934 resultados para SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELS
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Spatial evaluation of Culicidae (Diptera) larvae from different breeding sites: application of a geospatial method and implications for vector control. This study investigates the spatial distribution of urban Culicidae and informs entomological monitoring of species that use artificial containers as larval habitats. Collections of mosquito larvae were conducted in the São Paulo State municipality of Santa Bárbara d' Oeste between 2004 and 2006 during house-to-house visits. A total of 1,891 samples and nine different species were sampled. Species distribution was assessed using the kriging statistical method by extrapolating municipal administrative divisions. The sampling method followed the norms of the municipal health services of the Ministry of Health and can thus be adopted by public health authorities in disease control and delimitation of risk areas. Moreover, this type of survey and analysis can be employed for entomological surveillance of urban vectors that use artificial containers as larval habitat.
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Based on conclusions drawn from general climatic impact assessment in mountain regions, the review synthesizes results relevant to the European Alps published mainly from 1994 onward in the fields of population genetics, ecophysiology, phenology, phytogeography, modeling, paleoecology and vegetation dynamics. Other important factors of global change interacting synergistically with climatic factors are also mentioned, such as atmospheric CO2 concentration, eutrophication, ozone or changes in land-use. Topics addressed are general species distribution and populations (persistence, acclimation, genetic variability, dispersal, fragmentation, plant/animal interaction, species richness, conservation), potential response of vegetation (ecotonal shift - area, physiography - changes in the composition, structural changes), phenology, growth and productivity, and landscape. In conclusion, the European Alps appear to have a natural inertia and thus to tolerate an increase of 1-2 K of mean air temperature as far as plant species and ecosystems are concerned in general. However, the impact of land-use is very likely to negate this buffer in many areas. For a change of the order of 3 K or more, profound changes may be expected.
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Background and Aims Paleoclimatic data indicate that an abrupt climate change occurred at the Eocene-Oligocene (E-O) boundary affecting the distribution of tropical forests on Earth. The same period has seen the emergence of South-East (SE) Asia, caused by the collision of the Eurasian and Australian plates. How the combination of these climatic and geomorphological factors affected the spatio-temporal history of angiosperms is little known. This topic is investigated by using the worldwide sapindaceous clade as a case study. Methods Analyses of divergence time inference, diversification and biogeography (constrained by paleogeography) are applied to a combined plastid and nuclear DNA sequence data set. Biogeographical and diversification analyses are performed over a set of trees to take phylogenetic and dating uncertainty into account. Results are analysed in the context of past climatic fluctuations. Key Results An increase in the number of dispersal events at the E-O boundary is recorded, which intensified during the Miocene. This pattern is associated with a higher rate in the emergence of new genera. These results are discussed in light of the geomorphological importance of SE Asia, which acted as a tropical bridge allowing multiple contacts between areas and additional speciation across landmasses derived from Laurasia and Gondwana. Conclusions This study demonstrates the importance of the combined effect of geomorphological (the emergence of most islands in SE Asia approx. 30 million years ago) and climatic (the dramatic E-O climate change that shifted the tropical belt and reduced sea levels) factors in shaping species distribution within the sapindaceous clade.
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Aim To improve our understanding of how biological communities assemble, we investigated changes in bumblebee communities in space along an elevation gradient. We assessed how much deterministic abiotic and biotic factors shape community assembly. We focused on proboscis length (influencing the species' dietary regime) and phylogenetic relatedness to investigate if competition and environmental filtering occur in more and less productive climates, respectively. Location Western Swiss Alps. Methods We recorded bumblebee species in 149 plots along a 1800-m wide elevation gradient. We contrasted two major clades of bumblebees, a short-tongued and a long-tongued clade. We calculated the phylogenetic and proboscis-length diversity of the bumblebee communities and compared these observed data with a random distribution to detect clustering likely to be caused by environmental filtering or overdispersion likely to be caused by competition. We compared the prevalence of clustered and overdispersed communities along the gradients of plant species richness (biotic) and temperature (abiotic). Results Under colder conditions, where plant species richness is lower and floral resources are scarcer, the clade with shorter proboscides prevails over the clade with longer proboscides, and communities are functionally and phylogenetic clustered. Under warmer conditions, we found phylogenetic but not functional overdispersion in communities. Main conclusions We show for the first time a strong correlation between phylogenetic relatedness, proboscis length and species distribution along temperature and plant richness gradients shaping bumblebee communities. The low temperatures and low levels of plant species richness limit the dispersal of the species from the long-tongued clade, which have more specialized diets, into high-elevation areas. Competition under warmer conditions may produce communities composed of less closely related species that share distinct ecological preferences. Our empirical results corroborate theoretical expectation as well as experiments on the prevalence of deterministic processes in the most severe and most productive parts of environmental gradients.
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Lethal chromosomal frequencies were obtained from three Drosophila subobscura samples from the Mt. Avala (Serbia) population in September 2003 (0.218), June 2004 (0.204) and September 2004 (0.250). These values and those from other Balkan populations studied previously (Petnica, Kamariste, Zanjic and Djerdap) were used to analyze the possible effect of population, year, month and altitude above sea level on lethal chromosomal frequencies. According to ANOVAS no effect were observed. Furthermore, the lethal frequencies of the Balkan populations did not vary according to latitude. This is probably due to the relative proximity and high gene flow between these populations. From a joint study of all the Palearctic D. subobscura populations so far analyzed, it can be deduced that the Balkan populations are located in the central area of the species distribution. Finally, it seems that lethal chromosomal frequencies are a consequence of the genetic structure of the populations.
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Lethal chromosomal frequencies were obtained from three Drosophila subobscura samples from the Mt. Avala (Serbia) population in September 2003 (0.218), June 2004 (0.204) and September 2004 (0.250). These values and those from other Balkan populations studied previously (Petnica, Kamariste, Zanjic and Djerdap) were used to analyze the possible effect of population, year, month and altitude above sea level on lethal chromosomal frequencies. According to ANOVAS no effect were observed. Furthermore, the lethal frequencies of the Balkan populations did not vary according to latitude. This is probably due to the relative proximity and high gene flow between these populations. From a joint study of all the Palearctic D. subobscura populations so far analyzed, it can be deduced that the Balkan populations are located in the central area of the species distribution. Finally, it seems that lethal chromosomal frequencies are a consequence of the genetic structure of the populations.
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Many studies have investigated the impacts that climate change could potentially have on the distribution of plant species, but few have attempted to constrain projections through plant dispersal limitations. Instead, most studies published so far have been using the simplification of considering dispersal as either unlimited or null. However, depending on a species' dispersal capacity, landscape fragmentation, and the rate of climatic change, these assumptions can lead to serious over- or underestimation of a species' future distribution. To quantify the discrepancies between unlimited, realistic, and no dispersal scenarios, we carried out projections of future distribution over the 21st century for 287 mountain plant species in a study area of the Western Swiss Alps. For each species, simulations were run for four dispersal scenarios (unlimited dispersal, no dispersal, realistic dispersal and realistic dispersal with long-distance dispersal events) and under four climate change scenarios. Although simulations accounting for realistic dispersal limitations did significantly differ from those considering dispersal as unlimited or null in terms of projected future distribution, using the unlimited dispersal simplification nevertheless provided good approximations for species extinctions under more moderate climate change scenarios. Overall, simulations accounting for dispersal limitations produced, for our mountainous study area, results that were significantly closer to unlimited dispersal than to no dispersal. Finally, analyzing the temporal pattern of species extinctions over the entire 21st century showed that, due to the possibility of a large number of species shifting their distribution to higher elevation, important species extinctions for our study area might not occur before the 2080-2100 time periods.
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The opportunity to reflect broadly on the accomplishments, prospects, and reach of a field may present itself relatively infrequently. Each biennial meeting of the International Biogeography Society showcases ideas solicited and developed largely during the preceding year, by individuals or teams from across the breadth of the discipline. Here, we highlight challenges, developments, and opportunities in biogeography that were summarized at or emerge from that biennial synthesis. We note the realized and potential impact of rapid data accumulation in several fields, a Renaissance for inter-disciplinary research, the importance of recognizing the evolution-ecology continuum across spatial and temporal scales and at different taxonomic, phylogenetic and functional levels, and re-exploration of classical assumptions and hypotheses using new tools. However, advances are taxonomically and geographically biased, key theoretical frameworks await development of tools for handling, or strategies for simplifying, the biological complexity seen in empirical systems. Current threats to biodiversity require unprecedented integration of knowledge and development of predictive capacity which may enable biogeography to unite its descriptive and hypothetico-deductive arms and establish a greater role within and outside academia
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Past and current climate change has already induced drastic biological changes. We need projections of how future climate change will further impact biological systems. Modeling is one approach to forecast future ecological impacts, but requires data for model parameterization. As collecting new data is costly, an alternative is to use the increasingly available georeferenced species occurrence and natural history databases. Here, we illustrate the use of such databases to assess climate change impacts on mountain flora. We show that these data can be used effectively to derive dynamic impact scenarios, suggesting upward migration of many species and possible extinctions when no suitable habitat is available at higher elevations. Systematically georeferencing all existing natural history collections data in mountain regions could allow a larger assessment of climate change impact on mountain ecosystems in Europe and elsewhere.
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Climate-driven range fluctuations during the Pleistocene have continuously reshaped species distribution leading to populations of contrasting genetic diversity. Contemporary climate change is similarly influencing species distribution and population structure, with important consequences for patterns of genetic diversity and species' evolutionary potential1. Yet few studies assess the impacts of global climatic changes on intraspecific genetic variation2, 3, 4, 5. Here, combining analyses of molecular data with time series of predicted species distributions and a model of diffusion through time over the past 21 kyr, we unravel caribou response to past and future climate changes across its entire Holarctic distribution. We found that genetic diversity is geographically structured with two main caribou lineages, one originating from and confined to Northeastern America, the other originating from Euro-Beringia but also currently distributed in western North America. Regions that remained climatically stable over the past 21 kyr maintained a high genetic diversity and are also predicted to experience higher climatic stability under future climate change scenarios. Our interdisciplinary approach, combining genetic data and spatial analyses of climatic stability (applicable to virtually any taxon), represents a significant advance in inferring how climate shapes genetic diversity and impacts genetic structure.
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Background Dugesia sicula is the only species of its genus not presenting an endemic or restricted distribution within the Mediterranean area. It mostly comprises fissiparous populations (asexual reproduction by body division and regeneration), most likely sexually sterile, and characterized by an extremely low genetic diversity interpreted as the consequence of a recent anthropic expansion. However, its fissiparous reproduction can result in an apparent lack of diversity within the species, since genetic variation within individuals can be as large as between them because most individuals within a population are clones. We have estimated haplotype and nucleotide diversity of cytochrome oxidase I within and among individuals along the species distribution of a broad sample of D. sicula, including asexual and the two only sexual populations known today; and predicted its potential distribution based on climatic variables. Our aim was to determine the centre of colonisation origin, whether the populations are recent, and whether the species is expanding. Results The species presents 3 most frequent haplotypes, differing in a maximum of 11 base pairs. As expected from their fissiparous mode of reproduction, in half of all the analysed localities many individuals have multiple heteroplasmic haplotypes. The distribution of haplotypes is not geographically structured; however, the distribution of haplotypes and heteroplasmic populations shows higher diversity in the central Mediterranean region. The potential distribution predicted by climatic variables based modelling shows a preference for coastal areas and fits well with the observed data. Conclusions The distribution and frequency of the most frequent haplotypes and the presence of heteroplasmic individuals allow us to gain an understanding of the recent history of the species, together with previous knowledge on its phylogenetic relationships and age: The species most probably originated in Africa and dispersed through the central Mediterranean. After one or multiple populations became triploid and fissiparous, the species colonized the Mediterranean basin, likely both by its own means and helped by human activities. Its present distribution practically fulfils its potential distribution as modelled with climatic variables. Its prevalence in coastal regions with higher water temperatures predicts a likely future expansion to northern and more interior areas following the increase in temperatures due to climate change.
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We propose a multivariate approach to the study of geographic species distribution which does not require absence data. Building on Hutchinson's concept of the ecological niche, this factor analysis compares, in the multidimensional space of ecological variables, the distribution of the localities where the focal species was observed to a reference set describing the whole study area. The first factor extracted maximizes the marginality of the focal species, defined as the ecological distance between the species optimum and the mean habitat within the reference area. The other factors maximize the specialization of this focal species, defined as the ratio of the ecological variance in mean habitat to that observed for the focal species. Eigenvectors and eigenvalues are readily interpreted and can be used to build habitat-suitability maps. This approach is recommended in Situations where absence data are not available (many data banks), unreliable (most cryptic or rare species), or meaningless (invaders). We provide an illustration and validation of the method for the alpine ibex, a species reintroduced in Switzerland which presumably has not yet recolonized its entire range.
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Tutkimuksen tavoitteena on selvittää tarvitseeko Starkki Oy Ab keskusvarastotoimintoja rakennustyömaan toimitusketjussa. Tutkimuksen teoriaosa esittelee reagoivan toimitusketjun hallinnan menetelmiä ja jakelun merkitystä toimitusketjussa. Lisäksi teoriaosassa esitellään kumppanuus-ajattelun perusteita. Empiriaosassa esitellään kohdeyritys, rakennustyömaan logistiikkaa tällä hetkellä ja pohditaan kolmea erilaista yrityksen jakelurakennetta. Tutkimus on kuvaileva. Rakennustyömaan logistiikan voidaantodeta jäävän helposti materiaalitoimittajien vastuulle. Vaikka materiaalitoimittajat pysyvätkin yleensä sovitussa aikataulussa, ei rakennustyömaa itsessään siinä välttämättä onnistu. Tämä johtaa rakentamisen logistiikan hallitsemattomuuteen ja rakentamisen tehokkuuden heikkenemiseen. Ongelma voidaan kuitenkin välttäätehokkaalla informaation jakamisella ja rakennustyömaan toimitusketjun läpi ulottuvalla yhteistyöllä.
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The perceived low levels of genetic diversity, poor interspecific competitive and defensive ability, and loss of dispersal capacities of insular lineages have driven the view that oceanic islands are evolutionary dead ends. Focusing on the Atlantic bryophyte flora distributed across the archipelagos of the Azores, Madeira, the Canary Islands, Western Europe, and northwestern Africa, we used an integrative approach with species distribution modeling and population genetic analyses based on approximate Bayesian computation to determine whether this view applies to organisms with inherent high dispersal capacities. Genetic diversity was found to be higher in island than in continental populations, contributing to mounting evidence that, contrary to theoretical expectations, island populations are not necessarily genetically depauperate. Patterns of genetic variation among island and continental populations consistently fitted those simulated under a scenario of de novo foundation of continental populations from insular ancestors better than those expected if islands would represent a sink or a refugium of continental biodiversity. We, suggest that the northeastern Atlantic archipelagos have played a key role as a stepping stone for transoceanic migrants. Our results challenge the traditional notion that oceanic islands are the end of the colonization road and illustrate the significant role of oceanic islands as reservoirs of novel biodiversity for the assembly of continental floras.
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Species composition and distribution of marine benthic communities from La Herradura (Alboran Sea, western Mediterranean) are described to characterise its rocky and sedimentary bottoms bionomically. Rocky bottoms were studied by means of several underwater transects and soft bottoms with fixed stations along a bathymetric gradient. The study of the floristic and faunistic composition of the rocky benthic communities highlights depth as the main axis of variation. Factorial Correspondence Analysis segregates deep-water communities below 25 m depth (circalittoral communities) from shallower communities (axis I), and communities thriving between 5 and 25 m depth (lower infralittoral communities) from communities thriving close to the surface (shallow infralittoral communities) (axis II). The study of the sedimentary bottoms also suggests that depth, together with physical sedimentary properties, is the main axis of variation in species distribution. Floristic and faunistic records show the particular composition of La Herradura benthic communities, compared to Mediterranean and Atlantic ones. Mixing of Mediterranean and Atlantic waters, together with deep water upwelling episodes typical of this area, probably determine the peculiar composition of the benthic communities