclui o algoritmo Tambor-Pulmão-Corda e insere a organização em um processo de melhoria contínua, cujos impactos são avaliados por simulação computacional. Através de técnicas estatísticas e software apropriados, constrói-se um modelo de simulação computacional baseado em dados reais de uma planta produtora de cimento. A partir deste modelo, diferentes cenários são testados, descobrindo-se a condição ótima. Chega-se a uma conclusão, considerando a mudança na política de geração de estoques intermediários e seus impactos na redução de custos e riscos.

Avaliação dos impactos de uma proposta de escalonamento de horários em um campus universitário

O trabalho apresenta uma avaliação dos prováveis impactos do escalonamento dos horários das aulas noturnas em uma Universidade. Neste trabalho foi investigada, a preferência dos usuários quanto às possíveis alterações nos horários de entrada de aulas, e os impactos do escalonamento na rede viária no entorno do campus. O trabalho envolveu a construção de diversos cenários de alterações nos horários de início das aulas. Os cenários foram construídos visando atender as preferências da população universitária e reduzir a interferência do pico de chegada de alunos no sistema viário. A avaliação dos impactos destes cenários no tráfego foi realizada através de simulação, com a utilização do modelo TSIS/NETSIM. As análises foram baseadas em dois indicadores de desempenho: a velocidade média e o tempo de atraso médio na rede.

A BDI-based approach for the assessment of driver's decision-making in commuter scenarios

The rapid growth of urban areas has a significant impact on traffic and transportation systems. New management policies and planning strategies are clearly necessary to cope with the more than ever limited capacity of existing road networks. The concept of Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) arises in this scenario; rather than attempting to increase road capacity by means of physical modifications to the infrastructure, the premise of ITS relies on the use of advanced communication and computer technologies to handle today’s traffic and transportation facilities. Influencing users’ behaviour patterns is a challenge that has stimulated much research in the ITS field, where human factors start gaining great importance to modelling, simulating, and assessing such an innovative approach. This work is aimed at using Multi-agent Systems (MAS) to represent the traffic and transportation systems in the light of the new performance measures brought about by ITS technologies. Agent features have good potentialities to represent those components of a system that are geographically and functionally distributed, such as most components in traffic and transportation. A BDI (beliefs, desires, and intentions) architecture is presented as an alternative to traditional models used to represent the driver behaviour within microscopic simulation allowing for an explicit representation of users’ mental states. Basic concepts of ITS and MAS are presented, as well as some application examples related to the subject. This has motivated the extension of an existing microscopic simulation framework to incorporate MAS features to enhance the representation of drivers. This way demand is generated from a population of agents as the result of their decisions on route and departure time, on a daily basis. The extended simulation model that now supports the interaction of BDI driver agents was effectively implemented, and different experiments were performed to test this approach in commuter scenarios. MAS provides a process-driven approach that fosters the easy construction of modular, robust, and scalable models, characteristics that lack in former result-driven approaches. Its abstraction premises allow for a closer association between the model and its practical implementation. Uncertainty and variability are addressed in a straightforward manner, as an easier representation of humanlike behaviours within the driver structure is provided by cognitive architectures, such as the BDI approach used in this work. This way MAS extends microscopic simulation of traffic to better address the complexity inherent in ITS technologies.