Analysis and optimisation of the preferences of decision-makers in black-start group decision-making

As the first stage of power system restoration after a blackout, an optimal black-start scheme is very important for speeding up the whole restoration procedure. Up to now, much research work has been done on generating or selecting an optimal black-start scheme by a single round of decision-making. However, less attention has been paid for improving the final decision-making results through a multiple-round decision-making procedure. In the group decision-making environment, decision-making results evaluated by different black-start experts may differ significantly with each other. Thus, the consistency of black-start decision-making results could be deemed as an important indicator in assessing the black-start group decision-making results. Given this background, an intuitionistic fuzzy distance-based method is presented to analyse the consistency of black-start group decision-making results. Moreover, the weights of black-start indices as well as the weights of decision-making experts are modified in order to optimise the consistency of black-start group decision-making results. Finally, an actual example is served for demonstrating the proposed method.

A novel 15N tracer approach for the quantification of N2 and N2O emissions from soil incubations in a completely automated laboratory set up

The microbial mediated production of nitrous oxide (N2O) and its reduction to dinitrogen (N2) via denitrification represents a loss of nitrogen (N) from fertilised agro-ecosystems to the atmosphere. Although denitrification has received great interest by biogeochemists in the last decades, the magnitude of N2lossesand related N2:N2O ratios from soils still are largely unknown due to methodical constraints. We present a novel 15N tracer approach, based on a previous developed tracer method to study denitrification in pure bacterial cultures which was modified for the use on soil incubations in a completely automated laboratory set up. The method uses a background air in the incubation vessels that is replaced with a helium-oxygen gas mixture with a 50-fold reduced N2 background (2 % v/v). This method allows for a direct and sensitive quantification of the N2 and N2O emissions from the soil with isotope-ratio mass spectrometry after 15N labelling of denitrification N substrates and minimises the sensitivity to the intrusion of atmospheric N2 at the same time. The incubation set up was used to determine the influence of different soil moisture levels on N2 and N2O emissions from a sub-tropical pasture soil in Queensland/Australia. The soil was labelled with an equivalent of 50 μg-N per gram dry soil by broadcast application of KNO3solution (4 at.% 15N) and incubated for 3 days at 80% and 100% water filled pore space (WFPS), respectively. The headspace of the incubation vessel was sampled automatically over 12hrs each day and 3 samples (0, 6, and 12 hrs after incubation start) of headspace gas analysed for N2 and N2O with an isotope-ratio mass spectrometer (DELTA V Plus, Thermo Fisher Scientific, Bremen, Germany(. In addition, the soil was analysed for 15N NO3- and NH4+ using the 15N diffusion method, which enabled us to obtain a complete N balance. The method proved to be highly sensitive for N2 and N2O emissions detecting N2O emissions ranging from 20 to 627 μN kg-1soil-1hr-1and N2 emissions ranging from 4.2 to 43 μN kg-1soil-1hr-1for the different treatments. The main end-product of denitrification was N2O for both water contents with N2 accounting for 9% and 13% of the total denitrification losses at 80% and 100%WFPS, respectively. Between 95-100% of the added 15N fertiliser could be recovered. Gross nitrification over the 3 days amounted to 8.6 μN g-1 soil-1 and 4.7 μN g-1 soil-1, denitrification to 4.1 μN g-1 soil-1 and 11.8 μN g-1 soil-1at 80% and 100%WFPS, respectively. The results confirm that the tested method allows for a direct and highly sensitive detection of N2 and N2O fluxes from soils and hence offers a sensitive tool to study denitrification and N turnover in terrestrial agro-ecosystems.

Smoking from Adolescence to Adulthood : A 15-year Follow-up of the North Karelia Youth Project

The aim of the study was to examine the effects of a smoking prevention program and smoking from early adolescence to early adulthood by using longitudinal data. In addition, predictors of smoking, smoking cessation, and associations of smoking with socio-economic factors and other health behaviours were assessed. The data was gathered in connection with the North Karelia Youth Project follow-up study during 15 years. A two-year cardiovascular disease risk factor prevention program was carried out among students from grades seven to nine in four schools in North Karelia. Two schools were selected from Kuopio province for the control schools. The North Karelia Project, a community-based cardiovascular disease prevention program, was implemented in the same area. At the baseline in 1978 the subjects were 13-year-olds (n=903) and in the following surveys 15-, 16-, 17-, 21- and 28-year-olds. The parents of the subjects were studied twice, in 1978 and 1980. A two-year intervention based on social influence approach prevented the onset of smoking for several years. The continuity of smoking from adolescence to adulthood was strong: most adolescent smokers were still smoking in adulthood. Moreover, approximately half of the 28-year-old smokers had started smoking after the age of 15. Previous smoking status and smoking by friends were the most important predictors of smoking. One third of all adolescent smokers had stopped smoking before the age of 28, averaging at 2.3 % annual decline. The socioeconomic status of the subject and, especially, education were strongly related to smoking, the lower socioeconomic groups smoking the most. Parental socioeconomic status and intergenerational social mobility were not significantly related to the smoking of the subject in adolescence or adulthood. Smoking was associated positively with the use of alcohol and negatively with physical activity from adolescence to adulthood. The results support the feasibility of a school-based social influence program with a community-based program in smoking prevention among adolescents. Strong continuity of smoking from adolescence to adulthood supports the importance of preventing the onset of smoking in adolescence. It would be useful to continue prevention programs also after the comprehensive school, since so many young start smoking after that. It would likewise be important to develop cessation programs tailor-made for adolescents and young adults. Additionally, the results support the importance of using methods based on social influence in smoking prevention and cessation programs, targeting especially such risk groups as those with low socioeconomic status as well as those with other unhealthy behaviours.

Early life determinants of atopy : A 20-year prospective follow-up study on unselected, healthy newborns

Atopy-related allergic diseases, i.e. allergic rhinoconjunctivitis, atopic dermatitis and asthma, have increased in frequency in the industrialized countries. In order to reverse this trend, effective preventive strategies need to be developed. This requires a better understanding of the early-life events leading to the expression of the atopic phenotype. The present study has aimed at defining early-life factors and markers associated with the subsequent development of allergic diseases in a cohort of 200 healthy, unselected Finnish newborns prospectively followed up from birth to age 20 years. Their mothers were encouraged to start and maintain exclusive breastfeeding as long as it was nutritionally sufficient for the infant. Consequently, all the infants received some duration of exclusive breastfeeding, 58% of the infants were on exclusive breastfeeding for the first 6 months of life, and 18% received this feeding at least for the first 9 months. Of the infants, 42% had a family history of allergy. After the first year of follow-up, the children were re-assessed at ages 5, 11 and 20 years with clinical examination, skin prick testing, and parental and personal interviews. Exclusive breastfeeding for over 9 months was associated with atopic dermatitis and symptoms of food hypersensitivity at age 5 years, and with symptoms of food hypersensitivity at age 11 years in the children with a familial allergy. Subjects with allergic symptoms or a positive skin prick test in childhood or adolescence had lower retinol concentrations during their infancy and childhood than others. An elevated cord serum immunoglobulin E concentration predicted subsequent atopic manifestations though with modest sensitivity. Children and adolescents with allergic symptoms, skin prick test positivity and an elevated IgE had lower total cholesterol levels in infancy and childhood than the nonatopic subjects. In conclusion, prolonging strictly exclusive breastfeeding for over 9 months of age was not of help in prevention of allergic symptoms; instead, it was associated with increased atopic dermatitis and food hypersensitivity symptoms in childhood. Due to the modest sensitivity, cord serum IgE is not an effective screening method for atopic predisposition in the general population. Retinol and cholesterol concentrations in infancy were inversely associated with the subsequent development of allergic symptoms. Based on these findings, it is proposed that there may be differences in the inborn regulation of retinol and cholesterol levels in children with and without a genetic susceptibility to atopy, and these may play a role in the development of atopic sensitization and allergic diseases.

Interplay of vector-like top partner multiplets in a realistic mixing set-up

The ATLAS and CMS collaborations at the LHC have performed analyses on the existing data sets, studying the case of one vector-like fermion or multiplet coupling to the standard model Yukawa sector. In the near future, with more data available, these experimental collaborations will start to investigate more realistic cases. The presence of more than one extra vector-like multiplet is indeed a common situation in many extensions of the standard model. The interplay of these vector-like multiplet between precision electroweak bounds, flavour and collider phenomenology is a important question in view of establishing bounds or for the discovery of physics beyond the standard model. In this work we study the phenomenological consequences of the presence of two vector-like multiplets. We analyse the constraints on such scenarios from tree-level data and oblique corrections for the case of mixing to each of the SM generations. In the present work, we limit to scenarios with two top-like partners and no mixing in the down-sector.

Liquid fuel visualization using laser-induced fluoresence during cold start

The presence of liquid fuel inside the engine cylinder is believed to be a strong contributor to the high levels of hydrocarbon emissions from spark ignition (SI) engines during the warm-up period. Quantifying and determining the fate of the liquid fuel that enters the cylinder is the first step in understanding the process of emissions formation. This work uses planar laser induced fluorescence (PLIF) to visualize the liquid fuel present in the cylinder. The fluorescing compounds in indolene, and mixtures of iso-octane with dopants of different boiling points (acetone and 3-pentanone) were used to trace the behavior of different volatility components. Images were taken of three different planes through the engine intersecting the intake valve region. A closed valve fuel injection strategy was used, as this is the strategy most commonly used in practice. Background subtraction and masking were both performed to reduce the effect of any spurious fluorescence. The images were analyzed on both a time and crank angle (CA) basis, showing the time of maximum liquid fuel present in the cylinder and the effect of engine events on the inflow of liquid fuel. The results show details of the liquid fuel distribution as it enters the engine as a function of crankangle degree, volatility and location in the cylinder. A. semi-quantitative analysis based on the integration of the image intensities provides additional information on the temporal distribution of the liquid fuel flow. © 1998 Society of Automotive Engineers, Inc.

STOPP/START criteria for potentially inappropriate prescribing in older people: version 2

PURPOSE: screening tool of older people's prescriptions (STOPP) and screening tool to alert to right treatment (START) criteria were first published in 2008. Due to an expanding therapeutics evidence base, updating of the criteria was required.

METHODS: we reviewed the 2008 STOPP/START criteria to add new evidence-based criteria and remove any obsolete criteria. A thorough literature review was performed to reassess the evidence base of the 2008 criteria and the proposed new criteria. Nineteen experts from 13 European countries reviewed a new draft of STOPP & START criteria including proposed new criteria. These experts were also asked to propose additional criteria they considered important to include in the revised STOPP & START criteria and to highlight any criteria from the 2008 list they considered less important or lacking an evidence base. The revised list of criteria was then validated using the Delphi consensus methodology.

RESULTS: the expert panel agreed a final list of 114 criteria after two Delphi validation rounds, i.e. 80 STOPP criteria and 34 START criteria. This represents an overall 31% increase in STOPP/START criteria compared with version 1. Several new STOPP categories were created in version 2, namely antiplatelet/anticoagulant drugs, drugs affecting, or affected by, renal function and drugs that increase anticholinergic burden; new START categories include urogenital system drugs, analgesics and vaccines.

CONCLUSION: STOPP/START version 2 criteria have been expanded and updated for the purpose of minimizing inappropriate prescribing in older people. These criteria are based on an up-to-date literature review and consensus validation among a European panel of experts.

Trends in the start of the wet season over Africa

A quarter of a century of daily rainfall data from the Global Telecommunications System are used to define the temporal and spatial variability of the start of the wet season over Africa and surrounding extreme south of Europe and parts of the Middle East. From 1978 to 2002, the start of the wet season arrived later in the year for the majority of the region, as time progressed. In some parts of the continent, there was an annual increase in the start date of up to 4 days per year. On average, the start of the wet season arrived 9–21 days later from 1978 to 2002, depending on the threshold used to define the start of the rains (varying from 10–30 mm over 2 days, with no dry period in the following 10 days). It is noted that the inter-annual variability of the start of the wet season is high with the range of start dates varying on average from 116 to 142 days dependent on the threshold used to determine the start date. These results may have important implications for agriculturists on all levels (from the individual farmer to those responsible for regional food supply), as knowledge of potential future climate changes starts to play an increasingly important role in the agricultural decision-making process, such as sowing and harvesting times.

Senna occidentalis Link. (Caesalpiniaceae) imbibition curves for NaCl osmotic potential levels up to 0.6 MPa

An investigation is reported on the statistical model of imbibition curves of the seeds of Senna occidentalis Link. (Caesalpiniaceae), up to Phase II (start of root emission) in osmotic potential levels (0; -0.2; -0.4 and -0.6 MPa), induced NaCl or PEG 6000. The statistical model for both solutions was y = a [1 b exp(-cx)] where y is the fresh matter of seed in g, and x the time of evaluation in h. The analysis of variance of the estimated parameters, showed that with the NaCl solution, the -0.4 and -0.6 MPa levels differed significantly from the 0 and -0.2 MPa levels, and that with the PEG solution, the -0.6 MPa differed from the rest. Prolongation of Phase II occurred as the potential decreased, with both solutions. More reduction in water uptake and prolongation of this phase occurred with the PEG treatment.

Structural evolution of aerogels prepared from TEOS sono-hydrolysis upon heat treatment up to 1100 degrees C

The structural evolution of aerogels prepared from TEOS sono-hydrolysis was studied as a function of the temperature of heat treatment up to 1100 degreesC by means of small angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) and density measurements. The mass fractal structure of the original wet sonogel (with scattering exponent alpha similar to 2.2) apparently transforms to a surface fractal structure in a length scale lesser than similar to1.5 nm, upon the process resulting in aerogel. Such a structural transformation is interpreted by the formation of new particles with characteristic dimension of similar to1.5 nm, with rough boundaries or electronic density fluctuations (or ultra-micropores) in their interior. The structural arrangement of these particles seem to preserve part of mass fractal characteristics of the original wet sonogel, now in a length scale greater than similar to1.5 nm. The electronic density heterogeneities in the particles start to be eliminated at around 800 degreesC and, at 900 degreesC, the particles become perfectly homogeneous, so the structure can be described as a porous structure with a porosity of similar to68% with similar to9.0 nm mean size pores and similar to4.3 nm mean size solid particles. Above 900 degreesC, a vigorous viscous flux sintering process sets in, eliminating most of the porosity and increasing rapidly the bulk density in an aerogel-glass transformation. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Innovation and technology policy (ITP) for catching up: a three phase life cycle framework for industrializing economies

Includes bibliography

Prognosis of patients with HIV-1 infection starting antiretroviral therapy in sub-Saharan Africa: a collaborative analysis of scale-up programmes

Background Prognostic models have been developed for patients infected with HIV-1 who start combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) in high-income countries, but not for patients in sub-Saharan Africa. We developed two prognostic models to estimate the probability of death in patients starting ART in sub-Saharan Africa. Methods We analysed data for adult patients who started ART in four scale-up programmes in Côte d'Ivoire, South Africa, and Malawi from 2004 to 2007. Patients lost to follow-up in the first year were excluded. We used Weibull survival models to construct two prognostic models: one with CD4 cell count, clinical stage, bodyweight, age, and sex (CD4 count model); and one that replaced CD4 cell count with total lymphocyte count and severity of anaemia (total lymphocyte and haemoglobin model), because CD4 cell count is not routinely measured in many African ART programmes. Death from all causes in the first year of ART was the primary outcome. Findings 912 (8·2%) of 11 153 patients died in the first year of ART. 822 patients were lost to follow-up and not included in the main analysis; 10 331 patients were analysed. Mortality was strongly associated with high baseline CD4 cell count (≥200 cells per μL vs <25; adjusted hazard ratio 0·21, 95% CI 0·17–0·27), WHO clinical stage (stages III–IV vs I–II; 3·45, 2·43–4·90), bodyweight (≥60 kg vs <45 kg; 0·23, 0·18–0·30), and anaemia status (none vs severe: 0·27, 0·20–0·36). Other independent risk factors for mortality were low total lymphocyte count, advanced age, and male sex. Probability of death at 1 year ranged from 0·9% (95% CI 0·6–1·4) to 52·5% (43·8–61·7) with the CD4 model, and from 0·9% (0·5–1·4) to 59·6% (48·2–71·4) with the total lymphocyte and haemoglobin model. Both models accurately predict early mortality in patients starting ART in sub-Saharan Africa compared with observed data. Interpretation Prognostic models should be used to counsel patients, plan health services, and predict outcomes for patients with HIV-1 infection in sub-Saharan Africa.

Estimating loss to follow-up in HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy: the effect of the competing risk of death in Zambia and Switzerland

Background Loss to follow-up (LTFU) is common in antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes. Mortality is a competing risk (CR) for LTFU; however, it is often overlooked in cohort analyses. We examined how the CR of death affected LTFU estimates in Zambia and Switzerland. Methods and Findings HIV-infected patients aged ≥18 years who started ART 2004–2008 in observational cohorts in Zambia and Switzerland were included. We compared standard Kaplan-Meier curves with CR cumulative incidence. We calculated hazard ratios for LTFU across CD4 cell count strata using cause-specific Cox models, or Fine and Gray subdistribution models, adjusting for age, gender, body mass index and clinical stage. 89,339 patients from Zambia and 1,860 patients from Switzerland were included. 12,237 patients (13.7%) in Zambia and 129 patients (6.9%) in Switzerland were LTFU and 8,498 (9.5%) and 29 patients (1.6%), respectively, died. In Zambia, the probability of LTFU was overestimated in Kaplan-Meier curves: estimates at 3.5 years were 29.3% for patients starting ART with CD4 cells <100 cells/µl and 15.4% among patients starting with ≥350 cells/µL. The estimates from CR cumulative incidence were 22.9% and 13.6%, respectively. Little difference was found between naïve and CR analyses in Switzerland since only few patients died. The results from Cox and Fine and Gray models were similar: in Zambia the risk of loss to follow-up and death increased with decreasing CD4 counts at the start of ART, whereas in Switzerland there was a trend in the opposite direction, with patients with higher CD4 cell counts more likely to be lost to follow-up. Conclusions In ART programmes in low-income settings the competing risk of death can substantially bias standard analyses of LTFU. The CD4 cell count and other prognostic factors may be differentially associated with LTFU in low-income and high-income settings.

Prognosis of HIV-1-infected patients up to 5 years after initiation of HAART: collaborative analysis of prospective studies

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prognosis over 5 years of HIV-1-infected, treatment-naive patients starting HAART, taking into account the immunological and virological response to therapy. DESIGN: A collaborative analysis of data from 12 cohorts in Europe and North America on 20,379 adults who started HAART between 1995 and 2003. METHODS: Parametric survival models were used to predict the cumulative incidence at 5 years of a new AIDS-defining event or death, and death alone, first from the start of HAART and second from 6 months after the start of HAART. Data were analysed by intention-to-continue-treatment, ignoring treatment changes and interruptions. RESULTS: During 61 798 person-years of follow-up, 1005 patients died and an additional 1303 developed AIDS. A total of 10 046 (49%) patients started HAART either with a CD4 cell count of less than 200 cells/microl or with a diagnosis of AIDS. The 5-year risk of AIDS or death (death alone) from the start of HAART ranged from 5.6 to 77% (1.8-65%), depending on age, CD4 cell count, HIV-1-RNA level, clinical stage, and history of injection drug use. From 6 months the corresponding figures were 4.1-99% for AIDS or death and 1.3-96% for death alone. CONCLUSION: On the basis of data collected routinely in HIV care, prognostic models with high discriminatory power over 5 years were developed for patients starting HAART in industrialized countries. A risk calculator that produces estimates for progression rates at years 1 to 5 after starting HAART is available from www.art-cohort-collaboration.org.

Sendai virus RNA polymerase scanning for mRNA start sites at gene junctions

Mini-genomes expressing two reporter genes and a variable gene junction were used to study Sendai virus RNA polymerase (RdRp) scanning for the mRNA start signal of the downstream gene (gs2). We found that RdRp could scan the template efficiently as long as the initiating uridylate of gs2 (3' UCCCnnUUUC) was preceded by the conserved intergenic region (3' GAA) and the last 3 uridylates of the upstream gene end signal (ge1; 3' AUUCUUUUU). The end of the leader sequence (3' CUAAAA, which precedes gs1) could also be used for gene2 expression, but this sequence was considerably less efficient. Increasing the distance between ge1 and gs2 (up to 200 nt) led to the progressive loss of gene2 expression, in which half of gene2 expression was lost for each 70 nucleotides of intervening sequence. Beyond 200 nt, gene2 expression was lost more slowly. Our results suggest that there may be two populations of RdRp that scan at gene junctions, which can be distinguished by the efficiency with which they can scan the genome template for gs.